Try the model
MRSH

Marshall 41 at NC State 48

NCSU
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · Carter-Finley Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:05 · Caden Noonkester punt for 38 yds , Mason Pierce returns for 1 yd to the MRSH 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Pregame prior+16.2Home team on offense−3.4Garbage-time factor−1.2Score differential−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:31: Cam Fancher run for 4 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +14.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:03: Michael Allen run for 37 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — NCSU win probability +15.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:31: Cam Fancher pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 28 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +17.8 pts (now 53%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:43: MJ Morris pass complete to Trent Pennix for 62 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — NCSU win probability +20.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 7:03: Brayden Narveson 27 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +12.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10MRSH made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 13:15MRSH 4th & 4 at MRSH 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:01MRSH 4th & 16 at MRSH 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:55NCSU 4th & 15 at NCSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:10MRSH 4th & 7 at NCSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    34.0%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    33.7%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:05NCSU 4th & 15 at NCSU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:15MRSH 4th & 9 at MRSH 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:52MRSH 4th & 22 at MRSH 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−2.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:30NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:30NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:34MRSH 4th & 12 at NCSU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    21.7%−4.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:49NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:02NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:26MRSH 4th & 6 at NCSU 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    45.1%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:24MRSH 4th & 9 at NCSU 9, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−10.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:44NCSU 4th & 12 at MRSH 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−3.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−12.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:21MRSH 4th & 2 at NCSU 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.8%−2.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:41NCSU 4th & 18 at NCSU 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−5.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:19MRSH 4th & 4 at MRSH 20, down 4
    Close callPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%−0.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:03NCSU 4th & 9 at MRSH 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−15.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:29MRSH 4th & 9 at NCSU 16, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    3.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−1.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:51NCSU 4th & 14 at MRSH 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:28MRSH 4th & 2 at MRSH 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.1%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MRSH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:14MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:20NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:57MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:43NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:45NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:31MRSH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:03NCSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:31MRSH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 6:43NCSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:04NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:29MRSH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:4529% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
71.5%
Rasheen Ali run for 11 yds to the MRSH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
71.5%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Darryle Simmons for 4 yds to the MRSH 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
71.5%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Darryle Simmons for 2 yds to the MRSH 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
71.5%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Caleb CoombsSimilar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
71.2%
John McConnell punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2INT
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:3471% → 71%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
71.2%
Kevin Concepcion run for 6 yds to the NCSU 29Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
71.1%
MJ Morris pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3TD
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:2729% → 31%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
70.8%
Chuck Montgomery pass incomplete to Rasheen AliSimilar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+20
70.8%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Chris Mottillo for 20 yds to the NCSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
70.8%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the NCSU 7Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
69.2%
Cam Fancher run for 7 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:4770% → 71%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
70.0%
Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the MRSH 41Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+14
70.0%
Michael Allen run for 14 yds to the MRSH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
70.1%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Julian GraySimilar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+12
70.1%
Michael Allen run for 12 yds to the MRSH 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
70.1%
Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the MRSH 17Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 12
OPP 17
0
70.1%
Michael Allen run for no gain to the MRSH 17Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 12
OPP 17
+17
70.7%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 17 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:1930% → 30%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
70.2%
Cam Fancher run for 3 yds to the MRSH 23Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
70.2%
Cam Fancher run for 3 yds to the MRSH 26Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+18
70.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Darryle Simmons for 18 yds to the MRSH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
69.7%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Caleb McMillan for 2 yds to the MRSH 46Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
69.7%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Caleb CoombsSimilar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 8
OWN 46
-8
70.0%
Cam Fancher sacked by Red Hibbler for a loss of 8 yards to the MRSH 38Similar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 16
OWN 38
0
70.1%
John McConnell punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 2:0670% → 69%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
69.8%
Julian Gray run for 3 yds to the NCSU 27Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
69.8%
Delbert Mimms III run for no gain to the NCSU 27Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 12
OWN 22
+3
69.3%
MJ Morris run for 3 yds to the NCSU 19Similar
Q1 3:55
4TH & 15
OWN 19
0
68.6%
Caden Noonkester punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4532% → 31%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
67.9%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Jayden HarrisonSimilar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
67.9%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Jayden HarrisonSimilar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+3
68.5%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the NCSU 32Similar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 7
OPP 32
0
68.7%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to DeMarcus HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1369% → 65%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
69.4%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-27
65.2%
Josh Moten 27 Yd Interception Return (Rece Verhoff Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 2:5265% → 62%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
65.1%
