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GAST

Georgia State 42 at Southern Miss 14

USM
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:23 · Mason Hunt punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tailique Williams at the GeoSt 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Home team on offense−37.9Score differential−22.5Garbage-time factor−9.1Pregame prior+3.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:27: Marcus Carroll run for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK) — GAST win probability +12.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:33: Marcus Carroll run for 18 yds for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK) — GAST win probability +8.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:44: Trey Lowe pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 7 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +10.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:17: Frank Gore Jr. run for 43 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +12.1 pts (now 21%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:25: Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK) — GAST win probability +11.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 9 of 12GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:26GAST 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.9%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:42USM 4th & 6 at GAST 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    57.0%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:08USM 4th & 12 at GAST 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:25GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:32USM 4th & 17 at USM 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:50USM 4th & 2 at USM 33, down 21
    Close callPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:44GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 46, up 21
    Close callPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:36USM 4th & 18 at USM 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:07GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 17, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:17USM 4th & 25 at USM 41, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00USM 4th & 1 at USM 34, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.7%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:23USM 4th & 8 at USM 38, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:04GAST 4th & 5 at USM 45, up 28
    Close callPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    95.3%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:04USM 4th & 14 at GAST 48, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:23USM 4th & 25 at USM 10, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−2.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:46USM 4th & 10 at USM 12, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:07GAST 4th & 24 at USM 44, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:03USM 4th & 6 at USM 22, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2GAST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 7:01GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:01GAST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:27GAST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:33GAST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:44USM Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:17USM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:25GAST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:16GAST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1DOWNS
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:3442% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+21
57.7%
Darren Grainger run for 21 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
57.7%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
57.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ahmon Green for 7 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+2
57.7%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 1
50
0
57.7%
Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4458% → 58%
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
50
+4
58.0%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Latreal Jones for 4 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
58.0%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
58.0%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:42
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
57.9%
Mason Hunt punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 5:4142% → 46%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
57.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-3
57.8%
Darren Grainger sacked by Jalen Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+15
58.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Roughing the Passer on CLEMONS, Jalil enforced (15 Yards) to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
57.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 6
50
+5
57.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+1
57.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
57.6%
Darren Grainger run for 17 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, Blocking Out Of Bounds on THRASH, Jamari enforced (Jamari Thrash) to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
57.6%
Darren Grainger run for 6 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+7
57.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 7 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
57.5%
Darren Grainger run for 6 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+5
57.5%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
57.5%
Marcus Carroll run for 14 yds to the SoMis 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
57.5%
Marcus Carroll run for 4 yds to the SoMis 1Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
57.5%
Darren Grainger run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 6 Darren Grainger fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Malik SumterSimilar
Q1 7:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
53.9%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:5355% → 54%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
54.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
55.0%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
54.6%
WILCKE, Zach pass to the right incomplete intended for BROWNLEE, Jason thrown to the USM35. PENALTY GSU Roughing the Passer on GORE, Thomas enforced 15 yards from the USM27 to the USM42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
55.5%
run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
55.9%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+2
55.5%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-2
55.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q1 4:08
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
53.5%
Mason Hunt punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4347% → 46%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
53.5%
Darren Grainger run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
53.5%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
53.9%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:25
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
54.0%
Michael Hayes punt for 42 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for no gain to the GeoSt 22 GEORGIA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the GeoSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6TD
4 plays · 51 yds · 1:2448% → 54%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
52.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 12 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
52.1%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ahmon Green for 8 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+21
51.9%
Darren Grainger run for 21 yds to the SoMis 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
46.3%
Tucker Gregg run for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2148% → 46%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
47.7%
QB Keeper WILCKE, Zach rush up the middle for a loss of 7 yards, WILCKE, Zach fumbled at USM19 , recovered by GSU DENIS, Javon at the USM18, returned 0 yards to the USM18, End of Play, clock 01:53. PENALTY GSU Holding enforced 10 yards from the USM25 to the USM35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
48.0%
run for 1 yd to the SoMis 36Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
47.9%
Frank Gore Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-8
47.7%
Zach Wilcke sacked by Jamil Muhammad and Jeffery Clark for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 28Similar
Q1 0:32
4TH & 17
OWN 28
0
46.2%
Mason Hunt punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tailique Williams at the GeoSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:0555% → 69%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
45.5%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+14
44.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 14 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
44.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Josh Ratcliff) to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
44.5%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+14
44.4%
Marcus Carroll run for 14 yds to the SoMis 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
31.5%
Marcus Carroll run for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3735% → 34%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
35.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
35.3%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
35.2%
Zach Wilcke run for 7 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
33.6%
Mason Hunt punt for 50 yds, downed at the GeoSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:0670% → 74%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
30.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 10 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
30.1%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
30.2%
Tucker Gregg run for no gain to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+12
30.8%
Darren Grainger run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
29.7%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+4
29.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Kris Byrd for 4 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
30.2%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
26.4%
Michael Hayes punt for 48 yds, downed at the SoMis 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:0829% → 27%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
29.0%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+19
28.9%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 19 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.5%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
29.2%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 24 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
31.1%
Antavious Willis run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 14
OWN 45
-1
30.1%
Zach Wilcke sacked by Tylon Dunlap for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 15
