2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadSCST aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreSCST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:05 · Max'Ceon Cobb punt for 37 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:30: Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 40 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK) — GT win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:34: Kacy Fields run for 1 yd for a TD (Gavyn Zimmerman PAT BLOCKED) Georgia Tech Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (D'Quan Douse) to the 50 yard line — SCST win probability +1.7 pts (now 3%) (top driver: SCST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:16: Haynes King pass complete to Brett Seither for 8 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK) — GT win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:42: Haynes King pass complete to Trey Cooley for 55 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:39: Andre Washington run for 1 yd for a TD (Gavyn Zimmerman KICK) — SCST win probability +1.0 pts (now 1%) (top driver: SCST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SCST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 10:50SCST 4th & 6 at SCST 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.2%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q1 3:00SCST 4th & 14 at SCST 48, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q2 10:46SCST 4th & 9 at SCST 38, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q2 6:16SCST 4th & 1 at SCST 34, down 21Close callPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%−0.1average punt
- Q2 2:38GT 4th & 13 at SCST 30, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.7%−0.120% to convertField goalTheir call98.8%56% to makePunt98.6%−0.2average punt
- Q3 9:22GT 4th & 8 at SCST 13, up 22Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.9%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call98.9%85% to makePunt98.3%−0.6average punt
- Q3 0:17GT 4th & 3 at SCST 34, up 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%53% to convertField goal99.6%−0.147% to makePunt99.5%−0.2average punt
- Q4 13:15SCST 4th & 10 at SCST 39, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:33GT 4th & 10 at SCST 25, up 32Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.128% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%66% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 6:05SCST 4th & 10 at SCST 38, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 3:42SCST 4th & 6 at GT 34, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%40% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.147% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SCST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 12:28GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:22GT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:30GT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:34SCST Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call2.5%97% to makeGo for two2.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:16GT Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:42GT Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:39SCST Touchdown, down 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.2%97% to makeGo for two1.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:05GT Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSCSTDrive 1INT3 plays · 4 yds · 0:541% → 1%
GTDrive 2TD4 plays · 15 yds · 1:3899% → 99%
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
99.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Christian Leary for a loss of 1 yard to the SCST 16Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 11
OPP 16
-1
99.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Chase Lane for a loss of 1 yard to the SCST 17Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 12
OPP 17
+13
99.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 13 yds to the SCST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:381% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4TD7 plays · 60 yds · 2:2899% → 99%
SCSTDrive 5PUNT11 plays · 23 yds · 5:221% → 2%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
98.8%
South Carolina State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SCST 34Similar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
98.7%
South Carolina State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SCST 45Similar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 14
OWN 48
0
98.5%
Max'Ceon Cobb punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Dominick Blaylock at the GT 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6FUMBLE10 plays · 78 yds · 18:0099% → 98%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
98.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 9 yds to the SCST 43Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+23
98.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Chase Lane for 23 yds to the SCST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.4%
Trey Cooley run for 1 yd Trey Cooley fumbled, recovered by SCST Jaylen EvansSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
97.7%
South Carolina State Penalty, Personal Foul (Aiden Weber) to the SCST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 18 yds · 2:462% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8TD5 plays · 62 yds · 2:1698% → 99%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
98.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Chase Lane for 14 yds to the SCST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
98.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 5 yds to the SCST 43Similar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
98.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for a loss of 3 yards to the SCST 40Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+40
99.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 40 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:141% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10MISSED FG10 plays · 34 yds · 3:3899% → 99%
Q2 6:16
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
99.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 6 yds to the GT 44Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-15
99.0%
Georgia Tech Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the GT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+25
99.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Christian Leary for 25 yds to the SCST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 11TD9 plays · 70 yds · 2:041% → 3%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
98.8%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to KeShawn Toney for 3 yds to the SCST 33Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+25
98.8%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Richard Bailey for 25 yds to the GT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
98.7%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Richard Bailey for 7 yds to the GT 35Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+6
98.6%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to KeShawn Toney for 6 yds to the GT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
98.5%
(01:04) FIELDS, JR., Corey pass deep to the right incomplete intended for LINDER, Jaylin thrown to the GT11. PENALTY GT Pass Interference on SIMS, Myles enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the GT15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
98.5%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Jordan Smith for 13 yds to the GT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.9%
Kacy Fields run for 1 yd for a TD (Gavyn Zimmerman PAT BLOCKED) Georgia Tech Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (D'Quan Douse) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:0498% → 99%
SCSTDrive 13Uncategorized1 play · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14TD1 play · 55 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
99.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Trey Cooley for 55 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 15TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:030% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16FG7 plays · 55 yds · 2:1199% → 100%
SCSTDrive 17FUMBLE10 plays · 49 yds · 6:211% → 1%
Q3 9:22
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
99.4%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Jordan Smith for 9 yds to the SCST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+8
99.3%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to Richard Bailey for 8 yds to the GT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+15
99.4%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to KeShawn Toney for 15 yds to the GT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
99.4%
Corey Fields Jr. pass complete to KeShawn Toney for 5 yds to the GT 28Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+2
99.4%
Jawarn Howell run for 2 yds to the GT 26 Jawarn Howell fumbled, recovered by GT Kyle KennardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18TD11 plays · 74 yds · 2:56100% → 100%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
99.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Christian Leary for 3 yds to the GT 29Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+14
99.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 14 yds to the GT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:17
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+14
99.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 14 yds to the SCST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
99.8%
KING, Haynes pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SINGLETON, JR., Eric thrown to the SCS0. PENALTY SCS Offsides on GODBOLT, Patrick enforced 5 yards from the SCS20 to the SCS15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 1:450% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20FG8 plays · 35 yds · 3:42100% → 100%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
99.9%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Dontae Smith for 1 yd to the SCST 45Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+20
99.9%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 20 yds to the SCST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-1
99.9%
Zach Pyron pass complete to Malik Rutherford for a loss of 1 yard to the SCST 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 21PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 3:280% → 0%
Q4 9:33
4TH & 5
OWN 43
-5
100.0%
South Carolina State Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the SCST 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 22INT2 plays · -3 yds · 0:46100% → 100%
SCSTDrive 23DOWNS4 plays · 8 yds · 1:370% → 0%
Q4 3:42
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+4
100.0%
Prometheus Franklin II pass complete to Shamontae Burgess for 4 yds to the GT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 24END OF GAME5 plays · 32 yds · 3:42100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:34
Kacy Fields run for 1 yd for a TD (Gavyn Zimmerman PAT BLOCKED) Georgia Tech Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (D'Quan Douse) to the 50 yard line
-1.7
TD · Q2 0:16
Haynes King pass complete to Brett Seither for 8 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
+1.6
TD · Q3 14:42
Haynes King pass complete to Trey Cooley for 55 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
+1