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TXST

Texas State 31 at Arkansas State 77

ARST
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+0.1ARST 99.8%Melique Straker 87 Yd InterceptionReturn (Dominic Zvada Kick)AWAY 24 - HOME 70 · Q4 12:20
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:20 · Melique Straker 87 Yd Interception Return (Dominic Zvada Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Home team on offense+34.9Score differential+28.6Blowout margin+17.3Pregame prior−2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.1Garbage-time factor+7.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:16: TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 18 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +8.4 pts (now 60%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:14: Ja'Quez Cross run for 42 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +8.4 pts (now 54%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:01: Ja'Quez Cross run for 15 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +10.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:52: Ja'Quez Cross run for 57 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +9.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:39: Cedric Hawkins run for 9 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +16.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TXST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 8:45ARST 4th & 1 at TXST 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    42.0%−0.7
    32% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:50TXST 4th & 12 at ARST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:05TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:13ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:43TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:12ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 40, up 4
    Close callPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:45TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:02TXST 4th & 13 at ARST 42, down 18
    Numbers favored punt by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.6%−1.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    18.8%−1.5
    30% to make
    Punt
    20.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:53TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 42, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:57TXST 4th & 1 at ARST 48, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:57TXST 4th & 4 at ARST 23, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:20TXST 4th & 6 at ARST 20, down 40
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:19ARST 4th & 4 at TXST 29, up 46
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 10 of 10TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:17TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:45ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:03ARST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:16TXST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:14ARST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:01ARST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:52ARST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 12:39ARST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 8:20ARST Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 5:57ARST Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 0:12TXST Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 12:20ARST Touchdown, up 46 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 10:39ARST Touchdown, up 52 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 6:19TXST Touchdown, down 47 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:4361% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
39.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the TXST 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+11
39.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+1
39.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 1 yd to the ARST 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+3
39.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 3 yds to the ARST 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+12
39.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 12 yds to the ARST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
39.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 4 yds to the ARST 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+10
39.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 10 yds to the ARST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
39.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the ARST 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
39.5%
Arkansas State Penalty, Personal Foul (Ethan Hassler) to the ARST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
39.5%
Texas State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ARST 13Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+9
39.5%
TJ Finley run for 9 yds to the ARST 4Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
38.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:2340% → 42%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
50
+2
39.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the TXST 48Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
39.9%
Arkansas State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jaylen Raynor) to the ARST 48Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+11
39.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 11 yds to the TXST 41Similar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+41
41.8%
Zak Wallace run for 41 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3FG
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:5058% → 58%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
41.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 10 yds to the TXST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+45
41.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 45 yds to the ARST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
41.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 25Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 12
OPP 25
0
41.3%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 12
OPP 25
0
41.7%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:50
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+43
41.9%
Mason Shipley 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4TD
15 plays · 81 yds · 4:4141% → 47%
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
41.1%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the ARST 23Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-10
41.1%
RAYNOR, Jaylen pass short to the right incomplete thrown to the ASU28. PENALTY ASU Holding on BAYER, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the ASU23 to the ASU13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 16
OWN 13
+6
40.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 6 yds to the ARST 19Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+11
40.4%
Jaylen Raynor run for 11 yds to the ARST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
41.0%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+31
41.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 31 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
42.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+13
42.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 13 yds to the TXST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
43.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the TXST 18Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+5
43.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the TXST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
43.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the TXST 8Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
43.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for no gain to the TXST 8Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
47.4%
Zak Wallace run for 8 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4852% → 51%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
47.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 24Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
