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NCSU

NC State 3 at Duke 24

DUKE
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:44 · Porter Wilson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Home team on offense+28.2Score differential+19.9Pregame prior+4.4Garbage-time factor+10.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+4.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:26: Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 69 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +2.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 12:45: Todd Pelino 52 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +2.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:36: Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jeremiah Hasley for 8 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +7.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 11:36: Kendrick Raphael run for 5 yds to the NCSU 30 — NCSU win probability +2.7 pts (now 25%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:47: Jordan Waters run for 83 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +9.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 13:04NCSU 4th & 10 at DUKE 38, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.8%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:57DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:13NCSU 4th & 5 at DUKE 45, up 3
    Close callPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    39.7%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:25NCSU 4th & 10 at DUKE 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    37.1%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:45DUKE 4th & 13 at NCSU 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:48NCSU 4th & 12 at DUKE 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    24.3%−1.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:50DUKE 4th & 12 at NCSU 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:23NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 7, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−1.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:34DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:04NCSU 4th & 17 at midfield, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:56NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:05DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 30, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:05NCSU 4th & 11 at DUKE 44, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%−0.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    3.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:44DUKE 4th & 15 at DUKE 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:25NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.3%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:08NCSU 4th & 3 at DUKE 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:26DUKE 4th & 5 at NCSU 36, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:23NCSU 4th & 14 at DUKE 30, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:26DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:36DUKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:47DUKE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:2867% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.9%
Henry Belin IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
66.9%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the DUKE 25Similar
Q1 14:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
66.8%
Henry Belin IV pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1833% → 33%
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
66.8%
MJ Morris pass complete to Keyon Lesane for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 39Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+1
66.6%
Ii Demarcus Jones run for 1 yd to the DUKE 38Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
66.6%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 10
OPP 38
+57
66.6%
Brayden Narveson 57 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0767% → 66%
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.5%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the DUKE 25Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
66.4%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jordan Moore for 9 yds to the DUKE 34Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
66.4%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the DUKE 34Similar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
66.0%
Porter Wilson punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:3734% → 35%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
66.1%
NC State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSU 19Similar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+6
66.1%
Michael Allen run for 6 yds to the NCSU 25Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+10
66.0%
MJ Morris pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 10 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
65.8%
Kevin Concepcion run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
50
-5
65.2%
NC State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSU 45Similar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+1
65.4%
MJ Morris run for 1 yd to the NCSU 46Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+9
65.4%
MJ Morris run for 9 yds to the DUKE 45Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
64.7%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
65.2%
Caden Noonkester punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5TD
2 plays · 90 yds · 0:4065% → 67%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+21
65.1%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jeremiah Hasley for 21 yds to the DUKE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
67.1%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 69 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 4:0133% → 33%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
67.1%
MJ Morris pass complete to Julian Gray for 8 yds to the NCSU 33Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
66.7%
Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
66.9%
Kevin Concepcion run for 21 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
66.2%
NC State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 49Similar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+2
66.6%
MJ Morris run for 2 yds to the DUKE 47Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 13
OPP 47
0
66.5%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+8
67.0%
MJ Morris run for 8 yds to the DUKE 39Similar
Q1 2:39
4TH & 5
OPP 39
-5
66.6%
NC State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 44Similar
Q1 2:25
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
66.9%
Caden Noonkester punt for 40 yds, downed at the DUKE 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:3267% → 70%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
66.6%
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 3Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 11
OWN 3
0
66.5%
Duke Penalty, False Start (Yards) to the DUKE 2Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 12
OWN 2
+15
66.5%
