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FLA

Florida 31 at Missouri 33

MIZ
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:47 · Riley Williams punt for 45 yds, downed at the FLA 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialBlowout margin
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Pregame prior+22.9Home team on offense−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.5Score differential−0.2Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:16: Ricky Pearsall run for 39 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +16.1 pts (now 44%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:14: Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 77 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +17.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:49: Trevor Etienne run for 9 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +22.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 1:36: Trey Smack 35 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +32.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:05: Harrison Mevis 30 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +48.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 7FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:33MIZ 4th & 5 at FLA 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    77.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:08MIZ 4th & 8 at MIZ 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:42FLA 4th & 11 at FLA 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:47MIZ 4th & 9 at MIZ 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:27FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:43FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:21MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 36, up 3
    Close callPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:21MIZ 4th & 6 at FLA 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−3.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:14FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 31, down 9
    Numbers favored punt by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.7%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:44MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 36, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−5.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:36FLA 4th & 10 at MIZ 17, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−20.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−30.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:38MIZ 4th & 17 at MIZ 33, down 1
    Numbers favored punt by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.8%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:49FLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:29MIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:54FLA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:53MIZ Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:16FLA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:14MIZ Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:49FLA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.8%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:2779% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.8%
Brady Cook run for 5 yds to the MIZ 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
78.8%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the MIZ 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
78.8%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the MIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
78.8%
Nathaniel Peat run for 16 yds to the FLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
78.8%
Cody Schrader run for 15 yds to the FLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
78.8%
Cody Schrader run for 7 yds to the FLA 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 25
0
78.8%
Cody Schrader run for no gain to the FLA 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+16
78.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 16 yds to the FLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
78.8%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
78.8%
Brady Cook run for 4 yds to the FLA 5Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
78.8%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
78.1%
Harrison Mevis 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:3922% → 25%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
78.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 7 yds to the FLA 27Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+61
77.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 61 yds to the MIZ 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
77.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for no gain to the MIZ 12Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+4
77.5%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the MIZ 8Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+8
75.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 8 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3576% → 75%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
76.0%
Brady Cook run for 3 yds to the MIZ 35Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-1
76.0%
Cody Schrader run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 34Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
75.8%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
74.7%
Riley Williams punt for 50 yds, downed at the FLA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:2625% → 25%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
75.2%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+2
75.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 2 yds to the FLA 18Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 8
OWN 18
-5
75.6%
Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FLA 13Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 13
OWN 13
-5
75.6%
Florida Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the FLA 8Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 18
OWN 8
+7
75.7%
Graham Mertz run for 7 yds to the FLA 15Similar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 11
OWN 15
0
74.9%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5574% → 73%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
74.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 7 yds to the MIZ 37Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+6
74.8%
Cody Schrader run for 6 yds to the MIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
74.9%
Cody Schrader run for 1 yd to the MIZ 44Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
74.9%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
74.2%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
72.8%
Riley Williams punt for 45 yds, downed at the FLA 11Similar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
73.3%
Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FLA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2027% → 26%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+2
73.4%
Trevor Etienne run for 2 yds to the FLA 8Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 13
OWN 8
+5
73.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 5 yds to the FLA 13Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
73.7%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:27
4TH & 8
OWN 13
0
73.6%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 38 yds, downed at the MIZ 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 0:3174% → 76%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
73.6%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the FLA 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+7
73.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 7 yds to the FLA 42Similar
