Try the model
ODU

Old Dominion 27 at James Madison 30

JMU
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Bridgeforth Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · JMU
modelJMU aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playJMU scoreODU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDSAFETYTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:32 · Ryan Hanson punt for 30 yds, downed at the ODU 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 175Pregame prior+0.4Home team on offense+23.3Garbage-time factor+14.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.1Score differential+1.3Blowout margin−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:54: Grant Wilson pass complete to Dominic Dutton for 58 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — ODU win probability +5.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:06: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 3 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +6.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:36: Grant Wilson pass complete to Javon Harvey for 10 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — ODU win probability +12.7 pts (now 24%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:55: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 21 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +8.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:01: Kadarius Calloway run for 21 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — ODU win probability +14.7 pts (now 27%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
JMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ODU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:31ODU 4th & 2 at JMU 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.0%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:01JMU 4th & 2 at ODU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    87.2%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    86.8%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:16ODU 4th & 1 at JMU 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.3%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:08ODU 4th & 11 at ODU 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:27JMU 4th & 7 at JMU 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:17ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 33, down 4
    Close callPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:20JMU 4th & 2 at JMU 47, up 4
    Close callPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:43ODU 4th & 10 at ODU 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:38JMU 4th & 2 at ODU 44, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    83.5%−1.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    84.3%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:24JMU 4th & 1 at ODU 40, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    80.9%−3.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    81.2%−3.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:14ODU 4th & 6 at JMU 6, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.9%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−11.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:02JMU 4th & 4 at JMU 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−1.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:37ODU 4th & 15 at ODU 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−3.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:36JMU 4th & 19 at ODU 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−6.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:39ODU 4th & 11 at ODU 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.9%−2.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:32JMU 4th & 3 at ODU 39, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.3 ptsPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    92.2%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%−4.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ODU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 0:00JMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:23JMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:54ODU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:06JMU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:36ODU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:55JMU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:01ODU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
JMUDrive 1INT
2 plays · 40 yds · 0:4088% → 88%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+40
88.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 40 yds to the ODU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
88.1%
Jordan McCloud pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:4412% → 13%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-7
88.0%
Grant Wilson sacked by Jalen Green for a loss of 7 yards to the JMU 42Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 17
OPP 42
+5
88.0%
Keshawn Wicks run for 5 yds to the JMU 37Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+12
88.0%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 12 yds to the JMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
88.0%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Keshawn Wicks for 12 yds to the JMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
88.0%
Keshawn Wicks run for 1 yd to the JMU 12Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+5
88.0%
James Madison Penalty, Offsides (James Carpenter) to the JMU 7Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+2
88.0%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Javon Harvey for 2 yds to the JMU 5Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
88.0%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+22
87.1%
Ethan Sanchez 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 51 yds · 4:3087% → 86%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.1%
Ty Son Lawton run for 5 yds to the JMU 30Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
87.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 11 yds to the JMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
87.3%
Ty Son Lawton run for 2 yds to the JMU 43Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+15
87.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 15 yds to the ODU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
87.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 10 yds to the ODU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
87.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 35Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+9
87.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 9 yds to the ODU 26Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+2
87.3%
Jordan McCloud run for 2 yds to the ODU 24Similar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 2
OPP 24
0
85.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4DOWNS
15 plays · 44 yds · 5:4515% → 18%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
85.4%
Kadarius Calloway run for 3 yds to the ODU 27Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+3
85.4%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Javon Harvey for 3 yds to the ODU 30Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+7
85.4%
Kadarius Calloway run for 7 yds to the ODU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
85.3%
Kadarius Calloway run for 1 yd to the ODU 38Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
85.2%
Kadarius Calloway run for 1 yd to the ODU 39Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+11
85.3%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Isiah Paige for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
50
+5
85.0%
Obie Sanni run for 5 yds to the JMU 45Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
85.0%
Obie Sanni run for no gain to the JMU 45Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+6
83.3%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Isiah Paige for 6 yds to the JMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
83.2%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Jordan Bly for no gain to the JMU 39Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
82.4%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Jordan Bly for 9 yds Jordan Bly fumbled, recovered by ODU [NHSG] WILSON, Grant pass to the left complete for 9 yards to BLY, Jordan caught at the JMU40, BLY, Jordan fumbled at JMU31 forced by REIMONENQ, Jarius, recovered by ODU SPENCER, Isaiah at the JMU30, returned 0 yards to the JMU30, End of Play.Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
82.3%
Kadarius Calloway run for no gain to the JMU 30Similar
Q1 1:16
4TH & 1
OPP 30
-2
82.3%
Kadarius Calloway run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 5TD
3 plays · 68 yds · 1:1683% → 85%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
