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TROY

Troy 28 at Georgia State 7

GAST
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Center Parc Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the GAST 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:05: Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK) — GAST win probability +11.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:56: Damien Taylor run for 45 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +17.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:42: Kimani Vidal 14 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Gunnar Watson Pass to Deyunkrea Lewis for Two-Point Conversion) — TROY win probability +20.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:47: Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 35 — TROY win probability +8.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. FUMBLE · Q4 8:21: Darren Grainger run for a loss of 4 yards to the TROY 32 Darren Grainger fumbled, recovered by TROY Jayden McDonald — TROY win probability +6.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 7:07TROY 4th & 4 at GAST 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.1%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    43.7%−1.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:23GAST 4th & 9 at TROY 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    53.6%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:12TROY 4th & 6 at GAST 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−3.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:14GAST 4th & 2 at TROY 9, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.1%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    48.0%−1.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−7.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:11TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 43, down 1
    Close callPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:40GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 16, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−2.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:53GAST 4th & 4 at GAST 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:41TROY 4th & 9 at GAST 24, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    52.2%−7.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:41GAST 4th & 2 at GAST 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.2%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:07GAST 4th & 26 at GAST 21, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−6.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:47GAST 4th & 3 at TROY 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    16.5%−1.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:24TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:06TROY 4th & 6 at GAST 6, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TROY made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q2 7:05GAST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:56TROY Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:42TROY Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    78.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:06TROY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1INT
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:5152% → 52%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
51.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ahmon Green for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+38
51.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 38 yds to the TROY 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
51.6%
Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the TROY 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+4
51.6%
Darren Grainger run for 4 yds to the TROY 8Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
52.1%
Darren Grainger pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2FG
12 plays · 93 yds · 6:0248% → 48%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
51.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 7Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+12
51.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 12 yds to the TROY 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
51.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 2 yds to the TROY 21Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+12
51.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 12 yds to the TROY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
51.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 18 yds to the GAST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+31
51.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 31 yds to the GAST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
51.6%
Damien Taylor run for 4 yds to the GAST 14Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+10
51.6%
Damien Taylor run for 10 yds to the GAST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
51.6%
run for no gain to the GAST 4Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
51.6%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the GAST 4Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
51.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
51.6%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:4452% → 51%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
51.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 17 yds to the GAST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
52.5%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 4 yds to the GAST 46Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
52.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ahmon Green for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 2
50
+3
52.5%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
52.8%
Georgia State Penalty, False Start (Tailique Williams) to the GAST 48Similar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+10
52.1%
Marcus Carroll run for 10 yds to the TROY 42Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 5
OPP 42
-10
52.8%
CARROLL, Marcus rush up the middle for no gain to the TRO42 (MCDONALD, Jayden). PENALTY GSU Holding on BROWN, Jonathan enforced 10 yards from the TRO42 to the GSU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 15
OWN 48
0
52.0%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 15
OWN 48
+6
51.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 6 yds to the TROY 46Similar
Q1 3:23
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
51.3%
Kade Loggins punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 5:1148% → 53%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
51.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TROY 16Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+37
51.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 37 yds to the GAST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
50.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the GAST 46Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+6
50.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Clayton Ollendieck for 6 yds to the GAST 40Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+4
49.6%
Gunnar Watson run for 4 yds to the GAST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
49.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 10 yds to the GAST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
49.0%
Damien Taylor run for 6 yds to the GAST 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
0
49.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+3
49.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 3 yds to the GAST 17Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 17
-5
50.4%
Troy Penalty, False Start (Grant Betts) to the GAST 22Similar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+38
47.2%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:0749% → 60%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
48.9%
Darren Grainger run for 9 yds to the GAST 34Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
50.1%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the GAST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
49.3%
Darren Grainger run for 1 yd to the GAST 37Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
49.2%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+12
48.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 12 yds to the GAST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
50.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jacari Carter for a loss of 4 yards to the GAST 45Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+8
49.1%
Darren Grainger run for 8 yds to the TROY 47Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+19
50.5%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 19 yds to the TROY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
51.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 11 yds to the TROY 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
51.8%
Darren Grainger run for 1 yd to the TROY 16Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
49.3%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+7
47.4%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Peter Kikwata for 7 yds to the TROY 9Similar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+6
46.3%
Marcus Carroll run for 6 yds to the TROY 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
48.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the TROY 1Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.3%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:5444% → 44%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
56.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Landon Parker for 8 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
54.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TROY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
55.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
55.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 7 yds to the TROY 42Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+1
54.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 1 yd to the TROY 43Similar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
56.4%
Robert Cole punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jacari Carter at the GAST 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3158% → 56%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
58.0%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+1
57.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the GAST 20Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+1
56.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ahmon Green for 1 yd to the GAST 21Similar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 8
OWN 21
-5
56.0%