47.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 7 yds to the TXST 31Similar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
47.6%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:05
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
48.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 54 yds , Courtney Jackson returns for no gain to the ARST 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5245% → 45%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-6
45.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 6 yards to the ARST 21Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 16
OWN 21
+1
45.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 1 yd to the ARST 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 22
+8
44.7%
Cedric Hawkins run for 8 yds to the ARST 30Similar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
44.5%
William Przystup punt for 67 yds , Kole Wilson returns for no gain to the TXST 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 1:5751% → 60%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
49.3%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-2
49.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 22Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 12
OWN 22
+20
50.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 20 yds to the TXST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+27
47.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 27 yds to the ARST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
48.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for 13 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
39.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 18 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0241% → 54%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.2%
Zak Wallace run for no gain to the ARST 25Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
41.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 14 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-8
42.1%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Dominique Ratcliff for a loss of 8 yards to the ARST 31Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 18
OWN 31
+1
41.0%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ARST 32Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 17
OWN 32
+11
40.4%
RAYNOR, Jaylen sacked for a loss of 12 yards at the ASU20 (BELL, Ben). PENALTY TXS Personal Foul on EDWARDS, JR., Alonzo enforced 11 yards from the ASU32 to the ASU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
42.8%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+9
45.2%
Zak Wallace run for 9 yds to the TXST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
53.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 42 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 2:3147% → 44%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 28Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
52.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 6 yds to the TXST 34Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
52.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
52.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 9 yds to the TXST 45Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+7
50.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for 7 yds to the ARST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
50.3%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-4
50.8%
TJ Finley sacked by Charles Willekes and Thurman Geathers for a loss of 4 yards to the TXST 48Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 14
OWN 48
0
52.9%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:43
4TH & 14
OWN 48
0
56.1%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:3154% → 55%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
53.7%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 20Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+14
53.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 14 yds to the ARST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
53.9%
Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 31Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 13
OWN 31
0
53.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 13
OWN 31
+9
52.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 9 yds to the ARST 40Similar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
54.5%
William Przystup punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kole Wilson at the TXST 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11FUMBLE
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
58.7%
Donerio Davenport run for a loss of 3 yards to the TXST 15 Donerio Davenport fumbled, recovered by ARST Keyron Crawford [NHSG] DAVENPORT, Donerio rush to the left for a loss of 3 yards, DAVENPORT, Donerio fumbled at TXS11 , recovered by ASU CRAWFORD, Keyron at the TXS15, returned 0 yards to the TXS15, End of Play, clock 04:05.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12TD
1 play · 15 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
68.9%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 15 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1631% → 28%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
69.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for a loss of 3 yards to the TXST 22Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+1
70.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 23Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+6
70.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 6 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
72.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 0:5373% → 82%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
73.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 2 yds to the ARST 35Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+8
72.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 8 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
82.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 57 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15END OF HALF
11 plays · 70 yds · 1:5024% → 16%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.1%
TJ Finley pass complete to Joey Hobert for 5 yds to the TXST 30Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
75.8%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
76.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 6 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
75.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 10 yds to the TXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
74.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 15 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
72.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for no gain to the ARST 39Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-10
73.1%
Texas State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nash Jones) to the ARST 48Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 19
OPP 48
+8
75.6%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 8 yds to the ARST 40Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 11
OPP 40
-2
84.1%
TJ Finley sacked by Nate Martey for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 42Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 13
OPP 42
+37
84.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 37 yds to the ARST 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:1679% → 95%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
79.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the ARST 47Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+3
78.9%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
50
+19
78.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 19 yds to the TXST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
79.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 13 yds to the TXST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
78.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for 9 yds to the TXST 9Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+9
94.6%
Cedric Hawkins run for 9 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:4212% → 10%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
88.4%
Ismail Mahdi run for 9 yds to the TXST 28Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+15
