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CONN

UConn 14 at Georgia State 35

GAST
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Center Parc Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreCONN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:57 · Kade Loggins punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Brett Buckman at the CONN 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Home team on offense+32.8Score differential+22.1Garbage-time factor+12.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+22.4Pregame prior+0.6Blowout margin−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:40: Darren Grainger run for 65 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK) — GAST win probability +2.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 7:03: Darren Grainger run for 3 yds to the CONN 43 — GAST win probability +3.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:22: Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 9 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK) — GAST win probability +6.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:23: Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK) — GAST win probability +12.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:07: Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK) — GAST win probability +5.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7CONN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:25GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:17CONN 4th & 18 at CONN 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:05CONN 4th & 9 at GAST 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    35.0%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:06GAST 4th & 10 at CONN 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    64.4%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:44CONN 4th & 14 at CONN 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−2.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:17CONN 4th & 16 at CONN 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:37CONN 4th & 10 at CONN 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:37GAST 4th & 2 at CONN 21, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%−0.3
    74% to make
    Punt
    90.4%−2.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:29CONN 4th & 2 at CONN 44, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:21GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 46, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:46GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 30, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:33CONN 4th & 15 at CONN 38, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:57GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 22, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:18GAST 4th & 3 at CONN 3, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CONN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 8:40GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:22GAST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:23GAST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:07GAST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:16CONN Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:26GAST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:57CONN Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3559% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
58.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the GAST 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
58.9%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Kris Byrd for 8 yds to the GAST 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-2
58.9%
Darren Grainger sacked by Jackson Mitchell and Jelani Stafford for a loss of 2 yards to the GAST 27Similar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
58.9%
Kade Loggins punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 3:0841% → 41%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
58.9%
Joseph Fagnano run for no gain to the CONN 30Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
59.0%
Devontae Houston run for 6 yds to the CONN 36Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+8
58.9%
Joseph Fagnano run for 8 yds to the CONN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
58.8%
Devontae Houston run for no gain to the CONN 44Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-8
58.9%
Joseph Fagnano sacked by Javon Denis for a loss of 8 yards to the CONN 36Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 18
OWN 36
0
59.0%
Joseph Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 18
OWN 36
0
59.3%
George Caratan punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 1:3759% → 62%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
59.1%
Darren Grainger run for 2 yds to the GAST 20Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 8
OWN 20
-1
59.0%
Darren Grainger run for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 19Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+16
58.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 16 yds to the GAST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
61.5%
Darren Grainger run for 65 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 4FUMBLE
11 plays · 46 yds · 5:2539% → 37%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
61.3%
Devontae Houston run for 3 yds to the CONN 28Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
61.2%
Victor Rosa run for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 27Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
61.5%
Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Justin Joly for 12 yds to the CONN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
61.0%
Devontae Houston run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 37Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 12
OWN 37
-3
61.3%
Joseph Fagnano run for a loss of 3 yards to the CONN 34Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 15
OWN 34
+28
63.0%
Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Cameron Ross for 28 yds to the GAST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
61.4%
Joseph Fagnano run for 3 yds to the GAST 35Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 7
OPP 35
-10
60.8%
FAGNANO, Joe pass short to the right complete for 8 yards to HOUSTON, Devontae caught at the GSU34 and advanced to the GSU27 (HUNTER, Jontrey). PENALTY UCO Illegal Block in the Back on BROWN, Rayonte enforced 10 yards from the GSU35 to the GSU45 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 17
OPP 45
+2
62.0%
Joseph Fagnano run for 2 yds to the GAST 43Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 15
OPP 43
+14
63.0%
Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Jalen Mitchell for 14 yds Jalen Mitchell fumbled, recovered by GAST Jeremiah JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5FUMBLE
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:3063% → 64%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
63.3%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
63.1%
Darren Grainger run for 7 yds to the GAST 36Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+5
63.4%
GRAINGER, Darren pass short to the right incomplete dropped by CARTER, Jacari broken up by MITCHELL, Jackson at the GSU40. PENALTY UCO Offsides on WATTS, Eric enforced 5 yards from the GSU36 to the GSU41 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
64.1%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
63.7%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+6
63.5%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 6 yds Marcus Carroll fumbled, recovered by CONN Durante JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6MISSED FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:4038% → 37%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
61.7%
Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the GAST 46Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+2
61.8%
Joseph Fagnano run for 2 yds to the GAST 44Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+13
61.9%
