Try the model
NCSU

NC State 24 at UConn 14

CONN
2023 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2023 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Joseph Fagnano run for 2 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 7Pregame prior−36.9Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:19: Timeout NC State, clock 03:19 — CONN win probability +5.2 pts (now 29%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:22: Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — NCSU win probability +12.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:04: Victor Rosa run for 71 yds for a TD UConn Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Victor Rosa) to the NCSU 0 (Joe McFadden KICK) — CONN win probability +21.1 pts (now 35%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:54: Michael Allen run for 18 yds to the CONN 9 for a 1ST down — NCSU win probability +8.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:34: Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — NCSU win probability +12.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00CONN 4th & 1 at NCSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:41CONN 4th & 4 at CONN 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:43NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:37CONN 4th & 12 at NCSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:34NCSU 4th & 4 at CONN 32, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.9%−0.7
    51% to make
    Punt
    70.9%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:56CONN 4th & 7 at CONN 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00NCSU 4th & 4 at CONN 26, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.8%−0.5
    64% to make
    Punt
    64.5%−5.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:40NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:49CONN 4th & 13 at CONN 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−3.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:08CONN 4th & 11 at CONN 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:28NCSU 4th & 1 at CONN 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    79.3%−5.0
    23% to make
    Punt
    81.1%−3.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:53CONN 4th & 15 at NCSU 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%−0.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:14NCSU 4th & 8 at CONN 47, up 10
    Close callPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:14CONN 4th & 2 at CONN 28, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.5%−0.3
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:21CONN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:48NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:22NCSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:04CONN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:34NCSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CONNDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:3913% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
13.1%
Devontae Houston run for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
13.1%
Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Geordon Porter for 6 yds to the CONN 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+14
13.1%
Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Cameron Ross for 14 yds to the CONN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
13.1%
Devontae Houston run for 2 yds to the CONN 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+6
13.1%
Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Geordon Porter for 6 yds to the NCSU 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+1
13.1%
Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the NCSU 47Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+2
13.1%
Joseph Fagnano run for 2 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
13.1%
Alexander Honig pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+10
13.1%
Joseph Fagnano run for 10 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
13.1%
Victor Rosa run for 4 yds to the NCSU 31Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+13
16.5%
Joseph Fagnano run for 13 yds to the NCSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
18.2%
Victor Rosa run for 18 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 4:2782% → 82%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
17.7%
Jordan Houston run for 15 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
17.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 12 yds to the CONN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
17.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the CONN 34Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+4
17.1%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the CONN 30Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+16
17.3%
Delbert Mimms III run for 16 yds to the CONN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
17.1%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the CONN 11Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 7
OPP 11
-1
17.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jordan Houston for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 12Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+8
17.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Porter Rooks for 8 yds to the CONN 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
17.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:0719% → 20%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
18.7%
Brian Brewton run for 8 yds to the CONN 33Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
19.1%
Brian Brewton run for 5 yds to the CONN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
19.0%
Brian Brewton run for 6 yds to the CONN 44Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
19.4%
Joseph Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
19.1%
Joseph Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:41
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
19.9%
George Caratan punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:5881% → 79%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
19.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 5 yds to the NCSU 17Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 5
OWN 17
0
19.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+8
20.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the NCSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
20.3%
Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd to the NCSU 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
20.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
20.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:43
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
21.2%
Caden Noonkester punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 4:0621% → 23%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
21.2%
Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Brett Buckman for 7 yds to the CONN 36Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+8
21.9%
Devontae Houston run for 8 yds to the CONN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
22.1%
Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Devontae Houston for 10 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
22.4%
Joseph Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
22.3%
Devontae Houston run for 2 yds to the NCSU 44Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 8
OPP 44
-5
22.0%
UConn Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSU 49Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+1
21.2%
Joseph Fagnano run for 1 yd to the NCSU 48Similar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 12
OPP 48
0
23.1%
George Caratan punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6MISSED FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 6:0377% → 75%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
22.9%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NCSU 26Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+10
22.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 10 yds to the NCSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
22.3%
Keyon Lesane run for 8 yds to the NCSU 44Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+3
21.5%
Michael Allen run for 3 yds to the NCSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
21.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Julian Gray for 5 yds to the CONN 48Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+2
21.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the CONN 46Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+8
21.5%
Michael Allen run for 8 yds to the CONN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
21.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Trent Pennix for 7 yds to the CONN 31Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 3
OPP 31
-5
20.7%
NC State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CONN 36Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+6
21.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the CONN 30Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 2
OPP 30
-2
21.2%
Delbert Mimms III run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 32Similar
Q2 4:34
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+50
24.8%
Brayden Narveson 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3829% → 28%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
28.5%
Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Justin Joly for no gain to the CONN 32Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
28.2%
Victor Rosa run for 3 yds to the CONN 35Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
27.7%
Joseph Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:56
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
28.0%
George Caratan punt for 50 yds, downed at the NCSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8FG
15 plays · 59 yds · 2:5673% → 76%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
26.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 11 yds to the NCSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
26.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NCSU 32Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+2
25.4%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the NCSU 34Similar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+3
26.0%
Delbert Mimms III run for 3 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
25.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Julian Gray for 9 yds to the NCSU 46Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+12
