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CLT

Charlotte 7 at Florida 22

FLA
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreCLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:20 · Grant Gonya punt for 49 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Pregame prior+42.5Home team on offense+2.3Score differential+0.8Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 8:21: Trey Smack 54 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +0.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:30: Jalon Jones run for 7 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK) — CLT win probability +2.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 13:52: Shadrick Byrd run for a loss of 10 yards to the FLA 42 — CLT win probability +2.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 7:27: Trey Smack 36 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +1.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:28: Trey Smack 23 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +1.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 8CLT made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:05CLT 4th & 3 at CLT 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:49CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:12FLA 4th & 1 at CLT 8, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.8%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    93.2%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:20CLT 4th & 3 at CLT 47, down 10
    Close callPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:50FLA 4th & 3 at CLT 5, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.8%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    91.2%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:18CLT 4th & 23 at CLT 12, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:21FLA 4th & 13 at CLT 36, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.5%
    42% to make
    Punt
    94.3%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:07FLA 4th & 11 at FLA 34, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:39CLT 4th & 15 at FLA 37, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.3%
    40% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:27FLA 4th & 3 at CLT 17, up 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%−0.3
    80% to make
    Punt
    86.5%−4.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:12CLT 4th & 11 at CLT 35, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:16FLA 4th & 5 at CLT 41, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    93.0%−0.9
    32% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:46CLT 4th & 15 at FLA 41, down 12
    Close callPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    5.6%
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:38FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 44, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:18CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 10, down 12
    Close callPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:28FLA 4th & 1 at CLT 6, up 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    69% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.6%−1.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    93.2%−3.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:59CLT 4th & 10 at FLA 35, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CLT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:26FLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:30CLT Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CLTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:513% → 3%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.4%
Jalon Jones run for no gain to the CLT 25 Jalon Jones fumbled, recovered by CLTSimilar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.3%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Jake Clemons for 3 yds to the CLT 28Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
97.2%
Jalon Jones run for 4 yds to the CLT 32Similar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
97.1%
Grant Gonya punt for 58 yds , Ricky Pearsall returns for no gain to the FLA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2TD
10 plays · 95 yds · 4:2697% → 97%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+11
97.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 11 yds to the FLA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+27
97.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 27 yds to the FLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
97.0%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 42Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+13
96.8%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 13 yds to the CLT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
96.8%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the CLT 41Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+7
96.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 7 yds to the CLT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
96.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 18 yds to the CLT 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
96.6%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the CLT 12Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
96.5%
(08:35) MERTZ, Graham pass to the right incomplete intended for DOUGLAS, Caleb thrown to the CHA0, clock 08:30. PENALTY CHA Holding on BALFOUR, Dontae enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the CHA12 to the CHA6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 6 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:363% → 3%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.7%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.7%
Shadrick Byrd run for 1 yd to the CLT 26Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
96.6%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
96.7%
Grant Gonya punt for 60 yds , Ricky Pearsall returns for no gain to the FLA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4FG
8 plays · 67 yds · 3:2597% → 96%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
96.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 21 yds to the FLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+25
96.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 25 yds to the CLT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
96.6%
Graham Mertz run for 12 yds to the CLT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
96.5%
Trevor Etienne run for 4 yds to the CLT 13Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+5
96.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 5 yds to the CLT 8Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
96.4%
Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the CLT 8Similar
Q1 4:12
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+27
96.2%
Trey Smack 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:504% → 4%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.0%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.0%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Malik Baker II for 2 yds to the CLT 27Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
96.1%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Colin Weber for 13 yds to the CLT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
