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ARST

Arkansas State 34 at UL Monroe 24

ULM
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:57 · Blake Murphy pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingTime per score still needed
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Home team on offense−36.8Score differential−15.3Garbage-time factor−14.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−10.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.9Time per score still needed−8.9
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 5:27: Derek McCormick 20 yd FG GOOD — ULM win probability +9.3 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:27: Blake Murphy pass complete to Nolan Quinlan for 32 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK) — ULM win probability +17.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:10: Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 5 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +16.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:41: Zak Wallace run for 34 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +28.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:28: Zak Wallace run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +10.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 7 of 13ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:13ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:08ULM 4th & 24 at ULM 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:57ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:40ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:22ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:26ULM 4th & 4 at ARST 33, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.4%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00ULM 4th & 1 at ARST 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    53.4%−1.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    49.9%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:45ULM 4th & 8 at ARST 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−4.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:44ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 29, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:27ULM 4th & 2 at ARST 2, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.5%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    47.3%−7.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:02ARST 4th & 10 at ULM 32, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:34ULM 4th & 12 at ULM 23, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−2.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00ULM 4th & 2 at ARST 41, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    52.8%−3.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:21ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 33, down 1
    Close callPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:37ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 48, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:45ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 41, down 1
    Close callPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:08ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 38, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.8 ptsPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%−3.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:57ULM 4th & 17 at ARST 38, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%
    38% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:08ARST 4th & 1 at ULM 24, up 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.6%−0.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−2.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:12ULM 4th & 2 at ARST 37, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 1:36ARST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:27ULM Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:10ARST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:41ARST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.0%−0.8
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:28ARST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:22ULM Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    4.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4751% → 51%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
48.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ARST 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
48.6%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the ARST 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+1
48.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for 1 yd to the ARST 29Similar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
49.1%
William Przystup punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 14 yds · 4:0549% → 49%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
49.0%
Hunter Smith run for 8 yds to the ULM 32Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+1
49.1%
Blake Murphy run for 1 yd to the ULM 33Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
48.9%
Hunter Smith run for 2 yds to the ULM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
49.0%
Hunter Smith run for 2 yds to the ULM 37Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+15
49.0%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Alred Luke for 15 yds to the ARST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
49.2%
Isaiah Woullard run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARST 49Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 11
OPP 49
0
49.1%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 11
OPP 49
-5
49.0%
UL Monroe Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ULM 46Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 16
OWN 46
-8
48.9%
Blake Murphy sacked by Charles Willekes for a loss of 8 yards to the ULM 38Similar
Q1 9:08
4TH & 24
OWN 38
0
49.3%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1150% → 50%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
49.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+2
50.0%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds to the ARST 18Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+5
50.2%
UL Monroe Penalty, Offsides (Jaylan Ware) to the ARST 23Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 3
OWN 23
0
50.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:57
4TH & 3
OWN 23
0
50.4%
William Przystup punt for 50 yds , Bugs Mortimer returns for no gain UL Monroe Penalty, Offensive Holding (Travor Randle) to the ULM 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1750% → 50%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
50.3%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Isaiah Woullard for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 27Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 11
OWN 27
0
50.1%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+6
49.8%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 6 yds to the ULM 33Similar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
49.5%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:1850% → 50%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
49.9%
Zak Wallace run for 11 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
49.5%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the ARST 43Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
49.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
49.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
49.8%
William Przystup punt for 44 yds, downed at the ULM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6FG
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:5650% → 53%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+48
50.4%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for 48 yds to the ARST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
51.6%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 6 yds to the ARST 33Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
51.8%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 4
OPP 33
-5
51.4%
MURPHY, Blake pass deep to the left complete for 33 yards to LUKE, Alred caught at the ASU0 and advanced to the ASU0, TOUCHDOWN ULM, score nullified by penalty (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY ULM Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on MICKLE, Jay enforced 5 yards from the ASU33 to the ASU38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+5
