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Notre Dame 45 at NC State 24

NCSU
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:28 · Caden Noonkester punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the ND 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Home team on offense+0.1Pregame prior−20.6Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:16: Bradley Rozner 9 Yd pass from Brennan Armstrong (Brayden Narveson Kick) — NCSU win probability +12.9 pts (now 41%) (top driver: NCSU +2 timeouts on the defense).
  2. TD · Q2 0:40: Jaden Greathouse 13 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader Kick) — ND win probability +8.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:50: Holden Staes 40 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader Kick) — ND win probability +11.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:55: Brennan Armstrong 1 Yd Run (Brayden Narveson Kick) — NCSU win probability +18.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:38: Davis Sherwood 10 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader Kick) — ND win probability +10.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:52ND 4th & 21 at ND 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:28NCSU 4th & 10 at ND 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:52ND 4th & 10 at ND 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:09NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:18ND 4th & 9 at NCSU 36, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.1%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    61.9%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:45NCSU 4th & 8 at ND 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    37.8%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:16NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:45ND 4th & 5 at ND 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:57ND 4th & 4 at ND 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:04NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:19ND 4th & 16 at NCSU 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.2%
    38% to make
    Punt
    69.9%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:16NCSU 4th & 5 at ND 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:42ND 4th & 5 at ND 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:27NCSU 4th & 2 at ND 31, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.7%−1.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−2.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:57NCSU 4th & 9 at ND 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−11.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:49ND 4th & 4 at ND 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:38NCSU 4th & 5 at midfield, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q2 14:32ND Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:16NCSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:40ND Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:50ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:55NCSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:38ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:42ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:35ND Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:03NCSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:5772% → 70%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.5%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the ND 26Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
28.8%
Audric Estime run for no gain to the ND 26Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-12
29.4%
Sam Hartman sacked by Davin Vann for a loss of 12 yards to the ND 14 Sam Hartman fumbled, forced by Davin Vann, recovered by ND Pat Coogan , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+15
29.6%
Bryce McFerson punt for 50 yds , Jalen Coit returns for 15 yds to the ND 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2230% → 30%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
29.7%
Julian Gray run for no gain to the ND 49Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
29.8%
NC State Penalty, False Start (Christopher Toudle) to the NCSU 46Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+5
29.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 5 yds to the ND 49Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
30.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
30.0%
Caden Noonkester punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the ND 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2370% → 69%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
30.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for no gain to the ND 10Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
30.5%
Audric Estime run for no gain to the ND 10Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
30.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jayden ThomasSimilar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 10
OWN 10
+9
31.1%
Bryce McFerson punt for 59 yds , Jalen Coit returns for 9 yds to the NCSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:1631% → 31%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
31.4%
Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the NCSU 44Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
31.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Michael AllenSimilar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
31.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q1 9:09
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
31.1%
Caden Noonkester punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the ND 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 5:4769% → 67%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
31.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jayden ThomasSimilar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
31.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jayden ThomasSimilar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+16
31.4%
Sam Hartman run for 16 yds to the ND 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
31.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 2 yds to the ND 32Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+9
31.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jadarian Price for 9 yds to the ND 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
31.4%
Jadarian Price run for 11 yds to the NCSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
31.6%
Jadarian Price run for 9 yds to the NCSU 39Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+2
31.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 2 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
32.1%
Jadarian Price run for 3 yds to the NCSU 34Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 7
OPP 34
-14
31.9%
Sam Hartman sacked by Davin Vann for a loss of 14 yards to the NCSU 48 Notre Dame Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Sam Hartman) to the NCSU 48Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 21
OPP 48
+12
33.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Audric Estime for 12 yds to the NCSU 36Similar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 9
OPP 36
+54
32.7%
Spencer Shrader 54 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 3:1533% → 34%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
32.5%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the NCSU 27Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
32.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 26Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+21
32.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 21 yds to the NCSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
34.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSU 45Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+13
33.6%
Jordan Houston run for 13 yds to the ND 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
34.9%
Kevin Concepcion pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
35.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the ND 40Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
34.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
34.0%
Caden Noonkester punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
28.8%
Audric Estime 80 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 2:4428% → 27%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the NCSU 25Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
27.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
27.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
27.1%
Notre Dame Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jack Kiser) to the NCSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
28.0%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the NCSU 37Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-10
27.9%
Armstrong, Brennan pass incomplete to Allen, Michael, PENALTY NCSU holding (Belton, Anthony) 10 yards to the NCSU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 19
OWN 27
+3
