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CLT

Charlotte 42 at Georgia State 41

GAST
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Center Parc Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreCLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:19 · Bailey Rice punt for 41 yds, downed at the Charl 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Pregame prior+23.4Home team on offense−2.5Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:10: Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 7 yds for a TD, (Antonio Zita KICK) — CLT win probability +16.6 pts (now 46%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:50: Chris Reynolds pass complete to Henry Rutledge for 31 yds for a TD, (Antonio Zita KICK) — CLT win probability +25.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:00: Tucker Gregg 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — GAST win probability +23.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 1:39: Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 32 yds for a TD GEORGIA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jamari Thrash) to the Charl 0, (D. Grainger Run For Two-point Conversion) — GAST win probability +51.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:17: Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 2 yds for a TD, (Antonio Zita KICK) — CLT win probability +65.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 9CLT made the numbers' call on 12 of 12
  1. Q1 3:30CLT 4th & 2 at GAST 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    12.2%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−1.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:09CLT 4th & 2 at GAST 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:12GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:58GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:59CLT 4th & 7 at CLT 44, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:39CLT 4th & 7 at CLT 44, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:39GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 45, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:19GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 45, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:30CLT 4th & 17 at CLT 7, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−3.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:19CLT 4th & 17 at CLT 7, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−3.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:04GAST 4th & 10 at CLT 38, down 1
    Close callWent for it · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.1%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    73.9%−0.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    74.3%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00GAST 4th & 10 at CLT 38, down 1
    Close callWent for it · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.1%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    73.9%−0.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    74.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:43CLT 4th & 1 at GAST 29, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.5%−4.5
    58% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−14.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:34CLT 4th & 1 at GAST 29, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.5%−4.7
    58% to make
    Punt
    22.6%−14.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:34GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 38, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%−3.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:44GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 38, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%−3.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:32CLT 4th & 2 at GAST 46, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    41.5%−10.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−4.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:32CLT 4th & 2 at GAST 46, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    41.5%−10.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−4.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:44GAST 4th & 5 at CLT 38, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    51.4%−2.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    48.6%−4.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:44CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 38, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−4.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:21CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 38, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−5.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CLT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:30GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:56CLT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:21GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:50CLT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:04CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:29GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:10CLT Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:28GAST Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:50CLT Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:00GAST Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    56.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    55.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:39GAST Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    80.6%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    81.2%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:17CLT Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−13.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3089% → 89%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
89.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 22 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
89.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+4
89.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 4 yds to the Charl 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+7
89.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 7 yds to the Charl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
89.2%
Darren Grainger run for 4 yds to the Charl 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+7
89.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 7 yds to the Charl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
89.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the Charl 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
89.2%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+11
89.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 11 yds to the Charl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
89.2%
WILLIAMS, Jamyest rush up the middle for no gain to the CLT14 (JONES, Wayne). PENALTY CLT Face mask on JACKSON, Miguel enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the CLT12 to the CLT6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
89.2%
Darren Grainger run for a loss of 3 yards to the Charl 9Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
88.9%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Kris Byrd for 9 yds for a TD CHARLOTTE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Charl 0, (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3411% → 13%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.7%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
88.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 9 yds to the Charl 34Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
88.7%
Shadrick Byrd run for 2 yds to the Charl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
88.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 9 yds to the Charl 45Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+20
88.6%
ChaVon McEachern run for 20 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
88.5%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+23
88.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Eugene Minter Jr. for 23 yds to the GeoSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
88.5%
Shadrick Byrd run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
86.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 7 yds for a TD, (Antonio Zita KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3587% → 89%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.1%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.0%
Jamyest Williams run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+16
86.9%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 16 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
87.3%
QB Keeper GRAINGER, Darren rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the GSU48 (TURNER, B.J.). PENALTY Before the snap, CLT Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the end of the play at the GSU48 to the CLT47 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
87.4%
Jamyest Williams run for 13 yds to the Charl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
88.5%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 34 yds for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4DOWNS
16 plays · 72 yds · 4:1212% → 13%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 7 yds to the Charl 32Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
87.8%
ChaVon McEachern run for 6 yds to the Charl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
87.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Henry Rutledge for 16 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
87.6%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
87.2%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+30
87.2%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 30 yds to the GeoSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
86.9%
ChaVon McEachern run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
86.7%
ChaVon McEachern run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
86.5%
REYNOLDS, Chris pass to the right incomplete intended for DUBOSE, Grant thrown to the GSU0. PENALTY GSU Roughing the Passer on CARROLL, Blake enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the GSU5 to the GSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
86.6%
Shadrick Byrd run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
86.5%
