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NCSU

NC State 24 at Virginia 21

UVA
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2023 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:22 · Caden Noonkester punt for 49 yds , Ethan Davies returns for 6 yds to the UVA 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 109Pregame prior−8.5Home team on offense−5.7Garbage-time factor−0.8Score differential−3.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:28: Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — NCSU win probability +10.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 2:24: Will Bettridge 36 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +9.6 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 0:11: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 48 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — NCSU win probability +20.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:36: Malik Washington 3 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Anthony Colandrea Pass to Malachi Fields for Two-Point Conversion) — UVA win probability +55.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Brayden Narveson 33 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +36.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 10NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 11:39NCSU 4th & 3 at UVA 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:29UVA 4th & 20 at NCSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    34.5%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:21NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:38UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.5%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:57NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:01UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 13, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:04UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:46UVA 4th & 14 at UVA 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−3.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:47NCSU 4th & 21 at NCSU 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−4.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:48UVA 4th & 3 at NCSU 3, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.7%−2.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−12.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:22NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−3.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:24UVA 4th & 1 at NCSU 19, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.3%−3.6
    77% to make
    Punt
    23.5%−14.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:52UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 29, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:52UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 29, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:18NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−1.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:34NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 35, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−2.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:29NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 11, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−3.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:29NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 11, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−3.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:07UVA 4th & 1 at NCSU 16, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    10.0%−1.4
    81% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−7.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 14:55NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:46UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:28NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:11NCSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:36UVA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    19.3%−10.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:2173% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
26.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Trent Pennix for 7 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+2
26.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 2 yds to the NCSU 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
26.8%
Delbert Mimms III run for 2 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
26.8%
Brennan Armstrong run for 10 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
26.8%
Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the NCSU 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
26.8%
Michael Allen run for 3 yds to the UVA 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
26.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
28.2%
Caden Noonkester punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
15 plays · 51 yds · 5:1028% → 31%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
28.4%
Anthony Colandrea run for 4 yds to the UVA 12Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+5
28.4%
Kobe Pace run for 5 yds to the UVA 17Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+2
28.2%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
28.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+6
28.4%
Kobe Pace run for 6 yds to the UVA 25Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+5
28.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to JR Wilson for 5 yds to the UVA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
28.5%
Mike Hollins run for 8 yds to the UVA 38Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+3
28.7%
Mike Hollins run for 3 yds to the UVA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+28
28.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 28 yds to the NCSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
28.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-5
28.8%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Nnanna,Ugonna) 5 yards from NCST31 to NCST36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 15
OPP 36
0
28.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to JR WilsonSimilar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 15
OPP 36
-5
28.5%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Stevens,Brian) 5 yards from NCST36 to NCST41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 20
OPP 41
0
28.5%
Anthony Colandrea run for no gain to the NCSU 41Similar
Q1 6:29
4TH & 20
OPP 41
0
30.5%
Daniel Sparks punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:0869% → 68%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
30.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Armstrong,Brennan pass incomplete deep left to Lesane,Keyon PENALTY UVA Offside (Butler,Kameron) 5 yards from NCST09 to NCST14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 5
OWN 14
+9
30.7%
Brennan Armstrong run for 9 yds to the NCSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
30.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
30.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Terrell Timmons Jr.Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
31.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
31.9%
Caden Noonkester punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4DOWNS
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:4331% → 33%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
31.3%
Mike Hollins run for no gain to the UVA 24Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+16
31.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 16 yds to the UVA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
31.9%
Mike Hollins run for 6 yds to the UVA 46Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+2
32.2%
Mike Hollins run for 2 yds to the UVA 48Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