Q2 14:29
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+42
76.4%
Cody Schrader run for 42 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 4:4624% → 25%
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the FLA 30Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
75.4%
Graham Mertz run for 6 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
75.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the FLA 40Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
74.8%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the FLA 44Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-5
74.4%
Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FLA 39Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+8
75.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 8 yds to the FLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
74.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 49Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
74.1%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
74.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Trevor Etienne for no gain to the FLA 49Similar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
74.9%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kris Abrams-Draine at the MIZ 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 3:2275% → 75%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
75.0%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the MIZ 14Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+2
75.0%
Nathaniel Peat run for 2 yds to the MIZ 16Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+12
74.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 12 yds to the MIZ 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
75.3%
Cody Schrader run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIZ 25Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 13
OWN 25
0
74.9%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 13
OWN 25
+11
74.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 11 yds to the MIZ 36Similar
Q2 6:21
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
74.5%
Riley Williams punt for 44 yds, downed at the FLA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10INT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:1826% → 27%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
74.5%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
74.6%
MERTZ, Graham pass to the right incomplete intended for PEARSALL, Ricky thrown to the FLA31. PENALTY MIZ Pass Interference on NORWOOD, Dreyden enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the FLA32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
74.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for a loss of 5 yards to the FLA 27Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+1
74.8%
Graham Mertz run for 1 yd to the FLA 28Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 14
OWN 28
+10
75.3%
MERTZ, Graham pass deep to the left incomplete thrown to the MIZ40. PENALTY MIZ Holding on ABRAMS-DRAINE, Kris enforced 10 yards from the FLA28 to the FLA38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
73.5%
Trevor Etienne run for 2 yds to the FLA 40Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
72.9%
Graham Mertz pass intercepted Jaylon Carlies return for no gain to the MIZ 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:4275% → 80%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
75.3%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the MIZ 40Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
76.0%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+34
74.8%
Cody Schrader run for 34 yds to the FLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
77.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 3 yds to the FLA 23Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+6
77.2%
Cody Schrader run for 6 yds to the FLA 17Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 1
OPP 17
-5
76.0%
Brady Cook run for a loss of 5 yards to the FLA 22Similar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+38
79.5%
Harrison Mevis 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12END OF HALF
9 plays · 30 yds · 1:2121% → 24%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
78.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 22Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+18
79.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 18 yds to the FLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
77.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 12 yds to the MIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
75.4%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
76.4%
Florida Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Graham Mertz) to the FLA 40Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 22
OWN 40
+15
80.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 15 yds to the MIZ 45Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.4%
ETIENNE, Trevor rush up the middle for a gain of 8 yards to the FLA33 (RAKESTRAW JR., Ennis;NEWSON, Triston). PENALTY MIZ Offsides on WALKER, Johnny enforced 5 yards from the FLA25 to the FLA30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 3:0625% → 40%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+30
75.1%
Trevor Etienne run for 30 yds to the MIZ 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
73.8%
Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the MIZ 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+13
73.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 13 yds to the MIZ 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
71.7%
ETIENNE, Trevor rush to the right for a gain of 8 yards to the MIZ19 (HICKS, Chuck). PENALTY FLA Holding on LEONARD IV, Richie enforced 10 yards from the MIZ27 to the MIZ37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+37
60.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 37 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0164% → 80%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
64.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 8 yds to the MIZ 33Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
66.6%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the MIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+38
65.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 38 yds to the FLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
69.4%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+15
69.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 15 yds to the FLA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
69.3%
Cody Schrader run for 9 yds to the FLA 1Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.3%
Cody Schrader run for no gain to the FLA 1Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.7%
Brady Cook run for 1 yd for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 1:3024% → 44%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+38
75.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 38 yds to the MIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
72.1%
Trevor Etienne run for 5 yds to the MIZ 39Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+39
56.0%
Ricky Pearsall run for 39 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16FG
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:2362% → 73%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
62.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 11 yds to the MIZ 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
63.5%
Cody Schrader run for 1 yd to the MIZ 37Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
63.0%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
67.9%