Shadrick Byrd run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
86.9%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
87.1%
Shadrick Byrd run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q1 2:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
87.0%
Shadrick Byrd run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5FUMBLE RETURN TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:1987% → 85%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
87.3%
Tucker Gregg run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 9Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+2
87.3%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+33
87.1%
Darren Grainger run for 33 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
87.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 9 yds to the Charl 47Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+4
87.9%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 4 yds to the Charl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+4
87.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 4 yds to the Charl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+52
85.2%
Markees Watts 52 Yd Fumble Return (Antonio Zita Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:1384% → 84%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.3%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
84.3%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 11 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
84.7%
Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
84.1%
Darren Grainger pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:5418% → 19%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
81.8%
ChaVon McEachern run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
81.6%
Chris Reynolds pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
81.1%
Chris Reynolds pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4583% → 82%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
83.3%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 10Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+1
83.3%
Darren Grainger run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q2 11:12
4TH & 9
OWN 8
0
81.8%
HAYES, Michael punt 49 yards to the CLT43, DUBOSE, Grant return 0 yards to the CLT43 (COOPER, Ronald), clock 11:12. PENALTY Before the snap, GSU Illegal Formation enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the GSU8 to the GSU4. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:12
4TH & 13
OWN 4
+13
81.8%
Michael Hayes punt for 52 yds , Steven Parker returns for 13 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q2 10:58
4TH & 13
OWN 4
+13
81.7%
Michael Hayes punt for 52 yds , Steven Parker returns for 13 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 1:5419% → 27%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+28
80.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Henry Rutledge for 28 yds to the GeoSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
80.1%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
80.1%
ChaVon McEachern run for no gain to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+13
80.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 13 yds to the GeoSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 2 yds for a TD, (Antonio Zita KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3575% → 82%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
75.3%
Jamyest Williams run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
75.4%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+73
75.1%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 73 yds to the Charl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
77.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the Charl 2Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.7%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Hayes PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:5022% → 23%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
78.2%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 16 yds to the Charl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
77.0%
ChaVon McEachern run for 8 yds to the Charl 49Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 2
OWN 49
-15
76.6%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Charl 34Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 17
OWN 34
+10
79.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Eugene Minter Jr. for 10 yds to the Charl 44Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 17
OWN 34
+10
77.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Eugene Minter Jr. for 10 yds to the Charl 44Similar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
77.2%
Bailey Rice punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 19Similar
Q2 5:39
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
77.0%
Bailey Rice punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:2078% → 76%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
78.2%
Jamyest Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+15
78.0%
GRAINGER, Darren pass to the left incomplete intended for LEWIS, Robert broken up by ROGERS, Solomon at the CLT40. PENALTY CLT Pass Interference on ROGERS, Solomon enforced 15 yards to the GSU33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
78.4%
Jamyest Williams run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+12
79.3%
Tucker Gregg run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-7
79.9%
Darren Grainger sacked by Amir Siddiq for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 17
OWN 41
+4
78.5%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 4 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 13
OWN 45
0
77.8%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:39
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
77.3%
Michael Hayes punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Grant DuBose at the Charl 14Similar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
75.8%
Michael Hayes punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Grant DuBose at the Charl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · -7 yds · 2:0025% → 24%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
75.2%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Eugene Minter Jr. for 3 yds to the Charl 17Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 7
OWN 17
-5
75.3%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, False Start (Matt Rosso) to the Charl 12Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 12
OWN 12
-2
75.5%
Shadrick Byrd run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 10Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 12
OWN 12
-2
75.2%
Shadrick Byrd run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 10Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 14
OWN 10
-3
75.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Henry Rutledge for a loss of 3 yards to the Charl 7Similar
Q2 1:30
4TH & 17
OWN 7
0
76.5%
Bailey Rice punt for 41 yds, downed at the Charl 48Similar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 17
OWN 7
0
76.4%
Bailey Rice punt for 41 yds, downed at the Charl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 10 yds · 1:1976% → 74%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
76.0%
Marcus Carroll run for 10 yds to the Charl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
76.1%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the Charl 35Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
77.2%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+2
75.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the Charl 33Similar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 5
OPP 33
-5
74.6%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Charl 38Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 5
OPP 33
-5
75.1%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Charl 38Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
73.5%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
73.5%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:5027% → 46%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
73.2%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Henry Rutledge for 16 yds to the Charl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
71.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 10 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
70.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Shadrick Byrd for 16 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+26
70.2%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Nolan Groulx for 26 yds to the GeoSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
53.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 7 yds for a TD, (Antonio Zita KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4258% → 74%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
58.4%
Tucker Gregg run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
60.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
58.9%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 10 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
60.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
60.6%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+11
58.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 11 yds to the Charl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+21
62.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 21 yds to the Charl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
63.5%
Tucker Gregg run for 8 yds to the Charl 14Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+4
63.5%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the Charl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
63.5%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Kris Byrd for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 11Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
63.5%
Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the Charl 6Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
73.5%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Kris Byrd for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17DOWNS
11 plays · 48 yds · 4:5431% → 37%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
68.8%
ChaVon McEachern run for 4 yds to the Charl 27Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+5
68.1%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 5 yds to the Charl 32Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+13
