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UL

Louisiana 17 at Arkansas State 37

ARST
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:48 · Zeon Chriss pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 5 yds to the ARST 14 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorDefense timeouts
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 80Pregame prior−12.8Home team on offense+7.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.6Score differential+4.3Garbage-time factor+1.0Defense timeouts+4.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:14: Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +6.4 pts (now 40%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 11:30: Dominic Zvada 41 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +8.5 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Lead backed by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q2 4:26: Dominic Zvada 20 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +4.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:25: Zeon Chriss run for 1 yd for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +13.0 pts (now 56%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:08: Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +18.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:14UL 4th & 1 at UL 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:14UL 4th & 17 at UL 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:30ARST 4th & 11 at UL 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    42.8%−3.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:52UL 4th & 7 at UL 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:52ARST 4th & 4 at UL 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    48.4%−1.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    48.6%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:26ARST 4th & 3 at UL 3, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%−1.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−8.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:48UL 4th & 3 at ARST 19, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    35.2%−0.6
    77% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−5.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:57UL 4th & 4 at ARST 8, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−0.2
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−5.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:05ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:22UL 4th & 6 at UL 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−1.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:42ARST 4th & 6 at UL 45, up 10
    Close callPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    79.4%−1.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:38ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 39, up 10
    Close callPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:50UL 4th & 13 at UL 19, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:16ARST 4th & 13 at UL 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:14ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:59UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:14ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:25UL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:08ARST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:02ARST Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4272% → 72%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
27.6%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
27.6%
Jacob Kibodi run for 4 yds to the UL 20Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 6
OWN 20
-5
27.6%
Louisiana Penalty, False Start (Peter LeBlanc) to the UL 15Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+10
27.6%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 10 yds to the UL 25Similar
Q1 13:14
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
28.4%
Thomas Leo punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 4:0028% → 33%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
28.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
28.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+13
28.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 13 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
28.5%
Zak Wallace run for 7 yds to the UL 48Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+8
28.5%
Zak Wallace run for 8 yds to the UL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
28.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kevin Diaz for 5 yds to the UL 35Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+6
28.6%
Zak Wallace run for 6 yds to the UL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
28.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 5 yds to the UL 24Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+6
28.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for 6 yds to the UL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
32.7%
Zak Wallace run for 18 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3TD
1 play · 87 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+87
30.7%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 87 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 4:4531% → 40%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
30.6%
Cedric Hawkins run for 6 yds to the ARST 41Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-10
31.0%
HAWKINS, Cedric rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the ASU47 (LEWIS, Tyrone). PENALTY ASU Holding on SMITH, Noah enforced 10 yards from the ASU41 to the ASU31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+5
30.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 5 yds to the ARST 36Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+11
30.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 11 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
31.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 4 yds to the UL 49Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+6
31.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for 6 yds to the UL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+23
31.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 23 yds to the UL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
31.3%
DeAndra Burns Jr. run for 1 yd to the UL 19Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+8
33.1%
Zak Wallace run for 8 yds to the UL 11Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+4
32.7%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the UL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
33.1%
Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the UL 2Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:0064% → 61%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
36.0%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 11 yds to the UL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
35.6%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 3 yds to the UL 39Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+17
35.5%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 17 yds to the ARST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
34.9%
Dre'lyn Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARST 47Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+1
35.5%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Neal Johnson for 1 yd to the ARST 46Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 12
OPP 46
-5
35.7%
Louisiana Penalty, False Start (Jasper Williams) to the UL 49Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 17
OWN 49
0
36.1%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 17
OWN 49
0
39.2%
Thomas Leo punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 4:4441% → 51%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
41.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+8
41.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 8 yds to the ARST 22Similar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+5
