Try the model
FLA

Florida 11 at Utah 24

UTAH
2023 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2023 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:59 · Cole Becker 55 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Home team on offense+25.8Pregame prior+2.2Score differential+12.5Garbage-time factor+13.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7Time remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:50: Nate Johnson 27 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick) — UTAH win probability +6.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:52: Cole Becker 51 Yd Field Goal — UTAH win probability +2.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 12:12: Timeout Florida, clock 12:12 — UTAH win probability +2.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:06: Bryson Barnes 5 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick) — UTAH win probability +7.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:22: Caleb Douglas 19 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Graham Mertz Pass to Eugene Wilson for Two-Point Conversion) — FLA win probability +5.4 pts (now 7%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 5 of 8FLA made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 13:21FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:42FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:57UTAH 4th & 3 at UTAH 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:27FLA 4th & 8 at UTAH 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:23UTAH 4th & 6 at UTAH 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:35FLA 4th & 6 at UTAH 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    27.5%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:49FLA 4th & 22 at FLA 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:52UTAH 4th & 9 at FLA 32, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    78.5%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:03FLA 4th & 15 at FLA 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:09UTAH 4th & 5 at midfield, up 14
    Close callPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:36UTAH 4th & 4 at UTAH 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:06FLA 4th & 3 at UTAH 15, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%−0.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−3.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:48UTAH 4th & 15 at UTAH 11, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−1.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:54FLA 4th & 9 at UTAH 45, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−0.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    3.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:16UTAH 4th & 20 at UTAH 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:43FLA 4th & 2 at UTAH 25, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−1.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:59UTAH 4th & 9 at FLA 37, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    95.2%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:34FLA 4th & 3 at UTAH 32, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−1.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:39FLA 4th & 14 at UTAH 30, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:10UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:50UTAH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:06UTAH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:22FLA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    4.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:1928% → 28%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
72.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kahleil Jackson for 8 yds to the FLA 27Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+1
71.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 1 yd to the FLA 28Similar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 1
OWN 28
-5
71.8%
Florida Penalty, False Start (Damieon George Jr.) to the FLA 23Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
71.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Montrell Johnson Jr.Similar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
71.8%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 47 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for no gain to the UTAH 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2TD
1 play · 70 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
72.3%
Money Parks 70 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Cole Becker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1428% → 27%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.3%
Graham Mertz run for 5 yds to the FLA 30Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
72.3%
Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the FLA 30Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
72.4%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kahleil JacksonSimilar
Q1 11:42
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+57
72.6%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 57 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UTAH 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 4:4573% → 73%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
72.5%
Utah Penalty, False Start (Keaton Bills) to the UTAH 7Similar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+9
72.5%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 9 yds to the UTAH 16Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+1
72.6%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 1 yd to the UTAH 17Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 5
OWN 17
-5
72.5%
Utah Penalty, False Start (Spencer Fano) to the UTAH 12Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+12
72.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Thomas Yassmin for 12 yds to the UTAH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
72.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Miki Suguturaga for 17 yds to the UTAH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
73.3%
Bryson Barnes run for 5 yds to the UTAH 46Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+2
73.5%
Jaylon Glover run for 2 yds to the UTAH 48Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
73.3%
Jaylon Glover run for no gain to the UTAH 48Similar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
73.1%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5FG
7 plays · 65 yds · 4:1327% → 30%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
73.0%
Eugene Wilson run for 9 yds to the FLA 29Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+37
72.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Marcus Burke for 37 yds to the UTAH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+17
72.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 17 yds to the UTAH 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-8
71.9%
Graham Mertz sacked by Jonah Elliss for a loss of 8 yards to the UTAH 25Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 18
OPP 25
+6
72.4%
Trevor Etienne run for 6 yds to the UTAH 19Similar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+4
72.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 4 yds to the UTAH 15Similar
Q1 2:27
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+32
70.5%
Adam Mihalek 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5471% → 70%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
70.9%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Miki SuguturagaSimilar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
70.7%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 4 yds to the UTAH 20Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
70.3%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Micah BernardSimilar
Q1 1:23
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