OWN 44
-3
29.7%
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 5:36
4TH & 18
OWN 41
0
27.4%
Mason Hunt punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tailique Williams at the GeoSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2977% → 79%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
22.7%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
22.8%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+3
23.4%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q2 4:07
4TH & 6
OWN 17
+4
21.0%
Michael Hayes punt for 53 yds , Tiaquelin Mims returns for 4 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:4626% → 27%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
25.9%
Jake Lange pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 7 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+10
27.1%
LANGE, Jake pass to the right incomplete intended for MIMS, Tiaquelin thrown to the GSU40. PENALTY GSU Holding on LANE, Antavious enforced 10 yards from the USM41 to the GSU49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
27.0%
Jake Lange pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 1:4881% → 89%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
18.9%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+31
19.0%
Marcus Carroll run for 31 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
19.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+14
19.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ahmon Green for 14 yds to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
10.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 18 yds for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 1:1616% → 5%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
16.4%
Jake Lange pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 17 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
7.2%
Jake Lange pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 6 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
6.5%
Jake Lange pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+8
6.4%
Jake Lange pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 8 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-9
7.6%
Jake Lange sacked by Thomas Gore for a loss of 9 yards to the SoMis 47Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 19
OWN 47
-6
6.7%
run for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 25
OWN 41
0
4.6%
Jake Lange pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 25
OWN 41
0
4.5%
Mason Hunt punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
7.5%
Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:377% → 5%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
7.2%
Chandler Pittman run for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
6.9%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+16
6.9%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 16 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
6.8%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
7.4%
run for 4 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+3
6.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-5
6.9%
Trey Lowe sacked by Javon Denis for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
5.3%
Mason Hunt punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tailique Williams at the GeoSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:1994% → 97%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
5.6%
Darren Grainger run for 15 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jay Stanley) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
50
0
4.6%
Darren Grainger run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
50
+5
4.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
4.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Kris Byrd for no gain to the SoMis 45Similar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
4.4%
Michael Hayes punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
2.8%
LOWE III, Trey pass to the right incomplete intended for JONES, Latreal thrown to the GSU45. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Jeremiah enforced 15 yards to the USM35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 2:203% → 12%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
2.8%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 21 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
3.0%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-5
2.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (Matt Ryals) to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+1
2.8%
Trey Lowe run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 14
OPP 48
0
2.7%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 14
OPP 48
+16
2.7%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 16 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+21
2.0%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 21 yds to the GeoSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
2.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
1.8%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
12.1%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 7 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20FUMBLE
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3593% → 94%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
6.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+3
6.4%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 3 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
6.2%
Darren Grainger sacked by Kristin Booth for a loss of 10 yards to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 20
OWN 35
0
6.7%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:09
3RD & 20
OWN 35
+3
5.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 3 yds Marcus Carroll fumbled, recovered by SoMis Natrone BrooksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21TD
2 plays · 38 yds · 0:528% → 21%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
8.4%
Trey Lowe sacked by Jeffery Clark and Javon Denis for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+43
20.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 43 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:5283% → 96%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+60
17.2%
Darren Grainger run for 60 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
15.1%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 9 yds to the SoMis 6Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+5
15.1%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the SoMis 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.7%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 2:026% → 4%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
5.5%
Trey Lowe sacked by Jeffery Clark for a loss of 9 yards to the SoMis 16Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+3
5.4%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 3 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-9
5.4%
Trey Lowe sacked by Jordan Veneziale for a loss of 9 yards to the SoMis 10Similar
Q3 0:23
4TH & 25
OWN 10
-4
4.4%
Mason Hunt punt for 44 yds , Tailique Williams returns for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 2:4497% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
3.3%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 3 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+7
3.3%
Marcus Carroll run for 7 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
3.2%
Marcus Carroll run for 13 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
3.1%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
3.1%
Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+30
0.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 30 yds for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:300% → 0%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
0.3%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 12
-5
0.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (John Bolding) to the SoMis 7Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 15
OWN 7
0
0.3%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 15
OWN 7
+5
0.3%
LOWE III, Trey pass to the left incomplete intended for JONES, Latreal thrown to the USM38. PENALTY GSU Offsides on MCCOLLUM, Shamar enforced 5 yards from the USM7 to the USM12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
0.3%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 10
OWN 12
0
0.2%
Mason Hunt punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tailique Williams at the GeoSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 3:3999% → 100%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
0.6%
Antoine Lane run for 8 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+13
0.5%
Mikele Colasurdo run for 13 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
0.5%
Antoine Lane run for no gain to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-5
0.6%
Antoine Lane run for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 15
OPP 35
-4
0.6%
Antoine Lane run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 39Similar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 19
OPP 39
-5
0.7%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jontrey Hunter) to the SoMis 44Similar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 24
OPP 44
0
0.4%
Kade Loggins punt for 42 yds, downed at the SoMis 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:040% → 0%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
0.1%
Antavious Willis run for 2 yds to the SoMis 4Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+14
0.1%
run for 14 yds to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
0.1%
Frank Gore Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+4
0.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
0.1%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:03
4TH & 6
OWN 22
0
0.1%
Mason Hunt punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Tailique Williams at the GeoSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 28END OF GAME
10 plays · 43 yds · 6:03100% → 100%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
0.2%
KZ Adams run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+3
0.2%
Antoine Lane run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+8
0.2%
Antoine Lane run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
0.2%
Antoine Lane run for 10 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
0.2%
Antoine Lane run for 2 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
0.2%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Targeting on KNIGHT, Tylan (Tylan Knight) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
0.2%
[NH] Kneel down by GSU at USM26 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 12
OPP 26
0
0.2%
[NH] Kneel down by GSU at USM28 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 28
0
0.1%
[NH] Kneel down by GSU at USM30 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:27
Marcus Carroll run for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK)
-12.9
TD · Q3 4:17
Frank Gore Jr. run for 43 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)
+12.1
TD · Q3 2:25
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK)
-11.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com