27.3%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the NCSU 30Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+9
26.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 9 yds to the NCSU 39Similar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
26.7%
Caden Noonkester punt for 44 yds, downed at the ND 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1872% → 70%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
28.5%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the ND 19Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+3
28.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 3 yds to the ND 22Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 5
OWN 22
0
29.0%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jayden ThomasSimilar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 5
OWN 22
+9
29.6%
Bryce McFerson punt for 47 yds , Jalen Coit returns for 9 yds to the NCSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
28.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted Benjamin Morrison return for no gain to the ND 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3071% → 72%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
28.7%
Jadarian Price run for no gain to the ND 16Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+6
29.0%
Jeremiyah Love run for 6 yds to the ND 22Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 4
OWN 22
0
27.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Rico Flores Jr.Similar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 4
OWN 22
+8
27.9%
Bryce McFerson punt for 53 yds , Jalen Coit returns for 8 yds to the NCSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5027% → 26%
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
26.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Terrell Timmons Jr.Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
26.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Trent Pennix for 5 yds to the NCSU 38Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
26.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Juice VereenSimilar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 5
OWN 38
-5
26.3%
NC State Penalty, False Start (Caden Fordham) to the NCSU 33Similar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
25.6%
Caden Noonkester punt for 45 yds, downed at the ND 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13MISSED FG
10 plays · 40 yds · 4:3673% → 73%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
26.9%
Audric Estime run for 7 yds to the ND 29Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 3
OWN 29
-5
26.2%
Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Pat Coogan) to the ND 24Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+7
26.9%
Audric Estime run for 7 yds to the ND 31Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
26.5%
Mitchell Evans run for 2 yds to the ND 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
26.2%
Hartman, Sam rush for 2 yards to the NOTREDAME35, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Alt, Joe) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+45
26.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 45 yds to the NCSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
25.1%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 1 yd to the NCSU 31Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
25.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Holden StaesSimilar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 9
OPP 31
-7
25.4%
Sam Hartman sacked by Aydan White for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSU 38Similar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 16
OPP 38
+56
26.9%
Spencer Shrader 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14TD
11 plays · 62 yds · 0:5927% → 41%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
26.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Bradley RoznerSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+16
26.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Juice Vereen for 16 yds to the ND 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
28.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Julian Gray for 7 yds to the ND 39 for a 1ST down Notre Dame Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Benjamin Morrison) to the ND 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
28.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+12
28.3%
Armstrong, Brennan rush for loss of 2 yards to the NOTREDAME26, PENALTY NOTREDAME personal foul (Mills, Rylie) 12 yards to the NOTREDAME12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSU.Similar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
28.4%
Armstrong, Brennan pass incomplete to Vereen, Juice, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Harper, Thomas) 6 yards to the NOTREDAME6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSU.Similar
Q2 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
28.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jordan Houston for no gain to the ND 6Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
29.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for a loss of 3 yards to the ND 9 Brennan Armstrong fumbled, recovered by NCSU Brennan ArmstrongSimilar
Q2 1:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
40.8%
Bradley Rozner 9 Yd pass from Brennan Armstrong (Brayden Narveson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 0:2464% → 78%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
36.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Mitchell EvansSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+65
36.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Chris Tyree for 65 yds to the NCSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
22.4%
Jaden Greathouse 13 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16END OF HALF
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:3026% → 26%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
25.7%
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the NCSU 30Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+22
25.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Juice Vereen for 22 yds to the ND 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
26.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dacari CollinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
14 plays · 27 yds · 3:3425% → 24%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
24.9%
Keyon Lesane run for 4 yds to the NCSU 29Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
25.3%
Notre Dame Penalty, Defensive Offside (Howard Cross III) to the NCSU 34Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
25.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Jordan HoustonSimilar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
24.8%
Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
24.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
24.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 9 yds to the NCSU 44Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
25.4%
Delbert Mimms III run for 3 yds to the NCSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
25.9%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the NCSU 48Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+8
25.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Julian Gray for 8 yds to the ND 44Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-4
26.2%
NC State Penalty, False Start (Keyon Lesane) to the ND 48Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
25.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q3 11:16
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
23.7%
Caden Noonkester punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Chris Tyree at the ND 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:2376% → 75%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
23.9%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the ND 16Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+3
24.2%
Jadarian Price run for 3 yds to the ND 19Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 6
OWN 19
-9
24.6%
Hartman, Sam pass complete to Merriweather, Tobias for 8 yards to the NOTREDAME27, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Greathouse, Jaden) 9 yards to the NOTREDAME10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 15
OWN 10
+10
24.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Audric Estime for 10 yds to the ND 20Similar
Q3 8:42
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
25.0%
Bryce McFerson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19FG
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:1323% → 30%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+25
23.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Juice Vereen for 10 yds Juice Vereen fumbled, forced by Ramon Henderson, recovered by NCSU Juice Vereen for a 1ST down Notre Dame Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the ND 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
