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USA

South Alabama 31 at Arkansas State 3

ARST
2022 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2022 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGSAFETYTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:05 · Ryan Hanson punt for 40 yds, downed at the SAlab 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Home team on offense−6.2Pregame prior−16.5Score differential−2.5Garbage-time factor−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:02: Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 49 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +3.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:11: James Blackman pass incomplete — ARST win probability +4.5 pts (now 25%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 11:31: La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the SAlab 43 — USA win probability +4.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:18: La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Carter Bradley pass to DJ Thomas-Jones for Two-Point Conversion) — USA win probability +13.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:34: La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +1.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 9 of 11USA made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 11:21ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:50USA 4th & 13 at USA 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:19USA 4th & 5 at USA 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:43ARST 4th & 16 at ARST 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:24ARST 4th & 11 at USA 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    23.6%−2.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:55USA 4th & 2 at USA 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.7%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:05ARST 4th & 19 at USA 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.8
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    26.8%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:15USA 4th & 7 at USA 34, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:34ARST 4th & 16 at ARST 13, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:52USA 4th & 16 at ARST 39, up 11
    Close callPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    74.3%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:11USA 4th & 12 at USA 48, up 13
    Numbers favored punt by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.5%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    77.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:38ARST 4th & 14 at USA 39, down 13
    Close callPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    23.1%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:19USA 4th & 7 at USA 5, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−4.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:31ARST 4th & 7 at USA 39, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    22.1%−0.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 11:31USA 4th & 1 at ARST 2, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.7%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    77.8%−2.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    70.0%−10.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:29ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 39, down 21
    Close callPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:36USA 4th & 1 at USA 15, up 21
    Close callPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:36ARST 4th & 3 at USA 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%−1.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−1.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:15ARST 4th & 21 at USA 49, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−1.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:44USA 4th & 6 at USA 16, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  21. Q4 11:23ARST 4th & 13 at USA 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  22. Q4 9:12USA 4th & 9 at USA 7, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  23. Q4 8:50USA 4th & 2 at ARST 44, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−0.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:46USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:02USA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:18USA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    90.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:34USA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1TD
5 plays · 84 yds · 2:0173% → 73%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+69
27.4%
La'Damian Webb run for 69 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
27.4%
Marco Lee run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+5
27.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 5 yds to the ArkSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
27.4%
La'Damian Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
27.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2528% → 28%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.7%
Johnnie Lang run for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
27.6%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+9
27.7%
William Przystup punt for 51 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 9 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3172% → 72%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
27.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 2 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
27.8%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the SAlab 32Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-5
27.9%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 13
OWN 27
0
28.0%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 13
OWN 27
+1
28.4%
Jack Brooks punt for 49 yds , Johnnie Lang returns for 1 yd to the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:0028% → 29%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
28.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 22 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
28.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+6
28.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 6 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
28.5%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3573% → 72%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
27.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
27.5%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+1
27.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 1 yd to the SAlab 46Similar
Q1 6:19
4TH & 5
OWN 46
+24
27.9%
Jack Brooks punt for 47 yds , Johnnie Lang returns for 24 yds to the ARST 30 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Holding (A.J. DeShazor Jr.) to the ArkSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:3629% → 28%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-11
28.7%
James Blackman sacked by Gi'Narious Johnson for a loss of 11 yards to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 21
OWN 30
0
28.1%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 21
OWN 30
+5
27.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 5 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 4:43
4TH & 16
OWN 35
0
27.7%
William Przystup punt for 19 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7TD
2 plays · 54 yds · 0:4173% → 76%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
27.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+49
24.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 49 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8FG
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:3826% → 27%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.5%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
25.5%
Johnnie Lang run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+14
25.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 14 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+42
26.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 42 yds to the SAlab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
26.5%
Johnnie Lang run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 14Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
26.5%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 11
OPP 14
0
26.2%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+32
26.9%
Dominic Zvada 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:2973% → 74%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
27.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
26.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 10 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
26.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+2
26.0%
Braylon McReynolds run for 2 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+2
26.1%
Braylon McReynolds run for 2 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q2 13:55
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
26.5%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 2:5028% → 26%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
27.6%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the SAlab 46Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+13
27.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 13 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-15
28.2%
LANG, Johnnie rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the USA32 (MILLER, James;KISER, Trey). PENALTY ASU Block below the waist on TRAORE, Seydou enforced 15 yards from the USA33 to the USA48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 25
OPP 48
0
27.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for no gain to the SAlab 48Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 25
OPP 48
+6
27.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 6 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 19
OPP 42
0
26.7%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 19
OPP 42
0
25.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 40 yds, downed at the SAlab 2Similar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
25.9%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the SAlab 1Similar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 11
OWN 1
0
25.9%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the SAlab 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:5074% → 75%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+3
25.9%
Marco Lee run for 3 yds to the SAlab 4Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+4
26.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 4 yds to the SAlab 8Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 4
OWN 8
0
26.3%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Jalen Wayne) to the SAlab 4Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 8
OWN 4
+9
26.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 9 yds to the SAlab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+18
25.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 18 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