SCHRADER, Cody rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the FLA1 (MARSHALL JR., Jason). PENALTY MIZ Holding on FOSTER, Javon enforced 10 yards from the FLA7 to the FLA17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
+4
67.8%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the FLA 13Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
-5
66.7%
COOK, Brady pass up the middle complete for 13 yards to NORFLEET, Brett caught at the FLA0 and advanced to the FLA0, TOUCHDOWN MIZ, score nullified by penalty, clock 04:51 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY MIZ Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on NORFLEET, Brett enforced 5 yards from the FLA13 to the FLA18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
+5
66.0%
COOK, Brady pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BURDEN, Luther broken up by HILL, Jaydon at the FLA0; QB hurried by UMANMIELEN, Princely, clock 04:42. PENALTY FLA Offsides on BANKS, Caleb enforced 5 yards from the FLA18 to the FLA13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+6
66.6%
Brady Cook run for 6 yds to the FLA 7Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
72.5%
Harrison Mevis 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17FUMBLE
11 plays · 56 yds · 4:5232% → 40%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.8%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the FLA 30Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
67.8%
Graham Mertz run for 11 yds to the FLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
64.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 43Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
64.6%
Max Brown pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 1
50
+26
63.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 26 yds to the MIZ 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
59.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIZ 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 21
-5
59.4%
Florida Penalty, False Start (Jake Slaughter) to the MIZ 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 26
0
60.8%
Missouri Penalty, Personal Foul (Johnny Walker Jr.) to the MIZ 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
60.0%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIZ 15Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 13
OPP 15
-4
60.3%
Max Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the MIZ 19 Max Brown fumbled, recovered by MIZ Kristian Williams [NHSG] QB Keeper BROWN, Max rush up the middle for a loss of 4 yards, BROWN, Max fumbled at MIZ19 , recovered by MIZ WILLIAMS, Kristian at the MIZ19, returned 0 yards to the MIZ19, End of Play, clock 14:01.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18TD
2 plays · 81 yds · 0:4769% → 86%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
68.6%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the MIZ 23Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+77
86.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 77 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 5:2514% → 41%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.0%
Trevor Etienne run for 2 yds to the FLA 27Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-7
85.6%
Max Brown sacked by Darius Robinson for a loss of 7 yards to the FLA 20Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+11
87.2%
Max Brown run for 11 yds to the FLA 31Similar
Q4 13:14
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
86.7%
Max Brown pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 5 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+27
85.0%
Max Brown pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 27 yds to the MIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
83.4%
Trevor Etienne run for 1 yd to the MIZ 36Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+12
83.6%
Max Brown run for 12 yds to the MIZ 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
81.8%
Max Brown run for 2 yds to the MIZ 22Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+13
81.7%
Trevor Etienne run for 13 yds to the MIZ 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
58.9%
Trevor Etienne run for 9 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 3:0570% → 72%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 5 yds to the MIZ 30Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
70.3%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
68.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 6 yds to the MIZ 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
71.0%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the MIZ 39Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
72.1%
Cody Schrader run for no gain to the MIZ 39Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-3
69.5%
Brady Cook sacked by Princely Umanmielen for a loss of 3 yards to the MIZ 36Similar
Q4 4:44
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
71.7%
Riley Williams punt for 26 yds, downed at the FLA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:0836% → 69%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
63.7%
Trevor Etienne run for 11 yds to the FLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
60.4%
Trevor Etienne run for 5 yds to the MIZ 46Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+2
59.7%
Trevor Etienne run for 2 yds to the MIZ 44Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+27
60.2%
Max Brown run for 27 yds to the MIZ 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
54.8%
Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 18Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 11
OPP 18
-1
58.4%
Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 19Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+2
63.4%
Trevor Etienne run for 2 yds to the MIZ 17Similar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+35
31.0%
Trey Smack 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 1:3147% → 96%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
46.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Cody Schrader for 2 yds to the MIZ 27Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
47.1%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
44.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 13 yds to the MIZ 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
51.3%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (Armand Membou) to the MIZ 35Similar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 15
OWN 35
-2
46.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Cody Schrader for a loss of 2 yards to the MIZ 33Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 17
OWN 33
0
46.0%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 17
OWN 33
0
31.4%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 17
OWN 33
+27
30.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 27 yds to the FLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
42.9%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
42.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 11 yds to the FLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
49.5%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+16
47.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 16 yds to the FLA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+30
95.7%
Harrison Mevis 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.6%
Max Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
86.8%
Max Brown pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 13 yds to the FLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:05
Harrison Mevis 30 yd FG GOOD
+48.1
FG · Q4 1:36
Trey Smack 35 yd FG GOOD
-32.4
TD · Q4 7:49
Trevor Etienne run for 9 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
-22.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com