25.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Terrell Timmons Jr.Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
25.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Juice VereenSimilar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+8
24.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 8 yds to the ND 31Similar
Q3 7:27
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+49
29.9%
Brayden Narveson 49 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 1:2575% → 88%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+28
25.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Holden Staes for 28 yds to the NCSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
22.7%
Audric Estime run for 8 yds to the NCSU 40Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+40
11.7%
Holden Staes 40 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3515% → 34%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
14.7%
Keyon Lesane run for 8 yds to the NCSU 33Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
14.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the NCSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+38
15.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 38 yds to the ND 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
16.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Juice VereenSimilar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
15.9%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the ND 18Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+17
15.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Juice Vereen for 17 yds to the ND 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.7%
Brennan Armstrong 1 Yd Run (Brayden Narveson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:2976% → 77%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the ND 27Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
23.5%
Sam Hartman sacked by Brandon Cleveland for a loss of 10 yards to the ND 17 Sam Hartman fumbled, forced by Brandon Cleveland, recovered by NCSU Noah Potter , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23MISSED FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0334% → 29%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
33.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-5
33.7%
NC State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ND 22Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 15
OPP 22
0
32.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Julian GraySimilar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 15
OPP 22
+6
29.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the ND 16Similar
Q3 0:57
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+34
29.1%
Brayden Narveson 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0376% → 75%
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
24.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Mitchell EvansSimilar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
24.6%
Audric Estime run for 8 yds to the ND 28Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-2
22.7%
Audric Estime run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 26Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
25.3%
Bryce McFerson punt for 51 yds, downed at the NCSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25INT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:2325% → 24%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
25.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Terrell Timmons Jr.Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-7
25.0%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the NCSU 26 NC State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Lyndon Cooper) to the NCSU 16Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 17
OWN 16
0
24.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 17
OWN 16
0
23.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted Xavier Watts return for no gain to the NCSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 2:2282% → 94%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
17.7%
Jeremiyah Love run for 3 yds to the NCSU 30Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+12
17.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Holden Staes for 12 yds to the NCSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
17.3%
Jeremiyah Love run for 5 yds to the NCSU 13Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+3
17.2%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 3 yds to the NCSU 10Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+10
6.4%
Davis Sherwood 10 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 27INT
4 plays · -15 yds · 0:1411% → 11%
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
11.1%
NC State Penalty, False Start (Anthony Belton) to the NCSU 21Similar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 15
OWN 21
-10
10.8%
Armstrong, Brennan pass complete to Timmons Jr., Terrell for 6 yards to the NCSU27, PENALTY NCSU pass interference (Pennix, Trent) 10 yards to the NCSU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 25
OWN 11
0
10.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted DJ Brown return for no gain to the NCSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 28TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:2894% → 98%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
6.1%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+9
6.0%
Audric Estime run for 9 yds to the NCSU 7Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+7
1.6%
Audric Estime 7 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 29DOWNS
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:372% → 2%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.2%
Delbert Mimms III run for 4 yds to the NCSU 29Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
2.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the NCSU 30Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
2.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 15 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
2.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
2.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the NCSU 49Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+1
2.1%
Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 5
50
+4
2.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 4 yds to the ND 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 30TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 2:4599% → 100%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
1.3%
Audric Estime run for 6 yds to the NCSU 48Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+5
1.1%
Jadarian Price run for 5 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
0.9%
Jeremiyah Love run for 7 yds to the NCSU 36Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+1
0.8%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 1 yd to the NCSU 35Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+35
0.2%
Holden Staes 35 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 31TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:070% → 1%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
0.1%
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the NCSU 36Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+17
0.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Porter Rooks for 17 yds to the ND 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
0.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Julian GraySimilar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
0.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Porter Rooks for 9 yds to the ND 38Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+3
0.1%
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the ND 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-7
0.1%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Donovan Hinish for a loss of 7 yards to the ND 42Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 17
OPP 42
+14
0.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 14 yds to the ND 28Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+5
0.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Porter Rooks for 5 yds to the ND 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
1.2%
Dacari Collins 23 Yd pass from Brennan Armstrong (Brayden Narveson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 32END OF GAME
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:08100% → 100%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
0.5%
Jadarian Price run for no gain to the NCSU 43Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
0.5%
Jeremiyah Love run for 1 yd to the NCSU 42Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+1
0.4%
Gi'Bran Payne run for 1 yd to the NCSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:55
Brennan Armstrong 1 Yd Run (Brayden Narveson Kick)
+18.2
TD · Q2 1:16
Bradley Rozner 9 Yd pass from Brennan Armstrong (Brayden Narveson Kick)
+12.9
TD · Q3 5:50
Holden Staes 40 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader Kick)
-11.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com