(01:16) BELIN IV, Henry pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MOORE, Jordan thrown to the DU45; QB hurried by BROWN, Sean. PENALTY NSU Pass Interference on BATTLE, Shyheim enforced 15 yards to the DU17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
66.8%
Jaquez Moore run for 16 yds to the DUKE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
66.9%
Henry Belin IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+15
66.8%
(00:42) BELIN IV, Henry pass up the middle incomplete intended for MOORE, Jordan thrown to the DU43; QB hurried by JACKSON, Savion. PENALTY NSU Roughing the Passer on JACKSON, Savion enforced 15 yards from the DU33 to the DU48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
67.8%
Jordan Waters run for 20 yds to the NCSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
68.4%
Duke Penalty, False Start (Jordan Moore) to the NCSU 37Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 37
-10
67.8%
(15:00) BELIN IV, Henry pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CALHOUN, Jalon thrown to the NSU0; QB hurried by SCOTT, Jaylon. PENALTY DU Holding on BARTON, Graham enforced 10 yards from the NSU37 to the NSU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 25
OPP 47
+3
67.7%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the NCSU 44Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 22
OPP 44
+6
67.5%
Henry Belin IV run for 6 yds to the NCSU 38Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 16
OPP 38
+3
67.0%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the NCSU 35Similar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 13
OPP 35
+52
69.5%
Todd Pelino 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:4830% → 30%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
69.8%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 5 yds to the NCSU 23Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 5
OWN 23
-5
69.6%
(12:10) MORRIS, MJ pass to the left complete for 4 yards to CONCEPCION, Kevin 'KC' caught at the NSU19 and advanced to the NSU27 (DILLON, Cam;MORRIS JR., Nick). PENALTY Before the snap, NSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the NSU23 to the NSU18. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
70.1%
MJ Morris pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9TD
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 11:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
77.6%
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jeremiah Hasley for 8 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:2725% → 24%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.9%
Kendrick Raphael run for 5 yds to the NCSU 30Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
74.6%
MJ Morris run for 9 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
74.7%
MJ Morris pass complete to Ii Demarcus Jones for 17 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
74.3%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-2
74.9%
Kevin Concepcion run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 46Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 12
OPP 46
0
75.7%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:48
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
76.6%
Caden Noonkester punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 10Similar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
77.4%
(08:41) MOORE, Jaquez rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the DU15 (WILSON, Payton). PENALTY DU Holding on ELLIOTT, Scott enforced half the distance from the goal, 5 yards from the DU10 to the DU5 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 15
OWN 5
0
76.4%
Duke Penalty, Delay Of Game (Henry Belin IV) to the DUKE 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:5677% → 77%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 17
OWN 3
0
76.7%
Henry Belin IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 17
OWN 3
+26
76.6%
Henry Belin IV run for 26 yds to the DUKE 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
77.4%
Henry Belin IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
77.2%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the DUKE 32Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+10
77.1%
(06:29) BELIN IV, Henry pass to the left incomplete intended for MOORE, Jordan thrown to the DU30; QB hurried by SCOTT, Jaylon. PENALTY NSU Holding on BATTLE, Shyheim enforced 10 yards from the DU32 to the DU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
78.7%
Jordan Waters run for 11 yds to the NCSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
79.1%
Jordan Waters run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 49Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 12
OPP 49
0
79.0%
Henry Belin IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 12
OPP 49
0
78.3%
Henry Belin IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
77.4%
Porter Wilson punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2221% → 20%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
78.9%
Iii Delbert Mimms run for 2 yds to the NCSU 10Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
78.8%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 8
OWN 10
-3
79.1%
MJ Morris sacked by Aeneas Peebles for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSU 7Similar
Q2 3:23
4TH & 11
OWN 7
0
80.1%
Caden Noonkester punt for 55 yds , returns for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:4380% → 82%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
79.5%
Jaquez Moore run for 11 yds to the DUKE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
81.0%
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 36Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+1
80.8%
Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the DUKE 37Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+2
82.3%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the DUKE 39Similar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
81.6%
Porter Wilson punt for 56 yds, downed at the NCSU 5Similar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-5
82.2%
(01:25) ALLEN, Michael rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the NSU10 (MAUSI, Dorian;MOORE, Terry). PENALTY NSU Tripping on COOPER, Lyndon enforced half the distance from the goal, 2 yards from the NSU5 to the NSU3 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:5518% → 17%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 12
OWN 3
+2
82.2%
Iii Delbert Mimms run for 2 yds to the NCSU 5Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+5
83.9%
Iii Delbert Mimms run for 5 yds to the NCSU 10Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+16
82.8%
MJ Morris run for 16 yds to the NCSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 5:5617% → 14%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.9%
Michael Allen run for no gain to the NCSU 25Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.3%
MJ Morris pass complete to Julian Gray for 5 yds to the NCSU 30Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
83.1%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 10 yds to the NCSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
82.9%
Kevin Concepcion run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 39Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+3
83.8%
MJ Morris pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 3 yds to the NCSU 42Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+15
