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NCSU

NC State 35 at Virginia Tech 28

VT
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-7.1VT 51.4%Brennan Armstrong pass complete toKevin Concepcion for 3 yds for a TD(Brayden Narveson KICK)AWAY 7 - HOME 0 · Q2 12:04
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:04 · Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 3 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 40Home team on offense−5.1Score differential−1.5Garbage-time factor−1.2Pregame prior+8.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:26: Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw run for 47 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +14.6 pts (now 51%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:18: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 28 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — NCSU win probability +13.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:10: Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 42 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +13.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:53: Kevin Concepcion pass complete to Trent Pennix for 17 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — NCSU win probability +13.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:40: Kyron Drones pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 13 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +21.4 pts (now 25%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:04VT 4th & 9 at VT 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:12NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:34VT 4th & 8 at VT 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:24NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:11VT 4th & 5 at VT 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:04NCSU 4th & 1 at VT 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.6%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    41.2%−1.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:40VT 4th & 14 at VT 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:58VT 4th & 12 at VT 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−2.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:08NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 43, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:34VT 4th & 5 at NCSU 19, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    5.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−4.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:57NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 42, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:19NCSU 4th & 23 at NCSU 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−2.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:54NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 12:04NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:46NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:26VT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:18NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:03NCSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:10VT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:53NCSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:03VT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:40VT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.1%−2.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5662% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.6%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 2 yds to the VT 27Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
61.6%
Kyron Drones run for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 26Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
61.5%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for no gain to the VT 26Similar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
61.4%
Peter Moore punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:4639% → 38%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
61.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 9 yds to the NCSU 38Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+8
61.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
61.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the NCSU 49Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-2
61.1%
Kevin Concepcion run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 47Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
61.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:12
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
61.6%
Caden Noonkester punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:3162% → 61%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
61.5%
Jaylin Lane run for 9 yds to the VT 29Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+11
61.8%
Kyron Drones run for 11 yds to the VT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
61.8%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 3 yds to the VT 43Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-1
62.0%
Kyron Drones run for a loss of 1 yard to the VT 42Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
61.3%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
61.0%
Peter Moore punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 4:0339% → 39%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
61.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dacari Collins for 6 yds to the NCSU 21Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+5
61.1%
Kevin Concepcion run for 5 yds to the NCSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
61.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 3 yds to the NCSU 29Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+2
60.9%
Delbert Mimms III run for 2 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+10
61.1%
(04:53) ARMSTRONG, Brennan pass to the right incomplete intended for COLLINS, Dacari thrown to the NCS45, clock 04:49. PENALTY VT Holding on CANTEEN, Derrick enforced 10 yards from the NCS31 to the NCS41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
60.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the NCSU 41Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
60.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the NCSU 46Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
60.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:24
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
61.0%
Caden Noonkester punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:1061% → 60%
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
61.0%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 3 yds to the VT 18Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+8
61.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 8 yds to the VT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
61.4%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
61.2%
Jaylin Lane run for 5 yds to the VT 31Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
61.0%
Kyron Drones run for no gain to the VT 31Similar
Q1 1:11
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
60.4%
Peter Moore punt for 33 ydsSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
59.9%
(01:09) ARMSTRONG, Brennan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for VEREEN, Juice thrown to the VT40, clock 01:03. PENALTY VT Pass Interference on JONES, Jaylen enforced 15 yards to the VT49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:3541% → 49%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
58.8%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the VT 49Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+16
58.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 16 yds to the VT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
58.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Trent Pennix for 21 yds to the VT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
58.0%
Kevin Concepcion run for 4 yds to the VT 8Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+4
57.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 4 yds to the VT 4Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
58.3%
Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd to the VT 3Similar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
51.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 3 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 2:1653% → 50%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
52.7%
Bhayshul Tuten run for a loss of 6 yards to the VT 19Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
52.1%
(11:21) TUTEN, Bhayshul rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the VT28 (FORDHAM, Caden;KENNEDY, Robert), clock 11:15. PENALTY VT Illegal Shift declined VT Holding on MOORE, Kaden enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the VT19 to the VT10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 25
OWN 10
+3
52.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 3 yds to the VT 13Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 22
OWN 13
-5
51.0%
Virginia Tech Penalty, False Start (Peter Moore) to the VT 8Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 27
OWN 8
+13
50.5%
Kyron Drones run for 13 yds to the VT 21Similar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
49.7%
Peter Moore punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 4:4951% → 64%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
49.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 6 yds to the NCSU 46Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+13
48.7%
Brennan Armstrong run for 13 yds to the VT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
47.9%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the VT 37Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+9
45.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 9 yds to the VT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+20
45.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for 20 yds to the VT 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
44.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the VT 4Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
44.2%
Delbert Mimms III run for 3 yds to the VT 1Similar
Q2 4:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9TD
1 play · 47 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
50.6%
Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw run for 47 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:0854% → 74%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
46.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
44.8%
Kevin Concepcion run for 11 yds to the NCSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
42.5%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the NCSU 44Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+6
41.5%
