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FLA

Florida 14 at Kentucky 33

UK
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:39 · Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 4 yds to the FLA 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:22: Ray Davis run for 75 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor PAT BLOCKED) — UK win probability +8.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:54: Ray Davis run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — UK win probability +8.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:34: Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 4 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +12.6 pts (now 26%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:54: Ray Davis run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — UK win probability +8.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:17: Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 33 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK) — FLA win probability +13.0 pts (now 20%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FLA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 12:15FLA 4th & 13 at FLA 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:13UK 4th & 7 at FLA 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:57FLA 4th & 14 at UK 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:50FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 39, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:01FLA 4th & 7 at FLA 40, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:49UK 4th & 9 at UK 35, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:08FLA 4th & 3 at UK 43, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%−1.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:49UK 4th & 9 at UK 38, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:41FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 24, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:10UK 4th & 4 at UK 31, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:24FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 44, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.8%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:44UK 4th & 9 at FLA 32, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    95.2%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:03FLA 4th & 2 at UK 42, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:37UK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:22UK Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:54UK Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:34FLA Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:54UK Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:17FLA Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 2:3948% → 48%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
51.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 26Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-6
51.8%
Graham Mertz sacked by D'Eryk Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the FLA 20Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-3
52.0%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the FLA 27 Florida Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FLA 17Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+5
52.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the FLA 22Similar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+4
52.3%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 60 yds , Barion Brown returns for 4 yds to the UK 26 Kentucky Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the UK 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2FG
12 plays · 81 yds · 4:4552% → 54%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
52.2%
Ray Davis run for 10 yds to the UK 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+19
52.3%
Ray Davis run for 19 yds to the UK 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
52.6%
Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the UK 45Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+6
53.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 6 yds to the FLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
53.2%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Tayvion RobinsonSimilar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
53.1%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the FLA 44Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+9
53.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 9 yds to the FLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+29
53.5%
Ray Davis run for 22 yds to the FLA 13 for a 1ST down Florida Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (7 Yards) to the FLA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
53.7%
JuTahn McClain run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 7Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
53.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Ray DavisSimilar
Q1 7:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
53.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Barion BrownSimilar
Q1 7:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
53.9%
Alex Raynor 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4946% → 46%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.9%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Caleb DouglasSimilar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.0%
Trevor Etienne run for 5 yds to the FLA 30Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-21
54.2%
Graham Mertz pass intercepted Trevin Wallace return for 21 yds to the FLA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4TD
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:2955% → 58%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
55.0%
Ray Davis run for 6 yds to the FLA 9Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+9
58.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 9 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 4:3444% → 40%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.4%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kahleil JacksonSimilar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.6%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the FLA 29Similar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+13
57.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 13 yds to the FLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
56.5%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 45Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
57.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 6 yds to the UK 49Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+6
57.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the UK 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-8
57.7%
Graham Mertz sacked by Deone Walker for a loss of 8 yards to the FLA 49Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 18
OWN 49
0
58.7%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Andy JeanSimilar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 18
OWN 49
+4
59.5%
Graham Mertz run for 4 yds to the UK 47Similar
Q1 0:57
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
60.1%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the UK 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6TD
5 plays · 90 yds · 0:3060% → 67%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
59.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Jordan DingleSimilar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
59.6%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Jordan DingleSimilar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
59.2%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Barion BrownSimilar
Q1 0:33
4TH & 10
OWN 10
+15
58.8%
Florida Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UK 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
67.0%
Ray Davis run for 75 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:2237% → 35%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
63.4%
Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 24Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
63.5%
Mertz, Graham pass incomplete to Boardingham, Arlis, PENALTY KENTUCKY holding 10 yards to the FLORIDA34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
63.4%
Trevor Etienne run for 2 yds to the FLA 36Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+5
63.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 5 yds to the FLA 41Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 3
OWN 41
-2
64.1%
Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 39Similar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
65.3%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:4270% → 84%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
70.1%
Ray Davis run for 16 yds to the UK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+33
70.8%
Ray Davis run for 33 yds to the FLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
72.0%
Ramon Jefferson run for 4 yds to the FLA 27Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+14
73.3%
Barion Brown run for 14 yds to the FLA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
73.7%
Ramon Jefferson run for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 16Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 13
OPP 16
+13
75.6%
Ray Davis run for 13 yds to the FLA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
84.2%
Ray Davis run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 15 yds · 3:3317% → 14%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for no gain to the FLA 25Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jonathan Odom for 3 yds to the FLA 28Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
83.6%
Florida Penalty, False Start (Arlis Boardingham) to the FLA 23Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+14
84.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 14 yds to the FLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
83.7%
Mertz, Graham pass incomplete to Pearsall, Ricky, PENALTY FLORIDA personal foul (Eguakun, Kingsley) 15 yards to the FLORIDA22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 25
OWN 22
0
84.4%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Hayden HansenSimilar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 25
OWN 22
+9
84.9%
Graham Mertz run for 9 yds to the FLA 31Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+9
