2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadETAM aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreETAM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:51 · Mitchell McGarry punt for 37 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 2:12: Jack Shields pass complete to Dominic Dutton for 40 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — ODU win probability +18.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 6:17: Ethan Sanchez 22 yd FG GOOD — ODU win probability +10.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:28: Josh Magana pass complete to Keith Miller III for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ETAM win probability +23.9 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:27: kickoff for 7 yds — ODU win probability +12.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ETAM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:27: J. Shields takes a knee — ODU win probability +18.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ETAM made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 13:51ETAM 4th & 9 at ETAM 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snapGo for it49.7%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.8%average punt
- Q1 12:21ODU 4th & 23 at ODU 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snapGo for it50.1%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.3%average punt
- Q1 10:30ETAM 4th & 5 at ETAM 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snapGo for it49.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.3%average punt
- Q1 8:59ETAM 4th & 6 at ODU 46, tiedClose callPunted · 49.2% before the snapGo for it49.3%40% to convertField goal49.1%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call49.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 7:46ODU 4th & 4 at ODU 30, tiedClose callPunted · 50.7% before the snapGo for it50.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:26ETAM 4th & 4 at ETAM 49, tiedClose callPunted · 48.8% before the snapGo for it49.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.8%−0.2average punt
- Q1 3:02ETAM 4th & 5 at ODU 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call49.0%42% to convertField goal48.7%−0.242% to makePunt48.6%−0.4average punt
- Q2 14:51ETAM 4th & 11 at ETAM 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snapGo for it46.1%−1.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.2%average punt
- Q2 11:41ETAM 4th & 1 at ODU 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call49.0%70% to convertField goal47.0%−1.927% to makePunt47.7%−1.3average punt
- Q2 5:06ETAM 4th & 2 at ODU 45, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 50.0% before the snapGo for it50.0%57% to convertField goal47.6%−2.425% to makePuntTheir call48.5%−1.6average punt
- Q2 2:09ODU 4th & 3 at ETAM 3, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call54.8%44% to convertField goal53.8%−1.093% to makePunt48.2%−6.6average punt
- Q3 11:03ODU 4th & 7 at ETAM 27, tiedClose callWent for it · 56.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call55.2%−0.536% to convertField goal55.7%62% to makePunt48.4%−7.3average punt
- Q3 9:10ETAM 4th & 11 at ETAM 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snapGo for it44.2%−3.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.4%average punt
- Q3 7:25ODU 4th & 8 at ODU 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snapGo for it50.7%−2.732% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.4%average punt
- Q3 3:48ETAM 4th & 8 at ODU 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.5% before the snapGo for it48.4%−1.233% to convertField goalTheir call49.6%64% to makePunt38.8%−10.8average punt
- Q4 8:06ETAM 4th & 22 at ETAM 17, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snapGo for it21.6%−4.67% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.3%average punt
- Q4 6:17ODU 4th & 5 at ETAM 5, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.6% before the snapGo for it76.9%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call76.9%92% to makePunt59.7%−17.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ETAM made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q3 2:12ODU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.0%97% to makeGo for two65.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 0:28ETAM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryNumbers favored kick by 2.1 ptsWent for two · failedKick41.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call39.0%−2.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartETAMDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0532% → 32%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -13 yds · 1:3068% → 68%
ETAMDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 1:5132% → 32%
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
68.0%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Shamenski Rucker for 10 yds to the TAMC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+25
67.8%
Mitchell McGarry punt for 31 yds , Reymello Murphy returns for 25 yds to the 50 yard line Reymello Murphy fumbled, recovered by TAMC Cameron Nellor , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ETAMDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3133% → 33%
ODUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1368% → 67%
ETAMDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 3:2033% → 33%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ETAMDrive 8DOWNS4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1534% → 34%
Q1 4:17
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+5
66.1%
Josh Magana pass complete to Jabari Khepera for 5 yds to the ODU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9INT5 plays · 45 yds · 1:1867% → 69%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
67.4%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 2 yds to the ODU 38Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+41
67.1%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 41 yds to the TAMC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
68.6%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 1 yd to the TAMC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ETAMDrive 10PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:5334% → 33%
Q2 14:51
4TH & 11
OWN 5
0
67.1%
Mitchell McGarry punt for 46 yds , Reymello Murphy returns for no gain to the ODU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11INT4 plays · 36 yds · 1:3268% → 69%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
68.1%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Kelby Williams for 21 yds to the TAMC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ETAMDrive 12DOWNS5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3836% → 35%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13PUNT10 plays · -1 yds · 4:0568% → 65%
Q2 11:41
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+2
68.5%
Jack Shields pass complete to Devin Roche for 2 yds to the TAMC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
