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MD

Maryland 16 at NC State 12

NCSU
2022 · Duke's Mayo Bowl · Dec 30, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:02 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:07: Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 19 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK) — MD win probability +8.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 4:37: Christopher Dunn 19 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 50%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:14: Christopher Dunn 38 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. FG · Q4 9:23: Christopher Dunn 26 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. FG · Q4 5:36: Chad Ryland 45 yd FG GOOD — MD win probability +10.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 12MD made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 9:56MD 4th & 2 at NCSU 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    43.0%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:10NCSU 4th & 4 at MD 21, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.6%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:24MD 4th & 6 at NCSU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−2.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:54NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:16MD 4th & 1 at NCSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    42.4%−1.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:40NCSU 4th & 1 at MD 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    57.7%−1.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:37NCSU 4th & 2 at MD 2, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%−1.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−9.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:21MD 4th & 22 at MD 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−3.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:40NCSU 4th & 12 at NCSU 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−1.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:12MD 4th & 19 at MD 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−4.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:14NCSU 4th & 8 at MD 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−2.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    46.6%−5.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:58NCSU 4th & 15 at NCSU 42, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−3.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:06MD 4th & 8 at NCSU 15, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−9.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:43NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−2.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:43MD 4th & 3 at MD 34, up 4
    Close callPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:15NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 27, down 4
    Close callPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:05MD 4th & 25 at MD 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−6.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:20NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 45, down 4
    Close callPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:23NCSU 4th & 3 at MD 9, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−15.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:36MD 4th & 9 at NCSU 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−2.0
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−18.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:30NCSU 4th & 9 at MD 49, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%−1.6
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:34MD 4th & 5 at MD 43, up 4
    Close callPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 8:07MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1DOWNS
11 plays · 60 yds · 4:5948% → 47%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
52.4%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the Mary 26Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
52.5%
Roman Hemby run for 5 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+45
52.6%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 45 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
52.4%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+4
52.4%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 4 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+9
52.5%
Roman Hemby run for 9 yds to the NCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
52.4%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the NCSt 4Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
52.3%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the NCSt 1Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
52.5%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 2Similar
Q1 9:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-13
52.8%
Billy Edwards Jr. sacked by Drake Thomas for a loss of 13 yards to the NCSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:2753% → 53%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
53.1%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
53.2%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Darryl JonesSimilar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 7
OWN 18
-2
52.9%
Ben Finley pass intercepted Fa'Najae Gotay return for 2 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1248% → 47%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
52.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Quashon FullerSimilar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
52.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Quashon FullerSimilar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
52.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass intercepted, touchback. Cyrus Fagan return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4FG
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:4553% → 55%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
53.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Michael Allen for 14 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
53.2%
Michael Allen run for 3 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+36
53.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 36 yds to the Mary 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
54.3%
Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
54.5%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+4
54.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Michael Allen for 4 yds to the Mary 21Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
54.8%
Christopher Dunn 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5FG
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:2146% → 47%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+25
53.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 25 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
53.5%
Antwain Littleton II run for 3 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-2
53.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Antwain Littleton II for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 27Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+3
54.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 3 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q1 3:24
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
53.2%
Chad Ryland 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2354% → 53%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.7%
Jordan Houston run for no gain to the NCSt 25Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
53.8%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
53.8%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q1 1:54
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
53.2%
Caden Noonkester punt for 35 yds , Jeshaun Jones returns for no gain to the Mary 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:3547% → 47%
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
52.9%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 34Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+12
53.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 12 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
52.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 6 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q1 0:26
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+3
51.7%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
51.7%
Antwain Littleton II run for no gain to the NCSt 45Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
52.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Corey DychesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:3056% → 56%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
55.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 2 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-5
55.9%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 13
OWN 42
0
54.9%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Darryl JonesSimilar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+17
54.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Julian Gray for 17 yds to the Mary 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
56.5%
Michael Allen run for no gain to the Mary 41Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
56.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Michael Allen for 3 yds to the Mary 38Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+6
56.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 6 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q2 11:40
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
55.6%
Jordan Houston run for no gain to the Mary 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:2047% → 59%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
53.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 11 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
52.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the Mary 44Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+4
52.2%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+26
51.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 26 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
50.4%
Roman Hemby run for 11 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
49.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 1 yd to the NCSt 14Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-5
49.6%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 19Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 14
OPP 19
0
49.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Joseph Bearns IIISimilar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 14
OPP 19
+19
41.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 19 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10FG
12 plays · 73 yds · 3:1843% → 50%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
43.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Porter Rooks for 9 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
44.8%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
43.8%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the NCSt 37Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
43.3%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Terrell Timmons Jr.Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+12
42.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Darryl Jones for 12 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+27
45.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Darryl Jones for 27 yds to the Mary 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+22
46.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 22 yds to the Mary 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
46.5%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Darryl JonesSimilar
Q2 4:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
46.4%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Cedd SeabroughSimilar
Q2 4:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
45.2%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Darryl JonesSimilar
Q2 4:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
49.9%
Christopher Dunn 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 1:5953% → 52%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
46.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 7 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
46.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Tai FeltonSimilar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+8
46.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 8 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
45.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Shaleak KnottsSimilar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-7
44.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by C.J. Clark for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 36Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 17
OWN 36
0
47.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Tai FeltonSimilar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 17
OWN 36
-5
47.7%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mary 31Similar
