Try the model
UGA

Georgia 43 at Florida 20

FLA
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · EverBank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreUGA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:23: Carson Beck pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 41 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +2.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:25: Daijun Edwards run for 20 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +2.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:34: Daijun Edwards run for 2 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +5.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:18: Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 17 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:29: Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — FLA win probability +2.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 6:16UGA 4th & 4 at FLA 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.4%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:37FLA 4th & 22 at FLA 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−1.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:55FLA 4th & 1 at FLA 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.9%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:34UGA 4th & 1 at FLA 2, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.3%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    77.2%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    74.6%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:26FLA 4th & 16 at FLA 19, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:10UGA 4th & 10 at UGA 42, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:48FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 20, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:50UGA 4th & 12 at FLA 40, up 19
    Close callPunted · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    90.5%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:50FLA 4th & 10 at midfield, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:22UGA 4th & 4 at FLA 42, up 19
    Close callPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    91.4%−1.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:15FLA 4th & 11 at FLA 19, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:05UGA 4th & 7 at FLA 14, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−5.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:10FLA 4th & 3 at UGA 25, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−0.7
    66% to make
    Punt
    -1.4%−5.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 3UGA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:19FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:23UGA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:25UGA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:34UGA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:18UGA Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:29FLA Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:57UGA Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:20FLA Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:1117% → 20%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+27
16.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 27 yds to the UGA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
17.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the UGA 36Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-2
17.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 38Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+9
17.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 9 yds to the UGA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
18.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the UGA 26Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+1
18.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 1 yd to the UGA 25Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+25
19.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 25 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2FG
12 plays · 71 yds · 4:2980% → 78%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
19.6%
Daijun Edwards run for 4 yds to the UGA 29Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
19.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 15 yds to the UGA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
20.0%
Dillon Bell run for 7 yds to the FLA 49Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+6
20.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 6 yds to the FLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
20.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Daijun Edwards for 3 yds to the FLA 40Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+18
21.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Oscar Delp for 18 yds to the FLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+17
21.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 17 yds to the FLA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
21.5%
Daijun Edwards run for no gain to the FLA 5Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
22.0%
Kendall Milton run for 1 yd to the FLA 4Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
22.6%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
21.7%
Peyton Woodring 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:0722% → 24%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 2 yds to the FLA 27Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
22.8%
Trevor Etienne run for 13 yds to the FLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
23.3%
Trevor Etienne run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
50
+4
23.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for a loss of 6 yards to the FLA 48 lat. to Ricky Pearsall for 4 yds to the FLA 48Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+3
23.5%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the UGA 49Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-13
24.2%
Graham Mertz sacked by Jalon Walker for a loss of 13 yards to the FLA 38 Graham Mertz fumbled, recovered by FLA Damieon George Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 2:37
4TH & 22
OWN 38
+13
23.6%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 41 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 13 yds to the UGA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:0976% → 78%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
24.1%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Daijun EdwardsSimilar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
24.4%
Dillon Bell run for 6 yds to the UGA 40Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+19
24.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Rara Thomas for 19 yds to the FLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
23.9%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+41
21.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 41 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:2123% → 23%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
22.5%
Florida Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (-12 Yards) to the FLA 13Similar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+12
22.6%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 12 yds to the FLA 25Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
22.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 4 yds to the FLA 29Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
22.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 5 yds to the FLA 34Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-3
22.7%
Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6TD
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:5578% → 81%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
21.8%
Daijun Edwards run for 11 yds to the FLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
21.9%
Carson Beck run for no gain to the FLA 20Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
18.9%
Daijun Edwards run for 20 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · -14 yds · 0:2019% → 19%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
18.9%
Graham Mertz sacked by Jamon Dumas-Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the FLA 16Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 19
OWN 16
-5
18.8%
Graham Mertz sacked by Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins for a loss of 5 yards to the FLA 11 Graham Mertz fumbled, recovered by UGA Marvin Jones Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8TD
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:5181% → 87%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
19.0%
Kendall Milton run for 2 yds to the FLA 9Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+6
18.9%
Carson Beck run for 6 yds to the FLA 3Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+1
19.0%
Daijun Edwards run for 1 yd to the FLA 2Similar
Q2 10:34
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
13.3%
Daijun Edwards run for 2 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9SF
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:4015% → 13%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.5%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the FLA 25Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
14.4%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-6
14.4%
Graham Mertz sacked by Mykel Williams and Damon Wilson Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the FLA 19Similar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
13.4%
TEAM punt blocked by Joenel Aguero for a SAFETY blocked by Joenel Aguero for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:3790% → 89%
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
10.4%
Kendall Milton run for 16 yds to the UGA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
10.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 7 yds to the UGA 49Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 3
OWN 49
-2
10.4%
Kendall Milton run for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 47Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
10.3%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 5
OWN 47
-5
10.7%
Georgia Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UGA 42Similar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
10.7%
Brett Thorson punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FLA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1213% → 13%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
13.2%