31.9%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the UVA 49Similar
Q1 2:38
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
33.2%
Mike Hollins run for no gain to the UVA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:4369% → 73%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
31.0%
Delbert Mimms III run for 2 yds to the UVA 47Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+4
31.0%
Delbert Mimms III run for 4 yds to the UVA 43Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+5
31.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 5 yds to the UVA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
31.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Porter Rooks for 16 yds to the UVA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
30.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Timmons Jr. for 10 yds to the UVA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
31.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Bradley RoznerSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
27.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 12 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0929% → 38%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
28.7%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 27Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
28.8%
Kobe Pace run for 9 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+42
29.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 42 yds to the NCSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
30.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
30.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
30.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
30.7%
Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the NCSU 8Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
37.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 8 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4965% → 64%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
34.8%
Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the NCSU 27Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 4
OWN 27
0
34.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dacari CollinsSimilar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
35.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dacari CollinsSimilar
Q2 10:57
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
36.4%
Caden Noonkester punt for 67 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5636% → 36%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
36.2%
Kobe Pace run for no gain to the UVA 6Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+7
36.1%
Kobe Pace run for 7 yds to the UVA 13Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 3
OWN 13
0
35.4%
Mike Hollins run for no gain to the UVA 13Similar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 3
OWN 13
0
35.9%
Daniel Sparks punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9INT
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:5164% → 66%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+8
35.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 8 yds to the NCSU 45Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+11
34.2%
Michael Allen run for 11 yds to the UVA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
33.9%
Brennan Armstrong run for 7 yds to the UVA 37Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+4
33.6%
Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the UVA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
33.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 9 yds to the UVA 24Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 1
OPP 24
0
33.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+2
33.8%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the UVA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 13
OPP 25
0
33.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0640% → 39%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
39.5%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the UVA 21Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+3
39.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Mike Hollins for 3 yds to the UVA 18Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 14
OWN 18
+11
38.2%
Anthony Colandrea run for 11 yds to the UVA 29Similar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
39.2%
Daniel Sparks punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 2:3663% → 76%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
36.8%
Kendrick Raphael run for 13 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
35.2%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Kam Butler for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSU 42Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 14
OWN 42
0
36.9%
Kendrick Raphael run for no gain to the NCSU 42Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 14
OWN 42
+30
38.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 30 yds to the UVA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
34.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Julian GraySimilar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+14
34.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 14 yds to the UVA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
34.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 13 yds to the UVA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.7%
Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
28.8%
A. Colandrea takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 4:1428% → 27%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 5 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
27.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 6 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
28.8%
Mike Hollins run for no gain to the UVA 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+12
28.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 12 yds to the UVA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
30.5%
Anthony Colandrea run for no gain to the UVA 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
30.2%
Perris Jones run for 5 yds to the NCSU 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 47
-9
30.7%
Anthony Colandrea sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the UVA 44Similar
Q3 10:46
4TH & 14
OWN 44
0
26.7%
Daniel Sparks punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:5973% → 71%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
26.9%
Michael Allen run for no gain to the NCSU 20Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
27.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keyon Lesane for no gain to the NCSU 20Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-11
28.0%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by James Jackson for a loss of 11 yards to the NCSU 9Similar
Q3 8:47
4TH & 21
OWN 9
0
29.3%
Caden Noonkester punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Ethan Davies at the UVA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15FG
5 plays · 60 yds · 1:5929% → 37%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+59
29.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 59 yds to the NCSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
33.3%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the NCSU 2Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
33.3%
Anthony Colandrea run for 1 yd to the NCSU 3Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
31.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Jaden GibsonSimilar
Q3 6:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
37.0%
Will Bettridge 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2666% → 63%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
33.9%
Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the NCSU 9Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 14
OWN 9
+5
