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FLA

Florida 41 at South Carolina 39

SC
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYEnd of GameFG+4.6SC 56.9%Mitch Jeter 27 yd FG GOODAWAY 24 - HOME 24 · Q3 10:26
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:26 · Mitch Jeter 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 114Home team on offense+2.3Garbage-time factor−0.8Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Pregame prior+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 14:55: Spencer Rattler pass complete to Juju McDowell for 3 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — SC win probability +30.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 9:11: Spencer Rattler pass complete to Joshua Simon for 33 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — SC win probability +17.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:40: Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 4 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +27.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 4:40: Timeout South Carolina, clock 04:40 — SC win probability +19.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:47: Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 21 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +61.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 4:08FLA 4th & 3 at SC 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.3%−0.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:39FLA 4th & 6 at SC 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    41.2%−2.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:36SC 4th & 19 at SC 25, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−1.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:31FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 46, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:24SC 4th & 14 at SC 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−2.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:03FLA 4th & 6 at SC 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−8.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:26SC 4th & 9 at FLA 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−10.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:24FLA 4th & 10 at SC 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%
    42% to make
    Punt
    45.7%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:46SC 4th & 6 at SC 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:37FLA 4th & 14 at FLA 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−4.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:32FLA 4th & 10 at SC 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−3.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:11FLA 4th & 11 at SC 49, down 10
    Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.3%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:11FLA 4th & 1 at SC 7, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−2.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−8.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:43SC 4th & 10 at SC 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:43FLA 4th & 10 at FLA 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.4%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:47FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:49SC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:02SC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:13FLA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    52.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:57SC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:55SC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:11SC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    90.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:40FLA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.1%−1.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:47FLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−2.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 4:0748% → 50%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
51.6%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 11 yds to the FLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
51.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 24 yds to the SC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
51.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 9 yds to the SC 22Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 1
OPP 22
0
51.6%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the SC 22Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
51.6%
Graham Mertz run for 2 yds to the SC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
51.6%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the SC 18Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+11
51.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 11 yds to the SC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
51.6%
Trevor Etienne run for 4 yds to the SC 3Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
50.1%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5851% → 54%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
50.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 1 yd to the SC 26Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
50.5%
Mario Anderson run for 1 yd to the SC 25Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
50.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Rattler,Spencer pass incomplete short left to Brown,Ahmarean, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY FLA Pass Interference (Kimber,Jalen) 13 yards from USC25 to USC38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+30
50.8%
Mario Anderson run for 30 yds to the FLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
51.2%
Spencer Rattler run for 8 yds to the FLA 24Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+6
51.2%
Mario Anderson run for 6 yds to the FLA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
51.2%
Mario Anderson run for 12 yds to the FLA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
53.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Trey Knox for 6 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 3:4147% → 49%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
52.6%
Graham Mertz run for 4 yds to the FLA 29Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
52.4%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the FLA 32Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+16
52.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 16 yds to the FLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
51.9%
South Carolina Penalty, Defensive Holding (Bryan Thomas Jr.) to the SC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
51.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Etienne,Trevor rush right for 7 yards gain to the USC30 (Dial,Marcellas), out of bounds PENALTY USC Offside (Thomas Jr.,Bryan) 5 yards from USC37 to USC32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 5
OPP 32
+2
51.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 2 yds to the SC 30Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 3
OPP 30
0
51.5%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the SC 30Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
51.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Montrell Johnson Jr.Similar
Q1 4:08
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+48
51.2%
Trey Smack 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 4TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0650% → 56%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
49.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 45 yds to the FLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
51.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Trey Knox for 8 yds to the FLA 22Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+2
51.6%
Dakereon Joyner run for 2 yds to the FLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
51.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Juju McDowell for 3 yds to the FLA 17Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+17
55.8%
Juju McDowell run for 17 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 3:2345% → 46%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.0%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Eugene Wilson IIISimilar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
55.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 11 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
54.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 11 yds to the FLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
53.6%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kahleil JacksonSimilar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
53.9%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Eugene Wilson IIISimilar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+23
54.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 23 yds to the SC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
53.1%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Montrell Johnson Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
