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FLA

Florida 35 at LSU 52

LSU
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:37 · Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Pregame prior+20.3Home team on offense+2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:37: Trevor Etienne run for 21 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +12.6 pts (now 28%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 7:16: Graham Mertz run for 1 yd for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +17.0 pts (now 45%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:09: Jayden Daniels run for 51 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +16.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:27: Trevor Etienne run for 5 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +18.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 9:14: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 37 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +13.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4FLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 4:28LSU 4th & 1 at FLA 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    81.3%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    80.2%−1.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:53LSU 4th & 7 at FLA 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    80.5%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    80.5%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:38FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:52LSU 4th & 10 at FLA 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:34FLA 4th & 15 at FLA 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:11LSU 4th & 9 at FLA 47, up 3
    Close callPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:37FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:19FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:34FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.9%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:08FLA 4th & 12 at LSU 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:28FLA 4th & 5 at LSU 5, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−0.6
    92% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:59LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:58FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:21LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:30FLA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:05LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:37FLA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:16FLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:09LSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:18LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:27FLA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.0%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.5%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 9:14LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 2:25LSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0188% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.5%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the LSU 26Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+38
87.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 38 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
87.3%
Jayden Daniels run for 14 yds to the FLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+18
87.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 18 yds to the FLA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
87.3%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the FLA 1Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.3%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0113% → 15%
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the FLA 31Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
87.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 8 yds to the FLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
87.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 8 yds to the FLA 47Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+5
87.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 5 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
87.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 6 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+14
87.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 14 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+19
86.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 19 yds to the LSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
85.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 9 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3DOWNS
12 plays · 74 yds · 4:3086% → 84%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
85.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+18
85.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 18 yds to the FLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
86.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 6 yds to the FLA 42Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+10
86.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 10 yds to the FLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
86.1%
John Emery Jr. run for 8 yds to the FLA 24Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+4
86.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 4 yds to the FLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
86.1%
John Emery Jr. run for 14 yds to the FLA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
86.1%
Josh Williams run for 5 yds to the FLA 1Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.1%
Josh Williams run for no gain to the FLA 1Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.0%
Josh Williams run for no gain to the FLA 1Similar
Q1 4:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
84.4%
Josh Williams run for no gain to the FLA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 41 yds · 2:2316% → 18%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+24
84.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 24 yds to the FLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
84.0%
Trevor Etienne run for 8 yds to the FLA 33Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
83.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 10 yds to the FLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
83.5%
Trevor Etienne run for 2 yds to the FLA 45Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
83.5%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Ricky PearsallSimilar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 8
OWN 45
-3
82.5%
Graham Mertz sacked by Bradyn Swinson for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 42 Graham Mertz fumbled, recovered by LSU Javien Toviano , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5DOWNS
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1284% → 83%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
84.2%
Kaleb Jackson run for 5 yds to the FLA 37Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
84.2%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 5
OPP 37
-2
84.0%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Jaydon Hill for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 39Similar
Q1 0:53
4TH & 7
OPP 39
-2
83.0%
Jayden Daniels sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1518% → 18%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
81.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the FLA 41Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-15
81.9%
PENALTY FLA Personal Foul (George Jr.,Damieon) 15 yards from FLA41 to FLA26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 25
OWN 26
+7
82.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 7 yds to the FLA 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 33
+11
82.4%
Graham Mertz run for 11 yds to the FLA 44 Florida Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ricky Pearsall) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:38
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
81.9%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7FG
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:4682% → 83%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
82.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Mason TaylorSimilar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+41
82.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 41 yds to the FLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+38
83.4%
Jayden Daniels run for 38 yds to the FLA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
83.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brian Thomas Jr.Similar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
83.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds to the FLA 14Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+3
82.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 3 yds to the FLA 11Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
82.6%
Damian Ramos 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 3:1818% → 18%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
81.9%
Graham Mertz sacked by Paris Shand for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 34Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+4
82.2%
Trevor Etienne run for 4 yds to the FLA 38Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+9
81.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 9 yds to the FLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
80.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 4 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+1
80.7%
Trevor Etienne run for 1 yd to the LSU 48Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 5
OPP 48
-5
80.9%
Graham Mertz sacked by Harold Perkins Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the FLA 42 Graham Mertz fumbled, recovered by FLA Austin Barber , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 8:34
4TH & 15
OWN 42
0
81.8%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9TD
1 play · 85 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+85
89.3%
Jayden Daniels run for 85 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5115% → 23%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Hayden HansenSimilar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 27Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
85.6%
PENALTY FLA False Start (Waites,Kamryn) 5 yards from FLA27 to FLA22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+5
85.8%
PENALTY LSU Delay Of Game (Speights,Omar) 5 yards from FLA22 to FLA27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+36
85.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 18 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Targeting (18 Yards) to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
84.0%
Graham Mertz run for 6 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+5
83.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
83.3%
LSU Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (13 Yards) to the LSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
83.3%
Eugene Wilson III run for 6 yds to the LSU 7Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
76.9%
Trevor Etienne run for 7 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:1981% → 80%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.4%
Jayden Daniels run for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
81.6%
