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NMSU

New Mexico State 17 at Hawai'i 20

HAW
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
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Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:06 · Matthew Shipley 51 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Home team on offense−14.1Pregame prior+3.2Score differential−6.7Garbage-time factor−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:38: Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 21 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +9.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:22: Brayden Schager run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +11.7 pts (now 46%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:19: Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +25.9 pts (now 62%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:19: Monte Watkins run for 11 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST down — NMSU win probability +11.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Matthew Shipley 24 yd FG GOOD — HAW win probability +34.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 7 of 8NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 13:57NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:50HAW 4th & 8 at HAW 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:21HAW 4th & 1 at HAW 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:06NMSU 4th & 3 at HAW 18, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.7%−0.4
    79% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−3.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:26HAW 4th & 7 at HAW 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:27HAW 4th & 7 at NMSU 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:06HAW 4th & 10 at NMSU 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:23HAW 4th & 14 at HAW 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−3.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:00NMSU 4th & 7 at HAW 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−8.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:55NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−3.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:53HAW 4th & 1 at NMSU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    29.9%−4.4
    79% to make
    Punt
    17.1%−17.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:00NMSU 4th & 9 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:00HAW 4th & 7 at NMSU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−7.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−35.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:17NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:38NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:22HAW Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:19HAW Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0344% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.5%
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the NMSU 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
56.5%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
56.5%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:57
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
56.6%
Zach Haynes punt for 46 yds, downed at the HAW 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:0757% → 57%
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
56.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 9 yds to the HAW 33Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+5
56.7%
Landon Sims run for 5 yds to the HAW 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
56.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jalen Walthall for 4 yds to the HAW 42Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+2
56.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 2 yds to the HAW 44Similar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+1
56.7%
Brayden Schager run for 1 yd to the HAW 45Similar
Q1 13:57
4TH & 3
OWN 45
-5
56.6%
Hawai'i Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the HAW 40Similar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
56.6%
Matthew Shipley punt for 28 yds, downed at the NMSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 3:3343% → 47%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
56.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 4 yds to the NMSU 36Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+2
56.5%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMSU 38Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+12
56.5%
Diego Pavia run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
50
+8
56.2%
Diego Pavia run for 8 yds to the HAW 42Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+3
56.2%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the HAW 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
53.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Monte Watkins for 39 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5054% → 53%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
54.1%
Brayden Schager run for 6 yds to the HAW 26Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+1
54.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the HAW 27Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
54.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jalen Walthall for 2 yds to the HAW 29Similar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
53.3%
Matthew Shipley punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5FG
15 plays · 52 yds · 8:1547% → 53%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
53.1%
Jonathan Brady run for 7 yds to the NMSU 37Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+4
51.8%
Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the NMSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
51.5%
Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the NMSU 43Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+9
51.6%
Diego Pavia run for 9 yds to the HAW 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
51.3%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the HAW 45Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
51.3%
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the HAW 39Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+3
51.3%
Eli Stowers run for 3 yds to the HAW 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
51.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
49.1%
Jamoni Jones run for 9 yds to the HAW 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
49.1%
Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the HAW 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
48.8%
Monte Watkins run for 5 yds to the HAW 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+1
48.8%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the HAW 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+1
49.1%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the HAW 18Similar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
46.8%
Ethan Albertson 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:4046% → 45%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
46.2%
Landon Sims run for 8 yds to the HAW 33Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
46.9%
Landon Sims run for 5 yds to the HAW 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
47.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the HAW 42Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
47.4%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-1
46.8%
Brayden Schager sacked by Jordan Vincent for a loss of 1 yard to the HAW 41Similar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
44.7%
Matthew Shipley punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · 60 yds · 1:4754% → 60%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
45.6%
Star Thomas run for 15 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+44
44.7%
Diego Pavia run for 44 yds to the HAW 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
40.5%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the NMSU 40 Star Thomas fumbled, recovered by HAW Daniel WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 8FG
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:1245% → 46%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
45.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 19 yds to the NMSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
46.1%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMSU 24Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 13
OPP 24
+6
45.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 6 yds to the NMSU 18Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
45.1%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+35
46.4%
Matthew Shipley 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:3956% → 72%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
44.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 15 yds to the NMSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
43.0%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
43.5%
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the NMSU 42Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+17
44.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 17 yds Star Thomas fumbled, recovered by NMSU Shiyazh Pete for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+20
42.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 20 yds to the HAW 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-6
42.0%
Diego Pavia sacked by Wynden Ho'ohuli for a loss of 6 yards to the HAW 27Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 16