95.9%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 7 yds to the CLT 47Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
95.7%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:33
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
95.7%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
95.8%
Grant Gonya punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6FG
12 plays · 91 yds · 4:2696% → 96%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
95.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 6Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+22
95.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 22 yds to the FLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
95.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the FLA 28Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+15
95.6%
Charlotte Penalty, Roughing the Passer on HANDY, Stone enforced (15 Yards) to the CLT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
95.7%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+32
95.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Andy Jean for 32 yds to the CLT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
95.7%
Graham Mertz run for 1 yd to the CLT 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+2
95.7%
Treyaun Webb run for 2 yds to the CLT 9Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+4
95.6%
Graham Mertz run for 4 yds to the CLT 5Similar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+23
96.3%
Trey Smack 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 1:574% → 4%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
96.0%
Trexler Ivey sacked by Bryce Thornton and Caleb Banks for a loss of 13 yards to the CLT 12Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 23
OWN 12
0
96.1%
Shadrick Byrd run for no gain to the CLT 12Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 23
OWN 12
0
96.1%
Trexler Ivey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:18
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
96.1%
Grant Gonya punt for 42 ydsSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
96.3%
MERTZ, Graham pass up the middle complete for 3 yards to PEARSALL, Ricky caught at the CHA37 and advanced to the CHA30 (FONTAINE, Austin), clock 11:10. PENALTY Before the snap, UF Illegal Formation on HUDSON II, Lyndell enforced 5 yards from the CHA33 to the CHA38. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 15
OPP 38
-10
96.2%
(10:48) ETIENNE, Trevor rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the CHA30 (KNIGHT II, Demetrius), clock 10:42. PENALTY UF Holding on HARRIS, Knijeah enforced 10 yards from the CHA38 to the CHA48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8FG
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:1096% → 97%
Q2 10:31
1ST & 25
OPP 48
+7
96.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 7 yds to the CLT 41Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 18
OPP 41
+13
96.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ja'Quavion Fraziars for 13 yds to the CLT 28Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 5
OPP 28
-8
96.0%
Graham Mertz sacked by Demetrius Knight II for a loss of 8 yards to the CLT 36Similar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 13
OPP 36
+54
97.4%
Trey Smack 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:474% → 7%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.2%
Jalon Jones run for 4 yds to the CLT 29Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
95.9%
Jalon Jones run for 9 yds to the CLT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
95.9%
Henry Rutledge run for 20 yds to the FLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
95.5%
Jalon Jones run for no gain to the FLA 42Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+34
95.6%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Colin Weber for 34 yds to the FLA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
95.2%
Charlotte Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FLA 13Similar
Q2 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+1
95.2%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Jake Clemons for 1 yd to the FLA 12Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+5
95.1%
Jalon Jones run for 5 yds to the FLA 7Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
93.5%
Jalon Jones run for 7 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5795% → 94%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
94.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the FLA 31Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+3
94.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 3 yds to the FLA 34Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
94.3%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
94.1%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Henry Rutledge at the CLT 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:476% → 7%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
94.0%
Jalon Jones run for 2 yds to the CLT 21Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+30
93.8%
Jalon Jones run for 30 yds to the FLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-7
92.9%
Jalon Jones sacked by Shemar James for a loss of 7 yards to the CLT 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:4893% → 94%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
93.2%
Graham Mertz run for 5 yds to the FLA 32Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+10
93.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 10 yds to the FLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
93.6%
Graham Mertz sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the FLA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13MISSED FG
4 plays · -5 yds · 2:139% → 7%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
91.4%
Shadrick Byrd run for a loss of 10 yards to the FLA 42Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 20
OPP 42
+5
92.0%
Jalon Jones run for 5 yds to the FLA 37Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 15
OPP 37
0
92.6%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Bryce Kennon for no gain to the FLA 37Similar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 15
OPP 37
+55
92.9%
Kyle Cunanan 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 4:0793% → 94%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
93.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 16 yds to the CLT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
93.5%
Trevor Etienne run for 13 yds to the CLT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
93.5%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the CLT 31Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+6
93.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 6 yds to the CLT 25Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+1
93.1%
run for 1 yd to the CLT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
93.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 7 yds to the CLT 17Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 3
OPP 17
0
93.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the CLT 17Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 3
OPP 17
0
92.9%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:27
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+36
94.2%