53.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Eugene Wilson IIISimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 30
-10
53.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mertz,Graham rush right for 5 yards gain to the USC25 (Fortune,O'Donnell), out of bounds PENALTY FLA Holding (George Jr.,Damieon) 10 yards from USC30 to USC40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 20
OPP 40
+14
55.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 14 yds to the SC 26Similar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+44
54.1%
Trey Smack 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 2:5955% → 54%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
55.4%
Mario Anderson run for 3 yds to the SC 26Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+8
55.4%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 8 yds to the SC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
55.6%
Mario Anderson run for 1 yd to the SC 35Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+3
55.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Trey Knox for 3 yds to the SC 38Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+13
56.0%
run for 13 yds to the SC 25 fumbled, recovered by SC Spencer RattlerSimilar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 19
OWN 25
0
54.4%
Kai Kroeger punt for 57 yds, fair catch by Ricky Pearsall at the FLA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 2:2342% → 56%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
57.9%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the FLA 21Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+28
58.1%
Trevor Etienne run for 28 yds to the FLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+45
56.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 45 yds to the SC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
54.8%
Trevor Etienne run for 1 yd to the SC 7Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
44.5%
Kahleil Jackson 7 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Trevor Etienne Pass to Hayden Hansen for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q2 8:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
44.5%
Smack,Trey kick attempt good (H: Crawshaw,Jeremy, LS: Underwood,Rocco) PENALTY USC Offside (Smith,DQ) 2 yards from USC03 to USC01. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 8TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1649% → 59%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
49.2%
pass complete to for 41 yds to the FLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
52.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson,Mario rush left for 11 yards gain to the FLA23 (Hill,Jaydon), out of bounds PENALTY USC Holding (Babalade,Tree) 10 yards from FLA34 to FLA44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+8
50.5%
Spencer Rattler run for 8 yds to the FLA 36Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+6
51.1%
Mario Anderson run for 6 yds to the FLA 30Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+10
51.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 10 yds to the FLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
52.0%
Dakereon Joyner run for no gain to the FLA 20Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
58.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Mario Anderson for 20 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:2647% → 48%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.6%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Hayden HansenSimilar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
52.9%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Ricky PearsallSimilar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
53.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Marcus Burke for 14 yds to the FLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
51.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the FLA 44Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+3
50.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 3 yds to the FLA 47Similar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+1
51.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 46Similar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
52.5%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 1:0755% → 54%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
54.6%
Mario Anderson run for 4 yds to the SC 26Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+6
54.8%
Mario Anderson run for 6 yds to the SC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
55.0%
Spencer Rattler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
54.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Mario Anderson for 3 yds to the SC 35Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-7
55.3%
Spencer Rattler sacked by Princely Umanmielen for a loss of 7 yards to the SC 28Similar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 14
OWN 28
0
53.9%
Kai Kroeger punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FLA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 1:2148% → 54%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+26
52.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 26 yds to the SC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
48.5%
Shotgun Mertz,Graham pass incomplete short left to Jackson,Kahleil PENALTY USC Pass Interference (Fortune,O'Donnell) 15 yards from USC29 to USC14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
48.4%
Graham Mertz sacked by T.J. Sanders for a loss of 3 yards to the SC 17Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+3
49.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 3 yds to the SC 14Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 10
OPP 14
-5
51.1%
PENALTY FLA False Start (Hudson II,Lyndell) 5 yards from USC14 to USC19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 15
OPP 19
+9
52.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 9 yds to the SC 10Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+28
46.1%
Trey Smack 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
48.0%
Kneel down by South Carolina at USC27 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 4:3449% → 57%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
49.0%
Mario Anderson run for 6 yds to the SC 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
50.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Trey Knox for 5 yds to the SC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
50.0%
Spencer Rattler pass incomplete to Nyck HarborSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
49.5%
Mario Anderson run for 2 yds to the SC 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+13
49.1%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 13 yds to the FLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
52.5%
PENALTY USC False Start (Legette,Xavier) 5 yards from FLA49 to USC46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+46
49.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 46 yds to the FLA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
53.8%
Mario Anderson run for 2 yds to the FLA 6Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
53.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Trey Knox for 1 yd to the FLA 5Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
52.3%
Spencer Rattler sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the FLA 9Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
56.9%
Mitch Jeter 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14FG
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:0248% → 56%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
51.9%
Eugene Wilson III run for 9 yds to the FLA 34Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+30
49.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 30 yds to the SC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-11
47.9%
Florida Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-11 Yards) to the SC 47Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 21
OPP 47
0
49.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for no gain to the SC 47Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 21
OPP 47
+11
51.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 11 yds to the SC 36Similar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 10
OPP 36
+54
43.8%
Trey Smack 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3846% → 43%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
45.6%
Mario Anderson run for 1 yd to the SC 24Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
45.1%
Spencer Rattler pass incomplete to O'Mega BlakeSimilar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
43.3%
Spencer Rattler run for 10 yds to the SC 34Similar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
44.4%
PENALTY USC False Start (Jones,Trai) 5 yards from USC34 to USC29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+5
42.5%
Kai Kroeger punt for 54 yds , Ricky Pearsall returns for 5 yds to the FLA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0958% → 56%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
42.1%