OPP 27
+6
37.6%
Eli Stowers run for 6 yds to the HAW 21Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+21
28.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 21 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10MISSED FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 1:3232% → 29%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the HAW 30Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
32.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jalen Walthall for 9 yds to the HAW 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
33.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the HAW 42Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-5
26.8%
Hawai'i Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the HAW 37Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+9
25.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 9 yds to the HAW 46Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+15
26.1%
New Mexico State Penalty, Personal Foul (Myles Rowser) to the NMSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
28.1%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
28.0%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
27.1%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+51
29.1%
Matthew Shipley 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
26.7%
[NHSG] Kneel down by NMS at NMS33 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:3831% → 46%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
30.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jalen Walthall for 7 yds to the HAW 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+12
31.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 12 yds to the HAW 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
32.9%
Brayden Schager run for no gain to the HAW 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
32.6%
Brayden Schager run for 1 yd to the HAW 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 45
-5
32.0%
Hawai'i Penalty, False Start (Pofele Ashlock) to the HAW 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 40
+15
30.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 15 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+29
33.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 29 yds to the NMSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
33.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 12 yds to the NMSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
45.7%
Brayden Schager run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:5643% → 37%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
42.8%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-9
41.6%
Brayden Schager sacked by Izaiah Reed for a loss of 9 yards to the HAW 37Similar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 19
OWN 37
+5
38.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jalen Walthall for 5 yds to the HAW 42Similar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 14
OWN 42
0
37.4%
Matthew Shipley punt for 29 yds, downed at the NMSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14MISSED FG
5 plays · 45 yds · 2:2363% → 66%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+42
36.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jordin Parker for 42 yds to the HAW 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
33.7%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the HAW 27Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+1
33.7%
Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the HAW 26Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
34.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+43
34.3%
Ethan Albertson 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 15FUMBLE
11 plays · 65 yds · 5:3339% → 38%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
38.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 2 yds to the HAW 28Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+14
38.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 14 yds to the HAW 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
40.8%
David Cordero run for 3 yds to the HAW 45Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
41.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for no gain to the HAW 45Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 2
50
+4
41.8%
Brayden Schager run for 4 yds to the NMSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
42.7%
Landon Sims run for 10 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
42.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Landon Sims for 9 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+21
44.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 21 yds to the NMSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
44.4%
Brayden Schager sacked by Sone Aupiu for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 8Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
44.4%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
37.7%
Brayden Schager run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 9 Brayden Schager fumbled, recovered by NMSU Keyshaun ElliottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0569% → 69%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
30.8%
Makhilyn Young run for no gain to the NMSU 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 9
-2
31.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 7Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 7
0
32.2%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:55
4TH & 12
OWN 7
0
30.6%
Zach Haynes punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17TD
13 plays · 43 yds · 6:3637% → 62%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
36.8%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-1
36.2%
Brayden Schager run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 44Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+17
33.6%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 17 yds to the NMSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
38.8%
Hawai'i Penalty, Offensive Holding (Luke Felix-Fualalo) to the NMSU 37Similar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 20
OPP 37
-9
34.7%
Brayden Schager run for a loss of 9 yards to the NMSU 23 Brayden Schager fumbled, recovered by HAW Josh AtkinsSimilar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
36.4%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+5
34.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jalen Walthall for 5 yds to the NMSU 18Similar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+2
32.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the NMSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
36.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 12 yds to the NMSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
36.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the NMSU 3Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
36.3%
Landon Sims run for no gain to the NMSU 3Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
62.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 4:1949% → 50%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
50.8%
Monte Watkins run for 11 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
48.5%
Star Thomas run for 7 yds to the NMSU 43Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+6
45.9%
Star Thomas run for 6 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
45.0%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the HAW 49Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-10
44.9%
New Mexico State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NMSU 41Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 18
OWN 41
-1
49.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 40Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 19
OWN 40
+10
51.5%
Diego Pavia run for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:00
4TH & 9
50
0
49.8%
Zach Haynes punt for 22 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 19FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 3:0058% → 95%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
57.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 13 yds to the HAW 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
61.2%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+22
59.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Pofele Ashlock for 22 yds to the NMSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
63.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Landon Sims for 1 yd to the NMSU 36Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
63.8%
Brayden Schager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+12
62.4%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Steven McBride for 12 yds to the NMSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
66.2%
New Mexico State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (J.J. Dervil) to the NMSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
66.2%
Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 10Similar
Q4 0:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
68.9%
Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 5 yds to the NMSU 5Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
65.9%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 7Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
94.9%
Matthew Shipley 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Matthew Shipley 24 yd FG GOOD
+34.5
TD · Q4 7:19
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
+25.9
TD · Q3 10:22
Brayden Schager run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
+11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com