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GAST

Georgia State 41 at Charlotte 25

CLT
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:24 · Grant Gonya punt for 38 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Home team on offense−20.1Pregame prior−8.4Score differential−10.3Garbage-time factor−6.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:00: Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jack Hestera for 5 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK) — CLT win probability +13.2 pts (now 32%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:23: Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 78 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK) — GAST win probability +10.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:21: Jalon Jones 58 Yd Run (Jalon Jones Pass to Colin Weber for Two-Point Conversion) — CLT win probability +10.5 pts (now 15%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:30: Henry Rutledge 46 Yd Punt Return (Kyle Cunanan Kick) — CLT win probability +15.2 pts (now 25%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:57: Robert Lewis 38 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick) — GAST win probability +13.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 9 of 11GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:41GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:12CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:29CLT 4th & 4 at CLT 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:56GAST 4th & 7 at CLT 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    62.0%−3.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:16CLT 4th & 3 at GAST 35, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    25.7%−1.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:36CLT 4th & 1 at GAST 1, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    24.8%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−3.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:20GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 7, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:11CLT 4th & 10 at GAST 12, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    18.7%−3.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:54GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 26, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:54CLT 4th & 3 at GAST 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    23.8%−0.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:42CLT 4th & 7 at CLT 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:24CLT 4th & 12 at CLT 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:30GAST 4th & 22 at GAST 13, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−3.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:57CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 34, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.4%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:53CLT 4th & 23 at CLT 40, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−1.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:30GAST 4th & 10 at CLT 44, up 16
    Close callPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    96.8%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:51CLT 4th & 16 at CLT 48, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:44GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:43GAST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:00CLT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:23GAST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:54GAST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:21CLT Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    7.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:30CLT Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:57GAST Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:1971% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
28.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the GAST 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+7
28.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 7 yds to the GAST 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
28.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the GAST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
28.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Marcus Carroll for no gain to the GAST 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
28.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 2 yds to the GAST 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
28.8%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
29.9%
Kade Loggins punt for 34 yds to the CLT 36, returned by Jairus Mack for 1 yard to the CLT 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2DOWNS
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:2930% → 30%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
29.9%
Jalon Jones run for 9 yds to the CLT 46Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-1
30.1%
Shadrick Byrd run for a loss of 1 yard to the CLT 45Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
30.8%
Jalon Jones run for 1 yd to the CLT 46Similar
Q1 11:12
4TH & 1
OWN 46
-2
30.6%
Jairus Mack run for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 44Similar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
30.0%
Charlotte Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the CLT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:2870% → 71%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
29.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the CLT 22Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+7
29.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 7 yds to the CLT 15Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+3
30.0%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jacari Carter for 3 yds to the CLT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
29.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the CLT 10Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+2
29.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the CLT 8Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+8
28.7%
Darren Grainger run for 8 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:1529% → 30%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
29.3%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jack Hestera for 1 yd to the CLT 26Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
29.2%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Colin Weber for 15 yds to the CLT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
29.7%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Shadrick Byrd for 1 yd to the CLT 42Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+5
29.6%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Shadrick Byrd for 5 yds to the CLT 47Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
29.7%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:29
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
29.6%
Grant Gonya punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5FG
17 plays · 72 yds · 6:3371% → 72%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
29.4%
Darren Grainger run for 7 yds to the GAST 27Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+1
29.0%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the GAST 28Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-5
29.2%
Georgia State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GAST 23Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+34
29.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 34 yds to the CLT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
28.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 1 yd to the CLT 42Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+9
28.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Kris Byrd for 9 yds to the CLT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
28.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the CLT 32Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+5
28.6%
Darren Grainger run for 5 yds to the CLT 27Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+5
28.6%
Darren Grainger run for 5 yds to the CLT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
28.5%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+11
28.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 11 yds to the CLT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
28.5%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ahmon Green for a loss of 1 yard to the CLT 12Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+2