Kaleb Jackson run for 8 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
82.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 14 yds to the FLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
83.1%
Kaleb Jackson run for 1 yd to the FLA 47Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
83.0%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
82.1%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:11
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
80.2%
Jay Bramblett punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ricky Pearsall at the FLA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12END OF HALF
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:1621% → 21%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
79.1%
PENALTY FLA Delay Of Game (Mertz,Graham) 5 yards from FLA10 to FLA05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+1
79.3%
Trevor Etienne run for 1 yd to the FLA 6Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 14
OWN 6
+3
79.8%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the FLA 9Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 11
OWN 9
+5
80.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mertz,Graham pass incomplete short right PENALTY LSU Offside (Smith,Maason) 5 yards from FLA09 to FLA14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+4
79.6%
Trevor Etienne run for 4 yds to the FLA 18Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
78.9%
Dibert,Nathan kickoff 65 yards to the FLA00 Etienne,Trevor return 7 yards to the FLA07 (Hughes,Jeremiah) PENALTY LSU Offside (Carpenter,Dylan) 5 yards from LSU35 to LSU30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1121% → 20%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
78.6%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the FLA 27Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+1
78.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 28Similar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
79.0%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Montrell Johnson Jr.Similar
Q3 13:37
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
79.6%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 2:3279% → 88%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
79.1%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the LSU 20Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+27
79.0%
Jayden Daniels run for 27 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
80.8%
Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 7
50
+45
80.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for 45 yds to the FLA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
81.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Mason TaylorSimilar
Q3 11:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
88.2%
Kaleb Jackson run for 5 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2814% → 28%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
86.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 33 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
85.1%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+18
85.0%
Trevor Etienne run for 18 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
72.5%
Trevor Etienne run for 21 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16TD
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:1628% → 45%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
72.5%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 8 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+3
72.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the LSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
72.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+4
72.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.4%
Graham Mertz run for 1 yd for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0762% → 79%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
61.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 12 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
62.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr.Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+12
62.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 12 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
78.9%
Jayden Daniels run for 51 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5025% → 23%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 5 yds to the FLA 30Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
74.4%
Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the FLA 30Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+29
75.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to for 29 yds to the FLA 30Similar
Q3 4:19
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
77.2%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 2:0176% → 89%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
75.8%
Noah Cain run for 8 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+52
77.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 52 yds to the FLA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
79.3%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brian Thomas Jr.Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
79.3%
Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the FLA 6Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
88.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Noah Cain for 6 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:5113% → 34%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Montrell Johnson Jr.Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
87.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Marcus Burke for 20 yds to the FLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
86.0%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 47Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+2
85.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 49Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-5
85.6%
PENALTY FLA False Start (Waites,Kamryn) 5 yards from FLA49 to FLA44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+12
88.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 12 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
86.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 35
-2
85.1%
Graham Mertz sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+5
86.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
85.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+9
85.1%
Trevor Etienne run for 9 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
85.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 8 yds to the LSU 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+6
85.1%
Trevor Etienne run for 6 yds to the LSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
66.5%
Trevor Etienne run for 5 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1377% → 91%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.8%
Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+34
77.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 44 yds to the FLA 27 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brian Thomas Jr.) to the FLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
90.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 37 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:4010% → 9%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
90.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 12 yds to the FLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
89.4%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the FLA 45Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+3
89.2%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the FLA 48Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+1
89.4%
Trevor Etienne run for 1 yd to the FLA 49Similar
Q4 6:34
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
91.4%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Eugene Wilson IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 4:0993% → 99%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
92.9%
Josh Williams run for 4 yds to the FLA 45Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+14
93.0%
Jayden Daniels run for 14 yds to the FLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
93.1%
Josh Williams run for 11 yds to the FLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
93.1%
Josh Williams run for 4 yds to the FLA 16Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+6
93.1%
Noah Cain run for 6 yds to the FLA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
95.2%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the FLA 7Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 7 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24DOWNS
19 plays · 70 yds · 1:572% → 1%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
98.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 24 yds to the FLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
98.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 7 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+8
98.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 8 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
97.9%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Montrell Johnson Jr.Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-10
97.9%
(01:36) No Huddle-Shotgun Mertz,Graham rush left for 6 yards gain to the LSU30 (Welch,Laterrance) PENALTY FLA Holding (Barber,Austin) 10 yards from LSU36 to LSU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 20
OPP 46
-10
98.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mertz,Graham pass complete short right to Boardingham,Arlis for 6 yards to the LSU40, out of bounds at LSU40 PENALTY FLA Holding (George Jr.,Damieon) 10 yards from LSU46 to FLA44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 30
OWN 44
0
98.4%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kahleil JacksonSimilar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 30
OWN 44
+18
98.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 18 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q4 1:08
4TH & 12
OPP 38
+15
99.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 15 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 3 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+10
99.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 10 yds to the LSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
99.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mertz,Graham pass incomplete, Spike PENALTY LSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from LSU10 to LSU05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.9%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Montrell Johnson Jr.Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.7%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Arlis BoardinghamSimilar
Q4 1:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Arlis BoardinghamSimilar
Q4 0:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.0%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Eugene Wilson IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
99.1%
Kneel down by LSU at LSU04 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:27
Trevor Etienne run for 5 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
-18.6
TD · Q3 7:16
Graham Mertz run for 1 yd for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
-17
TD · Q3 6:09
Jayden Daniels run for 51 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
+16.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com