FAGNANO, Joe pass to the right incomplete intended for PORTER, Geordon thrown to the GSU31. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on BROWN, Bryquice enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the GSU31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
61.0%
Joseph Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+1
61.1%
Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the GAST 30Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
61.9%
Joseph Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:05
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+48
63.5%
Joe McFadden 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 2:5464% → 65%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
64.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jacari Carter for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
63.9%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+14
63.4%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 14 yds to the GAST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
65.2%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the GAST 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+7
65.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 7 yds to the CONN 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+3
64.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the CONN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
65.5%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
66.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the CONN 44Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-1
65.9%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 45Similar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
64.8%
Kade Loggins punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Brett Buckman at the CONN 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 4:2234% → 31%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
65.6%
Victor Rosa run for 7 yds to the CONN 20Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 3
OWN 20
-1
65.2%
Victor Rosa run for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 19Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+7
66.8%
Joseph Fagnano run for 7 yds to the CONN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
65.9%
Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the CONN 27Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+6
66.1%
Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Brett Buckman for 6 yds to the CONN 33Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+3
65.7%
Joseph Fagnano run for 3 yds to the CONN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
65.3%
Joseph Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-4
65.6%
Victor Rosa run for a loss of 4 yards to the CONN 32Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 14
OWN 32
0
66.9%
Joseph Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
69.1%
George Caratan punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9PUNT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
67.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the GAST 17Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
67.7%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 9
OWN 17
0
66.9%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:4170% → 77%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
70.0%
Darren Grainger run for 3 yds to the CONN 43Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+10
69.9%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jacari Carter for 10 yds to the CONN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+23
70.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jacari Carter for 23 yds to the CONN 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
70.2%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the CONN 9Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
70.2%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
76.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 9 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:0524% → 22%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
76.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Cameron Ross for 3 yds to the CONN 29Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-10
75.9%
HOUSTON, Devontae rush to the left for a gain of 16 yards to the UCO45 (JOHNSON, Jeremiah). PENALTY UCO Holding on OFORI-NYADU, Noel enforced 10 yards from the UCO29 to the UCO19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 17
OWN 19
+1
76.6%
Devontae Houston run for 1 yd to the CONN 20Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 16
OWN 20
0
76.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:17
4TH & 16
OWN 20
0
78.2%
George Caratan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jacari Carter at the GAST 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12TD
11 plays · 63 yds · 2:5479% → 92%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
78.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 15 yds to the CONN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
80.0%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
79.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the CONN 47Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+21
78.9%
Darren Grainger run for 21 yds to the CONN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
80.0%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the CONN 23Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
79.9%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 7
OPP 23
-10
79.3%
QB Keeper GRAINGER, Darren rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the UCO20 (MITCHELL, Jackson;WATTS, Eric). PENALTY GSU Holding on TIMMONS, Trevor enforced 10 yards from the UCO23 to the UCO33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 17
OPP 33
+26
79.1%
Darren Grainger run for 26 yds to the CONN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
79.2%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the CONN 2Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.5%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
90.2%
[NH] Kneel down by ROBERSON, Ta'Quan at UCO13 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 3:2310% → 7%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
90.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Geordon Porter for 16 yds to the CONN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
89.9%
HOUSTON, Devontae rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the UCO46 (VENEZIALE, Jordan). PENALTY UCO Holding on WALKER, Yakiri enforced 10 yards from the UCO41 to the UCO31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+1
90.5%
Devontae Houston run for 1 yd to the CONN 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 32
0
90.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for no gain to the CONN 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 32
+9
90.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Justin Joly for 9 yds to the CONN 41Similar
Q3 11:37
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
92.7%
George Caratan punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jacari Carter at the GAST 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15TD
15 plays · 92 yds · 7:3093% → 99%
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
93.2%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the GAST 10Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+15
93.2%
UConn Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Tui Faumuina-Brown) to the GAST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
93.3%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 15 yds to the GAST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
93.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 8 yds to the GAST 47Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
93.7%
Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the GAST 47Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+10
93.5%
Marcus Carroll run for 10 yds to the CONN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
93.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 14 yds to the CONN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
93.8%
Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the CONN 29Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
93.7%
Darren Grainger run for 4 yds to the CONN 25Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+4
93.6%
Darren Grainger run for 4 yds to the CONN 21Similar
Q3 11:37
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+3
93.2%
Darren Grainger run for 3 yds to the CONN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
93.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 4 yds to the CONN 14Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+7
93.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 7 yds to the CONN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
93.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 4 yds to the CONN 3Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.4%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:381% → 0%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
99.5%
Victor Rosa run for 2 yds to the CONN 28Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+8
99.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Brett Buckman for 8 yds to the CONN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
99.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 7 yds to the CONN 43Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+1
99.5%
Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the CONN 44Similar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
99.5%
Devontae Houston run for no gain to the CONN 44Similar
Q3 1:29
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
99.6%
George Caratan punt for 31 yds, downed at the GAST 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 4:08100% → 100%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 4 yds to the GAST 29Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
99.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the GAST 32Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
99.6%
Darren Grainger run for 10 yds to the GAST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-8
99.6%
Jacari Carter run for a loss of 8 yards to the GAST 34Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 18
OWN 34
+1
99.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 1 yd to the GAST 35Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 17
OWN 35
+6
99.7%
Marcus Carroll run for 6 yds to the GAST 41Similar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 11
OWN 41
+5
99.7%
UConn Penalty, Offsides (TEAM) to the GAST 46Similar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
99.7%
Kade Loggins punt for 33 yds , returns for no gain to the CONN 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 3:050% → 2%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
99.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Justin Joly for 16 yds to the CONN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
99.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 3 yds to the CONN 43Similar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+10
99.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Brett Buckman for 10 yds to the GAST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
99.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Rosa for 5 yds to the GAST 42Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
99.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+12
99.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Cameron Ross for 12 yds to the GAST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
99.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Brett Buckman for 7 yds to the GAST 23Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+12
99.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Brett Buckman for 12 yds to the GAST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
98.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 11 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the GAST 27Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
99.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the GAST 30Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.6%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:46
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.5%
Kade Loggins punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brett Buckman at the CONN 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:131% → 1%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
98.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
98.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+14
98.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Cameron Ross for 14 yds to the CONN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
98.7%
UConn Penalty, False Start (Brett Buckman) to the CONN 38Similar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 15
OWN 38
0
98.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 15
OWN 38
0
98.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 15
OWN 38
0
98.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 15
OWN 38
+1
99.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 1 yd to the CONN 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21TD
1 play · 39 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
99.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 39 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 22TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:290% → 1%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
99.9%
UConn Penalty, False Start (Chase Lundt) to the CONN 15Similar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+4
99.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Brett Buckman for 4 yds to the CONN 19Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+20
99.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Geordon Porter for 20 yds to the CONN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
99.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Louis Hansen for 18 yds to the GAST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
99.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Cameron Ross for 5 yds to the GAST 38Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+6
99.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Brett Buckman for 6 yds to the GAST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
99.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Brett Buckman for 32 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
99.7%
KZ Adams run for 6 yds to the GAST 21Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+2
99.7%
KZ Adams run for 2 yds to the GAST 23Similar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
99.7%
Kade Loggins punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Brett Buckman at the CONN 29Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 2
OWN 23
-1
99.8%
KZ Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the GAST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 24INT
2 plays · 8 yds · 2:231% → 1%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
99.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Brett Buckman for 8 yds to the CONN 37Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 2
OWN 37
0
99.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:16100% → 100%
Q4 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
99.8%
KZ Adams run for 1 yd to the CONN 7Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
99.8%
KZ Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 8Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
99.8%
KZ Adams run for 5 yds to the CONN 3Similar
Q4 0:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
99.8%
KZ Adams run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · 10 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+10
99.5%
Victor Rosa run for 10 yds to the CONN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:23
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
+12.3
TD · Q2 5:22
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 9 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
+6.7
TD · Q3 4:07
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
+5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com