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MIA

Miami 6 at NC State 20

NCSU
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDFGFGEnd of GameTD+22NCSU 94.3%Kendrick Raphael run for 31 yds for aTD (Brayden Narveson KICK)AWAY 6 - HOME 17 · Q4 5:03
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:03 · Kendrick Raphael run for 31 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Pregame prior−2.0Home team on offense+24.8Garbage-time factor+13.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.6Score differential+5.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 6:57: Andres Borregales 48 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +1.9 pts (now 30%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:17: MJ Morris pass complete to Jordan Poole for 12 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — NCSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 36%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:51: Timeout Miami, clock 09:51 — NCSU win probability +8.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:03: Kendrick Raphael run for 31 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — NCSU win probability +22.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:37: Brayden Narveson 19 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:03NCSU 4th & 15 at NCSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:57MIA 4th & 5 at NCSU 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.4%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:14NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 26, down 3
    Close callPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:23MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:09MIA 4th & 7 at NCSU 9, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    52.6%−3.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:55NCSU 4th & 21 at MIA 21, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−2.5
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    44.7%−4.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:23MIA 4th & 15 at MIA 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:26MIA 4th & 3 at NCSU 27, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.5%−0.9
    62% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−6.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:44NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:36MIA 4th & 6 at MIA 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:52NCSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 37, up 4
    Close callPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:28MIA 4th & 13 at MIA 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−3.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:22NCSU 4th & 13 at NCSU 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−3.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:47MIA 4th & 1 at NCSU 3, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.7%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    34.4%−4.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−18.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:52MIA 4th & 18 at MIA 33, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%−0.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:37NCSU 4th & 1 at MIA 1, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.2%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 2:17NCSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 5:03NCSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:5727% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.1%
Kevin Concepcion run for 3 yds to the NCSU 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
27.1%
MJ Morris pass complete to Michael Allen for 11 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 24
0
27.1%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 25
OWN 24
+7
27.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 7 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 31
+3
27.1%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 3 yds to the NCSU 34Similar
Q1 12:03
4TH & 15
OWN 34
+9
28.3%
Caden Noonkester punt for 48 yds , Xavier Restrepo returns for 9 yds to the MIA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 5:0672% → 70%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
28.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the MIA 32Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+3
28.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 3 yds to the MIA 35Similar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+8
28.4%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 8 yds to the MIA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
28.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Colbie YoungSimilar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+10
28.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 10 yds to the NCSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
28.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSU 42Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
28.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Colbie YoungSimilar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+7
28.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 7 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
28.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
28.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSU 30Similar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
28.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Cam McCormickSimilar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+48
30.1%
Andres Borregales 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3830% → 30%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 15
OWN 13
0
30.1%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 15
OWN 13
+6
30.0%
Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the NCSU 19Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+7
29.7%
MJ Morris run for 7 yds to the NCSU 26Similar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
30.0%
Caden Noonkester punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Xavier Restrepo at the MIA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5169% → 68%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
30.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 29Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
30.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Mark Fletcher Jr.Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
31.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Colbie YoungSimilar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
31.7%
Dylan Joyce punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 2:0631% → 36%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+36
30.9%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 36 yds to the MIA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
32.0%
MJ Morris pass complete to Terrell Timmons Jr. for 15 yds to the MIA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
32.3%
Kevin Concepcion run for 9 yds to the MIA 12Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 1
OPP 12
0
32.3%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Trent PennixSimilar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+12
35.6%
MJ Morris pass complete to Jordan Poole for 12 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 4:0865% → 64%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
34.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 18 yds to the MIA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
33.7%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 16 yds to the NCSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
33.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 19 yds to the NCSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
34.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the NCSU 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 25
0
34.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Riley WilliamsSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
34.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSU 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+7
34.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Robert Stafford for 7 yds to the NCSU 4Similar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
36.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Jacolby GeorgeSimilar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+27
36.0%
Andres Borregales 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:4237% → 38%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
37.3%
Kevin Concepcion run for 1 yd to the NCSU 26Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+17
37.0%
MJ Morris pass complete to Dacari Collins for 17 yds to the NCSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
37.9%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
37.7%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-9
38.2%
MJ Morris sacked by Jaden Davis for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSU 29 MJ Morris fumbled, recovered by MIA Jared Harrison-Hunte , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:3065% → 64%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
35.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 11 yds to the NCSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
35.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Brashard SmithSimilar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+1
35.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSU 17Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
36.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9INT
5 plays · 30 yds · 2:1639% → 44%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
39.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 9 yds to the NCSU 29Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
40.5%
Kevin Concepcion run for 3 yds to the NCSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
39.7%
Shotgun Morris,MJ pass incomplete deep right to Timmons, Jr.,Terrell PENALTY MIAMI Pass Interference (Brown,Davonte) 15 yards from NCSU32 to NCSU47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
41.1%
Kevin Concepcion run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 7
50
0
43.9%
MJ Morris pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:4060% → 57%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
40.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 11 yds to the MIA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
40.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 23Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+2
40.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 25Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 6
OWN 25
-10
40.8%
Shotgun Van Dyke,Tyler rush middle for 15 yards gain to the MIAMI40 (Boykin,Devan) PENALTY MIAMI Holding (Cohen,Javion) 10 yards from MIAMI25 to MIAMI15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 16