70.0%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ricky Pearsall at the FLA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:3030% → 30%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
70.4%
Treyaun Webb run for 3 yds to the FLA 40Similar
Q1 0:39
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+24
69.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Marcus Burke for 24 yds to the UTAH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+18
69.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jonathan Odom for 18 yds to the UTAH 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
68.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the UTAH 15Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
68.6%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Ricky PearsallSimilar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 7
OPP 15
-5
69.1%
Florida Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UTAH 20Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+11
69.5%
Graham Mertz run for 11 yds to the UTAH 9 Graham Mertz fumbled, recovered by FLASimilar
Q2 13:53
4TH & 1
OPP 9
-5
69.7%
Florida Penalty, False Start (Damieon George Jr.) to the UTAH 14Similar
Q2 13:35
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+31
70.1%
Adam Mihalek 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 5:3071% → 79%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
70.5%
Micah Bernard run for 3 yds to the UTAH 23Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
70.4%
Nate Johnson run for 8 yds to the UTAH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
70.6%
Micah Bernard run for 13 yds to the UTAH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
71.5%
Micah Bernard run for 2 yds to the UTAH 46Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 46
-4
71.5%
Nate Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTAH 42Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+9
69.9%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 9 yds to the FLA 49Similar
Q2 9:29
4TH & 3
OPP 49
+5
70.4%
Bouwmeester, Jack punt 45 yards to the FLORIDA4, fair catch by Wilson, Eugene, PENALTY FLORIDA substitution infraction 5 yards to the FLORIDA44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAH.Similar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
72.0%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
71.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 15 yds to the FLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
72.4%
Nate Johnson run for 2 yds to the FLA 27Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+27
79.1%
Nate Johnson 27 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:3122% → 21%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.6%
Trevor Etienne run for 4 yds to the FLA 29Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
77.3%
Trevor Etienne run for 8 yds to the FLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
77.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Caleb DouglasSimilar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-12
77.5%
Graham Mertz sacked by Cole Bishop for a loss of 12 yards to the FLA 25Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 22
OWN 25
0
78.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Ricky PearsallSimilar
Q2 5:49
4TH & 22
OWN 25
0
79.2%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FLA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 10FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:3480% → 83%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
80.1%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds to the FLA 44Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+4
80.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Thomas Yassmin for 4 yds to the FLA 40Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+7
79.9%
Micah Bernard run for 7 yds to the FLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
81.1%
Devaughn Vele pass incomplete to Micah BernardSimilar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
81.1%
Bryson Barnes run for 1 yd to the FLA 32Similar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
80.7%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Mycah PittmanSimilar
Q2 2:52
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+51
83.0%
Cole Becker 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3818% → 16%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
82.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Montrell Johnson Jr.Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-9
82.5%
Graham Mertz sacked by Keanu Tanuvasa for a loss of 9 yards to the FLA 20Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 19
OWN 20
+4
83.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Tony Livingston for 4 yds to the FLA 24Similar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 15
OWN 24
+6
83.9%
Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 55 yds , Mycah Pittman returns for 6 yds to the UTAH 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:4885% → 85%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
84.8%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Micah Bernard for 8 yds to the UTAH 35Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+10
83.1%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 10 yds to the UTAH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
83.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 5
50
0
86.0%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Thomas YassminSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 5
50
0
84.7%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Mikey Matthews for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 5
50
0
84.5%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 41 yds, downed at the FLA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
84.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0686% → 85%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.5%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 4 yds to the UTAH 29Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
85.8%
Jaylon Glover run for 2 yds to the UTAH 31Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
85.5%
Nate Johnson pass incomplete to Devaughn VeleSimilar
Q3 13:36
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+61
84.9%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 61 yds , Eugene Wilson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:5914% → 14%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
85.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FLA 9Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+2
86.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jonathan Odom for 2 yds to the FLA 11Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 6
OWN 11
-2
86.0%
Graham Mertz pass intercepted Sione Vaki return for 2 yds to the FLA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16TD
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:5688% → 96%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
88.4%
Jaylon Glover run for 2 yds to the FLA 9Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+4
88.5%
Mikey Matthews run for 4 yds to the FLA 5Similar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
95.6%
Bryson Barnes 5 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:455% → 5%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
94.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 40 yds to the UTAH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
94.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 13 yds to the UTAH 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
93.9%
Trevor Etienne run for 2 yds to the UTAH 20Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+7
94.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 7 yds to the UTAH 13Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 1
OPP 13
-5
94.8%
Florida Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the UTAH 18Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+3