68.1%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Nolan Groulx for 13 yds to the Charl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
66.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 17 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
65.8%
ChaVon McEachern run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
64.4%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 6 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 1
OPP 29
0
65.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for no gain to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 1
OPP 29
0
61.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for no gain to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 3:43
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
63.7%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
63.5%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5068% → 66%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
68.1%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 6 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+2
70.2%
Jamyest Williams run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+1
69.4%
Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
68.9%
Michael Hayes punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Grant DuBose at the Charl 19Similar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
66.4%
Michael Hayes punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Grant DuBose at the Charl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 1:5436% → 68%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
63.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 13 yds to the Charl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
62.6%
Shadrick Byrd run for 13 yds to the Charl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
60.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 24 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
57.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 24 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
31.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Henry Rutledge for 31 yds for a TD, (Antonio Zita KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 3:5039% → 61%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
39.4%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 7 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
42.0%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
39.4%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 7 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
34.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 7 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
36.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+4
39.0%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
38.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
50
0
39.8%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 10
50
+36
38.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 36 yds to the Charl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 10
50
+36
33.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 36 yds to the Charl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
37.9%
CARROLL, Marcus rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the CLT13 (JACKSON, Miguel). PENALTY CLT Offsides on HOLLEY, Jalar enforced 5 yards from the CLT14 to the CLT9 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 5
OPP 9
-1
37.9%
Marcus Carroll run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 10Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+6
37.9%
Darren Grainger run for 6 yds to the Charl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
37.9%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, Offsides (Jalar Holley) to the Charl 2Similar
Q4 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
61.1%
Tucker Gregg 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:2852% → 54%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
47.6%
ChaVon McEachern run for 11 yds to the Charl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
45.2%
ChaVon McEachern run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 2
OPP 46
0
43.5%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
44.6%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:32
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
45.9%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:32
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
45.9%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:4858% → 50%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
57.9%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
55.1%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the Charl 49Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+6
57.1%
Marcus Carroll run for 6 yds to the Charl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
59.1%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Charl 48Similar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 15
OPP 48
0
55.9%
Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the Charl 48Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 15
OPP 48
-9
55.3%
run for a loss of 9 yards to the GeoSt 43 fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Marcus CarrollSimilar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 24
OWN 43
+19
51.2%
Darren Grainger run for 19 yds to the Charl 38Similar
Q4 6:44
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
49.8%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:2360% → 64%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
40.1%
ChaVon McEachern run for 1 yd to the Charl 39Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-11
40.4%
Chris Reynolds sacked by Shamar McCollum for a loss of 11 yards to the Charl 28Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 20
OWN 28
+10
45.9%
Shadrick Byrd run for 10 yds to the Charl 38Similar
Q4 6:44
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
46.1%
Bailey Rice punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jamyest Williams at the GeoSt 26Similar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
36.1%
Bailey Rice punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jamyest Williams at the GeoSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 2:4241% → 96%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
40.7%
Marcus Carroll run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+11
43.5%
Marcus Carroll run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
44.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+4
45.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 4 yds to the Charl 47Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+5
45.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the Charl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
47.0%
Tucker Gregg run for 8 yds to the Charl 34Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+2
49.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the Charl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+2
45.1%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the Charl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
96.1%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 32 yds for a TD GEORGIA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jamari Thrash) to the Charl 0, (D. Grainger Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 25TD
17 plays · 69 yds · 1:1616% → 89%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
84.1%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+12
85.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 12 yds to the Charl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
82.5%
Chris Reynolds run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+25
77.1%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 25 yds to the GeoSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
70.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Nolan Groulx for 8 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+14
70.9%
REYNOLDS, Chris pass to the left incomplete intended for DUBOSE, Grant broken up by JONES, Jaylon at the GSU0. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on JONES, Jaylon enforced at the spot of the foul for 14 yards to the GSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
71.6%
ChaVon McEachern run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
79.9%
Chris Reynolds run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+25
75.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 25 yds to the GeoSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
72.7%
ChaVon McEachern run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
74.1%
ChaVon McEachern run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
76.2%
ChaVon McEachern run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
10.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 2 yds for a TD, (Antonio Zita KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 43 yds · 0:1730% → 13%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.6%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
28.9%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) ( Yards) to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
22.5%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) ( Yards) to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+15
16.7%
GRAINGER, Darren pass to the right incomplete intended for THOMPSON, Cadarrius broken up by WARDLOW, Kofi at the CLT48. PENALTY CLT Roughing the Passer on SMITH, Darion enforced 15 yards from the GSU13 to the GSU28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+40
16.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 40 yds to the Charl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+40
13.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 40 yds to the Charl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:17
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 2 yds for a TD, (Antonio Zita KICK)
-65.3
TD · Q4 1:39
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 32 yds for a TD GEORGIA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jamari Thrash) to the Charl 0, (D. Grainger Run For Two-point Conversion)
+51
TD · Q4 14:50
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Henry Rutledge for 31 yds for a TD, (Antonio Zita KICK)
-25.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com