34.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 5 yds to the NCSU 14Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 9
OWN 14
0
35.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 9
OWN 14
+6
37.0%
Caden Noonkester punt for 49 yds , Ethan Davies returns for 6 yds to the UVA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17FG
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:5839% → 46%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+29
38.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 29 yds to the NCSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
42.4%
Mike Hollins run for no gain to the NCSU 28Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
42.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 9 yds to the NCSU 19Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 1
OPP 19
0
39.9%
Kobe Pace run for no gain to the NCSU 19Similar
Q3 2:24
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+36
45.6%
Will Bettridge 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:1360% → 83%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
40.3%
Michael Allen run for 16 yds to the NCSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
37.3%
Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the NCSU 43Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+7
37.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 2
50
+2
36.9%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the UVA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
16.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 48 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 2:0821% → 17%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Mike Hollins for 5 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
21.5%
Anthony Colandrea run for 3 yds to the UVA 27Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
21.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
20.8%
Anthony Colandrea run for 4 yds to the UVA 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 33
-4
20.6%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Red Hibbler for a loss of 4 yards to the UVA 29Similar
Q4 12:52
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+17
17.0%
Daniel Sparks punt for 52 yds , Julian Gray returns for 17 yds to the NCSU 36Similar
Q4 12:52
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+17
17.0%
Daniel Sparks punt for 52 yds , Julian Gray returns for 17 yds to the NCSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:3483% → 82%
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
17.0%
Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the NCSU 16Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
17.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+12
18.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 12 yds to the NCSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
15.9%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the NCSU 28Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
17.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NCSU 34Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
16.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q4 10:18
4TH & 9
OWN 29
0
18.0%
Caden Noonkester punt for 43 yds , Micah Gaffney returns for no gain to the UVA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:4419% → 18%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
18.6%
Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the UVA 29Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
18.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:0085% → 86%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
15.2%
Delbert Mimms III run for 3 yds to the NCSU 29Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+7
14.8%
Delbert Mimms III run for 7 yds to the NCSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
14.2%
Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the NCSU 35Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
15.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
16.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Julian GraySimilar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
13.9%
Caden Noonkester punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ethan Davies at the UVA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23INT
3 plays · 54 yds · 1:5516% → 20%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
16.0%
Anthony Colandrea run for 16 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
20.8%
Anthony Colandrea run for 15 yds to the NCSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
19.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:1090% → 91%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
9.6%
Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd to the NCSU 9Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+2
10.0%
Delbert Mimms III run for 2 yds to the NCSU 11Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 9
OWN 11
0
10.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the NCSU 11Similar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 9
OWN 11
+10
8.9%
Caden Noonkester punt for 45 yds , Ethan Davies returns for 10 yds to the NCSU 46Similar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 9
OWN 11
+10
8.9%
Caden Noonkester punt for 45 yds , Ethan Davies returns for 10 yds to the UVA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25TD
14 plays · 66 yds · 2:5312% → 64%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
12.2%
Anthony Colandrea run for 11 yds to the UVA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
14.4%
Kobe Pace run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 5
50
+6
15.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 6 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
15.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 19 yds to the NCSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
14.2%
Anthony Colandrea run for 1 yd to the NCSU 26Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+10
12.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 10 yds to the NCSU 16Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
12.4%
Mike Hollins run for no gain to the NCSU 16Similar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+12
9.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 12 yds to the NCSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
11.4%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the NCSU 3Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
8.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q4 0:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
63.9%
Malik Washington 3 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Anthony Colandrea Pass to Malachi Fields for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:3659% → 95%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
41.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the UVA 40Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+8
39.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the UVA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
38.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
38.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+15
41.4%
(00:03) Narveson,Brayden field goal attempt from 48 yards NO GOOD blocked by Jackson,James (H: Noonkester,Caden, LS: Shimko,Joe), clock 00:00 PENALTY UVA Personal Foul (Jackson,James) 15 yards from UVA30 to UVA15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+33
4.8%
Brayden Narveson 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:36
Malik Washington 3 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Anthony Colandrea Pass to Malachi Fields for Two-Point Conversion)
+55.9
FG · Q4 0:00
Brayden Narveson 33 yd FG GOOD
-36.6
TD · Q3 0:11
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 48 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
-20.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com