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GAST

Georgia State 40 at James Madison 42

JMU
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · Bridgeforth Stadium
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Win probability · JMU
modelJMU aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playJMU scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:48 · Sam Clark punt for 55 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Pregame prior+6.4Home team on offense−6.9Score differential−2.6Garbage-time factor−4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Blowout margin−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:16: Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 75 yds for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK) — GAST win probability +21.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:32: Percy Agyei-Obese run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +15.0 pts (now 45%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:45: Percy Agyei-Obese run for 36 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +21.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:02: Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 16 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +17.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:30: Darren Grainger 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — GAST win probability +16.0 pts (now 25%) (top driver: GAST hurrying with no timeouts left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
JMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5GAST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 14:13GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:17JMU 4th & 2 at JMU 32, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:59GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:25GAST 4th & 11 at JMU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:04JMU 4th & 16 at JMU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:10GAST 4th & 4 at JMU 4, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.8%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:02GAST 4th & 11 at GAST 24, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−3.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:05JMU 4th & 12 at JMU 44, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−1.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:33GAST 4th & 19 at GAST 11, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−6.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:11GAST 4th & 14 at GAST 21, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−5.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:48JMU 4th & 11 at JMU 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−2.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:00GAST 4th & 12 at GAST 23, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−5.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:15JMU 4th & 5 at GAST 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    67.2%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−11.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:47GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 27, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:58GAST 4th & 3 at JMU 27, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    10.2%−0.7
    62% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−6.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:22JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:09GAST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:12GAST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:26GAST Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:28JMU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:16GAST Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:32JMU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:18JMU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:45JMU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:02JMU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−1.0
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:30GAST Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    30.6%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    31.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4729% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.3%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.3%
Darren Grainger run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
71.3%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:13
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
71.2%
Michael Hayes punt for 46 yds, downed at the JMads 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5671% → 71%
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
71.2%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 3 yds to the JMads 27Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+6
71.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Devin Ravenel for 6 yds to the JMads 33Similar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 1
OWN 33
-1
71.2%
Todd Centeio run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMads 32Similar
Q1 12:17
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
70.8%
Sam Clark punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1829% → 29%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
70.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+2
70.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
70.8%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
70.7%
Michael Hayes punt for 40 yds, downed at the JMads 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 5:3771% → 74%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
70.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Wayne Knight for 3 yds to the JMads 26Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+6
70.7%
Kaelon Black run for 6 yds to the JMads 32Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+13
70.7%
Kaelon Black run for 13 yds to the JMads 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
71.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kaelon Black for 3 yds to the JMads 48Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+6
71.0%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+4
71.0%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
71.1%
Kaelon Black run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+4
71.0%
Todd Centeio run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+10
71.0%
CENTEIO, Todd pass to the right incomplete intended for RAVENEL, Devin thrown to the GSU27. PENALTY GSU Holding on LANE, Antavious enforced 10 yards from the GSU39 to the GSU29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
71.2%
Latrele Palmer run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+26
73.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 26 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5FG
13 plays · 42 yds · 4:5727% → 30%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
72.5%
Tucker Gregg run for no gain to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+16
72.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tucker Gregg for 16 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
72.1%
Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+10
72.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 10 yds to the JMads 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
71.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the JMads 41Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
71.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the JMads 39Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+7
71.9%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 7 yds to the JMads 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
71.4%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
71.4%
Darren Grainger run for no gain to the JMads 32Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 10
OPP 32
-1
71.4%
Darren Grainger sacked by Jalen Green for a loss of 1 yard to the JMads 33Similar
Q1 0:25
4TH & 11
OPP 33
+51
69.9%
Michael Hayes 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 6FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · -16 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
66.5%
Javon Denis 21 Yd Fumble Return (Michael Hayes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:5666% → 64%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
65.9%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 9 yds to the JMads 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
66.9%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 2 yds to the JMads 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
66.2%
Latrele Palmer run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMads 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 30
-5
65.8%
JMU Penalty, False Start (Tyshawn Wyatt) to the JMads 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 25
+5
65.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Latrele Palmer for 5 yds to the JMads 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 30
-5
65.3%
Todd Centeio sacked by Javon Denis for a loss of 5 yards to the JMads 25Similar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 16
OWN 25
+2
63.6%
Sam Clark punt for 45 yds , Tailique Williams returns for 2 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:5236% → 44%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+39
64.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 39 yds to the JMads 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
62.4%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the JMads 28Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
62.6%
Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the JMads 28Similar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+28
55.9%
Darren Grainger run for 28 yds for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:0145% → 49%
Q2 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
55.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd to the JMads 4Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
55.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd to the JMads 3Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
55.7%
Marcus Carroll run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMads 4Similar
Q2 8:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
51.2%
Michael Hayes 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 10FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:4051% → 40%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
51.2%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 3 yds to the JMads 27Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+32
39.9%
Terrell Gordon 32 Yd Fumble Return (Michael Hayes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 11TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:5840% → 47%
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
39.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Devin Ravenel for 15 yds to the JMads 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
41.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Zach Horton for 23 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
42.0%
BLACK, Kaelon rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the GSU33 (WHITE, Quavian;ABRAHAM, Justin). PENALTY Before the snap, JMU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the GSU37 to the GSU42. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:26
1ST & 15
OPP 42
-3
41.5%
Kaelon Black run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 18
