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LOU

Louisville 13 at NC State 10

NCSU
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2023 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:45 · Caden Noonkester punt for 51 yds , Kevin Coleman returns for 4 yds to the LOU 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Home team on offense+0.5Pregame prior−1.5Garbage-time factor−1.4Score differential−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:27: Delbert Mimms III 4 Yd Run (Brayden Narveson Kick) — NCSU win probability +11.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:38: Chris Bell 39 Yd pass from Jack Plummer (Brock Travelstead Kick) — LOU win probability +15.1 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:58: Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the NCSU 21 — NCSU win probability +11.2 pts (now 54%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 5:32: Brock Travelstead 53 Yd Field Goal — LOU win probability +18.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:29: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 27 — LOU win probability +16.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:48LOU 4th & 3 at NCSU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    56.2%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:52NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 24, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:06LOU 4th & 12 at LOU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:23NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:49LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:45NCSU 4th & 19 at LOU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.8
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:21LOU 4th & 11 at NCSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.6%
    45% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:07NCSU 4th & 1 at LOU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    47.2%−1.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    47.7%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:51NCSU 4th & 1 at LOU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.2%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    47.9%−2.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    42.4%−7.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:38NCSU 4th & 7 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00NCSU 4th & 9 at LOU 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    61.0%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:48LOU 4th & 15 at LOU 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−2.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:34NCSU 4th & 20 at NCSU 15, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−4.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:32LOU 4th & 12 at NCSU 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−3.0
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−11.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:43NCSU 4th & 13 at NCSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−5.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:45NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−3.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:32LOU 4th & 16 at NCSU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−4.6
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.2%
    42% to make
    Punt
    44.7%−2.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:50NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 42, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%−1.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:44LOU 4th & 16 at LOU 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−9.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1LOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 6:27NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:38LOU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 4:0059% → 58%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
41.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 8 yds to the LOU 33Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-1
41.5%
Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 32Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
41.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Josh Lifson for 10 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
41.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the LOU 46Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+6
41.9%
Jawhar Jordan run for 6 yds to the NCSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
42.0%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jawhar JordanSimilar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
42.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 7 yds to the NCSU 41Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
42.2%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Isaac GuerendoSimilar
Q1 10:48
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
42.4%
Brock Travelstead punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4943% → 43%
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
42.7%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the NCSU 19Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+5
42.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Michael Allen for 5 yds to the NCSU 24Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 1
OWN 24
0
42.9%
Delbert Mimms III run for no gain to the NCSU 24Similar
Q1 8:52
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
42.7%
Caden Noonkester punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3857% → 56%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
43.0%
Jack Plummer run for 8 yds to the LOU 38Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
42.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the LOU 38Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
42.9%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jimmy CallowaySimilar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 2
OWN 38
-10
43.5%
Travelstead, Brock pass complete to Guerendo, Isaac for 8 yards to the LOUISVILLE46, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Watts, Antonio) 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
44.1%
Brock Travelstead punt for 26 yds, downed at the NCSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3844% → 44%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
44.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-1
44.2%
Michael Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 45Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+9
44.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 9 yds to the LOU 46Similar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 2
OPP 46
-5
44.4%
NC State Penalty, False Start (Derrick Eason) to the NCSU 49Similar
Q1 5:23
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
44.0%
Caden Noonkester punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2556% → 55%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
44.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jadon Thompson for no gain to the LOU 11Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+8
44.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 8 yds to the LOU 19Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 2
OWN 19
0
44.8%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Duane Martin, broken up by Payton WilsonSimilar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 2
OWN 19
0
45.2%
Brock Travelstead punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Julian Gray at the NCSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:0045% → 45%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
45.1%
Michael Allen run for 8 yds to the NCSU 46Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
46.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the NCSU 46Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+16
46.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the LOU 47 for a 1ST down Louisville Penalty, Personal Foul (Ashton Gillotte) to the LOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
46.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Bradley RoznerSimilar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-3
46.7%
Michael Allen run for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 41Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 13
OPP 41
-6
45.9%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Ramon Puryear for a loss of 6 yards to the LOU 47Similar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 19
OPP 47
+34
45.0%
