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TENN

Tennessee 16 at Florida 29

FLA
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameTD-2.5FLA 93.5%Bru McCoy 55 Yd pass from Joe MiltonIII (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)AWAY 16 - HOME 29 · Q4 8:41
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:41 · Bru McCoy 55 Yd pass from Joe Milton III (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 146Home team on offense+20.3Pregame prior−2.1Score differential+9.6Garbage-time factor+6.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:10: Trevor Etienne 62 Yd Run (Adam Mihalek PAT blocked) — FLA win probability +4.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q2 9:28: Montrell Johnson Jr. 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — FLA win probability +7.3 pts (now 51%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:20: Graham Mertz 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick) — FLA win probability +18.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:22: Montrell Johnson Jr. 18 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Trey Smack Kick) — FLA win probability +13.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 9:31: Charles Campbell 42 Yd Field Goal — TENN win probability +4.6 pts (now 21%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TENN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 7:34FLA 4th & 13 at TENN 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:56TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 44, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:52TENN 4th & 15 at TENN 20, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−1.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:27TENN 4th & 6 at TENN 49, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:31TENN 4th & 7 at FLA 24, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−8.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:53FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 33, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:22TENN 4th & 1 at FLA 17, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    16.7%−2.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−9.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:52FLA 4th & 4 at FLA 25, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:00TENN 4th & 6 at FLA 44, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%−1.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    11.5%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:55FLA 4th & 10 at TENN 10, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    90.5%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:49FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 43, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:31TENN 4th & 10 at FLA 25, down 13
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:04FLA 4th & 16 at FLA 38, up 13
    Close callWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.2%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TENN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 5:33TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:10FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:28FLA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    49.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:20FLA Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:22FLA Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:41TENN Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    7.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1MISSED FG
18 plays · 46 yds · 7:2636% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
35.6%
Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FLA 20Similar
Q1 14:47
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
35.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 5 yds to the FLA 25Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
36.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 10 yds to the FLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
36.2%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
36.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 12 yds to the FLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
36.6%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 49Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+7
36.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 7 yds to the TENN 44Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-10
37.1%
Florida Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FLA 46Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+11
37.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 11 yds to the TENN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
37.6%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the TENN 38Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
38.0%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the TENN 38Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+12
38.1%
Trevor Etienne run for 12 yds to the TENN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
38.6%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the TENN 23Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-5
38.8%
Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 5 yards to the TENN 28Similar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 12
OPP 28
-1
38.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 29Similar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 13
OPP 29
+46
38.0%
Adam Mihalek 46 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Omari ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:5162% → 66%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
38.1%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 3 yds to the TENN 32Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+3
38.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds to the TENN 35Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+11
38.4%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 11 yds to the TENN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
37.9%
Jaylen Wright run for 2 yds to the TENN 48Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+41
38.0%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 41 yds to the FLA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
34.2%
Ramel Keyton 11 Yd pass from Joe Milton III (Charles Campbell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1735% → 39%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.3%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kahleil JacksonSimilar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
35.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 5 yds to the FLA 30Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
35.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 8 yds to the FLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
39.1%
Trevor Etienne 62 Yd Run (Adam Mihalek PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:0061% → 61%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
39.2%
Joe Milton III run for 1 yd to the TENN 26Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+16
39.4%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 16 yds to the TENN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
38.5%
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TENN 37Similar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+6
39.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 6 yds to the TENN 43Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
38.7%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+1
38.4%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 1 yd to the TENN 44Similar
Q1 1:56
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
39.3%
Jackson Ross punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ricky Pearsall at the FLA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5TD
14 plays · 82 yds · 7:1739% → 51%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
39.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jonathan Odom for 12 yds to the FLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
39.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 5 yds to the FLA 35Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
40.6%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the FLA 35Similar
Q1 0:09
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+6
39.7%
Graham Mertz run for 6 yds to the FLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-7
41.4%
Graham Mertz sacked by Bryson Eason for a loss of 7 yards to the FLA 34Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 17
OWN 34
+5
40.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 5 yds to the FLA 39Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+18
40.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 18 yds to the TENN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
42.8%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the TENN 39Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+8
43.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 8 yds to the TENN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
43.9%
Trevor Etienne run for 15 yds to the TENN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
44.1%
Trevor Etienne run for 2 yds to the TENN 14Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+1
44.4%
Trevor Etienne run for 1 yd to the TENN 13Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+9
43.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 9 yds to the TENN 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
51.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6INT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:3654% → 53%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
46.5%
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (Ollie Lane) to the TENN 20Similar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
46.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Bru McCoy for 3 yds to the TENN 23Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-30
47.1%
Joe Milton III pass intercepted, Devin Moore return for 39 yds to the TENN 18, Tennessee Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-9 Yards) to the TENN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7TD
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2252% → 64%
Q2 8:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
52.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the TENN 7Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
53.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jonathan Odom for 6 yds Jonathan Odom fumbled, recovered by FLA Jonathan OdomSimilar
Q2 7:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.1%
Graham Mertz 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:2842% → 39%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
58.1%
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (John Campbell Jr.) to the TENN 20Similar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
58.4%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the TENN 23Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-8
58.8%
Joe Milton III sacked by Tyreak Sapp for a loss of 8 yards to the TENN 15Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+5
59.8%
Jabari Small run for 5 yds to the TENN 20Similar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+6
60.9%
Jackson Ross punt for 41 yds , Ricky Pearsall returns for 6 yds to the FLA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 3:2368% → 84%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
68.2%
Trevor Etienne run for 13 yds to the TENN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
69.0%
Trevor Etienne run for 8 yds to the TENN 34Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+3