68.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Roche,Devin rush right for 2 yards gain to the TXCC43 (Hurd,Kion) PENALTY ODU Holding (Dubose-Bourne,Stephon) 10 yards from TXCC45 to ODU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-15
68.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Granger,Ahmarian pass complete short right to Granger,Ahmarian for 16 yards to the TXCC28 (Ambers,King) PENALTY ODU Block Below Waist (Roche,Devin) 15 yards from TXCC44 to ODU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 27
OWN 38
-4
66.7%
Jack Shields sacked by Levi Drake Rodriguez for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ETAMDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:3037% → 38%
Q2 7:36
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+10
63.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Magana,Josh pass incomplete short left to Buckner,Jerome QB hurried by Stevens,Sayyid PENALTY ODU Holding (James,LaMareon) 10 yards from TXCC37 to TXCC47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
62.1%
Josh Magana pass complete to Micaleous Elder for 4 yds to the ODU 49Similar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
61.8%
Mitchell McGarry punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Reymello Murphy at the ODU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15DOWNS9 plays · 70 yds · 2:5766% → 67%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+49
66.2%
Jack Shields pass complete to Kelby Williams for 49 yds to the TAMC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+20
69.5%
Jack Shields pass complete to Kelby Williams for 20 yds to the TAMC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
68.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Shields,Jack pass incomplete short middle to Shields,Jack PENALTY ODU Personal Foul offsetting TXCC Pass Interference offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ETAMDrive 16MISSED FG10 plays · 61 yds · 2:0936% → 45%
Q2 1:27
3RD & 11
OWN 10
+13
63.5%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Jabari Khepera for 13 yds to the TAMC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
60.9%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Keith Miller III for 20 yds to the ODU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
57.0%
Adagbon,Emmanuel field goal attempt from 60 yards NO GOOD (H: Nellor,Cameron, LS: Kennard,Josiah), clock 00:00 PENALTY ODU Roughing The Kicker (Johnson,Nolan) 15 yards from ODU43 to ODU28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17DOWNS12 plays · 48 yds · 3:5764% → 64%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.8%
Jack Shields pass complete to Kelby Williams for 4 yds to the ODU 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+17
63.1%
Jack Shields pass complete to Kelby Williams for 17 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
66.5%
Jack Shields pass complete to Kelby Williams for 10 yds to the TAMC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
67.0%
Old Dominion Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 35
-6
66.1%
Jack Shields sacked by Jordan Polk for a loss of 6 yards to the TAMC 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 21
OPP 41
+14
64.3%
Jack Shields pass complete to Dominic Dutton for 14 yds to the TAMC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ETAMDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:5340% → 38%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
59.7%
Reggie Branch sacked by Jason Henderson for a loss of 5 yards to the TAMC 22Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 20
OWN 17
+9
60.5%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Zadock Dinkelmann for 9 yds to the TAMC 26Similar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 11
OWN 26
0
62.3%
Mitchell McGarry punt for 58 yds , Reymello Murphy returns for no gain to the ODU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4562% → 60%
ETAMDrive 20FG8 plays · 32 yds · 3:3744% → 51%
Q3 7:25
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+15
55.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Parrish,Peter pass incomplete deep middle to Khepera,Jabari PENALTY ODU Pass Interference (Johnson,Nolan) 15 yards from ODU43 to ODU28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+2
54.1%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Micaleous Elder for 2 yds to the ODU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21TD6 plays · 84 yds · 1:3252% → 76%
ETAMDrive 22FUMBLE5 plays · 30 yds · 2:0730% → 33%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+39
69.6%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Jabari Khepera for 39 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 35
-9
66.6%
Peter Parrish sacked by Wayne Matthews III for a loss of 9 yards to the ODU 44 Peter Parrish fumbled, recovered by ODU Denzel Lowry , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 23FUMBLE7 plays · 38 yds · 2:3375% → 77%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+9
74.2%
Jack Shields pass complete to Ahmarian Granger for 9 yds to the TAMC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+11
75.9%
Jack Shields pass complete to Devin Roche for 11 yds to the TAMC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
76.8%
Jack Shields pass complete to Jalen Butler for 2 yds to the TAMC 8Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
77.2%
Jack Shields sacked by Jordan Polk for a loss of 10 yards to the TAMC 18 Jack Shields fumbled, recovered by TAMC Darryle Ware , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ETAMDrive 24PUNT7 plays · -1 yds · 4:2130% → 27%
Q4 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
70.5%
Peter Parrish pass complete to Micaleous Elder for 1 yd to the TAMC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 25FG5 plays · 43 yds · 1:4980% → 90%
ETAMDrive 26TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:4914% → 43%
Q4 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
86.0%
Josh Magana pass complete to Jerome Buckner for 7 yds to the TAMC 32Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
85.0%
Josh Magana pass complete to Keith Miller III for 6 yds to the TAMC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
83.7%
Josh Magana pass complete to Jerome Buckner for 4 yds to the TAMC 42Similar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
80.0%
Josh Magana pass complete to Micaleous Elder for 6 yds to the ODU 24Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+13
81.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Magana,Josh pass incomplete short right to Elder,Micaelous PENALTY ODU Pass Interference (Jones,Terry) 13 yards from ODU15 to ODU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
57.2%
Josh Magana pass complete to Keith Miller III for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:28
Josh Magana pass complete to Keith Miller III for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-23.9
TD · Q3 2:12
Jack Shields pass complete to Dominic Dutton for 40 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
+18
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:27
J. Shields takes a knee
+18