Delbert Mimms III run for 6 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
65.6%
Delbert Mimms III run for 3 yds to the NCSU 34Similar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
65.4%
Delbert Mimms III run for 5 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
63.8%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
63.7%
Michael Allen run for no gain to the NCSU 39Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 15
OWN 34
0
62.5%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Bradley RoznerSimilar
Q1 0:05
4TH & 15
OWN 34
+1
61.5%
Caden Noonkester punt for 38 yds , Mason Pierce returns for 1 yd to the MRSH 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4538% → 37%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
61.7%
Ethan Payne run for 3 yds to the MRSH 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 26
0
62.4%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Rasheen AliSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 26
+4
62.8%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Rasheen Ali for 4 yds to the MRSH 30Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 9
OWN 30
+15
62.6%
John McConnell punt for 40 yds , Jalen Coit returns for 15 yds to the NCSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 2:3263% → 70%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
63.1%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 14 yds to the MRSH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 17
OPP 48
+6
63.0%
MJ Morris pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 6 yds to the MRSH 42Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+15
63.4%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 15 yds to the MRSH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
64.4%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 9 yds to the MRSH 18Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+18
70.2%
Delbert Mimms III run for 18 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4535% → 35%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
65.5%
Rasheen Ali run for 4 yds to the MRSH 46Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-3
65.2%
Cam Fancher sacked by Brandon Cleveland for a loss of 3 yards to the MRSH 43 Cam Fancher fumbled, recovered by MRSH Logan Osburn , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+6
65.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 6 yds Caleb Coombs fumbled, recovered by MRSH Payton WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13TD
1 play · 39 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
75.3%
MJ Morris pass complete to Trent Pennix for 39 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 1:5327% → 25%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 20
OWN 33
-10
73.4%
Cam Fancher sacked by Davin Vann for a loss of 10 yards to the MRSH 23Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 30
OWN 23
+8
73.7%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 8 yds to the MRSH 31Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 22
OWN 31
0
74.2%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:52
4TH & 22
OWN 31
+17
75.1%
John McConnell punt for 51 yds , Jalen Coit returns for 17 yds to the NCSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2275% → 74%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
74.7%
Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the NCSU 36Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
74.9%
MJ Morris pass complete to Terrell Timmons Jr. for 4 yds to the NCSU 40Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
75.1%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
74.1%
Caden Noonkester punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the MRSH 25Similar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
74.1%
Caden Noonkester punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the MRSH 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:5627% → 31%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
72.9%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Caleb McMillanSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
73.3%
Rasheen Ali run for 8 yds to the MRSH 48Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+9
72.4%
Cam Fancher run for 9 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
71.9%
Rasheen Ali run for 5 yds to the NCSU 38Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+14
71.6%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Mason Pierce for 14 yds to the NCSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
70.6%
Cam Fancher run for 3 yds to the NCSU 21Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+1
70.6%
Rasheen Ali run for 1 yd to the NCSU 20Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 6
OPP 20
-6
71.7%
Cam Fancher sacked by Payton Wilson for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSU 26Similar
Q2 2:34
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+43
68.7%
Rece Verhoff 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:4570% → 70%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.3%
Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd to the NCSU 26Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
70.1%
Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd to the NCSU 27Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+2
69.9%
MJ Morris run for 2 yds to the NCSU 29Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
70.2%
Caden Noonkester punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the MRSH 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:1827% → 47%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
72.9%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Rasheen Ali for 5 yds to the MRSH 39Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+15
71.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Caleb McMillan for 15 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
69.9%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 5 yds to the NCSU 41Similar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+27
68.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 27 yds to the NCSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
53.3%
Cam Fancher run for 4 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:2459% → 58%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.7%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
58.5%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
57.4%
Delbert Mimms III run for 5 yds to the NCSU 30Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
58.0%
Caden Noonkester punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the MRSH 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
58.3%
C. Fancher takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:3860% → 59%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
59.9%
MJ Morris pass complete to Trent Pennix for 2 yds to the NCSU 24Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 12
OWN 24
0
58.6%
MJ Morris pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:5245% → 45%
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
54.8%
Cam Fancher run for 8 yds to the NCSU 37Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+2
54.4%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
54.0%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Caleb McMillanSimilar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
54.0%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Darryle SimmonsSimilar
Q3 14:18
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+4
55.5%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Darryle Simmons for 4 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 6
OPP 31
-11
54.9%
Cam Fancher sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the NCSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 3:2359% → 75%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
59.2%
Delbert Mimms III run for 5 yds to the NCSU 47Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+6
59.7%
MJ Morris run for 6 yds to the MRSH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
60.2%
Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd to the MRSH 46Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+6
60.1%
MJ Morris pass complete to Julian Gray for 6 yds to the MRSH 40Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+3
59.6%
MJ Morris run for 3 yds to the MRSH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
75.4%
Michael Allen run for 37 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 24TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3230% → 53%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
70.5%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Darryle Simmons for 31 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
66.5%
Rasheen Ali run for 5 yds to the NCSU 39Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+11
66.0%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 11 yds to the NCSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
64.8%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+28
46.9%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 28 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25TD
3 plays · 68 yds · 0:4354% → 75%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
54.2%