51.2%
Blake Murphy run for 5 yds to the ARST 33Similar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+50
53.0%
Derek McCormick 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5048% → 54%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+58
51.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 58 yds to the ULM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
49.9%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the ULM 11Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+8
49.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 8 yds to the ULM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
49.8%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 1 yd to the ULM 2Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
45.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 5:5147% → 49%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.5%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
46.4%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for 12 yds to the ULM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
47.1%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for no gain to the ULM 37Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
46.7%
Isaiah Woullard run for 4 yds to the ULM 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+33
47.1%
Blake Murphy pass complete to NyNy Davis for 33 yds to the ARST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
48.8%
Isaiah Woullard run for 4 yds to the ARST 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+3
48.8%
Isaiah Woullard run for 3 yds to the ARST 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+2
48.1%
Isaiah Woullard run for 2 yds to the ARST 17Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+2
47.5%
Hunter Smith run for 2 yds to the ARST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
48.8%
Hunter Smith run for 2 yds to the ARST 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
48.8%
Hunter Smith run for no gain to the ARST 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
48.2%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:45
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
48.7%
Derek McCormick 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5551% → 50%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
48.9%
Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARST 23Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
49.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+6
49.9%
Jaylen Raynor run for 6 yds to the ARST 29Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
50.0%
William Przystup punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 4:1748% → 59%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
47.9%
Bennett Galloway run for 7 yds to the ULM 44Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+10
49.3%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 10 yds to the ARST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+24
49.8%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Nolan Quinlan for 24 yds to the ARST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
50.6%
Tyrone Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
50.5%
Bennett Galloway run for 5 yds to the ARST 17Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+7
49.6%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Nolan Quinlan for 7 yds to the ARST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
50.6%
Bennett Galloway run for 3 yds to the ARST 7Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
50.6%
Blake Murphy run for 5 yds to the ARST 2Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
49.4%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
58.7%
Derek McCormick 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:2543% → 52%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
57.5%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 18 yds to the ULM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
55.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 48Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-2
56.0%
Jaylen Raynor sacked by Kenard Snyder for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 13
50
+18
57.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 18 yds to the ULM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
54.3%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ULM 30Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-2
54.0%
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 32Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
55.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+49
47.7%
Dominic Zvada 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:2846% → 45%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.7%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
45.4%
Blake Murphy pass complete to NyNy Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 23Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
44.1%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
45.0%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 40 yds, downed at the ARST 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13INT
8 plays · 41 yds · 1:0951% → 53%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
49.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+28
49.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 28 yds to the ULM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
45.6%
RAYNOR, Jaylen pass deep to the right incomplete intended for STEVENSON, Emmanual thrown to the ULM15. PENALTY ASU Holding on THOMAS, Makilan enforced 10 yards from the ULM35 to the ULM45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+11
47.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 11 yds to the ULM 34Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+12
45.8%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Adam Jones for 12 yds to the ULM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
44.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
45.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
46.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
47.0%
Hunter Smith run for 3 yds to the ULM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:3350% → 69%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.1%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
49.9%
Hunter Smith run for 2 yds to the ULM 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
48.6%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for 13 yds to the ULM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
52.7%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 7 yds to the ULM 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+1
53.5%
Hunter Smith run for 1 yd to the ULM 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+3
52.5%
Hunter Smith run for 3 yds to the ARST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
53.7%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
53.2%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 6 yds to the ARST 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+2
53.3%
Isaiah Woullard run for 2 yds to the ARST 41Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+7
51.8%
Isaiah Woullard run for 7 yds to the ARST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
55.0%
UL Monroe Penalty, False Start (Keydrell Lewis) to the ARST 39Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 39
0
52.2%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+7
51.9%
Hunter Smith run for 7 yds to the ARST 32Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+32
69.3%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Nolan Quinlan for 32 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:1736% → 59%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
64.0%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 11 yds to the ARST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
62.5%
RAYNOR, Jaylen pass deep to the right incomplete intended for RUCKER, Corey thrown to the ULM32. PENALTY ULM Pass Interference on TILLERY, Lucius enforced 15 yards to the ULM49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
59.9%
Zak Wallace run for 7 yds to the ULM 42Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+6
59.2%
Zak Wallace run for 6 yds to the ULM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
59.9%
Zak Wallace run for 9 yds to the ULM 27Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 1