40.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the ARST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
41.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 4 yds to the ARST 31Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
42.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for no gain to the ARST 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+24
41.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 24 yds to the UL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
43.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
43.2%
Jaylen Raynor run for 11 yds to the UL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
43.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Cedric Hawkins for 11 yds to the UL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
43.6%
Cedric Hawkins run for 2 yds to the UL 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+6
43.4%
Cedric Hawkins run for 6 yds to the UL 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 15
-5
42.6%
Arkansas State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UL 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-4
42.7%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Jordan Lawson and Kendre' Gant for a loss of 4 yards to the UL 24Similar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+41
51.3%
Dominic Zvada 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5551% → 49%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
49.1%
Jacob Kibodi run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 24Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
49.3%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Terrance Carter for 4 yds to the UL 28Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
49.6%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:52
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
51.4%
Thomas Leo punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8FG
15 plays · 70 yds · 5:2656% → 62%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
56.3%
Cedric Hawkins run for 16 yds to the ARST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
57.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for 9 yds to the UL 48Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+4
57.6%
Cedric Hawkins run for 4 yds to the UL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
57.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
57.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for 6 yds to the UL 38Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 4
OPP 38
0
57.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:52
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+5
56.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 5 yds to the UL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
57.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
63.7%
Cedric Hawkins run for no gain to the UL 33Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+24
62.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 24 yds to the UL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
60.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 5 yds to the UL 4Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
58.8%
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the UL 3Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
57.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
62.1%
Dominic Zvada 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:2336% → 38%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
63.7%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 13 yds to the UL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
63.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 15 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
61.0%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Robert Williams for 19 yds to the ARST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
59.7%
Dre'lyn Washington run for no gain to the ARST 26Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
60.2%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 5 yds to the ARST 21Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+2
65.3%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 2 yds to the ARST 19Similar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+5
66.3%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 5 yds to the ARST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
64.3%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 2 yds to the ARST 12Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+2
64.3%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Terrance Carter for 2 yds to the ARST 10Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+2
65.3%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Terrance Carter for 2 yds to the ARST 8Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+24
61.9%
Kenneth Almendares 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:5766% → 63%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.4%
[NH] Kneel down by ASU at ASU24 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
62.7%
[NH] Kneel down by ASU at ASU23 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:5560% → 62%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
60.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 4 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
60.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 8 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
60.8%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ARST 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+2
60.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 2 yds to the ARST 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
60.1%
Jaylen Raynor run for no gain to the ARST 40Similar
Q3 12:05
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
62.3%
William Przystup punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 5:4038% → 56%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
62.5%
Jacob Kibodi run for 7 yds to the UL 30Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+4
61.3%
Zeon Chriss run for 4 yds to the UL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
61.6%
Jacob Kibodi run for 1 yd to the UL 35Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+15
61.7%
CHRISS, Zeon pass short to the left incomplete intended for BERNARD, Jacob thrown to the LA40. PENALTY ASU Roughing the Passer on CRAWFORD, Keyron enforced 15 yards from the LA35 to the LA50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
50
+4
59.5%
Zylan Perry run for 4 yds to the ARST 46Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
59.6%
Zeon Chriss run for 3 yds to the ARST 43Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+3
59.8%
Zeon Chriss run for 3 yds to the ARST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
59.5%
Jacob Kibodi run for 10 yds to the ARST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
58.0%
CHRISS, Zeon pass to the right incomplete intended for BROUSSARD, Harvey thrown to the ASU20 (After review, play stands as called on the field). PENALTY ASU Targeting on STRAKER, Melique enforced 15 yards from the ASU30 to the ASU15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
57.4%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Terrance Carter for 2 yds to the ARST 13Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
57.4%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+3
59.0%
CHRISS, Zeon scrambles to the right for a loss of 3 yards to the ASU16 (GEATHERS, Thurman). PENALTY ASU Face mask on GEATHERS, Thurman enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the ASU13 to the ASU7 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
57.4%
Jacob Kibodi run for 5 yds to the ARST 1Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.4%
Zeon Chriss run for 1 yd for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1754% → 77%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