82.5%
Kaelon Black run for 2 yds to the JMU 34Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+17
82.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 17 yds to the ODU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
85.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 49 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:5215% → 15%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.8%
Keshawn Wicks run for no gain to the ODU 25 Keshawn Wicks fumbled, recovered by ODU Keshawn Wicks [NHSG] WICKS, Keshawn rush to the right for no gain, WICKS, Keshawn fumbled at ODU23 , recovered by ODU WICKS, Keshawn at the ODU25, returned 0 yards to the ODU25, End of Play.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
84.9%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Isiah Paige for 10 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.6%
Grant Wilson run for no gain to the ODU 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-10
84.7%
WILSON, Grant pass up the middle incomplete dropped by WILLIAMS, Kelby thrown to the ODU44. PENALTY ODU Holding on WICKS, Keshawn enforced 10 yards from the ODU35 to the ODU25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 25
0
85.0%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 25
+9
85.2%
Keshawn Wicks run for 9 yds to the ODU 34Similar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
84.9%
Ethan Duane punt for 37 yds, downed at the JMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4184% → 83%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
84.1%
Ty Son Lawton run for no gain to the JMU 29Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
84.0%
Jordan McCloud run for 3 yds to the JMU 32Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
83.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
82.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1016% → 16%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
83.9%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 6 yds to the ODU 30Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
83.4%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+3
83.9%
Grant Wilson run for 3 yds to the ODU 33Similar
Q2 10:17
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
83.8%
Ethan Duane punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:5483% → 88%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
83.2%
Kaelon Black run for 15 yds to the JMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
83.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 7 yds Reggie Brown fumbled, recovered by JMU [NHSG] MCCLOUD, Jordan pass to the right complete for 7 yards to BROWN, Reggie caught at the JMU41, BROWN, Reggie fumbled at JMU42 forced by JAMES, LaMareon out of bounds to the JMU42.Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
84.1%
Jordan McCloud run for 4 yds to the JMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
84.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 13 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
84.2%
Kaelon Black run for 9 yds to the ODU 32Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+31
84.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 31 yds to the ODU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.3%
Jordan McCloud run for 1 yd for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2912% → 19%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.7%
Kadarius Calloway run for 2 yds to the ODU 27Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
87.6%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Isiah Paige for 9 yds to the ODU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
87.3%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Isiah Paige for 5 yds to the ODU 41Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
87.0%
Kadarius Calloway run for 1 yd to the ODU 42Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+58
81.4%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Dominic Dutton for 58 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 4:2782% → 81%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
82.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ty Son Lawton for 4 yds to the JMU 15Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+3
82.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for 3 yds to the JMU 18Similar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+6
81.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 6 yds to the JMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
82.5%
Jordan McCloud run for 5 yds to the JMU 29Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+2
82.7%
Ty Son Lawton run for 2 yds to the JMU 31Similar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+8
82.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 8 yds to the JMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
83.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kaelon Black for 9 yds to the JMU 48Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
83.7%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-1
83.2%
Kaelon Black run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMU 47Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
81.3%
Ryan Hanson punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3719% → 18%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
81.4%
Keshawn Wicks run for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 15Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+2
81.5%
Keshawn Wicks run for 2 yds to the ODU 17Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
82.1%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
82.5%
Ethan Duane punt for 34 yds, downed at the JMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 13INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:4083% → 81%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
82.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
82.5%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
81.0%
Jordan McCloud pass intercepted Markus Knight fumbled, recovered by JMU [NHSG] MCCLOUD, Jordan pass deep to the right intercepted by KNIGHT, Markus at the ODU25 intended for SARRATT, Elijah. Knight return for 28 yards to the JMU47, KNIGHT, Markus fumbled at JMU47 forced by NAOTALA, Seth out of bounds , clock 00:03.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -13 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-13
78.1%
Grant Wilson sacked by Jalen Green and James Carpenter for a loss of 13 yards to the ODU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15SF
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:1720% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
80.4%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
80.5%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 5
0
81.2%
Old Dominion Penalty, False Start (Xavier Black) to the ODU 3Similar
Q3 14:43
3RD & 12
OWN 3
0
83.4%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:3284% → 92%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
84.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 9 yds to the JMU 44Similar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+4
85.2%
Kaelon Black run for 4 yds to the JMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
85.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 5 yds to the ODU 47Similar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+3
85.3%
Kaelon Black run for 3 yds to the ODU 44Similar
Q3 14:38
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
84.8%
Ty Son Lawton run for no gain to the ODU 44Similar
Q3 14:38
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+5
84.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kyi Wright for 5 yds to the ODU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
85.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 23 yds to the ODU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
85.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+13
85.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for 13 yds to the ODU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
85.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 3 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:309% → 24%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.6%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Isiah Paige for no gain to the ODU 25Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.7%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Isiah Paige for 4 yds to the ODU 29Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+45
90.5%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 45 yds to the JMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
88.5%
Kadarius Calloway run for 1 yd to the JMU 25Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+12
88.7%
Kadarius Calloway run for 12 yds to the JMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
88.5%
