2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadJMU aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreJMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:03 · Sam Clark punt for 42 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:49: Todd Centeio run for 6 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +5.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 4:13: Camden Wise 33 yd FG GOOD — JMU win probability +3.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:05: Ethan Sanchez 29 yd FG GOOD — ODU win probability +1.7 pts (now 23%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 8:20: Camden Wise 21 yd FG GOOD — JMU win probability +4.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:47: Jailin Walker 29 Yd Interception Return (Camden Wise Kick) — JMU win probability +9.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9JMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 13:51ODU 4th & 3 at ODU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snapGo for it32.8%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.8%average punt
- Q1 6:12ODU 4th & 1 at midfield, down 7Close callPunted · 33.4% before the snapGo for it33.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.9%−0.6average punt
- Q1 1:03JMU 4th & 19 at JMU 34, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snapGo for it65.8%−1.511% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.3%average punt
- Q2 14:48ODU 4th & 16 at ODU 18, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snapGo for it31.0%−1.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.4%average punt
- Q2 13:44ODU 4th & 3 at JMU 46, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call29.0%52% to convertField goal27.7%−1.323% to makePunt28.5%−0.5average punt
- Q2 7:42ODU 4th & 20 at JMU 34, down 14Close callWent for it · 24.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.8%−0.710% to convertField goal24.6%47% to makePunt24.2%−0.3average punt
- Q2 4:13JMU 4th & 16 at ODU 16, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.6% before the snapGo for it74.6%−1.814% to convertField goalTheir call76.5%81% to makePunt70.8%−5.6average punt
- Q2 2:59ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 34, down 17Close callPunted · 21.0% before the snapGo for it21.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.7%−0.9average punt
- Q2 0:05ODU 4th & 3 at JMU 12, down 17Close callKicked a field goal · 20.4% before the snapGo for it20.5%50% to convertField goalTheir call20.1%−0.486% to makePunt15.9%−4.6average punt
- Q3 8:20JMU 4th & 3 at ODU 4, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 84.0% before the snapGo for it84.2%45% to convertField goalTheir call83.2%−1.093% to makePunt76.4%−7.7average punt
- Q3 4:34ODU 4th & 16 at ODU 29, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snapGo for it4.1%−1.015% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.0%average punt
- Q3 4:34JMU 4th & 1 at ODU 30, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.0%71% to convertField goal95.4%−0.656% to makePunt95.0%−1.0average punt
- Q3 0:26JMU 4th & 8 at ODU 27, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snapGo for it96.9%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call96.9%62% to makePunt96.2%−0.7average punt
- Q4 3:45ODU 4th & 8 at ODU 27, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 1:23JMU 4th & 8 at JMU 23, up 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 8:11JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.3%97% to makeGo for two66.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:49JMU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.3%97% to makeGo for two71.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:47JMU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.3%97% to makeGo for two95.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:47JMU Touchdown, up 33 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartODUDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0935% → 35%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
34.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ahmarian Granger for 3 yds to the ODU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 2TD12 plays · 82 yds · 5:4065% → 66%
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+14
35.2%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 14 yds to the JMads 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+25
35.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 25 yds to the ODU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+11
35.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kaelon Black for 11 yds to the ODU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
35.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 7 yds to the ODU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 25 yds · 1:5935% → 35%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
34.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Watson for 16 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 4PUNT10 plays · 29 yds · 5:0965% → 65%
Q1 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+27
34.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Drew Painter for 27 yds to the JMads 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
34.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 5 yds to the JMads 37Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+3
34.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kaelon Black for 3 yds to the JMads 40Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+5
34.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kaelon Black for 5 yds to the ODU 49Similar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 2
OPP 49
-10
34.1%
BLACK, Kaelon rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the ODU47 (HAWKINS, Tre). PENALTY JMU Holding on PAINTER, Drew enforced 10 yards from the ODU49 to the JMU41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1535% → 34%
JMUDrive 6TD3 plays · 55 yds · 0:5967% → 73%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+46
33.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 46 yds to the ODU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7DOWNS14 plays · 63 yds · 6:0229% → 26%
Q2 13:44
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+23
28.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ahmarian Granger for 23 yds to the ODU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 18
OPP 32
-2
29.9%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Jamree Kromah for a loss of 2 yards to the JMads 34Similar
Q2 7:42
4TH & 20
OPP 34
+19
25.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Javon Harvey for 19 yds to the JMads 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 8FG8 plays · 69 yds · 3:2974% → 80%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
25.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Drew Painter for 6 yds to the JMads 21Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+48
25.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 48 yds to the ODU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+23
24.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Zach Horton for 23 yds to the ODU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
23.4%
Todd Centeio run for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 12 Todd Centeio fumbled, recovered by JMads Todd CenteioSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1422% → 22%
JMUDrive 10FUMBLE5 plays · 12 yds · 1:3781% → 77%
Q2 1:22
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
15.9%
Billy Atkins pass intercepted fumbled, recovered by ODU Jason HendersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11FG9 plays · 19 yds · 1:1723% → 23%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+6
22.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Watson for 6 yds to the JMads 30Similar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
21.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Keshawn Wicks for 4 yds to the JMads 15Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+3
21.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Watson for 3 yds to the JMads 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 13FUMBLE2 plays · 9 yds · 1:0179% → 79%
JMUDrive 14FG12 plays · 56 yds · 5:3280% → 86%
Q3 12:58
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-10
18.5%
JMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kris Thornton) to the ODU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+9
18.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 9 yds to the ODU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
17.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Drew Painter for 16 yds to the ODU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-8
17.7%
Todd Centeio sacked by Marcus Haynes for a loss of 8 yards to the ODU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15INT TD2 plays · 5 yds · 0:3316% → 6%
ODUDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 3:066% → 5%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
6.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ahmarian Granger for 8 yds to the ODU 33Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-9
6.1%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Jamare Edwards for a loss of 9 yards to the ODU 25Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 20
OWN 25
+4
6.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Watson for 4 yds to the ODU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 17FG11 plays · 61 yds · 4:0897% → 99%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+32
3.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Wayne Knight for 32 yds to the JMads 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
2.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Terrance Greene Jr. for 9 yds to the ODU 47Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+8
2.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Terrance Greene Jr. for 8 yds to the ODU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 18INT7 plays · 45 yds · 1:572% → 2%
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
2.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 2 yds to the ODU 37Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
2.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Marqeese Dietz for 12 yds to the JMads 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+12
2.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Ahmarian Granger for 12 yds to the JMads 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 19TD14 plays · 91 yds · 7:4299% → 100%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 14
OWN 5
+10
0.7%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 10 yds to the JMads 16 Percy Agyei-Obese fumbled, recovered by JMads Drew PainterSimilar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+6
0.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Terrance Greene Jr. for 6 yds to the ODU 32Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 14
OPP 19
+18
0.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kaelon Black for 18 yds to the ODU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q4 5:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
0.1%
CLARK, Brendon scrambles up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the ODU36 (REIMONENQ, Jarius). PENALTY ODU Holding on BLACK, Xavier enforced 10 yards from the ODU30 to the ODU20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 2:22100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22INT7 plays · 34 yds · 1:020% → 0%
JMUDrive 23END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:47
Jailin Walker 29 Yd Interception Return (Camden Wise Kick)
-9.5
TD · Q2 13:49
Todd Centeio run for 6 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)
-5.3
FG · Q3 8:20
Camden Wise 21 yd FG GOOD
-4.5