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ARST

Arkansas State 13 at Texas State 16

TXST
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:44 · Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds , Johnnie Lang returns for no gain to the ArkSt 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 70Pregame prior+6.9Home team on offense+1.9Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 12:25: Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +25.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 3:17: Seth Keller 49 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +20.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:09: Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the TexSt 40 — ARST win probability +21.4 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 0:31: Dominic Zvada 23 yd FG GOOD — ARST win probability +27.1 pts (now 56%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:02: Seth Keller 29 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +26.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 11ARST made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 9:14TXST 4th & 3 at ARST 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.6%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    65.8%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:06ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:20TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 25, up 3
    Close callPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:03ARST 4th & 7 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:30TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 28, up 3
    Close callPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:34ARST 4th & 13 at ARST 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:08TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 29, up 3
    Close callPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:16ARST 4th & 4 at TXST 47, down 3
    Close callPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:15TXST 4th & 2 at ARST 44, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    65.4%−2.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:17ARST 4th & 5 at TXST 34, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.6%−0.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    32.4%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:44TXST 4th & 13 at TXST 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−2.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:05ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:18TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 47, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:17ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:48TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 19, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:05ARST 4th & 2 at TXST 38, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.8%−3.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    48.8%−3.7
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:22TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−2.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:44ARST 4th & 13 at ARST 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−4.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:02ARST 4th & 6 at TXST 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    45.4%−2.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−4.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:02ARST 4th & 6 at TXST 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    45.4%−2.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−4.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:34TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.0%−5.6
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:17TXST 4th & 1 at ARST 32, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 9.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.5%−9.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−15.8
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:09ARST 4th & 9 at TXST 40, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.2%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    25.5%
    34% to make
    Punt
    20.5%−5.0
    average punt
  24. Q4 0:31ARST 4th & 5 at TXST 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−6.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−30.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 0:24ARST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 12:25TXST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 5:4063% → 64%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
63.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+6
63.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 6 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+1
63.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
63.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 4 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+11
63.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 11 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+17
63.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 17 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
63.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+19
63.1%
Josh Berry run for 19 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
63.1%
Josh Berry run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
63.1%
Josh Berry run for no gain to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+3
63.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Titus Lyons for 3 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q1 9:14
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
63.7%
Seth Keller 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:0237% → 36%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
63.5%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+6
63.6%
Johnnie Lang run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 17
OWN 23
+10
63.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 10 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
64.2%
William Przystup punt for 48 yds , Rontavius Groves returns for no gain to the TexSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4663% → 63%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
63.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Charles BrownSimilar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+8
63.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 8 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 2
OWN 25
0
63.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Donnovan MoorerSimilar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 2
OWN 25
0
62.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:1737% → 36%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
63.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Brian SneadSimilar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+10
63.6%
Brian Snead run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
63.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Reed Tyler for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 7
50
+5
62.9%
Johnnie Lang run for 5 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 2
OPP 45
0
63.0%
Brian Snead run for no gain to the TexSt 45Similar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 2
OPP 45
-5
63.4%
PENALTY ASU Delay Of Game (Hanson,Ryan) 5 yards from TXST45 to TXST50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:03
4TH & 7
50
0
63.9%
Ryan Hanson punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3364% → 63%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
63.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
63.5%
Josh Berry run for 5 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
63.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Drue JacksonSimilar
Q1 1:30
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+2
62.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds , Johnnie Lang returns for 2 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5637% → 35%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
63.3%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
63.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 3 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 13
OWN 32
0
64.2%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Seydou TraoreSimilar
Q1 0:34
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
64.7%
Ryan Hanson punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 22 , Rontavius Groves returns for no gain to the TexSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5263% → 62%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
63.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+6
63.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
63.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Charles BrownSimilar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
62.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:5237% → 37%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
63.5%
Brian Snead run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+18
63.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 18 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
62.3%
Brian Snead run for 6 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+3
61.9%
Brian Snead run for 3 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
62.1%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
63.0%
Ryan Hanson punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 51 yds · 5:0163% → 65%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
63.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 7Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+13
63.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 13 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
63.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+18
63.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 18 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
64.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Charles BrownSimilar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
63.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 9 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
64.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
64.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 6 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+1
65.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+1
64.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
65.1%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang at the ArkSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10MISSED FG
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:5836% → 37%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
64.4%
Johnnie Lang run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 10
0
64.3%
Johnnie Lang run for no gain to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+22
62.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 22 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
61.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Reed Tyler for 5 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
60.6%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Seydou TraoreSimilar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
61.9%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Seydou TraoreSimilar
Q2 3:17
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+51
63.5%
Dominic Zvada 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3365% → 62%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