OPP 27
0
57.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+3
59.3%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ULM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
57.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for no gain to the ULM 24Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+8
58.4%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Kevin Diaz for 8 yds to the ULM 16Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+3
59.4%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 3 yds to the ULM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
57.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+11
57.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for 11 yds to the ULM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
57.6%
Jaylen Raynor run for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 5Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
40.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 5 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4950% → 48%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
49.6%
Isaiah Woullard run for 6 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
52.0%
Isaiah Woullard run for 2 yds to the ULM 33Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
50.7%
Isaiah Woullard run for no gain to the ULM 33Similar
Q3 2:21
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
47.9%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:4455% → 53%
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-15
45.5%
Arkansas State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jalen Cunningham) to the ARST 26Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 18
OWN 26
+20
47.9%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 20 yds to the ARST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
43.2%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 2 yds to the ARST 48Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
43.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
44.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:37
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
47.3%
William Przystup punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:1547% → 49%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
46.7%
Hunter Smith run for 4 yds to the ULM 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+24
46.4%
Hunter Smith run for 24 yds to the ULM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
48.7%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Alred Luke for 8 yds to the ULM 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 41
0
52.9%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 41
0
51.3%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
48.7%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 1:0456% → 85%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
44.2%
Zak Wallace run for 11 yds to the ARST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+36
43.1%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Corey Rucker for 36 yds to the ULM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
15.0%
Zak Wallace run for 34 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2416% → 15%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
15.9%
Bennett Galloway run for 3 yds to the ULM 32Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
15.9%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+6
15.5%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 6 yds to the ULM 38Similar
Q4 11:08
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
14.9%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the ARST 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:4082% → 96%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+38
17.6%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 38 yds to the ULM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
14.6%
Zak Wallace run for no gain to the ULM 34Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
14.7%
Jaylen Raynor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+33
15.3%
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Jalen Corprew for 33 yds to the ULM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.4%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 38 yds · 2:233% → 2%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
3.1%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 8 yds to the ULM 32Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+14
3.7%
Isaiah Woullard run for 14 yds to the ULM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
3.3%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 8 yds to the ARST 46Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+15
4.1%
MURPHY, Blake pass deep to the right incomplete intended for DAVIS, NyNy thrown to the ASU3. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on THOMAS, Trevian enforced 15 yards to the ASU31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
3.8%
QB Keeper MURPHY, Blake rush for a gain of 8 yards to the ASU23, End of Play. PENALTY ULM Holding on WILKINS, Stacey enforced 10 yards from the ASU31 to the ASU41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 20
OPP 41
0
3.5%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 20
OPP 41
0
3.4%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 20
OPP 41
+3
2.3%
Blake Murphy run for 3 yds to the ARST 38Similar
Q4 6:57
4TH & 17
OPP 38
0
2.3%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 4:4997% → 99%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
3.3%
Zak Wallace run for 3 yds to the ARST 41Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
3.2%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the ARST 45Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+2
3.1%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the ARST 47Similar
Q4 6:57
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+5
3.2%
Punt by PRZYSTUP, William at the ASU47 is blocked by CARTWRIGHT, Austin, recovered by ULM VIGERS, Car'lin at the ASU38, returned 38 yards to the ASU0, TOUCHDOWN ULM, score nullified by penalty (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY Before the snap, ULM Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the ASU47 to the ULM48 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
3.1%
Zak Wallace run for 15 yds to the ULM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
3.0%
Zak Wallace run for 1 yd to the ULM 32Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+6
3.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the ULM 26Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+2
1.3%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the ULM 24Similar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+42
1.1%
Dominic Zvada 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:461% → 4%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.6%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Hunter Smith for 9 yds to the ULM 34Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
0.6%
Blake Murphy run for 6 yds to the ULM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
0.6%
Blake Murphy run for 15 yds to the ARST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
0.6%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 8 yds to the ARST 37Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 2
OPP 37
0
0.6%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 2
OPP 37
0
0.6%
Blake Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+3
0.6%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for 3 yds to the ARST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+22
0.7%
Blake Murphy pass complete to Bud Tolbert for 22 yds to the ARST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
4.0%
Blake Murphy pass complete to NyNy Davis for 12 yds for a TD (B. Murphy Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
4.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by RAYNOR, Jaylen at ASU46 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:41
Zak Wallace run for 34 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
-28.1
TD · Q3 9:27
Blake Murphy pass complete to Nolan Quinlan for 32 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK)
+17.4
TD · Q3 4:10
Jaylen Raynor pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 5 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
-16.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com