Kevin Concepcion run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 2
50
+5
40.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the VT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
39.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 15
50
+7
41.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 7 yds to the VT 43Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
39.9%
(01:13) ARMSTRONG, Brennan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ROOKS, Porter thrown to the VT20, clock 01:08. PENALTY Before the snap, NCS Delay Of Game enforced 5 yards from the VT45 to the NCS50. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+9
41.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Porter Rooks for 9 yds to the VT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
39.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
39.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the VT 28Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+28
25.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 28 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
33.6%
(00:11) Kneel down by DRONES, Kyron at VT20 (team loss of 1), clock 00:05.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:5768% → 91%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
32.2%
Delbert Mimms III run for 4 yds to the NCSU 29Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
31.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dacari Collins for 8 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
30.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
30.4%
Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the NCSU 43Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+21
28.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 21 yds to the VT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
27.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 9 yds to the VT 27Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 1
OPP 27
-5
25.9%
NC State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VT 32Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+9
25.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 9 yds to the VT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
24.6%
Delbert Mimms III run for a loss of 2 yards to the VT 25Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 12
OPP 25
0
22.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+23
23.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Delbert Mimms III for 23 yds to the VT 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
22.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the VT 1Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13TD
2 plays · 76 yds · 0:4614% → 28%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+34
14.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 34 yds to the NCSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
28.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 42 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 2:1777% → 94%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for no gain to the NCSU 25Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
22.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 15 yds to the NCSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+43
19.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 43 yds to the VT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
6.0%
Kevin Concepcion pass complete to Trent Pennix for 17 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5510% → 8%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
9.5%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
9.1%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-2
9.0%
Kyron Drones sacked by Payton Wilson for a loss of 2 yards to the VT 26Similar
Q3 4:58
4TH & 12
OWN 26
0
8.3%
Peter Moore punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4594% → 95%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
6.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 3 yds to the NCSU 28Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
6.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds to the NCSU 30Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
5.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 13 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
4.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
4.7%
Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the NCSU 43Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
4.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:08
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
4.8%
Caden Noonkester punt for 28 yds, downed at the VT 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:257% → 6%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
6.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 11 yds to the VT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
6.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 17 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
6.3%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+19
6.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 19 yds to the NCSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
6.4%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
6.1%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
5.9%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+5
5.7%
(14:44) DRONES, Kyron pass deep to the right incomplete intended for FELTON, Da'Quan thrown to the NCS0, clock 14:37. PENALTY NCS Offsides on HIBBLER, Red enforced 5 yards from the NCS24 to the NCS19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:34
4TH & 5
OPP 19
0
5.9%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 3:3796% → 97%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
3.8%
Kevin Concepcion run for 11 yds to the NCSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
3.6%
Delbert Mimms III run for 13 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
3.2%
Delbert Mimms III run for no gain to the NCSU 43Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-3
3.0%
Delbert Mimms III run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSU 40Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+2
2.7%
Kevin Concepcion run for 2 yds to the NCSU 42Similar
Q4 10:57
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
2.6%
Caden Noonkester punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 3:463% → 10%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
3.1%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+10
3.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 10 yds to the VT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
3.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 4 yds to the VT 22Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
3.0%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+10
2.9%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 10 yds to the VT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
2.8%
DRONES, Kyron pass deep to the left intercepted by BOYKIN, Devan at the NCS49 intended for GOSNELL, Stephen. Boykin return for 45 yards to the VT6, out of bounds, clock 08:49. PENALTY NCS Pass Interference on BOYKIN, Devan enforced 15 yards to the VT47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
3.0%
Kyron Drones run for 8 yds to the NCSU 45Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+17
3.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Tucker Holloway for 17 yds to the NCSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
3.3%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+16
3.1%
Malachi Thomas run for 16 yds to the NCSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
9.6%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 12 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 2:4495% → 96%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
4.9%
(07:03) QB Keeper ARMSTRONG, Brennan rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the NCS29 (TISDALE, Alan;JONES, Jaylen), clock 06:59. PENALTY NCS Holding on EASON, Derrick enforced 10 yards from the NCS25 to the NCS15 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-1
4.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 14Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+4
4.4%
Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds to the NCSU 18Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 17
OWN 18
-6
4.2%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Norell Pollard for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSU 12Similar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
3.7%
Caden Noonkester punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:024% → 4%
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
50
0
4.3%
Kyron Drones pass intercepted Bishop Fitzgerald return for no gain to the NCSU 22Similar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
3.5%
NC State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:0797% → 98%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+9
3.5%
Kevin Concepcion run for 9 yds to the NCSU 26Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+1
2.6%
Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd to the NCSU 27Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-2
2.6%
Kevin Concepcion run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 25Similar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
2.4%
Caden Noonkester punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 1:093% → 25%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+22
3.0%
Kyron Drones run for 22 yds to the NCSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+20
3.4%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 20 yds to the NCSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
3.5%
Kyron Drones run for 1 yd to the NCSU 13Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
24.9%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 13 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
5 plays · -21 yds · 0:4095% → 95%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-9
4.9%
Brennan Armstrong run for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSU 43Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 19
OWN 43
-6
5.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSU 37Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 25
OWN 37
-6
5.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:40
Kyron Drones pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 13 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
+21.4
TD · Q2 4:26
Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw run for 47 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
+14.6
TD · Q3 8:10
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 42 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
+13.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com