Caden Noonkester punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LOU 23 Louisville Penalty, Offensive Holding (D'Angelo Hutchinson) to the LOU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7MISSED FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:1955% → 54%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
44.9%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the LOU 15Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+15
45.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 15 yds to the LOU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+26
44.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 26 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
43.5%
Plummer, Jack pass incomplete to Thrash, Jamari, PENALTY NCSU holding (Fitzgerald, Bishop) 10 yards to the NCSU34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
43.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 35Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
43.2%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 11
OPP 35
0
44.2%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jamari ThrashSimilar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 11
OPP 35
+52
45.6%
Brock Travelstead 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8TD
15 plays · 65 yds · 6:4747% → 61%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
46.8%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the NCSU 36Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+10
47.1%
Armstrong, Brennan pass incomplete to Gray, Julian, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Perry, Benjamin) 10 yards to the NCSU46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSU.Similar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
48.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Julian GraySimilar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
47.7%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the LOU 48Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 4
OPP 48
-10
48.5%
Armstrong, Brennan pass complete to Lesane, Keyon for 2 yards to the LOUISVILLE46, PENALTY NCSU holding (Cooper, Lyndon) 10 yards to the NCSU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 14
OWN 42
+13
46.5%
Michael Allen run for 13 yds to the LOU 45Similar
Q2 11:07
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+3
47.9%
Payton Wilson run for 3 yds to the LOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
49.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Timmons Jr. for 6 yds to the LOU 36Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+2
50.1%
Delbert Mimms III run for 2 yds to the LOU 34Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+20
49.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Timmons Jr. for 20 yds to the LOU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
51.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the LOU 12Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+5
51.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the LOU 7Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+2
50.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the LOU 5Similar
Q2 6:51
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+1
49.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Trent Pennix for 1 yd to the LOU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
60.6%
Delbert Mimms III 4 Yd Run (Brayden Narveson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9FUMBLE
7 plays · 28 yds · 3:0343% → 45%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Maurice Turner for no gain to the LOU 25Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
58.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 10 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
57.6%
Maurice Turner run for 12 yds to the LOU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
56.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 16 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
56.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 5 yds to the NCSU 32Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 5
OPP 32
-15
55.0%
Jack Plummer sacked by Sean Brown for a loss of 15 yards to the NCSU 47 Jack Plummer fumbled, forced by Sean Brown, recovered by NCSU Payton Wilson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3263% → 61%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
62.8%
Demarcus Jones II run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSU 42Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+8
61.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 7
50
0
62.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Bradley Rozner, broken up by Quincy RileySimilar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 7
50
+43
60.5%
Caden Noonkester punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 13 Louisville Penalty, Personal Foul (Chris Bell) to the LOU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11INT
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:4239% → 39%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
60.9%
Jawhar Jordan run for 8 yds to the LOU 15Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+6
60.9%
Jack Plummer run for 6 yds to the LOU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-6
60.9%
Jack Plummer pass intercepted Shyheim Battle return for 6 yds to the LOU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:4265% → 65%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
65.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Delbert Mimms III for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 34Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 12
OPP 34
0
64.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+3
62.5%
Michael Allen run for 3 yds to the LOU 31Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+48
65.0%
Brayden Narveson 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13INT
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:3967% → 72%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
67.2%
Armstrong, Brennan rush for 1 yard to the NCSU26, PENALTY NCSU holding (Carter Jr., Anthony) 10 yards to the NCSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:36
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+2
67.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 2 yds to the NCSU 17Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+6
67.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NCSU 23Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+17
67.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Porter Rooks for 17 yds to the NCSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+45
71.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Timmons Jr. for 45 yds to the LOU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
72.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted, touchback. Cam'Ron Kelly return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 2:1931% → 26%
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
69.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 15 yds to the LOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
69.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 3 yds to the LOU 38Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
68.9%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the LOU 40Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-10
69.7%
Jack Plummer sacked by Sean Brown for a loss of 10 yards to the LOU 30Similar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
73.7%
Brock Travelstead punt for 45 yds, downed at the NCSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 2:0672% → 71%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.2%
Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the NCSU 26Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
72.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keyon Lesane for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 24Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-9
71.7%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSU 15Similar
Q3 7:34
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+12
71.4%
Caden Noonkester punt for 43 yds , Kevin Coleman returns for 12 yds to the NCSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 46 yds · 0:4929% → 45%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
70.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 16 yds to the NCSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-9
69.8%
Jack Plummer sacked by Payton Wilson for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSU 39 Louisville Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jack Plummer) to the NCSU 39Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 19
OPP 39
+39
54.7%
Chris Bell 39 Yd pass from Jack Plummer (Brock Travelstead Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:4759% → 61%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
