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ODU

Old Dominion 17 at Southern Miss 13

USM
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreODU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:31 · Bryce Lofton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorDefense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingOffense timeouts
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Pregame prior+7.7Home team on offense+3.2Garbage-time factor+0.7Defense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:09: Tiaquelin Mims 82 Yd Punt Return (Andrew Stein Kick) — USM win probability +6.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:24: Keshawn Wicks run for 2 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — ODU win probability +6.5 pts (now 36%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:50: Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the ODU 45 — USM win probability +11.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:19: Keshawn Wicks run for 16 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — ODU win probability +27.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:09: Timeout Southern Miss, clock 05:09 — ODU win probability +13.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: Offense has -7 timeouts left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 10ODU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 11:40ODU 4th & 20 at ODU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:15USM 4th & 6 at USM 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:59ODU 4th & 5 at ODU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:31USM 4th & 10 at USM 37, tied
    Close callWent for it · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.7%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    57.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:26USM 4th & 4 at ODU 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.9%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:09ODU 4th & 12 at USM 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:14USM 4th & 2 at ODU 45, up 3
    Close callPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    59.1%−1.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:59ODU 4th & 8 at ODU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:34USM 4th & 12 at ODU 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    59.6%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:59ODU 4th & 20 at USM 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−1.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    37.0%−0.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:31USM 4th & 12 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−1.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:22ODU 4th & 5 at ODU 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:32USM 4th & 14 at ODU 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−2.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    54.2%−9.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:12ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 35, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%−2.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:50ODU 4th & 2 at USM 18, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−2.0
    79% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−14.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:24USM 4th & 2 at USM 30, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%−1.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:12ODU 4th & 13 at USM 13, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−3.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    17.0%−12.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:29USM 4th & 1 at USM 30, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.4 ptsPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%−5.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:51USM 4th & 2 at ODU 2, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    36.7%−6.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−24.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ODU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:09USM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:24ODU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:19ODU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ODUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 3:2034% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.4%
Jack Shields run for 1 yd to the ODU 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
66.4%
Kadarius Calloway run for 8 yds to the ODU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
66.4%
Kadarius Calloway run for 5 yds to the ODU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
66.4%
Old Dominion Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ODU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+1
66.4%
Jack Shields run for 1 yd to the ODU 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 35
0
66.4%
Jack Shields pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:29
3RD & 14
OWN 35
-6
66.3%
Jack Shields sacked by Dylan Lawrence for a loss of 6 yards to the ODU 29Similar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 20
OWN 29
0
66.3%
Ethan Duane punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2566% → 66%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
66.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 2
50
+1
66.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the ODU 49Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-5
66.4%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USM 46Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
66.3%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:15
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
65.9%
Bryce Lofton punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 1:1634% → 34%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+31
65.9%
Kadarius Calloway run for 31 yds to the ODU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
65.9%
Kadarius Calloway run for 3 yds to the ODU 35Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-3
65.8%
Jack Shields sacked by Kristin Booth for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 32Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+5
66.2%
SHIELDS, Jack pass to the right incomplete intended for BUTLER, Jalen thrown to the ODU38; QB hurried by HABAS, Averie. PENALTY Before the snap, USM Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the ODU32 to the ODU37. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
65.8%
Jack Shields pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
66.2%
Ethan Duane punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4FG
16 plays · 71 yds · 6:2666% → 67%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
65.9%
Chandler Pittman run for 5 yds to the USM 32Similar
Q1 8:52
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
65.8%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+5
65.2%
(07:38) LOFTON, Bryce punt 50 yards to the ODU18, fair catch by PAIGE, Isiah, clock 07:31. PENALTY ODU Offsides on CHAPMAN, Corey enforced 5 yards from the USM32 to the USM37 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+11
65.2%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 11 yds to the USM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
66.3%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 5 yds to the ODU 47Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
66.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the ODU 43Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 1
OPP 43
-5
66.2%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ODU 48Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+31
66.2%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 31 yds to the ODU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
66.6%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 8 yds to the ODU 9Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+3
66.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the ODU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
66.6%
Billy Wiles run for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 9Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
66.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the ODU 9Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
66.3%
Old Dominion Penalty, Offsides (Yards) to the ODU 5Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
66.3%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
67.1%
Andrew Stein 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5PUNT TD
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:1734% → 29%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
66.2%
Kadarius Calloway run for 1 yd to the ODU 36Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+19
66.2%
Jack Shields run for 19 yds to the USM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
65.2%
Kadarius Calloway run for 7 yds to the USM 38Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 3
OPP 38
-5
65.0%
Old Dominion Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USM 43Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
65.2%
Jack Shields pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 8
OPP 43
-4
65.2%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Jordan Bly for a loss of 4 yards to the USM 47Similar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 12
OPP 47
+82
71.2%
Tiaquelin Mims 82 Yd Punt Return (Andrew Stein Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 0:4029% → 36%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.8%
Jack Shields pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
71.0%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+78
71.5%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Kelby Williams for 78 yds to the USM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
64.1%
Keshawn Wicks run for 2 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 48 yds · 5:0265% → 68%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
65.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the USM 7Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
64.9%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+16
64.2%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 16 yds to the USM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
64.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 13 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
65.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 9 yds to the USM 45Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
66.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
66.3%
Billy Wiles run for 9 yds to the ODU 44Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
66.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the ODU 44Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-1
65.9%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 45Similar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
68.3%
Bryce Lofton punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1531% → 29%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
69.2%
Kadarius Calloway run for 2 yds to the ODU 22Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
69.3%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
69.9%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
71.0%
