2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreGAST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Kaleb Jackson run for no gain to the LSU 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:45: Marcus Carroll run for 44 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK) — GAST win probability +1.7 pts (now 5%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:00: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 27 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +1.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:26: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 70 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +2.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:23: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 13 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:00: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mac Markway for 3 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 4:04GAST 4th & 9 at midfield, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it5.3%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.3%average punt
- Q2 2:36GAST 4th & 7 at LSU 30, down 7Close callWent for it · 8.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.0%−<0.137% to convertField goal8.0%56% to makePunt7.3%−0.7average punt
- Q2 1:03GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 29, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it4.8%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.9%average punt
- Q3 11:00GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 41, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.5%average punt
- Q3 4:20GAST 4th & 6 at LSU 34, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%40% to convertField goal0.3%−<0.147% to makePunt0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 15:00LSU 4th & 1 at GAST 1, up 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%59% to convertField goal99.7%−0.294% to makePunt99.2%−0.6average punt
- Q4 11:03GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 41, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 3:54GAST 4th & 5 at LSU 13, down 42Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.139% to convertField goal0.0%85% to makePunt-0.1%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8GAST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 11:53GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.8%97% to makeGo for two3.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:20LSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.0%97% to makeGo for two96.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:07LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.6%97% to makeGo for two94.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:45GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.0%97% to makeGo for two7.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:00LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.4%97% to makeGo for two93.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:26LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.1%97% to makeGo for two95.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:23LSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:00LSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:44LSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:59LSU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGASTDrive 1TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:072% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 4 yds to the GAST 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+31
98.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Cadarrius Thompson for 31 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
98.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 5 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+7
98.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Cadarrius Thompson for 7 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
98.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 4 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+15
98.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Grainger,Darren pass incomplete deep right to Credle,Ja'Cyais PENALTY LSU Pass Interference (Stamps,Ashton) 15 yards from LSU21 to LSU06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 6 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3398% → 98%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
97.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 5 yds to the GAST 28Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+10
97.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 10 yds to the GAST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
97.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 18 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT11 plays · 25 yds · 5:113% → 4%
Q1 9:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
97.5%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 12 yds to the GAST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+11
97.4%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 11 yds to the GAST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
97.4%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 2 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 6
OPP 47
-10
97.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Grainger,Darren rush left for 6 yards gain to the LSU41 (Sam,Andre) PENALTY GSU Holding (Glover,Travis) 10 yards from LSU47 to GSU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 9
50
+27
96.5%
Kade Loggins punt for 30 yds , Javen Nicholas returns for 27 yds to the LSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4TD11 plays · 53 yds · 3:5797% → 97%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
96.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Daniels,Jayden rush right for 11 yards gain to the GSU42 (Veneziale,Jordan), out of bounds PENALTY LSU Holding (Frazier,Miles) 10 yards from LSU47 to LSU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+5
96.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Trey Holly for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 7
50
+18
96.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for 18 yds to the GAST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+11
96.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 11 yds Mason Taylor fumbled, recovered by LSU Mason Taylor for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
96.7%
J.Daniels pass complete short right to #8 M.Nabers for 13 yards to the GSU08 (#48 J.Abraham) PENALTY LSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#86 M.Taylor) 5 yards from GSU21 to GSU26. NO PLAY).Similar
Q1 3:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
96.7%
Brian Thomas Jr. run for 6 yds to the GAST 14 Brian Thomas Jr. fumbled, recovered by LSU Brian Thomas Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5TD8 plays · 79 yds · 2:154% → 5%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.5%
(00:00) PENALTY GSU Personal Foul offsetting LSU Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.5%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 11 yds to the GAST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
96.5%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 21 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
96.3%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Cadarrius Thompson for 1 yd to the LSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6TD9 plays · 80 yds · 2:4595% → 96%
Q2 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+33
95.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 33 yds to the GAST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 9
OPP 46
+7
95.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 7 yds to the GAST 39Similar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
95.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 9 yds to the GAST 27Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+27
96.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 27 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7DOWNS13 plays · 45 yds · 7:244% → 6%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ahmon Green for 1 yd to the GAST 26Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
95.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 15 yds to the GAST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+11
95.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 11 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-5
95.3%
PENALTY GSU Delay Of Game (Grainger,Darren) 5 yards from LSU33 to LSU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+5
95.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD1 play · 70 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
96.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 70 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9PUNT9 plays · 4 yds · 1:233% → 3%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
96.6%
Georgia State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GAST 17Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+12
96.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 12 yds to the GAST 34Similar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
96.6%
PENALTY GSU Delay Of Game (Grainger,Darren) 5 yards from GSU34 to GSU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
96.6%
Kade Loggins punt for 31 yds , Javen Nicholas returns for no gain to the LSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD6 plays · 60 yds · 0:4097% → 99%
Q2 1:03
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+15
97.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Daniels,Jayden pass incomplete deep left to Anderson,Aaron PENALTY GSU Pass Interference (Brown,Bryquice) 15 yards from LSU45 to GSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+32
97.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 32 yds to the GAST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
97.3%
(00:25) PENALTY LSU False Start 5 yards from GSU08 to GSU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
98.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 13 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11END OF HALF3 plays · 2 yds · 0:231% → 1%
LSUDrive 12TD9 plays · 70 yds · 3:5299% → 100%
Q3 14:52
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+9
98.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 9 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+7
98.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for 7 yds to the GAST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
98.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 5 yds to the GAST 23Similar
Q3 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mac Markway for 3 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13DOWNS13 plays · 38 yds · 6:400% → 0%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jacari Carter for 7 yds to the GAST 32Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 16
OWN 31
-5
99.7%
PENALTY GSU Delay Of Game (Grainger,Darren) 5 yards from GSU31 to GSU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 21
OWN 26
+6
99.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 6 yds to the GAST 32Similar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+10
99.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 10 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14TD11 plays · 63 yds · 4:36100% → 100%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
99.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 9 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
99.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 19 yds to the GAST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
99.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 15 yds to the GAST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
No Huddle Daniels,Jayden rush right for 0 yards to the GSU01 (Davis Jr.,Chris) PENALTY GSU Horse Collar Tackle (Davis Jr.,Chris), 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 3:410% → 0%
LSUDrive 16TD5 plays · 82 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q4 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
99.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 6 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+18
99.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 18 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
99.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 40 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17DOWNS11 plays · 61 yds · 4:590% → 0%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
100.0%
Mikele Colasurdo pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 6 yds to the GAST 20Similar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
100.0%
Mikele Colasurdo pass complete to KZ Adams for 3 yds to the GAST 41Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+41
100.0%
Mikele Colasurdo pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 41 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18END OF GAME5 plays · 19 yds · 3:54100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:26
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 70 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
+2.5
TD · Q2 12:45
Marcus Carroll run for 44 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
-1.7
TD · Q2 0:23
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 13 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
+1.6