54.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 7 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
55.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
53.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Zak Wallace for 4 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
55.4%
Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the ARST 41Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
57.3%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ARST 43Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+13
56.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 13 yds to the UL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
58.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 12 yds to the UL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
58.9%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 12 yds to the UL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+16
58.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 16 yds to the UL 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
58.9%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the UL 2Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4228% → 21%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
72.0%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
72.4%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 4 yds to the UL 24Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+5
73.3%
Zeon Chriss run for 5 yds to the UL 29Similar
Q3 2:04
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-5
72.8%
Louisiana Penalty, False Start (AJ Gillie) to the UL 24Similar
Q3 0:22
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
78.7%
Thomas Leo punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 1:1883% → 85%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
83.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for 9 yds to the ARST 42Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+9
84.3%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 9 yds to the UL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
84.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
84.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for 4 yds to the UL 45Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
83.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:42
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
84.7%
William Przystup punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16INT
14 plays · 63 yds · 3:2921% → 16%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
79.1%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 4 yds to the UL 14Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 6
OWN 14
0
83.5%
Zeon Chriss run for no gain to the UL 14Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+15
84.5%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Neal Johnson for 15 yds to the UL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
82.6%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+11
83.2%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Kaleb Carter for 11 yds to the UL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
81.3%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+13
82.1%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Harvey Broussard for 13 yds to the ARST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
79.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 3 yds to the ARST 44Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+16
79.9%
FIELDS, Chandler pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SMITH, Tavion thrown to the ASU28. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on THOMAS, Trevian enforced at the spot of the foul for 16 yards to the ASU28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
77.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 1 yd to the ARST 27Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
78.3%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
84.3%
Chandler Fields pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 3:3594% → 96%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
93.5%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ARST 14Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+18
93.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 18 yds to the ARST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
93.3%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 31Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+6
93.0%
Zak Wallace run for 6 yds to the ARST 37Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+2
93.0%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the ARST 39Similar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
96.4%
William Przystup punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:489% → 6%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
91.4%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 1 yd to the UL 13Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 9
OWN 13
-6
91.4%
Chandler Fields sacked by Cam Jeffery for a loss of 6 yards to the UL 7Similar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 15
OWN 7
+15
90.6%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 15 yds to the UL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-8
91.3%
Chandler Fields sacked by Keyron Crawford for a loss of 8 yards to the UL 14Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 18
OWN 14
+5
91.4%
Chandler Fields run for 5 yds to the UL 19Similar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 13
OWN 19
0
92.0%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 13
OWN 19
0
93.7%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19FG
11 plays · 6 yds · 2:2698% → 99%
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
97.8%
Zak Wallace run for 9 yds to the UL 10Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 1
OPP 10
0
98.3%
Zak Wallace run for no gain to the UL 10Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+7
98.2%
Zak Wallace run for 7 yds to the UL 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-11
98.5%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 11 yards to the UL 14 Jaylen Raynor fumbled, recovered by ARST Jaylen Raynor [NHSG] QB Keeper RAYNOR, Jaylen rush up the middle for a loss of 11 yards, RAYNOR, Jaylen fumbled at LA13 forced by GANT, Kendre', recovered by ASU RAYNOR, Jaylen at the LA14, returned 0 yards to the LA14, End of Play.Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
98.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for no gain to the UL 14Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+1
98.7%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the UL 13Similar
Q4 1:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
99.4%
Dominic Zvada 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · -8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
99.9%
Javante Mackey 16 Yd Fumble Return (Dominic Zvada Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21END OF GAME
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:530% → 0%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
99.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Terrance Carter for 7 yds to the UL 36Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+8
99.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 8 yds to the UL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
99.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Kaleb Carter for 8 yds to the ARST 48Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+11
99.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Neal Johnson for 11 yds to the ARST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:08
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+18.4
TD · Q3 6:25
Zeon Chriss run for 1 yd for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
-13
FG · Q2 11:30
Dominic Zvada 41 yd FG GOOD
+8.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com