28.0%
Darren Grainger run for 2 yds to the CLT 10Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+7
28.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 7 yds to the CLT 3Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 3
-5
29.3%
Georgia State Penalty, Delay Of Game (TyGee Leach) to the CLT 8Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
28.2%
Liam Rickman 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6INT
4 plays · 37 yds · 1:0128% → 29%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.1%
Durell Robinson run for 5 yds to the CLT 30Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
28.3%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+32
28.0%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jairus Mack for 32 yds to the GAST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
28.9%
Trexler Ivey pass intercepted by Gavin Pringle at the GSU 4, returned to the GSU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7TD
1 play · 97 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+97
21.3%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 97 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8DOWNS
13 plays · 72 yds · 6:0723% → 24%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
22.6%
Terron Kellman run for a loss of 1 yard to the CLT 24Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+34
22.6%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Bryce Kennon for 34 yds to the GAST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
23.7%
Terron Kellman run for no gain to the GAST 42Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
23.7%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jack Hestera for 6 yds to the GAST 36Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+1
22.9%
Terron Kellman run for 1 yd to the GAST 35Similar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+17
24.9%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jack Hestera for 17 yds to the GAST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
25.9%
Durell Robinson run for 3 yds to the GAST 15Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+12
25.9%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Colin Weber for 12 yds to the GAST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
26.1%
Durell Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the GAST 5Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
25.9%
Durell Robinson run for 4 yds to the GAST 1Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
25.4%
Durell Robinson run for no gain to the GAST 1Similar
Q2 7:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
24.3%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Joey Bearns III for a loss of 2 yards to the GAST 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:1676% → 74%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
24.3%
Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the GAST 3Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
24.5%
Darren Grainger run for no gain to the GAST 3Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+9
24.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ahmon Green for 9 yds to the GAST 12Similar
Q2 7:36
4TH & 1
OWN 12
-5
26.0%
Georgia State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Gavin Pringle) to the GAST 7Similar
Q2 5:20
4TH & 6
OWN 7
0
25.9%
Kade Loggins punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10FG
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:0924% → 24%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+37
23.5%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jack Hestera for 37 yds to the GAST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
24.4%
Durell Robinson run for 2 yds to the GAST 10Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+3
24.4%
Durell Robinson run for 3 yds to the GAST 7Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 5
OPP 7
-5
23.7%
Charlotte Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GAST 12Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
23.4%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:11
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+30
23.7%
Kyle Cunanan 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:1781% → 82%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
19.3%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for no gain to the GAST 17Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+5
18.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the GAST 22Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 5
OWN 22
-10
19.0%
Georgia State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GAST 12Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 15
OWN 12
+14
19.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 14 yds to the GAST 26Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
17.7%
Kade Loggins punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12TD
8 plays · 42 yds · 0:5418% → 32%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
18.4%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
18.3%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 7 yds to the GAST 35Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
18.0%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+7
17.7%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 7 yds to the GAST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
19.1%
IVEY, Trexler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HESTERA, Jack thrown to the GSU2. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on PRINGLE, Gavin enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the GSU14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
19.1%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jack Reynolds for 9 yds to the GAST 5Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 1
OPP 5
0
19.1%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
32.2%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jack Hestera for 5 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 1:0073% → 78%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
26.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 10 yds to the GAST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
26.2%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
26.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jacari Carter for 10 yds to the GAST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
25.0%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ahmon Green for 6 yds to the CLT 49Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+5
24.3%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 5 yds to the CLT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
23.9%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+16
26.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 16 yds to the CLT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+46
22.2%
Liam Rickman 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:1825% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
25.1%
Shadrick Byrd run for 5 yds to the CLT 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-4
25.5%
Shadrick Byrd run for a loss of 4 yards to the CLT 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+12
24.1%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Shadrick Byrd for 12 yds to the CLT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
26.0%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-13
25.9%
Trexler Ivey sacked by Josiah Robinson for a loss of 13 yards to the CLT 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 23
OWN 25
+16
24.0%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jack Hestera for 16 yds to the CLT 41Similar
Q3 11:42
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
23.7%
Grant Gonya punt for 44 yds, downed at the GAST 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15TD
4 plays · 93 yds · 1:1975% → 86%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-7
24.9%
CARROLL, Marcus rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the GSU14 (KNIGHT II, Demetrius;BEMAH, Prince). PENALTY GSU Personal Foul on BROWN, Jonathan enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the GSU7 to the GSU4 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 13
OWN 4
+6
24.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 6 yds to the GAST 10Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+12
24.9%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 12 yds to the GAST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+78