25.2%
Jordan Houston run for 12 yds to the CONN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
25.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+10
26.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Porter Rooks for 10 yds to the CONN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
24.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+8
24.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 8 yds to the CONN 24Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 2
OPP 24
-2
25.0%
Jordan Houston run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 26Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+44
23.9%
Brayden Narveson 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:0975% → 72%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
25.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 9 yds to the NCSU 38Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+5
23.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Michael Allen for 5 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
23.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Michael Allen for 3 yds to the NCSU 46Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
23.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:49
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-4
24.1%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Noah Plack and Donovan Branch for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSU 42Similar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
27.7%
Caden Noonkester punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brett Buckman at the CONN 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 3:5127% → 28%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
26.9%
Joseph Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+3
26.8%
Devontae Houston run for 3 yds to the CONN 17Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+9
25.9%
Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Devontae Houston for 9 yds to the CONN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
27.4%
Devontae Houston run for 8 yds to the CONN 34Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+2
29.1%
Devontae Houston run for 2 yds to the CONN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
28.1%
Joseph Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-3
27.6%
Victor Rosa run for a loss of 3 yards to the CONN 33Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
26.0%
Joseph Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
27.4%
George Caratan punt for 58 yds, downed at the NCSU 9Similar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+15
28.2%
ARMSTRONG, Brennan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for TIMMONS JR., Terrell thrown to the NCS49. PENALTY UCN Pass Interference on BIN-WAHAD, Mumu enforced 15 yards to the NCS24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11TD
13 plays · 91 yds · 6:2772% → 86%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
27.7%
Brennan Armstrong run for 10 yds to the NCSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+18
27.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Timmons Jr. for 18 yds to the CONN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
25.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Michael Allen for 19 yds to the CONN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
24.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the CONN 24Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+2
24.0%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the CONN 22Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+11
25.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 11 yds to the CONN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
24.0%
Jordan Houston run for 7 yds to the CONN 4Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 3
OPP 4
-1
24.0%
Delbert Mimms III run for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 5Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+2
27.3%
Delbert Mimms III run for 2 yds to the CONN 3Similar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+1
29.3%
ARMSTRONG, Brennan pass short to the right incomplete intended for LESANE, Keyon thrown to the UCN0, clock 03:12. PENALTY UCN Pass Interference on FAUMUINA-BROWN, Tui enforced 1 yards to the UCN2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
26.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the CONN 1Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.0%
Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 12TD
1 play · 71 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
35.2%
Victor Rosa run for 71 yds for a TD UConn Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Victor Rosa) to the NCSU 0 (Joe McFadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13TD
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:2074% → 86%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
26.5%
Michael Allen run for 18 yds to the CONN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
26.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
26.5%
Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the CONN 8Similar
Q3 0:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
14.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5217% → 15%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
17.1%
Victor Rosa run for 2 yds to the CONN 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
17.5%
Joseph Fagnano sacked by Davin Vann for a loss of 3 yards to the CONN 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
16.0%
Joseph Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:08
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
14.9%
George Caratan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:4083% → 85%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
16.8%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NCSU 38Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+7
15.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 7 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
15.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
15.6%
Jordan Houston run for 7 yds to the CONN 48Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+2
15.7%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the CONN 46Similar
Q4 11:28
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
14.7%
Delbert Mimms III run for no gain to the CONN 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 3:3517% → 12%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
16.6%
Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Justin Joly for 7 yds to the NCSU 47Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
18.1%
Victor Rosa run for no gain to the NCSU 47Similar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+6
17.4%
Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Justin Joly for 6 yds to the NCSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-7
17.7%
Joseph Fagnano sacked by Red Hibbler for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSU 48Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 17
OPP 48
+2
16.3%
Joseph Fagnano run for 2 yds to the NCSU 46Similar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 15
OPP 46
0
15.4%
Joseph Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 15
OPP 46
0
11.7%
George Caratan punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 4:3989% → 94%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
11.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 19Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+12
11.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 12 yds to the NCSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
10.8%
Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the NCSU 36Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+1
8.2%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the NCSU 37Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+14
8.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 14 yds to the CONN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
7.7%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the CONN 44Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-3
7.5%
Jordan Houston run for a loss of 3 yards to the CONN 47Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
8.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
6.4%
Caden Noonkester punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18INT
11 plays · 41 yds · 2:207% → 5%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
7.2%
Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Victor Rosa for 3 yds to the CONN 23Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
7.2%
Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Victor Rosa for 5 yds to the CONN 28Similar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
7.4%
Joseph Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+3
6.8%
Victor Rosa run for 3 yds to the CONN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+25
7.7%
Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Justin Joly for 25 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
9.3%
Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Devontae Houston for 3 yds to the NCSU 41Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
9.3%
Joseph Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+12
9.0%
Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Brett Buckman for 12 yds to the NCSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
7.0%
FAGNANO, Joe pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HANSEN, Louis thrown to the NCS0. PENALTY UCN Holding on HAYNES, Christian enforced 10 yards from the NCS29 to the NCS39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 20
OPP 39
0
5.0%
Joseph Fagnano pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19END OF GAME
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:5497% → 97%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
3.5%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the NCSU 34Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
3.4%
[SG] Kneel down by ARMSTRONG, Brennan at NCS32 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:04
Victor Rosa run for 71 yds for a TD UConn Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Victor Rosa) to the NCSU 0 (Joe McFadden KICK)
+21.1
TD · Q3 2:22
Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
-12
TD · Q3 0:34
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
-12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com