87.7%
MAHDI, Ismail rush up the middle for a loss of 2 yards to the TXS26 (HARDIMAN, Tim). PENALTY ASU Personal Foul on HARDIMAN, Tim enforced 15 yards from the TXS28 to the TXS43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
87.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 45Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 8
OWN 45
-3
87.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 3 yards to the TXST 42Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 11
OWN 42
0
88.5%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
90.1%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:3395% → 99%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
94.6%
Cedric Hawkins run for 10 yds to the ARST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
94.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+12
94.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 12 yds to the ARST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
95.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 7 yds to the ARST 49Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+43
95.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 43 yds to the TXST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
95.4%
Cedric Hawkins run for 1 yd to the TXST 7Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.8%
Cedric Hawkins run for 7 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 2:162% → 1%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
97.8%
Arkansas State Penalty, Targeting on HODGES, Justin enforced (Justin Hodges) to the ARST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
97.6%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
97.6%
Donerio Davenport run for 1 yd to the ARST 33Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+13
97.7%
TJ Finley run for 13 yds to the ARST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+91
99.1%
Trevian Thomas 91 Yd Fumble Return (Dominic Zvada Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:451% → 1%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.3%
TJ Finley pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 9 yds to the TXST 34Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
99.2%
Donerio Davenport run for 9 yds to the TXST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.2%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
99.3%
Donerio Davenport run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 3
50
+2
99.2%
Donerio Davenport run for 2 yds to the ARST 48Similar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+9
99.2%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 9 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
99.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Konner Fox for 9 yds to the ARST 30Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 1
OPP 30
-1
99.1%
Jahmyl Jeter run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 31Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+2
99.1%
Donerio Davenport run for 2 yds to the ARST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.1%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
99.2%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+6
99.2%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 6 yds to the ARST 23Similar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+16
99.0%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 16 yds to the ARST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.5%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 7 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21INT TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:400% → 0%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 7 yds to the TXST 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+3
99.7%
Donerio Davenport run for 3 yds to the TXST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
99.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Kole Wilson for 12 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.7%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+19
99.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 19 yds to the ARST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.6%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
99.7%
TJ Finley pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 6 yds to the ARST 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 18
-2
99.6%
Donerio Davenport run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 20Similar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 6
OPP 20
-87
99.8%
Melique Straker 87 Yd Interception Return (Dominic Zvada Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22INT TD
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:410% → 0%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
Donerio Davenport run for 1 yd to the TXST 26Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
99.8%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 8 yds to the TXST 34Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+12
99.8%
Donerio Davenport run for 12 yds to the TXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
99.8%
FINLEY, TJ pass deep up the middle complete for 24 yards to DAWN, JR., Chris caught at the ASU31 and advanced to the ASU31 (THOMAS, Trevian), 1ST DOWN (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY TXS Holding on JOHNSON, Caleb ASU Targeting on THOMAS, Trevian , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-50
99.9%
Dane Motley 50 Yd Interception Return (Dominic Zvada Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:200% → 0%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.9%
Donerio Davenport run for 16 yds to the TXST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
99.9%
Texas State Penalty, False Start (Kalil Alexander) to the TXST 36Similar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 15
OWN 36
0
99.9%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+17
99.9%
Donerio Davenport run for 17 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
99.9%
FINLEY, TJ pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HAWKINS, Ashtyn broken up by SMITH, Eddie at the ASU1. PENALTY ASU Offsides on ALSTON, Brian enforced 5 yards from the ASU47 to the ASU42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 5
OPP 42
+3
99.9%
Donerio Davenport run for 3 yds to the ARST 39Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+5
99.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 5 yds to the ARST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.9%
TJ Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
99.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Titus Lyons for 5 yds to the ARST 8Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+5
99.9%
TJ Finley pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 5 yds to the ARST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Kole Wilson 3 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Mason Shipley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24END OF GAME
9 plays · 45 yds · 6:19100% → 100%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Mike Sharpe II run for no gain to the ARST 31Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-1
99.9%
Mike Sharpe II run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 30Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+22
99.9%
Jaxon Dailey run for 22 yds to the TXST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
99.9%
Mike Sharpe II run for 13 yds to the TXST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.9%
Mike Sharpe II run for 3 yds to the TXST 32Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
99.9%
Mike Sharpe II run for no gain to the TXST 32Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+3
99.9%
Mike Sharpe II run for 3 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+8
99.9%
Mike Sharpe II run for 8 yds to the TXST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
100.0%
[NHSG] Kneel down by ASU at TXS24 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:39
Cedric Hawkins run for 9 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+16
TD · Q2 4:01
Ja'Quez Cross run for 15 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+10.2
TD · Q2 1:52
Ja'Quez Cross run for 57 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com