14.0%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 78 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:5915% → 14%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+27
14.8%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jack Hestera for 27 yds to the CLT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
16.3%
Durell Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the CLT 48Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 11
OWN 48
-12
15.5%
Trexler Ivey sacked by Gavin Pringle for a loss of 12 yards to the CLT 36Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 23
OWN 36
+11
14.1%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Bryce Kennon for 11 yds to the CLT 47Similar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
14.3%
Grant Gonya punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:3088% → 98%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
11.7%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the GAST 22Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
11.7%
Darren Grainger run for 3 yds to the GAST 25Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+11
11.9%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jacari Carter for 11 yds to the GAST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
11.4%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
11.5%
Marcus Carroll run for 4 yds to the GAST 40Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+59
11.3%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 59 yds to the CLT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
10.4%
Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the CLT 1Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.2%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18TD
3 plays · 88 yds · 1:334% → 15%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+18
4.2%
Henry Rutledge run for 18 yds to the CLT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
4.3%
Henry Rutledge run for 12 yds to the CLT 42 Henry Rutledge fumbled, recovered by CLT Jonny King for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
14.9%
Jalon Jones 58 Yd Run (Jalon Jones Pass to Colin Weber for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19PUNT TD
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:5191% → 76%
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
9.2%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the GAST 26Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
9.2%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
9.3%
Georgia State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Darren Grainger) to the GAST 13Similar
Q3 1:30
4TH & 22
OWN 13
+46
24.5%
Henry Rutledge 46 Yd Punt Return (Kyle Cunanan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3377% → 95%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
22.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 4 yds to the GAST 29Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
22.2%
Darren Grainger run for 7 yds to the GAST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
20.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the GAST 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+14
19.9%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jacari Carter for 14 yds to the CLT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
19.2%
Marcus Carroll run for 12 yds to the CLT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
19.1%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for a loss of 1 yard to the CLT 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 37
-1
19.1%
Darren Grainger sacked by Miguel Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the CLT 38Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 12
OPP 38
+38
5.4%
Robert Lewis 38 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 5:0411% → 6%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
10.8%
Terron Kellman run for 3 yds to the CLT 28Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
11.2%
Terron Kellman run for 1 yd to the CLT 29Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
11.1%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Bryce Kennon for 5 yds to the CLT 34Similar
Q4 12:57
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
11.4%
Jalon Jones run for 4 yds to the CLT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
12.0%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 1 yd to the CLT 39Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+14
11.9%
Jalon Jones run for 4 yds to the GAST 43 for a 1ST down Georgia State Penalty, Defensive Holding (TyGee Leach) to the GAST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
12.6%
Trexler Ivey sacked by Kevin Swint for a loss of 5 yards to the CLT 48Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 15
OWN 48
-8
11.4%
Trexler Ivey sacked by Jeremiah Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the CLT 40Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 23
OWN 40
0
11.0%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 23
OWN 40
0
6.1%
Grant Gonya punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22PUNT
13 plays · 36 yds · 5:2396% → 98%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
4.0%
KZ Adams run for 3 yds to the GAST 23Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
4.0%
KZ Adams run for 6 yds to the GAST 29Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
4.1%
GRAINGER, Darren pass deep to the right intercepted by FAGAN, Dontez at the CLT40 intended for LEWIS, Robert. Fagan return for 34 yards to the GSU26 (GLAUSIER, Seth). PENALTY CLT Offsides on JACKSON, Miguel enforced 5 yards from the GSU29 to the GSU34 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
4.0%
KZ Adams run for 2 yds to the GAST 36Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-1
2.8%
KZ Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 35Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+21
3.0%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Avion McBride for 21 yds to the CLT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
2.6%
KZ Adams run for 3 yds to the CLT 41Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+3
2.6%
KZ Adams run for 3 yds to the CLT 38Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 4
OPP 38
-1
1.7%
KZ Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the CLT 39Similar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 5
OPP 39
-5
1.8%
LOGGINS, Kade punt 34 yards to the CLT5 downed by ABRAHAM, Justin. PENALTY Before the snap, GSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the CLT39 to the CLT44. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
1.8%
Kade Loggins punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:392% → 2%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
2.4%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Shadrick Byrd for 19 yds to the CLT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
2.5%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+15
2.5%
JONES, Jalon sacked for a loss of 13 yards at the CLT26 (MCCOLLUM, Shamar). PENALTY GSU Personal Foul on MCCOLLUM, Shamar enforced 15 yards from the CLT39 to the GSU46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
2.6%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-10
2.6%
JONES, Jalon pass up the middle complete for 21 yards to BYRD, Shadrick caught at the GSU47 and advanced to the GSU25 (LEACH, TyGee). PENALTY CLT Holding on WILLIAMS, Kevin enforced 10 yards from the GSU46 to the CLT44 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 20
OWN 44
+4
2.4%
Jalon Jones run for 4 yds to the CLT 48Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 16
OWN 48
0
2.4%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 16
OWN 48
+11
2.0%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Shadrick Byrd for 11 yds Shadrick Byrd fumbled, recovered by GAST Bryquice BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:5199% → 99%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
1.2%
[NH] Kneel down by GSU at CLT41 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 41
0
1.2%
[NH] Kneel down by GSU at CLT42 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:30
Henry Rutledge 46 Yd Punt Return (Kyle Cunanan Kick)
+15.2
TD · Q4 12:57
Robert Lewis 38 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)
-13.8
TD · Q2 1:00
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jack Hestera for 5 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
+13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com