Q2 2:21
4TH & 22
OWN 31
0
47.9%
Colton Spangler punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:3648% → 45%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
47.7%
Ben Finley pass complete to Cedd Seabrough for 3 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
47.6%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Julian GraySimilar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
46.6%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 7
OWN 33
-5
45.6%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
45.0%
Caden Noonkester punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the Mary 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:2354% → 52%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
45.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Roman HembySimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
45.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jeshaun JonesSimilar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-9
46.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Payton Wilson for a loss of 9 yards to the Mary 14 MARYLAND Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Mary 14Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 19
OWN 14
+4
48.1%
Colton Spangler punt for 43 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 4 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14FG
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:4650% → 53%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
50.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 7 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
50.9%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+23
50.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 23 yds to the Mary 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
52.5%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Darryl JonesSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+2
52.4%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the Mary 21Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 8
OPP 21
0
48.7%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+38
52.6%
Christopher Dunn 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
49.4%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the Mary 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 1:5352% → 50%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
52.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Cedd Seabrough for 4 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
52.6%
Delbert Mimms III run for 3 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
51.9%
Finley, Ben pass incomplete to Jones, Darryl, PENALTY MARYLAND personal foul 15 yards to the NCSTATE47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.Similar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
55.4%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+10
52.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Darryl Jones for 10 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
55.0%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
52.3%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q3 13:05
4TH & 10
OWN 47
-5
50.8%
NC STATE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 15
OWN 42
0
49.9%
Caden Noonkester punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the Mary 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 4:4950% → 55%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
49.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 2 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+15
49.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 15 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
48.0%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the Mary 44Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
48.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Shaleak KnottsSimilar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+23
49.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 23 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
45.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 8 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 2
OPP 25
-10
45.5%
MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 35Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 12
OPP 35
0
46.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Tai FeltonSimilar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+18
48.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 18 yds to the NCSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
45.3%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 18Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+3
45.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 3 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
46.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Octavian Smith Jr.Similar
Q3 8:06
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+33
44.8%
Chad Ryland 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1846% → 42%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.3%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
46.0%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Christopher ToudleSimilar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
44.6%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Jordan HoustonSimilar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+4
42.3%
Caden Noonkester punt for 52 yds , Jeshaun Jones returns for 4 yds to the Mary 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5655% → 56%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
44.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Tai FeltonSimilar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
43.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Ramon Brown for 1 yd to the Mary 28Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 9
OWN 28
-5
44.4%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mary 23Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 14
OWN 23
+11
44.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 11 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q3 5:43
4TH & 3
OWN 34
+4
43.9%
Colton Spangler punt for 49 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 4 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2245% → 41%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
44.7%
Jordan Houston run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 18Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 13
OWN 18
0
44.2%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 13
OWN 18
+9
41.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Porter Rooks for 9 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
41.0%
Caden Noonkester punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tarheeb Still at the Mary 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 3:0561% → 59%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
39.4%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 29Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+16
39.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 16 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
36.3%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the Mary 46Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
35.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jeshaun JonesSimilar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-16
36.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Payton Wilson for a loss of 16 yards to the Mary 30Similar
Q3 1:05
4TH & 25
OWN 30
0
41.0%
Colton Spangler punt for 63 yds, downed at the NCSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 4:3540% → 39%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
40.4%
Demarcus Jones II run for 4 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 6
OWN 11
-2
40.5%
Demarcus Jones II run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 9Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+10
38.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 10 yds to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
40.8%
Demarcus Jones II run for 1 yd to the NCSt 20Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-5
40.5%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 15Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 14
OWN 15
0
40.1%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 14
OWN 15
+25
38.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Demarcus Jones II for 25 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
43.8%
Demarcus Jones II run for 1 yd to the NCSt 41Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+4
42.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Julian Gray for 4 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
42.6%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
39.2%
Caden Noonkester punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tarheeb Still at the Mary 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
34.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass intercepted Rakeim Ashford return for no gain to the Mary 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24FG
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:4548% → 51%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
47.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 19 yds to the Mary 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
47.6%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the Mary 12Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
48.0%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+3
45.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jordan Houston for 3 yds to the Mary 9Similar
Q4 9:23
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+26
51.2%
Christopher Dunn 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 25FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:4454% → 73%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Shaleak KnottsSimilar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
46.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 7 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+30
45.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 30 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
40.8%
Roman Hemby run for 9 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 1
OPP 29
-3
36.6%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+4
38.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 4 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
35.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Leon Haughton Jr.Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-1
35.1%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 29Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+2
37.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+45
26.7%
Chad Ryland 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 1:0537% → 34%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
36.8%
MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
50
+1
41.6%
Demarcus Jones II run for 1 yd to the Mary 49Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
38.8%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Darryl JonesSimilar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
35.3%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Demarcus Jones IISimilar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 9
OPP 49
-5
32.6%
NC STATE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 46Similar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 14
OWN 46
+5
31.3%
MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Mary 49Similar
Q4 4:30
4TH & 9
OPP 49
+7
34.1%
Caden Noonkester punt for 34 yds , Tarheeb Still returns for 7 yds to the Mary 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 27PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 1:5176% → 83%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
24.4%
Roman Hemby run for 8 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+8
22.5%
Octavian Smith Jr. run for 8 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
16.3%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the Mary 39Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+4
15.6%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
15.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for no gain to the Mary 43Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
16.7%
Colton Spangler punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 28INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.3%
Ben Finley pass intercepted Jakorian Bennett return for no gain to the Mary 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 29Uncategorized
4 plays · 10 yds · 2:0587% → 95%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
12.7%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+2
7.5%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+6
5.2%
Antwain Littleton II run for 6 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
4.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 5:36
Chad Ryland 45 yd FG GOOD
-10.8
TD · Q2 8:07
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 19 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)
-8
FG · Q4 9:23
Christopher Dunn 26 yd FG GOOD
+5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com