94.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 3 yds to the UTAH 15Similar
Q3 8:06
4TH & 3
OPP 15
-1
95.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Dante Zanders for a loss of 1 yard to the UTAH 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 2:0796% → 96%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-7
95.9%
Nate Johnson run for a loss of 7 yards to the UTAH 9 Nate Johnson fumbled, recovered by UTAH Nate JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 17
OWN 9
+4
96.2%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 4 yds to the UTAH 13Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 13
OWN 13
-2
96.3%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Micah Bernard for a loss of 2 yards to the UTAH 11Similar
Q3 5:48
4TH & 15
OWN 11
+6
96.2%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 64 yds , Ricky Pearsall returns for 6 yds to the FLA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:544% → 3%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
95.9%
Florida Penalty, False Start (Jake Slaughter) to the FLA 26Similar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+12
96.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 12 yds to the FLA 38Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+16
96.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 16 yds to the UTAH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
96.6%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
96.6%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Ricky PearsallSimilar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+1
96.7%
Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the UTAH 45Similar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 9
OPP 45
-12
96.8%
Graham Mertz sacked by Jonah Elliss for a loss of 12 yards to the FLA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 2:1797% → 98%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-9
97.4%
Money Parks run for a loss of 9 yards to the UTAH 48Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 19
OWN 48
+8
97.5%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 8 yds to the FLA 44Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 11
OPP 44
-10
97.6%
Utah Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tanoa Togiai) to the UTAH 46Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 21
OWN 46
+1
98.0%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 1 yd to the UTAH 47Similar
Q3 1:16
4TH & 20
OWN 47
+51
97.9%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 50 yds, downed at the FLA 3 Florida Penalty, Offensive Holding (1 Yards) to the FLA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21TD
16 plays · 98 yds · 6:332% → 7%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+23
97.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jonathan Odom for 23 yds to the FLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the FLA 25Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 4 yds to the FLA 29Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
98.2%
Mertz, Graham pass incomplete to Douglas, Caleb, PENALTY UTAH pass interference 12 yards to the FLORIDA41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDA.Similar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
98.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jonathan Odom for 3 yds to the FLA 44Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+7
98.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 7 yds to the UTAH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.5%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Marcus BurkeSimilar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-2
98.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Trevor Etienne for a loss of 2 yards to the FLA 49Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+5
98.6%
Utah Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UTAH 46Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+13
98.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson for 13 yds to the UTAH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
98.5%
Trevor Etienne run for 5 yds to the UTAH 28Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
98.5%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 5
OPP 28
-5
98.6%
Florida Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the UTAH 33Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+8
98.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 8 yds to the UTAH 25Similar
Q4 9:43
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+6
98.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 6 yds to the UTAH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
93.4%
Caleb Douglas 19 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Graham Mertz Pass to Eugene Wilson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 22MISSED FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:0695% → 96%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
95.2%
Nate Johnson run for 19 yds to the UTAH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
95.9%
Micah Bernard run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 4
50
+12
96.1%
Micah Bernard run for 12 yds to the FLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
96.4%
Micah Bernard run for 2 yds to the FLA 36Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 8
OPP 36
-1
96.6%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Thomas Yassmin for a loss of 1 yard to the FLA 37Similar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
96.6%
Bryson Barnes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:59
4TH & 9
OPP 37
+55
96.2%
Cole Becker 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 33 yds · 4:014% → 3%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
95.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Eugene Wilson for 11 yds to the FLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
95.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 13 yds to the UTAH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
95.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 3 yds to the UTAH 36Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-10
96.0%
Florida Penalty, Offensive Holding (Damieon George Jr.) to the UTAH 46Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 17
OPP 46
+8
97.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 8 yds to the UTAH 38Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+6
97.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 6 yds to the UTAH 32Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+6
97.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 6 yds to the UTAH 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
96.6%
Graham Mertz run for 2 yds to the UTAH 24Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
96.5%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Ricky PearsallSimilar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 8
OPP 24
-6
97.1%
Graham Mertz sacked by Logan Fano for a loss of 6 yards to the UTAH 30Similar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 14
OPP 30
0
97.4%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Caleb DouglasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:0999% → 99%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTAH 27Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 13
OWN 27
-8
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the UTAH 19Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 21
OWN 19
-1
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTAH 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:06
Bryson Barnes 5 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)
+7.1
TD · Q2 7:50
Nate Johnson 27 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)
+6.7
TD · Q4 9:22
Caleb Douglas 19 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Graham Mertz Pass to Eugene Wilson for Two-Point Conversion)
-5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com