64.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Austin Groeschel for a 2 yard loss to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 12
OWN 32
-1
64.4%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Melique Straker for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 31Similar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 13
OWN 31
0
62.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Drue JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 13
OWN 31
0
61.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds , Johnnie Lang returns for no gain to the ArkSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 1:2037% → 52%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
63.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 6 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+6
62.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 6 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
61.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 17 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
60.0%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
60.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 8 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+3
59.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 3 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
58.7%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Daverrick JenkinsSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
58.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Daverrick Jenkins for 7 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+26
47.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 26 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13END OF HALF
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:1654% → 58%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
54.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Drue JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
53.9%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
50
+4
57.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 4 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-3
57.6%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Tim Hardiman for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5049% → 47%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
51.0%
Johnnie Lang run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
51.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
52.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Te'Vailance HuntSimilar
Q3 14:05
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
53.2%
Ryan Hanson punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:4753% → 53%
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
53.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 13 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
54.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+6
55.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q3 14:05
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
55.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
53.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang at the ArkSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:0149% → 48%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
51.0%
Johnnie Lang run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+33
51.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 33 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
48.3%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 11
OWN 48
0
49.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Te'Vailance HuntSimilar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
50.3%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Brian SneadSimilar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
51.7%
Ryan Hanson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Rontavius Groves at the TexSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2951% → 48%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
51.0%
Josh Berry run for no gain to the TexSt 11Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
50.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Josh BerrySimilar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+8
49.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Titus Lyons for 8 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q3 8:48
4TH & 2
OWN 19
0
48.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang at the ArkSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:4353% → 63%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
47.1%
Johnnie Lang run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 4
50
+4
46.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 4 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
46.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 8 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 2
OPP 38
0
46.0%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 2
OPP 38
0
46.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Daverrick JenkinsSimilar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+56
37.0%
Dominic Zvada 56 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:3541% → 37%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
41.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
40.8%
Josh Berry run for 5 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+7
40.5%
Layne Hatcher run for 7 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
42.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Dennis RobinsonSimilar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-6
42.2%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Melique Straker for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 16
OWN 33
+8
39.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 8 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 4:22
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
36.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang at the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3866% → 64%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
34.3%
Brian Snead run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
34.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 2 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
34.3%
James Blackman sacked by Brian Holloway for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q3 2:44
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+1
35.9%
Ryan Hanson punt for 45 yds , Rontavius Groves returns for 1 yd to the TexSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 5:1938% → 65%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
37.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+5
38.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 5 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+13
39.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Drue Jackson for 13 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
42.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Tyler Huff for 1 yd to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+17
38.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 17 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
40.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Donnovan MoorerSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
39.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Chandler Speights for 9 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+4
38.0%
Josh Berry run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
40.1%
Josh Berry run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+10
40.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Josh Berry for 10 yds to the ArkSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
65.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:1846% → 50%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
53.9%
Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+18
53.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Daverrick Jenkins for 18 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
49.6%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+16
48.9%
Johnnie Lang run for 16 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
47.5%
Johnnie Lang run for 4 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
45.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Marcel Murray for no gain to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
48.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Daverrick JenkinsSimilar
Q4 9:02
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
50.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
Q4 9:02
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
50.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Jeff ForemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23FG
12 plays · 33 yds · 5:4559% → 83%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
58.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
58.2%
Josh Berry run for 3 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+6
58.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Drue Jackson for 6 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
59.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
63.0%
Layne Hatcher run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+3
64.3%
Josh Berry run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+4
63.3%
Josh Berry run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
64.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 5 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+1
64.3%
Josh Berry run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+5
63.1%
Josh Berry run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+49
83.0%
Seth Keller 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24FG
10 plays · 36 yds · 2:3838% → 56%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
61.6%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
61.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
62.7%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Te'Vailance HuntSimilar
Q4 3:09
4TH & 9
OPP 40
+31
67.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Daverrick Jenkins for 31 yds to the TexSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
58.1%
Johnnie Lang run for 5 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
58.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 1 yd to the TexSt 5Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
60.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Johnnie LangSimilar
Q4 0:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
43.6%
Dominic Zvada 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25FG
8 plays · 56 yds · 0:2458% → 96%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
58.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 3 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+21
61.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Drue Jackson for 21 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+21
67.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 21 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Ethan Hassler) to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
70.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+29
96.2%
Seth Keller 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:31
Dominic Zvada 23 yd FG GOOD
-27.1
FG · Q4 0:02
Seth Keller 29 yd FG GOOD
+26.1
TD · Q4 12:25
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)
+25
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com