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VAN

Vanderbilt 14 at Florida 38

FLA
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:41 · Matthew Hayball punt for 44 yds, downed at the FLA 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Pregame prior+19.6Home team on offense+13.4Score differential+4.7Garbage-time factor+2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:51: Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 2 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +2.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:41: Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +5.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:16: Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 9 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +5.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:44: Ken Seals pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 21 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK) — VAN win probability +7.9 pts (now 10%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:19: Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 15 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +1.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5VAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:39VAN 4th & 8 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:26VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:50FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:54VAN 4th & 5 at FLA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%−0.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:36VAN 4th & 4 at FLA 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    15.3%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:44FLA 4th & 21 at FLA 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−1.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:51VAN 4th & 2 at VAN 14, down 7
    Close callPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:35FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:41VAN 4th & 18 at VAN 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:38FLA 4th & 2 at VAN 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    91.4%−1.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    91.1%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:12FLA 4th & 10 at VAN 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    91.1%−3.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:33VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:10VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 30, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5VAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:05FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:15VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:51FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:41FLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:16FLA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:44VAN Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:19FLA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:2010% → 11%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.0%
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the VAN 29Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+19
89.7%
Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 19 yds to the VAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
89.5%
Ken Seals pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 8
50
0
89.2%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 8
50
0
89.2%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 8
50
0
89.3%
Matthew Hayball punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2TD
10 plays · 93 yds · 3:2589% → 90%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
89.3%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+18
89.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 18 yds to the FLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 4 yds to the FLA 29Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
89.0%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 30Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
88.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 9 yds to the FLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
88.8%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 8 yds to the FLA 47Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
88.8%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+34
88.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 34 yds to the VAN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
88.7%
(09:11) MERTZ, Graham pass short to the left incomplete intended for BOARDINGHAM, Arlis thrown to the VAN15, clock 09:10. PENALTY VAN Offsides on ZUNK, Linus enforced 5 yards from the VAN19 to the VAN14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 5
OPP 14
+14
89.5%
Ricky Pearsall run for 14 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3PUNT
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:3511% → 11%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
89.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the VAN 6Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 6
OWN 12
0
89.1%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 6
OWN 12
0
89.1%
Matthew Hayball punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
89.2%
Kahleil Jackson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5TD
2 plays · 89 yds · 0:2711% → 13%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
88.8%
Ken Seals run for 4 yds to the VAN 15Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+85
87.3%
Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 85 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 3:1587% → 86%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
87.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 9 yds to the FLA 32Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+8
87.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 8 yds to the FLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
87.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 8 yds to the FLA 48Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 2
OWN 48
-2
87.2%
Graham Mertz sacked by Devin Lee and Nate Clifton for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 46Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+1
86.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 1 yd to the FLA 47Similar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
86.2%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7DOWNS
11 plays · 41 yds · 2:4914% → 16%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
85.9%
Patrick Smith run for 3 yds to the VAN 23Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
85.5%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+15
85.7%
(01:58) SEALS, Ken pass up the middle incomplete intended for SHEPPARD, Will thrown to the VAN35, clock 01:48. PENALTY UFL Roughing the Passer on BANKS, Caleb enforced 15 yards from the VAN23 to the VAN38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
85.0%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd to the VAN 39Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
84.7%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+9
84.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 9 yds to the VAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
84.2%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
84.3%
Sedrick Alexander run for 9 yds to the FLA 43Similar
Q2 14:58
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
83.9%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 5
OPP 43
+8
84.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 8 yds fumbled, recovered by FLA Jalen KimberSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 3:5386% → 88%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
85.8%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds to the FLA 48Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+2
86.0%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
50
+4
85.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the VAN 46Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+28
85.6%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 28 yds to the VAN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
85.8%
Treyaun Webb run for 8 yds to the VAN 10Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+8
85.6%
Treyaun Webb run for 8 yds to the VAN 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 2 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:1413% → 14%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.2%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
87.2%
Jayden McGowan run for 16 yds to the VAN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+52
86.7%
Ken Seals pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 52 yds to the FLA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
85.6%
Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 3 yds to the FLA 4Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
85.3%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
85.9%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
86.5%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:5087% → 86%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+11
87.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 11 yds to the FLA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
87.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 16Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+7
87.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 7 yds to the FLA 23Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+19
87.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 19 yds to the FLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-15
88.0%
Florida Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the FLA 27Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 25
OWN 27
+2
87.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Andy Jean for 2 yds to the FLA 29Similar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 25
OWN 27
0
87.1%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 23
OWN 29
+2
86.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Treyaun Webb for 2 yds to the FLA 31Similar
Q2 4:44
4TH & 21
OWN 31
0
86.1%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 63 yds, downed at the VAN 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3713% → 13%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
87.0%
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the VAN 8Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+3
87.0%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the VAN 11Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+3
87.0%