Eugene Wilson III run for 12 yds to the FLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
40.7%
Trevor Etienne run for 6 yds to the FLA 40Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 4
OWN 40
-10
39.2%
Graham Mertz sacked by Jordan Strachan for a loss of 10 yards to the FLA 30Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 14
OWN 30
0
43.9%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Arlis BoardinghamSimilar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
43.9%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the SC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:4240% → 72%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
40.3%
Spencer Rattler pass incomplete to Ahmarean BrownSimilar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
39.5%
Dakereon Joyner run for 4 yds to the SC 32Similar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+7
39.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Trey Knox for 7 yds to the SC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
42.1%
Mario Anderson run for no gain to the SC 39Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+26
41.5%
Spencer Rattler run for 26 yds to the FLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
46.8%
Mario Anderson run for 13 yds to the FLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
46.8%
Mario Anderson run for 1 yd to the FLA 23Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 11
OPP 23
0
46.7%
Spencer Rattler pass incomplete to O'Mega BlakeSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 23
+20
41.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Trey Knox for 20 yds to the FLA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
72.0%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Juju McDowell for 3 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18MISSED FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:2336% → 31%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
63.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mertz,Graham pass incomplete deep right to Burke,Marcus PENALTY USC Pass Interference (Dial,Marcellas) 15 yards from FLA25 to FLA40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
61.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 20 yds to the SC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
58.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 10 yds to the SC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
56.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the SC 33Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+8
58.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 8 yds to the SC 25Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 5
OPP 25
-5
62.8%
Graham Mertz sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the SC 30Similar
Q4 11:32
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+48
68.9%
Trey Smack 48 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Tyreek JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:2173% → 95%
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
73.1%
Mario Anderson run for 6 yds to the SC 37Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+1
74.8%
Mario Anderson run for 1 yd to the SC 38Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+24
73.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 24 yds to the FLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
76.6%
Spencer Rattler run for 5 yds to the FLA 33Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+33
94.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Joshua Simon for 33 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 4:3110% → 40%
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.5%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Aidan MizellSimilar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
90.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 17 yds to the FLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
89.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 10 yds to the SC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
88.4%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kahleil JacksonSimilar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
88.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 4 yds to the SC 44Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 6
OPP 44
-5
88.7%
PENALTY FLA Illegal Snap (Slaughter,Jake) 5 yards from USC44 to USC49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
89.6%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kahleil JacksonSimilar
Q4 9:11
4TH & 11
OPP 49
+14
90.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 14 yds to the SC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
87.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 19 yds to the SC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
87.0%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Marcus BurkeSimilar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+9
87.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 9 yds to the SC 7Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 1
OPP 7
0
88.3%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Ricky PearsallSimilar
Q4 9:11
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+3
89.1%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the SC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
87.0%
Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the SC 4Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
59.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 4 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 1:5379% → 83%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
79.0%
Mario Anderson run for 5 yds to the SC 32Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+15
79.9%
No Huddle Rattler,Spencer pass incomplete deep right to Brown,Ahmarean broken up by Marshall Jr.,Jason PENALTY FLA Roughing The Passer (Jackson,Cam) 15 yards from USC32 to USC47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
82.5%
Mario Anderson run for 2 yds to the SC 45Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+2
80.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 2 yds to the SC 47Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
76.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Trey Knox for no gain to the SC 47Similar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
83.3%
Kai Kroeger punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FLA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:5624% → 95%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.3%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kahleil JacksonSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
76.7%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Marcus BurkeSimilar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
78.1%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Arlis BoardinghamSimilar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+26
79.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 26 yds to the SC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
70.1%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Ricky PearsallSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+11
71.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 11 yds to the SC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+22
69.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 22 yds to the SC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
65.5%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the SC 21Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 15
OPP 21
+21
4.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 21 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
5.2%
PENALTY USC Roughing The Kicker (Strachan,Jordan) 15 yards from FLA35 to FLA50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 23INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:2712% → 10%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.7%
Spencer Rattler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
11.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Dakereon Joyner for 11 yds to the SC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
9.8%
Spencer Rattler pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24SF
7 plays · -31 yds · 0:1695% → 93%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
5.0%
Kneel down by Florida at FLA29 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 12
OWN 29
-9
5.3%
Kneel down by Florida at FLA20 for loss of 9 yards.Similar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 21
OWN 20
-8
5.8%
Kneel down by Florida at FLA12 for loss of 8 yards.Similar
Q4 0:04
4TH & 29
OWN 12
-12
6.8%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:47
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 21 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
-61.5
TD · Q4 14:55
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Juju McDowell for 3 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
+30.2
TD · Q4 4:40
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 4 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
-27.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com