Try the model
JMU

James Madison 42 at Georgia State 14

GAST
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Center Parc Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadJMU aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreJMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:23 · Ke'Marion Baldwin run for no gain to the GAST 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Home team on offense−57.1Score differential−41.6Garbage-time factor−24.1Pregame prior+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−11.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:09: Jordan McCloud run for 5 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +10.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:19: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ty Son Lawton for 11 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +13.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:25: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Zach Horton for 11 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +10.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:43: Darren Grainger run for 58 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK) — GAST win probability +10.4 pts (now 16%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:10: Jordan McCloud run for 1 yd for a TD (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +7.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9JMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:02GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:34GAST 4th & 2 at JMU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    35.8%−0.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:05GAST 4th & 3 at JMU 15, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.2%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:48JMU 4th & 12 at GAST 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    57.9%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:08GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:27JMU 4th & 12 at JMU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:58GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:15GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−2.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:57GAST 4th & 16 at GAST 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:36GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:50GAST 4th & 6 at JMU 46, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:23JMU 4th & 1 at GAST 16, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2JMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:58JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:34GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:09JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:19JMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:25JMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:43GAST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:10JMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:41JMU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:5844% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
43.7%
Georgia State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Montavious Cunningham) to the GAST 31Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 4
OWN 31
-5
43.7%
Marcus Carroll run for a loss of 5 yards to the GAST 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
43.7%
Darren Grainger run for 1 yd to the GAST 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
43.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Marcus Carroll for no gain to the GAST 27Similar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
44.1%
Kade Loggins punt for 31 yds, downed at the JMU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 2:0456% → 57%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
44.1%
Kaelon Black run for 2 yds to the JMU 44Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+7
44.0%
Kaelon Black run for 7 yds to the GAST 49Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+32
44.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 32 yds to the GAST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
42.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Taji Hudson for 17 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:1543% → 46%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
43.4%
Marcus Carroll run for a loss of 3 yards to the GAST 30Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+19
43.3%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 19 yds to the GAST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
43.7%
Marcus Carroll run for 13 yds to the JMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
43.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jacari Carter for 4 yds to the JMU 34Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+3
43.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the JMU 31Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+1
43.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the JMU 30Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+30
45.7%
Darren Grainger run for 30 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 4INT
3 plays · 20 yds · 1:0555% → 55%
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
45.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ty Son Lawton for 11 yds to the JMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
44.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 1
50
0
44.6%
Jordan McCloud pass intercepted Bryquice Brown at the GSU35. Brown return for 43 yards to the JMU22 Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5MISSED FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1747% → 46%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
46.7%
Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the JMU 22Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
46.7%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+7
46.4%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 7 yds to the JMU 15Similar
Q1 6:05
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+33
46.4%
Liam Rickman 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 6MISSED FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 4:1754% → 53%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
45.8%
Ty Son Lawton run for 4 yds to the JMU 24Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+9
45.8%
Ty Son Lawton run for 9 yds to the JMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
45.8%
Ty Son Lawton run for 5 yds to the JMU 38Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+10
45.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 10 yds to the JMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+30
45.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 30 yds to the GAST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
44.6%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the GAST 21Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 9
OPP 21
-3
44.6%
Kaelon Black run for a loss of 3 yards to the GAST 24Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 12
OPP 24
0
45.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 12
OPP 24
+41
46.6%
Camden Wise 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:4047% → 47%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
47.3%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the GAST 25Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+14
47.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 14 yds to the GAST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
47.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the GAST 40Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+1
47.9%
Darren Grainger run for 1 yd to the GAST 41Similar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
47.3%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:08
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
47.1%
Kade Loggins punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 3:3353% → 52%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
46.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Zach Horton for 2 yds to the JMU 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-4
46.6%
Jordan McCloud sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the JMU 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+14
47.5%
Jordan McCloud run for 14 yds to the JMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
45.8%
Ty Son Lawton run for 1 yd to the JMU 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-5
45.9%
MCCLOUD, Jordan pass to the left complete for 9 yards to SARRATT, Elijah caught at the JMU50 and advanced to the JMU50 (PRINGLE, Gavin). PENALTY JMU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on MILLER, Carter enforced 5 yards from the JMU41 to the JMU36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+2
46.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Zach Horton for 2 yds to the JMU 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 38
0
46.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
48.4%
Ryan Hanson punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:2949% → 49%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
48.6%
Darren Grainger run for 6 yds to the GAST 18Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 4
OWN 18
-1
48.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 17Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+23
47.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 23 yds to the GAST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
50.0%
Darren Grainger run for 7 yds to the GAST 47Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
50.6%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-3
49.9%
Marcus Carroll run for a loss of 3 yards to the GAST 44Similar
Q2 8:58
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
49.1%
Kade Loggins punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 10TD
17 plays · 86 yds · 7:4952% → 69%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
47.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 6 yds to the JMU 20Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+6
47.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 6 yds to the JMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
47.6%
Ty Son Lawton run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 24Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+20
47.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 20 yds to the JMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
45.6%
Ty Son Lawton run for 4 yds to the JMU 48Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+7