Trevor Etienne run for 2 yds to the FLA 20Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
13.0%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
12.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for no gain to the FLA 20Similar
Q2 5:48
4TH & 8
OWN 20
-2
12.7%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 58 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:2590% → 92%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
9.9%
Daijun Edwards run for 11 yds to the UGA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
9.8%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Ladd McConkeySimilar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
9.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 4 yds to the UGA 35Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+9
9.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 9 yds to the UGA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
8.7%
Daijun Edwards run for 18 yds to the FLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
8.5%
Carson Beck run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 39Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+4
8.5%
Kendall Milton run for 4 yds to the FLA 35Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
7.6%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Dominic LovettSimilar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 7
OPP 35
-5
8.2%
Georgia Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FLA 40Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
8.0%
Brett Thorson punt for 31 yds, downed at the FLA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 41 yds · 0:5011% → 11%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
11.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 12 yds to the FLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+29
11.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 29 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
50
0
12.5%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
50
0
12.4%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Montrell Johnson Jr.Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 10
50
0
12.0%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kahleil JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 10
50
0
11.3%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 49 yds, downed at the UGA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:1493% → 93%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
7.5%
Carson Beck run for 2 yds to the UGA 3Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 8
OWN 3
-1
7.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:0892% → 93%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
8.3%
Daijun Edwards run for 2 yds to the UGA 27Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
8.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 7 yds to the UGA 34Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
8.5%
Carson Beck run for 3 yds to the UGA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
7.7%
Daijun Edwards run for 1 yd to the UGA 38Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+14
7.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 14 yds to the FLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
6.9%
Daijun Edwards run for 3 yds to the FLA 45Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+3
6.8%
Kendall Milton run for 3 yds to the FLA 42Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
6.8%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
7.3%
Brett Thorson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ricky Pearsall at the FLA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:4110% → 10%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+14
9.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 14 yds to the FLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
10.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 21Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-2
9.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 19Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
9.7%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Ricky PearsallSimilar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
9.6%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the UGA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17FG
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:2694% → 96%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+55
6.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 55 yds to the FLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
5.6%
Kendall Milton run for 1 yd to the FLA 16Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+2
5.5%
Daijun Edwards run for 2 yds to the FLA 14Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
5.2%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+32
3.9%
Peyton Woodring 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:484% → 4%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.4%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
4.3%
Trevor Etienne run for 17 yds to the FLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+26
4.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 26 yds to the UGA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
5.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 7 yds to the UGA 25Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 3
OPP 25
-5
4.7%
Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UGA 30Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
4.5%
Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the UGA 30Similar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+5
4.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 5 yds to the UGA 25Similar
Q3 3:10
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+1
3.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 1 yd to the UGA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:3797% → 99%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
2.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 23Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
2.7%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+54
2.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 54 yds to the FLA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
2.2%
Daijun Edwards run for 7 yds to the FLA 16Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 3
OPP 16
-1
2.1%
Daijun Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 17Similar
Q3 0:18
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+17
0.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 17 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:321% → 3%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.8%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 28Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+48
0.8%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 48 yds to the UGA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
0.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for a loss of 4 yards to the UGA 21 lat. to Eugene Wilson III for 7 yds to the UGA 21Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+16
0.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 16 yds to the UGA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
0.5%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the UGA 5Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
2.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 6:1098% → 100%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
1.9%
Kendall Milton run for 11 yds to the UGA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
1.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 2 yds to the UGA 38Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+10
1.5%
Kendall Milton run for 10 yds to the UGA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
1.4%
Kendall Milton run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 8
50
+13
1.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Oscar Delp for 13 yds to the FLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
1.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to C.J. Smith for 15 yds to the FLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
1.2%
Daijun Edwards run for 15 yds to the FLA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
1.1%
Kendall Milton run for 4 yds to the FLA 3Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
1.1%
Kendall Milton run for 2 yds to the FLA 1Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Kendall Milton run for 1 yd for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:300% → 1%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kahleil JacksonSimilar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for no gain to the FLA 25Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+19
0.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 19 yds to the FLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
0.2%
Treyaun Webb run for 7 yds to the UGA 49Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+2
0.2%
Treyaun Webb run for 2 yds to the UGA 47Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+4
0.2%
Treyaun Webb run for 4 yds to the UGA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
0.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Ricky PearsallSimilar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+13
0.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ja'Quavion Fraziars for 13 yds to the UGA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
0.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 2 yds to the UGA 28Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+23
0.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 23 yds to the UGA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
0.1%
Treyaun Webb run for 4 yds to the UGA 1Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.1%
Graham Mertz run for 1 yd for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:41100% → 100%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
0.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 24Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
0.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:34
Daijun Edwards run for 2 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
-5.7
TD · Q2 13:25
Daijun Edwards run for 20 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
-2.9
TD · Q1 1:23
Carson Beck pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 41 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
-2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com