Trey Smack 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 3:116% → 6%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.3%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Colin Weber for 1 yd to the CLT 26Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
94.2%
Shadrick Byrd run for 4 yds to the CLT 30Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
93.8%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Colin Weber for 6 yds to the CLT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
93.6%
Henry Rutledge run for 9 yds to the CLT 45Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 1
OWN 45
-5
93.1%
Charlotte Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Eyabi Okie-Anoma) to the CLT 40Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
93.4%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-5
93.5%
(04:27) JONES, Jalon pass deep to the right complete for 52 yards to HESTERA, Jack caught at the UF15 and advanced to the UF8 (MOTEN, R.J.), clock 04:23. PENALTY CHA Illegal Forward Pass on JONES, Jalon enforced 5 yards from the CHA40 to the CHA35, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:12
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
94.2%
punt blocked by Derek Wingo blocked by Derek WingoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:4795% → 94%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
94.5%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds to the FLA 26Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+3
94.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+25
94.6%
Andy Jean run for 25 yds to the CLT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
95.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ja'Quavion Fraziars for 5 yds to the CLT 41Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+3
95.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the CLT 38Similar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 2
OPP 38
-3
94.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the CLT 41Similar
Q3 0:16
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+3
94.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 3 yds Caleb Douglas fumbled, recovered by CLT DeAndre HollinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17PUNT
12 plays · 21 yds · 5:277% → 5%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
92.7%
Henry Rutledge run for 1 yd to the CLT 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+2
92.9%
Jalon Jones run for 2 yds to the CLT 41Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+6
93.1%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Shadrick Byrd for 6 yds to the CLT 47Similar
Q4 13:54
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+5
93.3%
Florida Penalty, Offsides (Tyreak Sapp) to the FLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-7
91.8%
Jalon Jones sacked by Princely Umanmielen for a loss of 7 yards to the CLT 45Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 17
OWN 45
+19
93.5%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Jake Clemons for 19 yds to the FLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
91.6%
Jalon Jones run for 4 yds to the FLA 32Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-10
91.0%
Charlotte Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kevin Williams) to the FLA 37Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+4
92.6%
Jalon Jones run for 4 yds to the FLA 33Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 7
OPP 33
-8
93.5%
Jalon Jones sacked by Kelby Collins and Caleb Banks for a loss of 8 yards to the FLA 41Similar
Q4 9:46
4TH & 15
OPP 41
0
94.6%
Grant Gonya punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 3:0696% → 96%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
95.8%
Trevor Etienne run for 6 yds to the FLA 26Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+17
95.8%
Trevor Etienne run for 17 yds to the FLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
96.3%
Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 42Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+6
96.2%
Trevor Etienne run for 6 yds to the FLA 48Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 5
OWN 48
-4
96.1%
Graham Mertz sacked by Nikhai Hill-Green for a loss of 4 yards to the FLA 44Similar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
96.2%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Henry Rutledge at the CLT 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:165% → 5%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-4
94.6%
Jalon Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the CLT 1Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 14
OWN 1
+3
94.9%
Jalon Jones run for 3 yds to the CLT 4Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 11
OWN 4
0
95.2%
Charlotte Penalty, False Start (Jasper Parks) to the CLT 2Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 13
OWN 2
0
95.2%
JONES, Jalon pass deep to the right incomplete intended for THOMAS JR., Duane thrown to the CHA37, clock 04:47. PENALTY CHA Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on WEBER, Colin UF Face mask on BANKS, Caleb , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 13
OWN 2
+8
95.2%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Jack Hestera for 8 yds to the CLT 10Similar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 5
OWN 10
0
95.3%
Grant Gonya punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20FG
7 plays · 34 yds · 1:3797% → 99%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+25
97.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 25 yds to the CLT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
97.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the CLT 15Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+9
97.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 9 yds to the CLT 6Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 1
OPP 6
0
97.8%
Graham Mertz run for no gain to the CLT 6Similar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+23
98.9%
Trey Smack 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:232% → 3%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
97.8%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Bryce Kennon for 10 yds to the CLT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
97.5%
Jalon Jones run for 7 yds to the CLT 42Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+23
97.6%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 23 yds to the FLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
97.1%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
97.1%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
97.3%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
97.4%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:4399% → 99%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.2%
(00:51) [NH] Kneel down by MERTZ, Graham at UF34 (team loss of 1), clock 00:48.Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
99.1%
(00:08) [NH] Kneel down by MERTZ, Graham at UF33 (team loss of 1), clock 00:06.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:30
Jalon Jones run for 7 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)
-2.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 13:52
Shadrick Byrd run for a loss of 10 yards to the FLA 42
-2.2
FG · Q3 7:27
Trey Smack 36 yd FG GOOD
+1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com