45.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 7 yds to the GAST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
45.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Latrele Palmer for 3 yds to the GAST 42Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+2
45.1%
Latrele Palmer run for 2 yds to the GAST 40Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+7
45.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 7 yds to the GAST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
44.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
44.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for 11 yds to the GAST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
44.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ty Son Lawton for 4 yds to the GAST 18Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+6
42.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ty Son Lawton for 6 yds to the GAST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
42.1%
Jordan McCloud run for 7 yds to the GAST 5Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
31.1%
Jordan McCloud run for 5 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5436% → 35%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
36.2%
Darren Grainger run for 6 yds to the GAST 31Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
37.5%
Darren Grainger run for 2 yds to the GAST 33Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-7
37.6%
Darren Grainger sacked by Mikail Kamara for a loss of 7 yards to the GAST 26Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
35.4%
Kade Loggins punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:1569% → 67%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
31.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-5
31.8%
James Madison Penalty, False Start (Reggie Brown) to the JMU 48Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+4
34.6%
Jordan McCloud run for 4 yds to the GAST 48Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 48
0
32.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:4166% → 82%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
34.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for 2 yds to the JMU 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
34.2%
Ty Son Lawton run for 10 yds to the JMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
33.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Zach Horton for 7 yds to the JMU 44Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
32.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+6
32.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
50
+7
31.8%
Jordan McCloud run for 7 yds to the GAST 43Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+3
31.6%
Latrele Palmer run for 3 yds to the GAST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+27
31.8%
Jordan McCloud run for 27 yds to the GAST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
31.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for 2 yds to the GAST 11Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
31.4%
Jordan McCloud run for no gain to the GAST 11Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+11
17.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ty Son Lawton for 11 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2221% → 19%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
21.3%
Marcus Carroll run for a loss of 5 yards to the GAST 20Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-1
20.9%
Darren Grainger run for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 19Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
20.5%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
19.3%
Kade Loggins punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 4:3282% → 96%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
18.1%
Ty Son Lawton run for 1 yd to the JMU 32Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-5
18.1%
James Madison Penalty, False Start (Tyler Stephens) to the JMU 27Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 14
OWN 27
+7
18.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 7 yds to the JMU 34Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-10
18.4%
James Madison Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GAST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
16.8%
Ty Son Lawton run for 5 yds to the GAST 32Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+14
16.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Yamir Knight for 14 yds to the GAST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
14.2%
Ty Son Lawton run for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 19Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+8
13.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Zach Horton for 8 yds to the GAST 11Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+11
3.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Zach Horton for 11 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:426% → 16%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
5.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 17 yds to the GAST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
5.9%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
5.8%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+58
16.2%
Darren Grainger run for 58 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:3386% → 98%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
13.6%
Ty Son Lawton run for 3 yds to the JMU 38Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+14
12.9%
Jordan McCloud run for 4 yds to the GAST 42 for a 1ST down Georgia State Penalty, Defensive Holding (TEAM) to the GAST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
12.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ty Son Lawton for 14 yds to the GAST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
12.3%
Ty Son Lawton run for 8 yds to the GAST 26Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 2
OPP 26
0
11.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+4
10.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 4 yds to the GAST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
10.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for 14 yds to the GAST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
10.4%
Jordan McCloud run for 7 yds to the GAST 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
10.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for no gain to the GAST 1Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.4%
Jordan McCloud run for 1 yd for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:343% → 3%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
3.0%
Darren Grainger run for a loss of 5 yards to the GAST 20Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+10
3.0%
GRAINGER, Darren pass to the left incomplete intended for CARTER, Jacari thrown to the GSU30. PENALTY JMU Holding on PONDS, D'Angelo enforced 10 yards from the GSU20 to the GSU30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
3.0%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 5 yds to the GAST 35Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-3
3.2%
Marcus Carroll run for a loss of 3 yards to the GAST 32Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
3.0%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:36
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
2.7%
Kade Loggins punt for 51 yds, downed at the JMU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 3:5598% → 100%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
2.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ty Son Lawton for 11 yds to the JMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+24
2.3%
Jordan McCloud run for 24 yds to the GAST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
1.8%
Ty Son Lawton run for 19 yds to the GAST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
1.5%
Sammy Malignaggi run for 3 yds to the GAST 26Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+15
1.5%
Sammy Malignaggi run for 15 yds to the GAST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
1.5%
Jordan McCloud run for 8 yds to the GAST 3Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+3
0.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Zach Horton for 3 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:510% → 0%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Freddie Brock run for no gain to the GAST 25Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.1%
Freddie Brock run for 6 yds to the GAST 31Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
0.1%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 7 yds to the GAST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
0.1%
Darren Grainger run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
50
+4
0.1%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Cadarrius Thompson for 4 yds to the JMU 46Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
0.1%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
0.1%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 6
OPP 46
-7
0.1%
Darren Grainger sacked by Jamree Kromah for a loss of 7 yards to the GAST 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 4:27100% → 100%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
0.2%
Sammy Malignaggi run for 8 yds to the GAST 39Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+2
0.2%
Sammy Malignaggi run for 2 yds to the GAST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
0.2%
Sammy Malignaggi run for 6 yds to the GAST 31Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+6
0.2%
Billy Atkins run for 6 yds to the GAST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
0.1%
Sammy Malignaggi run for 2 yds to the GAST 23Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+6
0.1%
Ke'Marion Baldwin run for 6 yds to the GAST 17Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+1
0.1%
Ke'Marion Baldwin run for 1 yd to the GAST 16Similar
Q4 0:23
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
0.1%
Ke'Marion Baldwin run for no gain to the GAST 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
0.0%
Freddie Brock run for 4 yds to the GAST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:19
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ty Son Lawton for 11 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)
-13.8
TD · Q2 1:09
Jordan McCloud run for 5 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)
-10.9
TD · Q3 2:43
Darren Grainger run for 58 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
+10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com