Ken Seals pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 3 yds to the VAN 14Similar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 2
OWN 14
0
87.1%
Matthew Hayball punt for 60 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 2:0086% → 92%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
86.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 30Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+5
86.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 5 yds to the FLA 35Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+19
85.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 19 yds to the VAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
87.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 9 yds to the VAN 37Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+15
87.1%
(01:12) MERTZ, Graham pass to the right incomplete intended for PEARSALL, Ricky thrown to the VAN30, clock 01:10. PENALTY VAN Personal Foul on BARR, Ethan enforced 15 yards from the VAN37 to the VAN22 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
87.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 5 yds to the VAN 17Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+3
87.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the VAN 14Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+15
86.2%
(00:55) MERTZ, Graham pass to the left incomplete intended for JACKSON, Kahleil thrown to the VAN0, clock 00:53. PENALTY VAN Roughing the Passer on CLIFTON, Nate enforced 15 yards from the VAN00 to the UFL15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
86.7%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
91.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:359% → 10%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.1%
Ken Seals run for 3 yds to the VAN 28Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
90.8%
Ken Seals pass complete to Patrick Smith for 15 yds to the VAN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
90.3%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
90.4%
Ken Seals run for 6 yds to the VAN 49Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 4
OWN 49
-2
90.2%
Ken Seals sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the VAN 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:2492% → 91%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
91.6%
Graham Mertz sacked by Aeneas DiCosmo for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 24Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
91.6%
Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FLA 19Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+3
91.6%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 22Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+5
91.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the FLA 27Similar
Q3 12:35
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
91.0%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:439% → 8%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
90.8%
Jayden McGowan run for 9 yds to the VAN 40Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+15
90.4%
(11:35) SEALS, Ken pass short up the middle incomplete intended for BALL, Justin thrown to the VAN45, clock 11:30. PENALTY UFL Pass Interference on MOTEN, R.J. enforced 15 yards to the UFL45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
90.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 47Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 12
OPP 47
0
90.6%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 12
OPP 47
-1
90.9%
Ken Seals run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 48Similar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 13
OPP 48
-5
91.6%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Delay Of Game (Aeneas DiCosmo) to the VAN 47Similar
Q3 9:41
4TH & 18
OWN 47
0
91.7%
Matthew Hayball punt for 44 yds, downed at the FLA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16TD
15 plays · 91 yds · 6:2192% → 98%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+23
92.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 23 yds to the FLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
92.5%
Ricky Pearsall run for 9 yds to the FLA 41Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+3
93.0%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
93.1%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+12
93.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 12 yds to the VAN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
93.5%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
93.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 5 yds to the VAN 39Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+3
93.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 3 yds to the VAN 36Similar
Q3 5:38
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+7
92.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 7 yds to the VAN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
93.7%
Florida Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Graham Mertz) to the VAN 41Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 22
OPP 41
+7
93.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 7 yds to the VAN 34Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 15
OPP 34
+20
92.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 20 yds to the VAN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
93.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the VAN 9Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
98.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 9 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:302% → 10%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
97.7%
Ken Seals pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 12 yds to the VAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
97.6%
Ken Seals pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 5 yds to the VAN 42Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+10
97.9%
Sedrick Alexander run for 10 yds to the FLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+27
98.0%
Ken Seals pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 27 yds to the FLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
97.8%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
89.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 21 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 3:2395% → 97%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
94.8%
Treyaun Webb run for 11 yds to the FLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+43
95.0%
Treyaun Webb run for 43 yds to the VAN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
95.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Treyaun Webb for 2 yds to the VAN 20Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+2
95.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Treyaun Webb for 2 yds to the VAN 18Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 6
OPP 18
-10
95.6%
Florida Penalty, Illegal Block (Arlis Boardingham) to the VAN 28Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 16
OPP 28
-5
95.5%
Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VAN 33Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 21
OPP 33
+11
95.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 11 yds to the VAN 22Similar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+40
97.1%
Trey Smack 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:384% → 3%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Logan Kyle for 8 yds to the VAN 33Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
96.0%
Ken Seals pass complete to Kamrean Johnson for 6 yds to the VAN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
96.3%
Ken Seals pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 1 yd to the VAN 40Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+5
96.5%
Patrick Smith run for 5 yds to the VAN 45Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
96.5%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:33
4TH & 4
OWN 45
-9
96.6%
Ken Seals sacked by Derek Wingo for a loss of 9 yards to the VAN 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20TD
4 plays · 36 yds · 2:0398% → 100%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
97.6%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds to the VAN 27Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+15
97.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 15 yds to the VAN 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
97.8%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the VAN 15Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+15
99.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 15 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:091% → 1%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.2%
Ken Seals run for 3 yds to the VAN 28Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
99.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Kamrean Johnson for 5 yds to the VAN 33Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-3
99.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the VAN 30Similar
Q4 5:10
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.3%
Matthew Hayball punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22END OF GAME
9 plays · 38 yds · 4:08100% → 100%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
99.6%
Max Brown pass complete to Ja'Quavion Fraziars for 13 yds to the FLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
99.6%
Max Brown pass complete to Marcus Burke for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 45Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+5
99.6%
Max Brown pass complete to Marcus Burke for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 7
50
+15
99.7%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Bradley Mann) to the VAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.8%
Eddie Battle run for no gain to the VAN 35Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
99.8%
Eddie Battle run for 2 yds to the VAN 33Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 8
OPP 33
-5
99.8%
Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VAN 38Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+10
99.8%
Max Brown pass complete to Taylor Spierto for 10 yds to the VAN 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:44
Ken Seals pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 21 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)
-7.9
TD · Q3 3:16
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 9 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
+5.3
TD · Q2 0:41
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
+5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com