OPP 45
+18
37.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 18 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
39.1%
Kaelon Black run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
40.5%
Latrele Palmer run for no gain to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+9
39.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Devin Ravenel for 9 yds to the GeoSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
40.5%
Latrele Palmer run for no gain to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+14
40.5%
CENTEIO, Todd pass up the middle incomplete intended for RAVENEL, Devin thrown to the GSU0. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on CRAWFORD, Jacorey enforced 14 yards to the GSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
40.8%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
38.0%
QB Keeper CENTEIO, Todd rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the GSU0, TOUCHDOWN JMU, score nullified by penalty, clock 02:17 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY JMU Holding on HORTON, Zach enforced 10 yards from the GSU3 to the GSU13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+9
37.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Zach Horton for 9 yds to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
47.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Devin Ravenel for 4 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
26.0%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 75 yds for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 1:1632% → 30%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kaelon Black for no gain to the JMads 25Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
29.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Devin Ravenel for 1 yd to the JMads 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2829% → 45%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
29.1%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 4 yds to the JMads 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
29.2%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 8 yds to the JMads 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+62
30.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Terrance Greene Jr. for 62 yds to the GeoSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.1%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3062% → 63%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.6%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-4
38.2%
Darren Grainger sacked by Jamree Kromah for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
36.6%
Michael Hayes punt for 43 yds , returns for no gain to the JMads 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:5739% → 36%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
39.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kaelon Black for 8 yds to the JMads 31Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+15
40.3%
Kaelon Black run for 15 yds to the JMads 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
40.8%
Kaelon Black run for 3 yds to the JMads 49Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-5
41.3%
JMU Penalty, False Start (Tanner Morris) to the JMads 44Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 12
OWN 44
0
40.0%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 12
OWN 44
0
38.7%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
36.2%
Sam Clark punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:3268% → 68%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
32.5%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
32.5%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-10
33.3%
Darren Grainger sacked by Jamree Kromah and Isaac Ukwu for a loss of 10 yards to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 19
OWN 11
0
32.0%
Michael Hayes punt for 25 yds, downed at the GeoSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 18TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 2:1536% → 54%
Q3 8:33
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+23
35.7%
Todd Centeio run for 23 yds to the GeoSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
39.4%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
37.6%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 8
OPP 34
-5
39.1%
Todd Centeio sacked by Shamar McCollum for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+15
53.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kaelon Black for 15 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0756% → 56%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
43.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
43.7%
Tucker Gregg run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+3
45.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tucker Gregg for 3 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-5
44.2%
HAYES, Michael punt 47 yards to the JMU27 downed by BERNSTEIN, Jack, clock 04:21. PENALTY Before the snap, GSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the GSU26 to the GSU21. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:11
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+1
44.4%
Michael Hayes punt for 34 yds , Devyn Coles returns for 1 yd to the JMads 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2349% → 43%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
49.3%
Todd Centeio run for a loss of 4 yards to the JMads 42 Todd Centeio fumbled, recovered by JMads Todd CenteioSimilar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+3
46.5%
Latrele Palmer run for 3 yds to the JMads 45Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
45.9%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:48
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
42.7%
Sam Clark punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21FUMBLE
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:4860% → 61%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
40.4%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+14
38.7%
Darren Grainger run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 36 Darren Grainger fumbled, recovered by JMads Devyn ColesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 22TD
2 plays · 36 yds · 0:1549% → 71%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
49.4%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+36
70.6%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 36 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4534% → 32%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
65.7%
Darren Grainger sacked by Devyn Coles for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
66.1%
Darren Grainger run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
67.6%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+39
68.5%
Michael Hayes punt for 39 yds , Josh Sarratt returns for a loss of 1 yard to the JMads 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 24TD
14 plays · 63 yds · 4:5868% → 89%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
67.6%
Kris Thornton run for 11 yds to the JMads 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
69.9%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
70.6%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for no gain to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+19
69.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Terrance Greene Jr. for 19 yds to the GeoSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
71.7%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
71.2%
Latrele Palmer run for no gain to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
69.3%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:15
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+5
64.8%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q4 12:15
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+6
66.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Drew Painter for 6 yds to the GeoSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
71.3%
JMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 23Similar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+8
71.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 8 yds to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 7
OPP 15
-1
71.3%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+16
88.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 16 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0913% → 11%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
86.9%
Darren Grainger sacked by Isaac Ukwu for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+1
87.4%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+11
88.1%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 11 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q4 7:47
4TH & 3
OWN 27
-6
88.6%
Michael Hayes punt for 46 yds , Josh Sarratt returns for a loss of 6 yards to the JMads 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 26FUMBLE
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:3789% → 92%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
89.2%
Todd Centeio run for 6 yds to the JMads 27Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 4
OWN 27
0
89.4%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for no gain to the JMads 27Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+18
90.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Drew Painter for 18 yds to the JMads 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
92.4%
run for no gain to the JMads 45 fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Tre MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 27TD
11 plays · 45 yds · 3:4014% → 25%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
86.1%
Marcus Carroll run for 7 yds to the JMads 38Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+4
85.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 4 yds to the JMads 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
84.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the JMads 31Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+3
87.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the JMads 28Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+1
91.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the JMads 27Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+15
93.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 15 yds to the JMads 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
90.7%
Marcus Carroll run for 11 yds to the JMads 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
90.8%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (Malik Sumter) to the JMads 6Similar
Q4 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
74.7%
Darren Grainger 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
5 plays · 12 yds · 2:2983% → 96%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
82.9%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+2
90.2%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+10
89.6%
Todd Centeio run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
95.8%
[NHSG] Kneel down by JMU at GSU35 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:45
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 36 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)
+21.1
TD · Q2 1:16
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 75 yds for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK)
-21
TD · Q4 10:02
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 16 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)
+17.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com