83.9%
MJ Morris pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 15 yds to the DUKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
82.9%
MJ Morris sacked by Dorian Mausi and Terry Moore for a loss of 10 yards to the NCSU 47Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 20
OWN 47
+3
84.9%
MJ Morris pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 17
50
0
85.3%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 17
50
0
85.8%
Caden Noonkester punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16TD
1 play · 83 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+83
95.1%
Jordan Waters run for 83 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:455% → 5%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
94.6%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
94.9%
MJ Morris pass complete to Michael Allen for 1 yd to the NCSU 32Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
95.1%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
95.2%
Caden Noonkester punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3995% → 95%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
95.2%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the DUKE 28Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+2
95.6%
Henry Belin IV run for 2 yds to the DUKE 30Similar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
95.8%
Henry Belin IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:05
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
95.4%
Porter Wilson punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:524% → 3%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
95.6%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 6 yds to the NCSU 30Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+16
95.5%
MJ Morris pass complete to Jr. Terrell Timmons for 16 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
96.2%
(04:45) MORRIS, MJ pass deep to the left incomplete intended for TIMMONS, JR., Terrell thrown to the DU10. PENALTY NSU Holding on BELTON, Anthony enforced 10 yards from the NSU46 to the NSU36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+21
96.4%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 21 yds to the DUKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
96.3%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
96.4%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-1
96.4%
MJ Morris run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 44Similar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 11
OPP 44
-8
96.7%
MJ Morris sacked by Brandon Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 2:1697% → 98%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
97.1%
Henry Belin IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 49Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+1
97.2%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 12
50
-3
97.7%
Henry Belin IV sacked by Payton Wilson and Travali Price for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 47Similar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
97.6%
Porter Wilson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21DOWNS
12 plays · 47 yds · 6:292% → 1%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
97.7%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 15 yds to the NCSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
98.0%
Michael Allen run for 11 yds to the NCSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
98.0%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 6 yds to the NCSU 39Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+3
98.1%
MJ Morris pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 3 yds Keyon Lesane fumbled, recovered by NCSU Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
98.2%
Iii Delbert Mimms run for no gain to the NCSU 42Similar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+5
98.3%
Iii Delbert Mimms run for 5 yds to the NCSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
98.4%
(11:38) QB Keeper MORRIS, MJ rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the DU49, out of bounds. PENALTY NSU Holding on MCMAHON, Dylan enforced 10 yards from the NSU47 to the NSU37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+2
98.5%
MJ Morris pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 2 yds to the NCSU 39Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 18
OWN 39
+13
98.6%
MJ Morris run for 13 yds to the DUKE 48Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+2
98.5%
Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the DUKE 46Similar
Q4 9:08
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
98.6%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 4:3499% → 99%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
99.2%
Jaquez Moore run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 6
50
+5
99.2%
Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the NCSU 45Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+4
99.3%
Jaquez Moore run for 4 yds to the NCSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
99.4%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the NCSU 40Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+1
99.4%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the NCSU 39Similar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+3
99.5%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the NCSU 36Similar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 5
OPP 36
0
99.4%
Porter Wilson punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23DOWNS
14 plays · 50 yds · 3:561% → 1%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.3%
MJ Morris run for 6 yds to the NCSU 26Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+6
99.2%
MJ Morris pass complete to Jr. Terrell Timmons for 6 yds to the NCSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
99.3%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 7 yds to the NCSU 39Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+7
99.3%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 7 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.3%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.4%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 5 yds to the DUKE 49Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+7
99.4%
MJ Morris pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 7 yds to the DUKE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
99.3%
MJ Morris pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 16 yds to the DUKE 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.2%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+6
99.3%
MJ Morris run for 6 yds to the DUKE 20Similar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 4
OPP 20
-10
99.3%
MJ Morris sacked by R.J. Oben for a loss of 10 yards to the DUKE 30Similar
Q4 0:23
4TH & 14
OPP 30
0
99.5%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.8%
(00:16) Kneel down by DU at DU28 (team loss of 2).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:47
Jordan Waters run for 83 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
+9.3
TD · Q2 11:36
Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jeremiah Hasley for 8 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
+7.4
KEY PLAY · Q2 11:36
Kendrick Raphael run for 5 yds to the NCSU 30
-2.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com