Georgia State Penalty, False Start (Justin Abraham) to the GAST 16Similar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 13
OWN 16
0
55.9%
Kade Loggins punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:0246% → 46%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
54.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 4 yds to the GAST 47Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+1
53.9%
Damien Taylor run for 1 yd to the GAST 46Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
53.8%
Gunnar Watson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4559% → 57%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
58.5%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 2 yds to the GAST 30Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+4
58.4%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jacari Carter for 4 yds to the GAST 34Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
57.9%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
57.2%
Kade Loggins punt for 38 yds, downed at the TROY 28Similar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
56.9%
VIDAL, Kimani rush up the middle for a gain of 12 yards to the TRO40 (SWINT, Kevin). PENALTY TRO Holding on RUSS, Eli enforced 10 yards from the TRO28 to the TRO18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:2642% → 41%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+4
58.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 22Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 16
OWN 22
+8
58.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the TROY 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:0442% → 63%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
57.8%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
58.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+16
59.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 16 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
56.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 9 yds to the TROY 48Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
55.0%
VIDAL, Kimani rush to the left for a gain of 15 yards to the TRO48 (MCCOLLUM, Shamar), 1ST DOWN. PENALTY TRO Holding on BETTS, Grant GSU Horse Collar Tackle on MCCOLLUM, Shamar , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+7
54.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the GAST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
37.0%
Damien Taylor run for 45 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3642% → 42%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
42.4%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the GAST 26Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
42.1%
Darren Grainger pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13MISSED FG
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:3964% → 57%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
36.0%
Damien Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the GAST 28Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+4
35.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Damien Taylor for 4 yds to the GAST 24Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
36.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:41
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
38.6%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
43.0%
GRAINGER, Darren pass deep to the right complete for 51 yards to WILLIAMS, Tailique caught at the TRO38 and advanced to the TRO25 (PETTUS, Dell). PENALTY GSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BROWN, Jonathan enforced 5 yards from the GSU24 to the GSU19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · -3 yds · 3:3443% → 39%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 15
OWN 19
0
42.7%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 15
OWN 19
-4
42.5%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the GAST 15Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 19
OWN 15
+17
41.3%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 17 yds to the GAST 32Similar
Q3 9:41
4TH & 2
OWN 32
+5
42.2%
Travis Glover run for 5 yds to the GAST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
43.9%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-4
43.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Cadarrius Thompson for a loss of 4 yards to the GAST 33Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 14
OWN 33
-12
41.4%
Darren Grainger sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the GAST 21Similar
Q3 6:07
4TH & 26
OWN 21
0
38.9%
Kade Loggins punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 3:2566% → 88%
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
34.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 14 yds to the GAST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
33.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the GAST 39Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+2
33.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the GAST 37Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+4
33.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 4 yds to the GAST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
33.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 13 yds to the GAST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
32.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+6
33.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the GAST 14Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
12.3%
Kimani Vidal 14 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Gunnar Watson Pass to Deyunkrea Lewis for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:5518% → 17%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
17.9%
Darren Grainger run for 11 yds to the GAST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
18.8%
Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the GAST 36Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
18.3%
Marcus Carroll run for 8 yds to the GAST 44Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
19.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the GAST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
20.1%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 7
50
+11
20.1%
Marcus Carroll run for 11 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
18.3%
Darren Grainger run for 3 yds to the TROY 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+2
18.4%
Darren Grainger run for 2 yds to the TROY 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+2
18.7%
Darren Grainger run for 2 yds to the TROY 32Similar
Q4 13:47
4TH & 3
OPP 32
0
17.3%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:2391% → 92%
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
9.0%
Damien Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 35Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+1
9.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the TROY 36Similar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 6
OWN 36
-15
8.9%
Troy Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Kimani Vidal) to the TROY 23Similar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 19
OWN 23
+11
9.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 11 yds to the TROY 34Similar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
7.7%
Robert Cole punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18FUMBLE
7 plays · 66 yds · 3:0314% → 10%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
14.0%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 10 yds to the GAST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
14.9%
Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the GAST 39Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
14.4%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 6 yds to the GAST 45Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+5
15.0%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
50
+49
15.5%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 49 yds to the TROY 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
17.2%
Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the TROY 1Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
10.3%
Darren Grainger run for a loss of 4 yards to the TROY 32 Darren Grainger fumbled, recovered by TROY Jayden McDonaldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19TD
21 plays · 68 yds · 8:1595% → 99%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
5.5%
Damien Taylor run for 1 yd to the TROY 33Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+14
5.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 14 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
5.0%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+4
5.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deyunkrea Lewis for 4 yds to the GAST 47Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+5
5.2%
Gunnar Watson run for 5 yds to the GAST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
5.0%
Troy Penalty, Delay Of Game (Dell Pettus) to the GAST 47Similar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 15
OPP 47
-1
5.0%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 48Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 16
OPP 48
+16
2.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 16 yds to the GAST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
2.2%
WATSON, Gunnar pass to the left incomplete intended for LEWIS, Chris thrown to the GSU21. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on PRINGLE, Gavin enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the GSU21 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
2.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the GAST 17Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
2.1%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the GAST 17Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+10
2.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds to the GAST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
2.1%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the GAST 7Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
0.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the GAST 6Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.8%
Gunnar Watson run for no gain to the GAST 6Similar
Q4 0:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20END OF GAME
1 play · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.3%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the GAST 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:42
Kimani Vidal 14 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Gunnar Watson Pass to Deyunkrea Lewis for Two-Point Conversion)
-20.8
TD · Q3 11:56
Damien Taylor run for 45 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
-17.6
TD · Q2 7:05
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
+11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com