Obie Sanni run for 11 yds to the JMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
88.5%
WILSON, Grant pass to the left complete for 2 yards to HARVEY, Javon caught at the JMU5 and advanced to the JMU0, TOUCHDOWN ODU, score nullified by penalty, clock 08:15 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY ODU Holding on BUTLER, Jalen enforced 10 yards from the JMU2 to the JMU12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
88.7%
Obie Sanni run for 2 yds to the JMU 10Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
76.0%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Javon Harvey for 10 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:3583% → 93%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
82.5%
Ty Son Lawton run for 4 yds to the JMU 36Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+13
83.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 13 yds to the JMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
84.1%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
83.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Taji Hudson for 9 yds to the ODU 42Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+19
83.2%
Ty Son Lawton run for 19 yds to the ODU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
84.2%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+2
84.1%
Jordan McCloud run for 2 yds to the ODU 21Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+21
92.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Reggie Brown for 21 yds for a TD (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5410% → 27%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.5%
Grant Wilson run for 5 yds to the ODU 30Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
89.5%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Jalen Butler for no gain to the ODU 30Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+36
89.9%
Keshawn Wicks run for 36 yds to the JMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
87.7%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+13
87.9%
Kadarius Calloway run for 13 yds to the JMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
87.4%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
72.8%
Kadarius Calloway run for 21 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:3083% → 84%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
83.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for 7 yds to the JMU 28Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+6
84.1%
Ty Son Lawton run for 6 yds to the JMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
83.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 17 yds to the ODU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
85.6%
Kaelon Black run for 4 yds to the ODU 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
85.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+5
84.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 5 yds to the ODU 40Similar
Q4 14:24
4TH & 1
OPP 40
-2
83.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 4:1025% → 31%
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
75.1%
Keshawn Wicks run for no gain to the ODU 42Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
75.9%
Keshawn Wicks run for no gain to the ODU 42Similar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+11
77.0%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Javon Harvey for 11 yds to the JMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
73.3%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Isiah Paige for 7 yds to the JMU 40Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+7
72.6%
Keshawn Wicks run for 7 yds to the JMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
71.6%
Keshawn Wicks run for 16 yds to the JMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
70.8%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Isiah Paige for 7 yds to the JMU 10Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+6
71.2%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 6 yds to the JMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
70.7%
Kadarius Calloway run for no gain to the JMU 4Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
70.7%
Kadarius Calloway run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMU 6Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
72.7%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
68.9%
Ethan Sanchez 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1277% → 75%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.4%
Ty Son Lawton run for 4 yds to the JMU 29Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
77.6%
Ty Son Lawton run for 2 yds to the JMU 31Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
76.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:02
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
75.3%
Ryan Hanson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2528% → 26%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
71.6%
Obie Sanni run for 2 yds to the ODU 23Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 23
-1
72.0%
Obie Sanni run for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 22Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 9
OWN 22
-6
73.5%
Grant Wilson sacked by Jalen Green for a loss of 6 yards to the ODU 16Similar
Q4 7:37
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
74.2%
Ethan Duane punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Josh Sarratt at the JMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 3:0180% → 77%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
80.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Phoenix Sproles for 6 yds to the ODU 45Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+5
80.5%
Jordan McCloud run for 5 yds to the ODU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-8
80.6%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Mario Thompson for a loss of 8 yards to the ODU 48Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 18
OPP 48
-1
78.8%
Jordan McCloud run for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 49Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 19
OPP 49
0
76.7%
Jordan McCloud run for no gain to the ODU 49Similar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 19
OPP 49
0
76.5%
Ryan Hanson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:5730% → 23%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
70.4%
Old Dominion Penalty, False Start (Xavier Black) to the ODU 12Similar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+1
70.7%
Grant Wilson run for 1 yd to the ODU 13Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 14
OWN 13
+4
71.3%
Kadarius Calloway run for 4 yds to the ODU 17Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+30
72.8%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Javon Harvey for 30 yds to the ODU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
64.7%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 1 yd to the ODU 48Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
65.7%
Kadarius Calloway run for no gain to the ODU 48Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-5
67.8%
Old Dominion Penalty, False Start (Chris Adams) to the ODU 43Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+3
76.0%
Kadarius Calloway run for 3 yds to the ODU 46Similar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
77.3%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:0191% → 94%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
90.8%
Kaelon Black run for 3 yds to the ODU 43Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+2
92.2%
Kaelon Black run for 2 yds to the ODU 41Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+2
94.2%
Kaelon Black run for 2 yds to the ODU 39Similar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
93.5%
Ryan Hanson punt for 30 yds, downed at the ODU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 27FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:3211% → 11%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
88.8%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Javon Harvey for 9 yds to the ODU 18Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+4
87.4%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Kadarius Calloway for 4 yds to the ODU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
88.2%
Old Dominion Penalty, Offsides (Javon Harvey) to the ODU 17Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 17
0
89.2%
Grant Wilson sacked for 0 yards to the ODU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:01
Kadarius Calloway run for 21 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
-14.7
TD · Q3 7:36
Grant Wilson pass complete to Javon Harvey for 10 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
-12.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+10.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com