85.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 9 yds to the FLA 40Similar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
85.7%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:5588% → 89%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
88.2%
JuTahn McClain run for 2 yds to the UK 22Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+12
88.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 12 yds to the UK 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
89.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Barion BrownSimilar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+1
89.3%
JuTahn McClain run for 1 yd to the UK 35Similar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
89.3%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Anthony Brown-StephensSimilar
Q2 2:49
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
88.5%
Wilson Berry punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ricky Pearsall at the FLA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0012% → 26%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
87.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 20 yds to the FLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
87.3%
Trevor Etienne run for 16 yds to the UK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
87.0%
Trevor Etienne run for 4 yds to the UK 35Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+34
86.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 34 yds to the UK 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
86.6%
Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 3 yards to the UK 4Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
74.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 4 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
80.6%
Ray Davis run for no gain to the UK 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:3781% → 93%
Q3 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
81.1%
Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the UK 35Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+11
81.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 11 yds to the UK 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+31
82.1%
Ray Davis run for 31 yds to the FLA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
82.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 10 yds to the FLA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
83.4%
Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the FLA 10Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+4
83.9%
Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the FLA 6Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+4
84.6%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Barion Brown for a 1ST down Florida Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jason Marshall Jr.) to the FLA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
93.4%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:217% → 20%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
92.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Andy Jean for 11 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
92.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
50
+6
92.8%
Graham Mertz run for 6 yds to the UK 44Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-1
92.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 45Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+2
94.0%
Graham Mertz run for 2 yds to the UK 43Similar
Q3 8:08
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+10
94.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 10 yds to the UK 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
80.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 33 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:1588% → 90%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
88.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 12 yds to the UK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
89.7%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the UK 39Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-5
90.0%
Kentucky Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UK 34Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+4
89.4%
Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the UK 38Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
90.5%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Dane KeySimilar
Q3 4:49
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+5
89.5%
Wilson Berry punt for 47 yds , Trevor Etienne returns for 5 yds to the FLA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5313% → 11%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
87.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Andy Jean for 6 yds to the FLA 26Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
85.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 28Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
87.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FLA 29Similar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-5
87.6%
Florida Penalty, False Start (Micah Mazzccua) to the FLA 24Similar
Q3 2:41
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
89.0%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the UK 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0991% → 92%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.3%
Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the UK 29Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
91.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 2 yds to the UK 31Similar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
91.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Josh KattusSimilar
Q3 1:10
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
91.5%
Wilson Berry punt for 56 yds, downed at the FLA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 34 yds · 4:3310% → 8%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
89.7%
Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 12Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+10
90.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Andy Jean for 10 yds to the FLA 22Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+4
89.4%
Graham Mertz run for 4 yds to the FLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
90.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Andy Jean for 6 yds to the FLA 32Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+6
89.9%
Trevor Etienne run for 6 yds to the FLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-13
90.0%
Graham Mertz sacked by J.J. Weaver for a loss of 13 yards to the FLA 25Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 23
OWN 25
+14
91.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 14 yds Trevor Etienne fumbled, recovered by FLASimilar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+5
91.2%
Trevor Etienne run for 5 yds to the FLA 44Similar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+3
91.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 3 yds to the FLA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19FG
6 plays · 15 yds · 3:1197% → 99%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
97.4%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the FLA 42Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+9
97.4%
Ray Davis run for 9 yds to the FLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
97.6%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the FLA 31Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+1
97.7%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the FLA 30Similar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-2
97.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 32Similar
Q4 7:44
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+50
99.0%
Alex Raynor 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 31 yds · 3:414% → 3%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.3%
Florida Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the FLA 20Similar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
96.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 8 yds to the FLA 28Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
96.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 9 yds to the FLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
96.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 36Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+14
96.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
50
+4
97.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 4 yds to the UK 46Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
97.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for no gain to the UK 46Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 6
OPP 46
-5
97.4%
Florida Penalty, False Start (Austin Barber) to the FLA 49Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+9
97.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 9 yds to the UK 42Similar
Q4 4:03
4TH & 2
OPP 42
-2
97.4%
Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21END OF GAME
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:59100% → 100%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
99.5%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the FLA 46 for a 1ST down Florida Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (T.J. Searcy) to the FLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
99.6%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the FLA 37Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+28
99.6%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 28 yds to the FLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
99.6%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 1 yd to the FLA 8Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
99.6%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 9Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.7%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 4 yds to the FLA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:17
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 33 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
-13
TD · Q2 0:34
Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 4 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
-12.6
TD · Q3 10:54
Ray Davis run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
+8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com