Michael Allen run for 6 yds to the NCSU 38Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+62
74.7%
MJ Morris pass complete to Trent Pennix for 62 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 26FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 5:1930% → 37%
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
70.3%
Ethan Payne run for 20 yds to the MRSH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
67.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Darryle Simmons for 18 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
66.0%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Darryle Simmons for 1 yd to the NCSU 36Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+10
66.2%
Rasheen Ali run for 10 yds to the NCSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
64.2%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Chris Mottillo for 9 yds to the NCSU 17Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+8
64.2%
Cam Fancher run for 8 yds to the NCSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
64.2%
Rasheen Ali run for 1 yd to the NCSU 10Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
64.2%
Ethan Payne run for no gain to the NCSU 10Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
66.4%
Cam Fancher run for 1 yd to the NCSU 9Similar
Q3 1:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
63.1%
Rece Verhoff 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 27FG
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:3366% → 73%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+47
66.4%
MJ Morris pass complete to Terrell Timmons Jr. for 47 yds to the MRSH 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
71.3%
MJ Morris pass complete to Julian Gray for 2 yds to the MRSH 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 23
0
71.1%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Terrell Timmons Jr.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 23
0
68.8%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+40
72.6%
Brayden Narveson 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 28FUMBLE
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2334% → 33%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
66.3%
Rasheen Ali run for 5 yds to the MRSH 49Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
65.2%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Caleb McMillanSimilar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+3
65.5%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the NCSU 48Similar
Q4 13:21
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
66.8%
Cam Fancher run for no gain to the NCSU 48 Cam Fancher fumbled, recovered by MRSH Robert KennedySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 29PUNT
3 plays · -8 yds · 1:4077% → 71%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
76.5%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 3 yds to the MRSH 49Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-11
76.6%
MJ Morris sacked by Elijah Alston for a loss of 11 yards to the NCSU 40Similar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 18
OWN 40
+9
70.8%
Caden Noonkester punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MRSH 14 , Talik Keaton returns for 9 yds to the MRSH 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2230% → 27%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
70.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 9 yds to the MRSH 23Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 1
OWN 23
-3
68.6%
Cam Fancher sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the MRSH 20Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 4
OWN 20
0
71.7%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Ethan PayneSimilar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 4
OWN 20
+10
72.9%
John McConnell punt for 44 yds , Jalen Coit returns for 10 yds to the NCSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 31FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:1677% → 89%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+38
76.8%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 38 yds to the MRSH 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
77.8%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Dacari CollinsSimilar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+11
77.8%
Delbert Mimms III run for 11 yds to the MRSH 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
77.8%
Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd to the MRSH 4Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
77.8%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by KeSean Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the MRSH 9Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
76.5%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Juice VereenSimilar
Q4 7:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
88.5%
Brayden Narveson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 32INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.2%
Cam Fancher pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 33TD
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:4790% → 97%
Q4 6:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
90.4%
MJ Morris run for 1 yd to the MRSH 8Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
96.8%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 8 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 34TD
18 plays · 76 yds · 4:306% → 16%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
93.9%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Darryle SimmonsSimilar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
93.9%
Cam Fancher run for 4 yds to the MRSH 28Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+9
93.6%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Darryle Simmons for 9 yds to the MRSH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
93.2%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Ethan PayneSimilar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
93.2%
Cam Fancher run for 5 yds to the MRSH 42Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+5
93.1%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Ethan Payne for 5 yds to the MRSH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
92.9%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Chris Mottillo for 11 yds to the NCSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
92.8%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Chuck MontgomerySimilar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+16
93.2%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 16 yds to the NCSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
92.0%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Talik KeatonSimilar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
92.2%
Cam Fancher run for 7 yds to the NCSU 24Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+7
94.1%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Mason Pierce for 7 yds to the NCSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
94.0%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Mason Pierce for 6 yds to the NCSU 11Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 4
OPP 11
0
94.0%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Darryle SimmonsSimilar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 4
OPP 11
0
94.2%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Caleb CoombsSimilar
Q4 1:29
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+16
84.5%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 16 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 35PUNT
8 plays · -4 yds · 0:3796% → 96%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
95.6%
Delbert Mimms III run for no gain to the MRSH 44Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 17
OWN 49
+5
95.5%
Delbert Mimms III run for 5 yds to the MRSH 46Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+2
96.2%
MJ Morris pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 2 yds to the MRSH 48Similar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 14
OPP 48
0
96.1%
Caden Noonkester punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 36DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:237% → 6%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
93.5%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Ethan Payne for 4 yds to the MRSH 7Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 6
OWN 7
0
93.6%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Caleb CoombsSimilar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+4
93.9%
Cam Fancher run for 4 yds to the MRSH 11Similar
Q4 0:28
4TH & 2
OWN 11
0
94.1%
Cam Fancher pass incomplete to Caleb CoombsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 37END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
97.3%
M. Morris takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:43
MJ Morris pass complete to Trent Pennix for 62 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
+20.5
TD · Q3 7:31
Cam Fancher pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 28 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)
-17.8
TD · Q3 9:03
Michael Allen run for 37 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
+15.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com