OWN 15
-6
43.1%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Red Hibbler for a loss of 6 yards to the MIA 9 Tyler Van Dyke fumbled, recovered by MIA Davin Vann , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11FG
5 plays · -12 yds · 2:0647% → 45%
Q2 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-8
47.0%
MJ Morris sacked by Francisco Mauigoa for a loss of 8 yards to the MIA 17Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 27
+7
45.8%
Brennan Armstrong run for 7 yds to the MIA 20Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
+1
44.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the MIA 21Similar
Q2 2:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 21
+39
45.4%
Brayden Narveson 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 2:3254% → 50%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
46.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the MIA 31Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
44.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 10 yds to the MIA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
44.0%
PENALTY MIAMI False Start (Cooper,Anez) 5 yards from MIAMI41 to MIAMI36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 15
OWN 36
0
45.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for no gain to the MIA 36Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 15
OWN 36
0
46.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Cam McCormickSimilar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 15
OWN 36
0
47.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Cam McCormick for no gain to the MIA 36Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 15
OWN 36
0
49.9%
Dylan Joyce punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
48.2%
M. Morris takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14MISSED FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 4:3453% → 50%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
47.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 9 yds to the MIA 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
44.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 9 yds to the MIA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
44.9%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
50
+16
43.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 16 yds to the NCSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
42.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSU 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
42.4%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for no gain to the NCSU 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+5
43.8%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSU 27Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+45
50.2%
Andres Borregales 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15PUNT
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:4254% → 53%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
54.0%
Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the NCSU 28Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
53.9%
MJ Morris run for no gain to the NCSU 28Similar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
52.9%
Caden Noonkester punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0847% → 44%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-8
52.7%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Davin Vann for a loss of 8 yards to the MIA 27Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 18
OWN 27
+4
54.2%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 4 yds to the MIA 31Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+8
55.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Cam McCormick for 8 yds to the MIA 39Similar
Q3 6:36
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
56.2%
Dylan Joyce punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4457% → 57%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
57.3%
MJ Morris pass complete to Julian Gray for 2 yds to the NCSU 32Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
57.3%
MJ Morris pass complete to Trent Pennix for 5 yds to the NCSU 37Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
57.9%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Terrell Timmons Jr.Similar
Q3 4:52
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
56.8%
Caden Noonkester punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Xavier Restrepo at the MIA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2444% → 40%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
56.2%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 20Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 8
OWN 20
-5
56.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Fletcher Jr.,Mark rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIAMI24 (Kennedy,Robert; Fordham,Caden) PENALTY MIAMI Illegal Formation 5 yards from MIAMI20 to MIAMI15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 13
OWN 15
0
56.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Donald Chaney Jr.Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 13
OWN 15
0
58.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Brashard SmithSimilar
Q3 3:28
4TH & 13
OWN 15
0
60.4%
Dylan Joyce punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0663% → 58%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
62.5%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Terrell Timmons Jr.Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
61.2%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 3 yds to the NCSU 37Similar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 13
OWN 37
0
58.8%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q3 2:22
4TH & 13
OWN 37
+8
58.4%
Caden Noonkester punt for 46 yds , Xavier Restrepo returns for 8 yds to the MIA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20DOWNS
14 plays · 72 yds · 7:3542% → 38%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
58.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 13 yds to the MIA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
56.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 9 yds to the MIA 47Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+2
53.0%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
55.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 13 yds to the NCSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
54.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 13 yds to the NCSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
52.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Riley Williams for 1 yd to the NCSU 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+1
52.6%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSU 23Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+11
55.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 11 yds to the NCSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
52.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for no gain to the NCSU 12Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
52.1%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSU 7Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+4
54.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mark Fletcher Jr. for 4 yds to the NCSU 3Similar
Q4 9:47
4TH & 1
OPP 3
0
62.5%
Mark Fletcher Jr. run for no gain to the NCSU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 97 yds · 4:4467% → 94%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
67.4%
Delbert Mimms III run for no gain to the NCSU 3Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+3
67.1%
Kevin Concepcion run for 3 yds to the NCSU 6Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+16
65.5%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 16 yds to the NCSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
68.3%
Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds to the NCSU 26Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+4
68.4%
MJ Morris run for 4 yds to the NCSU 30Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+30
67.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 15 yds to the MIA 45 for a 1ST down Miami Penalty, unnecessary roughness (James Williams) to the MIA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
72.3%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 9 yds to the MIA 31Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+31
94.3%
Kendrick Raphael run for 31 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22INT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:029% → 6%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
91.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Jacolby GeorgeSimilar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-8
91.6%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by C.J. Clark for a loss of 8 yards to the MIA 33Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 18
OWN 33
0
93.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 18
OWN 33
0
94.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23FG
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:1595% → 99%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
95.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the MIA 9Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+7
95.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 7 yds to the MIA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.8%
Miami Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Leonard Taylor III) to the MIA 1Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.0%
Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd to the MIA 2Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
97.6%
MJ Morris run for 1 yd to the MIA 1Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
99.0%
Brayden Narveson 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24INT
7 plays · 34 yds · 1:302% → 2%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Donald Chaney Jr. for 4 yds to the MIA 29Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
98.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Donald Chaney Jr. for 1 yd to the MIA 30Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
98.5%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 7 yds to the MIA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
98.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 18 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
98.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 4 yds to the NCSU 41Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
98.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:03
Kendrick Raphael run for 31 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
+22
KEY PLAY · Q4 9:51
Timeout Miami, clock 09:51
+8.2
TD · Q1 2:17
MJ Morris pass complete to Jordan Poole for 12 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
+3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com