Ethan Duane punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:2570% → 68%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
70.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the USM 40Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+16
69.5%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 16 yds to the ODU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
70.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the ODU 44Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
70.7%
Chandler Pittman run for 4 yds to the ODU 40Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 6
OPP 40
-6
70.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the ODU 46Similar
Q2 4:34
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
68.1%
Bryce Lofton punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 42 yds · 3:3530% → 36%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
70.2%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Keshawn Wicks for 9 yds to the ODU 21Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+3
69.7%
Keshawn Wicks run for 3 yds to the ODU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
70.0%
Keshawn Wicks run for 7 yds to the ODU 31Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+6
69.1%
Keshawn Wicks run for 6 yds to the ODU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
69.4%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+27
69.8%
Kadarius Calloway run for 27 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
67.5%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+2
68.2%
Kadarius Calloway run for 2 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 8
OPP 34
-12
59.8%
Grant Wilson sacked by Averie Habas for a loss of 12 yards to the USM 46Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 20
OPP 46
0
63.7%
Ethan Duane punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11END OF HALF
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:2357% → 57%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
56.6%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
56.3%
Old Dominion Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Kris Trinidad) to the USM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
57.0%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 2 yds to the USM 42Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-8
57.1%
Billy Wiles sacked by Jason Henderson for a loss of 8 yards to the USM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1969% → 66%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
69.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the ODU 45Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-5
69.0%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:50
3RD & 12
50
0
66.4%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 12
50
0
66.0%
Bryce Lofton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Isiah Paige at the ODU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0333% → 31%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
66.7%
Kadarius Calloway run for 5 yds to the ODU 14Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 5
OWN 14
0
66.5%
Grant Wilson run for no gain to the ODU 14Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
67.7%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:22
4TH & 5
OWN 14
0
68.6%
Ethan Duane punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 4:4169% → 73%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-7
68.9%
Billy Wiles sacked by Denzel Lowry for a loss of 7 yards to the USM 38Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 17
OWN 38
+4
66.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the USM 42Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+16
65.6%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 16 yds to the ODU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
69.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the ODU 37Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+8
69.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 8 yds to the ODU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
70.4%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
71.1%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+19
69.7%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 19 yds to the ODU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
71.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the ODU 9Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
71.2%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
70.1%
Tiaquelin Mims run for a loss of 5 yards to the ODU 14Similar
Q3 7:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
72.5%
Andrew Stein 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1430% → 29%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
70.2%
Jack Shields run for 2 yds to the ODU 28Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
70.0%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+7
71.7%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Kadarius Calloway for 7 yds to the ODU 35Similar
Q3 6:12
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
70.7%
Ethan Duane punt for 39 yds , returns for no gain to the USM 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 16DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2236% → 33%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
64.1%
Keshawn Wicks run for 6 yds to the USM 20Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 4
OPP 20
0
64.1%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+2
65.9%
Keshawn Wicks run for 2 yds to the USM 18Similar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 2
OPP 18
-4
67.3%
Grant Wilson sacked by Averie Habas for a loss of 4 yards to the USM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2674% → 72%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
73.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the USM 23Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
73.4%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+7
72.4%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 7 yds to the USM 30Similar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
72.2%
Bryce Lofton punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 18FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:1232% → 33%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
67.6%
Kadarius Calloway run for 3 yds to the ODU 42Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
66.5%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+13
68.6%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Isiah Paige for 13 yds to the USM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+40
65.0%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Ahmarian Granger for 40 yds to the USM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
62.4%
Kadarius Calloway run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 6Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
63.0%
Kelby Williams run for no gain to the USM 6Similar
Q3 1:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-7
65.1%
Grant Wilson sacked by Markel McLaurin for a loss of 7 yards to the USM 13Similar
Q3 0:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
67.2%
Ethan Sanchez 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:3966% → 70%
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
66.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the USM 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+7
66.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the USM 20Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+1
73.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the USM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
74.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the USM 23Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+7
74.6%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 7 yds to the USM 30Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
72.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the USM 30Similar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
70.3%
Bryce Lofton punt for 32 yds, downed at the ODU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 0:5832% → 61%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
68.5%
Grant Wilson run for 7 yds to the ODU 45Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+39
66.2%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Ahmarian Granger for 39 yds to the USM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
39.0%
Keshawn Wicks run for 16 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21DOWNS
16 plays · 74 yds · 7:2846% → 19%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
46.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the USM 28Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
46.5%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 15 yds to the USM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
49.9%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Davis Dalton for 15 yds to the ODU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
52.2%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Davis Dalton for 3 yds to the ODU 39Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+10
52.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 10 yds to the ODU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
53.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the ODU 24Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+2
53.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the ODU 22Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+6
50.6%
Rodrigues Clark run for 6 yds to the ODU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
53.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the ODU 15Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+10
53.1%
Billy Wiles run for 10 yds to the ODU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
39.2%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
39.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the ODU 2Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
28.7%
run for no gain to the ODU 2Similar
Q4 3:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
18.6%
run for 1 yd to the ODU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22END OF GAME
10 plays · 22 yds · 3:5183% → 98%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
16.9%
Grant Wilson run for no gain to the ODU 1Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
17.3%
Grant Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+12
16.3%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Keshawn Wicks for 12 yds to the ODU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
10.0%
Keshawn Wicks run for 1 yd to the ODU 14Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+2
10.2%
Keshawn Wicks run for 2 yds to the ODU 16Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+9
4.4%
Keshawn Wicks run for 9 yds to the ODU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by ODU at ODU23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:19
Keshawn Wicks run for 16 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
-27.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:09
Timeout Southern Miss, clock 05:09
-13.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 14:50
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the ODU 45
+11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com