67.3%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the TENN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
68.7%
Trevor Etienne run for 5 yds to the TENN 26Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+8
69.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 8 yds to the TENN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
70.5%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Ricky PearsallSimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
84.4%
Montrell Johnson Jr. 18 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Trey Smack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 1:5025% → 25%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.1%
Joe Milton III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
75.7%
Jaylen Wright run for 8 yds to the TENN 33Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
74.4%
Jaylen Wright run for 12 yds to the TENN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
74.0%
Jaylen Wright run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 5
50
-1
73.1%
Jaylen Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 49Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
75.4%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
75.4%
Jackson Ross punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ricky Pearsall at the FLA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
88.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12FG
18 plays · 46 yds · 5:2322% → 21%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
77.7%
Joe Milton III run for a loss of 4 yards to the TENN 26 Joe Milton III fumbled, recovered by TENN Joe Milton IIISimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+3
78.9%
Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds to the TENN 29Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+11
79.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 11 yds to the TENN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
78.4%
Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds to the TENN 43Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
79.0%
Jaylen Wright run for 6 yds to the TENN 49Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
80.4%
Bru McCoy run for 2 yds to the FLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
81.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 10 yds to the FLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
81.4%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the FLA 38Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+5
82.4%
Joe Milton III run for 5 yds to the FLA 33Similar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 4
OPP 33
-5
82.2%
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FLA 38Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+11
83.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to McCallan Castles for 11 yds to the FLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
82.0%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the FLA 24Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
82.3%
Joe Milton III pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
83.8%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Bru McCoySimilar
Q3 9:31
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+42
79.3%
Charles Campbell 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3583% → 86%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.3%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the FLA 25Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
83.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Ricky PearsallSimilar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
85.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 8 yds to the FLA 33Similar
Q3 7:53
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
85.8%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TENN 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:1217% → 18%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
82.6%
Jaylen Wright run for 10 yds to the TENN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
81.8%
Jaylen Wright run for no gain to the TENN 31Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
83.3%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Dont'e Thornton Jr.Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+43
83.7%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 43 yds to the FLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
79.9%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the FLA 25Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+6
80.4%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 6 yds to the FLA 19Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+2
81.6%
Jaylen Wright run for 2 yds to the FLA 17Similar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 1
OPP 17
-2
82.1%
Jaylen Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2689% → 89%
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
89.3%
Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the FLA 19Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+6
89.9%
Trevor Etienne run for 6 yds to the FLA 25Similar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
90.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Ricky PearsallSimilar
Q3 3:52
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
89.4%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TENN 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 18 yds · 3:3013% → 10%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
87.3%
Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ollie Lane) to the TENN 28Similar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+4
88.2%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 4 yds to the TENN 32Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+8
88.6%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Bru McCoy for 8 yds to the TENN 40Similar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+12
88.5%
Joe Milton III run for 12 yds to the FLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
88.0%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the FLA 46Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 13
OWN 49
-14
89.1%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jabari Small for 1 yd to the 50 yard line Tennessee Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the TENN 35Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-5
88.7%
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TENN 49Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 27
OWN 35
+7
89.8%
Jabari Small run for 7 yds to the TENN 42Similar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 20
OWN 42
+14
90.3%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 14 yds to the FLA 44Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
89.9%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Jabari SmallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:5093% → 98%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
93.3%
Treyaun Webb run for 1 yd to the FLA 45Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+15
93.1%
Tennessee Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the TENN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
93.6%
Treyaun Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 41Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+12
94.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 12 yds to the TENN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
95.0%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the TENN 26Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+19
95.2%
Trevor Etienne run for 19 yds to the TENN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
95.4%
Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the TENN 7Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
95.5%
Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the TENN 7Similar
Q4 10:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
95.7%
Graham Mertz run for a loss of 3 yards to the TENN 10Similar
Q4 9:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
97.8%
Trey Smack 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:064% → 7%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.2%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the TENN 28Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
96.1%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Bru McCoySimilar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
96.4%
Jabari Small run for 12 yds to the TENN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
96.1%
Florida Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the TENN 45Similar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 5
OWN 45
0
96.1%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+55
93.5%
Bru McCoy 55 Yd pass from Joe Milton III (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 4:4296% → 98%
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.9%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 27Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
96.1%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the FLA 31Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
96.5%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FLA 34Similar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
96.8%
Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the FLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
97.2%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the FLA 36Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+6
97.1%
Trevor Etienne run for 6 yds to the FLA 42Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+1
97.7%
Trevor Etienne run for 1 yd to the FLA 43Similar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
97.6%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TENN 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 42 yds · 1:073% → 3%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
96.7%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Bru McCoy for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
50
+11
96.6%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Bru McCoy for 11 yds to the FLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
96.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 14 yds to the FLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
96.1%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
96.3%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
96.6%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 10
OPP 25
0
96.8%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Bru McCoySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:1898% → 99%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
98.3%
Trevor Etienne run for 19 yds to the FLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
98.7%
Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 4 yards to the FLA 40Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 14
OWN 40
0
98.7%
Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the FLA 40Similar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 14
OWN 40
-5
98.8%
Florida Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FLA 35Similar
Q4 0:07
3RD & 19
OWN 35
+3
98.7%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the FLA 38Similar
Q4 0:04
4TH & 16
OWN 38
-8
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the FLA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22Uncategorized
1 play · -5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the FLA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:20
Graham Mertz 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)
+18.6
TD · Q2 2:22
Montrell Johnson Jr. 18 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Trey Smack Kick)
+13.9
TD · Q2 9:28
Montrell Johnson Jr. 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com