25.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the SAlab 32Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
25.4%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+2
25.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Omni Wells for 2 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
25.5%
Jack Brooks punt for 47 yds, downed at the ArkSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:4124% → 23%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
24.2%
Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+4
24.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 4 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 2
OWN 27
-14
24.2%
James Blackman sacked for a loss of 14 yards to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q2 5:34
4TH & 16
OWN 13
0
23.1%
Ryan Hanson punt for 39 yds, downed at the SAlab 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:4276% → 77%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
23.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 19 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
23.5%
Omni Wells run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 11
OPP 34
-1
23.6%
Braylon McReynolds run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+1
23.9%
Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 5:34
4TH & 11
OPP 34
-5
24.7%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jack Brooks) to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 2:52
4TH & 16
OPP 39
0
24.1%
Jack Brooks punt for 36 yds, downed at the ArkSt 3Similar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
22.6%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offsides (Yam Banks) to the ArkSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14SF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 5
OWN 8
-8
21.5%
James Blackman sacked by James Miller and Jamie Sheriff for a loss of 8 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:3479% → 80%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
21.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
50
0
20.2%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 10
50
0
20.3%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 10
50
-2
20.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 48Similar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 12
OWN 48
-13
20.2%
run for a loss of 13 yards to the SAlab 35 fumbled, recovered by SAlab Jack BrooksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:3325% → 22%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
24.7%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-4
24.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 39Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 14
OPP 39
0
22.2%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 14
OPP 39
0
21.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:1479% → 80%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
20.9%
Marco Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 1Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 11
OWN 1
0
20.8%
Marco Lee run for no gain to the SAlab 1Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 11
OWN 1
+4
20.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the SAlab 5Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 7
OWN 5
0
19.7%
Jack Brooks punt for 40 yds , Johnnie Lang returns for no gain to the SAlab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:1922% → 22%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
22.3%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+12
21.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 12 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ernesto Ramirez) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:2422% → 22%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
22.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 8 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
23.2%
Marcel Murray run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
23.4%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
23.1%
Johnnie Lang run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 4
50
+8
23.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 8 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
24.1%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
24.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 3 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
23.7%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the SAlab 39Similar
Q3 11:31
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
21.8%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20TD
13 plays · 61 yds · 6:1382% → 96%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
17.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+23
17.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 23 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
17.0%
Marco Lee run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
17.0%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+10
17.4%
Carter Bradley run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
16.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 6 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+5
16.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
16.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+3
16.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+4
17.2%
Carter Bradley run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q3 11:31
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+1
18.5%
Marco Lee run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
16.8%
Marco Lee run for no gain to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Carter Bradley pass to DJ Thomas-Jones for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:436% → 5%
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
5.8%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
5.6%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+5
5.6%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 5
OWN 37
-10
5.9%
BLACKMAN, James sacked for a loss of 9 yards at the ASU28 (SHERIFF, Jamie). PENALTY ASU Holding on WATSON, Aleric enforced 10 yards from the ASU37 to the ASU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+12
5.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 12 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 3:29
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
5.1%
Ryan Hanson punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5397% → 97%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
3.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 4 yds to the SAlab 10Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+2
3.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the SAlab 12Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 4
OWN 12
+3
3.6%
Carter Bradley run for 3 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q3 1:36
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
3.3%
Jack Brooks punt for 35 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 2:215% → 4%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
50
+1
4.5%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the SAlab 49Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
4.6%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+6
4.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 6 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q3 1:36
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+5
4.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Adam Jones for 5 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
4.2%
Johnnie Lang run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 39
0
4.1%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 39
-10
4.1%
James Blackman sacked by Jamie Sheriff for a loss of 10 yards to the SAlab 49Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 21
OPP 49
0
3.7%
Ryan Hanson punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3197% → 97%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
2.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 11Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 11
OWN 11
0
2.7%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 11
OWN 11
+5
2.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 5 yds to the SAlab 16Similar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 6
OWN 16
0
2.7%
Jack Brooks punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang at the ArkSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:213% → 3%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
3.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 11 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
3.1%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-3
3.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 47Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 13
OPP 47
0
2.9%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:23
4TH & 13
OPP 47
0
2.6%
Ryan Hanson punt for 41 yds, downed at the SAlab 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:1198% → 98%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
2.1%
Marco Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 5Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 11
OWN 5
0
2.2%
Carter Bradley run for no gain to the SAlab 5Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 11
OWN 5
+2
2.2%
Omni Wells run for 2 yds to the SAlab 7Similar
Q4 9:12
4TH & 9
OWN 7
0
1.8%
Jack Brooks punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:223% → 2%
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
2.5%
Johnnie Lang run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+6
2.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 6 yds Johnnie Lang fumbled, recovered by SAlab Gi'Narious JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 28TD
11 plays · 52 yds · 7:1698% → 100%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
1.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 8
50
+5
1.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+1
1.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q4 8:50
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+2
1.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
1.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
1.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+15
1.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
1.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+2
1.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+5
1.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -5 yds · 1:320% → 0%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
0.1%
Mike Sharpe II run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 10
-3
0.1%
Mike Sharpe II run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:18
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Carter Bradley pass to DJ Thomas-Jones for Two-Point Conversion)
-13.2
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:11
James Blackman pass incomplete
+4.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 11:31
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the SAlab 43
-4.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com