2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreODU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:04 · Peter Moore punt for 51 yds, downed at the ODU 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:33: Grant Wilson pass complete to Dominic Dutton for 16 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — ODU win probability +5.2 pts (now 18%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:03: Grant Wells pass complete to Ali Jennings for 10 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +4.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:59: Grant Wells pass complete to Ali Jennings for 6 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +6.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:43: Grant Wilson pass complete to Keshawn Wicks for 5 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK) — ODU win probability +12.8 pts (now 24%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:09: Grant Wells run for 1 yd for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +7.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ODU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 14:04VT 4th & 3 at VT 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snapGo for it84.9%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.9%average punt
- Q1 12:12ODU 4th & 14 at ODU 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snapGo for it15.4%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.6%average punt
- Q1 6:42VT 4th & 2 at ODU 2, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.9%48% to convertField goal82.7%−0.294% to makePunt81.9%−0.9average punt
- Q1 0:54VT 4th & 2 at ODU 37, up 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.6%57% to convertField goal81.3%−0.340% to makePunt81.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 6:41VT 4th & 5 at VT 43, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snapGo for it78.5%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.6%average punt
- Q2 5:22ODU 4th & 12 at ODU 33, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snapGo for it19.6%−1.423% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.0%average punt
- Q2 0:00ODU 4th & 11 at VT 11, down 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.7% before the snapGo for it15.7%−0.922% to convertField goalTheir call16.6%87% to makePunt11.0%−5.6average punt
- Q4 14:53VT 4th & 1 at ODU 13, up 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.5%71% to convertField goal92.0%−1.585% to makePunt87.1%−6.4average punt
- Q4 13:12ODU 4th & 9 at ODU 14, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snapGo for it6.8%−0.730% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.5%average punt
- Q4 9:28VT 4th & 8 at ODU 10, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snapGo for it93.9%−0.528% to convertField goalTheir call94.4%88% to makePunt89.0%−5.4average punt
- Q4 5:38VT 4th & 4 at ODU 4, up 16Close callKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snapGo for it97.0%40% to convertField goalTheir call96.8%−0.293% to makePunt95.0%−2.0average punt
- Q4 4:14ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 34, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 3:14VT 4th & 9 at ODU 33, up 19Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.8%−<0.132% to convertField goal98.9%49% to makePuntTheir call98.6%−0.3average punt
- Q4 1:33ODU 4th & 2 at ODU 28, down 19Close callPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ODU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 14:53VT Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.8%97% to makeGo for two84.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:33ODU Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.2%97% to makeGo for two21.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:03VT Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.2%97% to makeGo for two85.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:59VT Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.7%97% to makeGo for two88.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:43ODU Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.2%97% to makeGo for two17.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:09VT Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.8%97% to makeGo for two90.7%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0390% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3711% → 11%
VTDrive 3DOWNS10 plays · 46 yds · 5:2589% → 88%
Q1 11:44
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+9
89.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 9 yds to the ODU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 4SF8 plays · 22 yds · 2:3213% → 13%
Q1 4:42
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-4
86.4%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Ahmarian Granger for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5TD10 plays · 55 yds · 4:0887% → 88%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
87.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 5 yds to the ODU 40Similar
Q1 0:54
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+15
86.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 15 yds to the ODU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+20
88.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 20 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 6TD12 plays · 83 yds · 5:1112% → 18%
VTDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 2:4284% → 83%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 1:0918% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9TD9 plays · 62 yds · 3:1083% → 88%
Q2 4:17
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+10
83.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 10 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+34
82.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 34 yds to the ODU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
88.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Ali Jennings for 10 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 10FG17 plays · 64 yds · 2:0314% → 16%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
86.5%
Grant Wilson sacked by Antwaun Powell-Ryland Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the ODU 20Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
86.6%
Virginia Tech Penalty, Targeting on STROMAN, Jalen enforced (Jalen Stroman) to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
85.8%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Ahmarian Granger for 3 yds to the ODU 44Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+15
85.7%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Ahmarian Granger for 15 yds to the VT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11FUMBLE7 plays · 44 yds · 2:3617% → 20%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
82.9%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Isiah Paige for 5 yds to the ODU 40Similar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
81.4%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Kadarius Calloway for 8 yds to the VT 44Similar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
80.5%
Kadarius Calloway run for 8 yds to the VT 31 Kadarius Calloway fumbled, recovered by VT Nasir PeoplesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12TD6 plays · 69 yds · 2:1784% → 92%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
84.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Bhayshul Tuten for 5 yds to the VT 36Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+34
85.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 34 yds to the ODU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+10
85.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Ali Jennings for 10 yds to the ODU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
92.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Ali Jennings for 6 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:159% → 24%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.2%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Kelby Williams for 6 yds to the ODU 31Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+15
89.3%
Virginia Tech Penalty, Targeting on PAYNE, Pheldarius enforced (Pheldarius Payne) to the VT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
76.2%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Keshawn Wicks for 5 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14TD8 plays · 65 yds · 3:3483% → 93%
Q3 5:11
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
83.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 4 yds to the VT 40Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+44
83.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Ali Jennings for 44 yds to the ODU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 13
OPP 19
+14
84.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 14 yds to the ODU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15FUMBLE1 play · 12 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
91.8%
Devin Roche run for 12 yds to the ODU 37 Devin Roche fumbled, recovered by VT Josh FugaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16DOWNS7 plays · 24 yds · 1:5894% → 94%
Q3 1:37
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+15
93.4%
(01:37) WELLS, Grant pass deep to the left incomplete intended for LANE, Jaylin thrown to the ODU0, clock 01:32. PENALTY ODU Pass Interference on RA-EL, Tahj enforced 15 yards to the ODU22 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:367% → 7%
Q4 14:06
2ND & 14
OWN 9
+5
93.0%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Keshawn Wicks for 5 yds to the ODU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18FG8 plays · 40 yds · 3:4095% → 97%
ODUDrive 19INT3 plays · 20 yds · 0:534% → 4%
VTDrive 20FG5 plays · 5 yds · 2:3297% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 1:242% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5799% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:372% → 2%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
98.4%
Grant Wilson sacked by C.J. McCray for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 19Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-4
98.5%
Grant Wilson sacked by Wilfried Pene for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 15Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+13
98.5%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Obie Sanni for 13 yds to the ODU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:43
Grant Wilson pass complete to Keshawn Wicks for 5 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
-12.8
TD · Q3 2:09
Grant Wells run for 1 yd for a TD (John Love KICK)
+7.4
TD · Q3 9:59
Grant Wells pass complete to Ali Jennings for 6 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
+6.6