59.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the NCSU 38Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-10
62.1%
Mimms III, Delbert rush for 4 yards to the NCSU42, PENALTY NCSU holding (Belton, Anthony) 10 yards to the NCSU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+15
59.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 15 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
62.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Bradley RoznerSimilar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+13
61.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 13 yds to the LOU 44 Brennan Armstrong fumbled, forced by Cam'Ron Kelly, recovered by LOU Ramon PuryearSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18FG
7 plays · 40 yds · 3:0045% → 50%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+26
54.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 26 yds to the NCSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
53.4%
Jack Plummer run for 1 yd to the NCSU 29Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+15
54.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Josh Lifson for 2 yds to the NCSU 27 for a 1ST down NC State Penalty, Personal Foul (Sean Brown) to the NCSU 14 for a 1ST down. Sean Brown ejected for targeting.Similar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
53.9%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jawhar JordanSimilar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-2
54.0%
Jack Plummer run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 16Similar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 12
OPP 16
0
56.7%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jadon Thompson, broken up by Aydan WhiteSimilar
Q3 1:32
4TH & 12
OPP 16
+33
49.7%
Brock Travelstead 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:4353% → 50%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.4%
Michael Allen run for no gain to the NCSU 25Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
53.2%
NC State Penalty, False Start (Lyndon Cooper) to the NCSU 20Similar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-4
52.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Michael Allen for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSU 16Similar
Q3 0:13
3RD & 19
OWN 16
-5
51.2%
NC State Penalty, False Start (Anthony Belton) to the NCSU 11Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 24
OWN 11
+11
51.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 11 yds to the NCSU 22 NC State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Derrick Eason) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:43
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+26
50.4%
Caden Noonkester punt for 49 yds , Kevin Coleman returns for 26 yds to the NCSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20INT
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:3555% → 57%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-6
45.1%
Jack Plummer sacked by Payton Wilson for a loss of 6 yards to the LOU 49Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 16
OWN 49
0
48.0%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Maurice TurnerSimilar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 16
OWN 49
+31
49.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 31 yds to the NCSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
43.0%
Plummer, Jack pass incomplete to Thrash, Jamari, PENALTY NCSU pass interference (White, Aydan) 15 yards to the NCSU5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q4 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
43.0%
Jack Plummer pass intercepted, touchback. Bishop Fitzgerald return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:1354% → 51%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
54.2%
Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the NCSU 21Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
54.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 7 yds to the NCSU 28Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+2
53.5%
Delbert Mimms III run for 2 yds to the NCSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
55.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Terrell Timmons Jr.Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
54.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
52.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+4
51.3%
Caden Noonkester punt for 51 yds , Kevin Coleman returns for 4 yds to the LOU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 5:0650% → 70%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
50.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 8 yds to the LOU 31Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+1
47.6%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the LOU 32Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+4
49.5%
Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the LOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
49.1%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jadon ThompsonSimilar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-10
50.0%
Plummer, Jack rush for 3 yards to the LOUISVILLE39, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Brown, Renato) 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+6
51.7%
Jack Plummer run for 6 yds to the LOU 32Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+38
53.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 38 yds to the NCSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
42.7%
Jawhar Jordan run for 1 yd to the NCSU 29Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+3
42.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 3 yds to the NCSU 26Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 6
OPP 26
-10
44.0%
Plummer, Jack pass incomplete, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Brown, Renato) 10 yards to the NCSU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 16
OPP 36
0
48.7%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 16
OPP 36
+53
30.1%
Brock Travelstead 53 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3140% → 35%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
40.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
38.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Delbert Mimms III for 2 yds to the NCSU 42Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
37.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the NCSU 42Similar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
34.9%
Caden Noonkester punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24PUNT
12 plays · 6 yds · 1:5874% → 85%
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
25.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 5 yds to the LOU 27Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+2
22.8%
Jawhar Jordan run for 2 yds to the LOU 29Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
22.0%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jamari Thrash, broken up by Aydan WhiteSimilar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 3
OWN 29
+5
23.7%
Travelstead, Brock punt 47 yards to the NCSU24, downed, PENALTY NCSU running into kicker (Baldwin, Jakolbe) 5 yards to the LOUISVILLE34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
20.8%
Louisville Penalty, False Start (Michael Gonzalez) to the LOU 29Similar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 15
OWN 29
-1
20.5%
Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the LOU 28Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 16
OWN 28
0
20.4%
Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the LOU 28Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 16
OWN 28
0
21.1%
Jawhar Jordan run for no gain to the LOU 28Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 16
OWN 28
0
15.3%
Brock Travelstead punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-14
25.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted Quincy Riley return for 14 yds to the NCSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:1191% → 94%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
8.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 27Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 11
OPP 27
-1
5.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 28Similar
Q4 0:18
3RD & 12
OPP 28
-1
5.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 5:32
Brock Travelstead 53 Yd Field Goal
-18.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:29
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 27
-16.5
TD · Q3 6:38
Chris Bell 39 Yd pass from Jack Plummer (Brock Travelstead Kick)
-15.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com