Try the model
GAST

Georgia State 17 at App State 42

APP
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2022 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameTD+11.5APP 57.6%Camerun Peoples 16 Yd Run (MichaelHughes Kick)AWAY 14 - HOME 7 · Q2 3:13
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:13 · Camerun Peoples 16 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Pregame prior+13.9Home team on offense−5.1Score differential−1.7Garbage-time factor−2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:13: Camerun Peoples 16 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick) — APP win probability +11.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:24: Ahmani Marshall run for 37 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +15.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:59: Chase Brice run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +14.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:11: Chase Brice 1 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick) — APP win probability +7.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:42: Camerun Peoples run for 7 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +6.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 9GAST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:43APP 4th & 1 at APP 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:25APP 4th & 4 at APP 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:50APP 4th & 3 at APP 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:31GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:40APP 4th & 4 at APP 47, down 14
    Close callPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:52GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:53APP 4th & 4 at APP 36, down 14
    Close callPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:43GAST 4th & 9 at GAST 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:13APP 4th & 1 at GAST 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    45.5%−1.6
    81% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−5.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:51GAST 4th & 4 at GAST 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00APP 4th & 1 at GAST 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.8%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:55GAST 4th & 25 at GAST 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−4.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:45GAST 4th & 6 at APP 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−1.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:50APP 4th & 1 at GAST 21, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    87.7%−1.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    83.3%−5.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:53GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:30APP 4th & 3 at GAST 25, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 6GAST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:43GAST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:12GAST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:13APP Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:24APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:59APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:11APP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:42APP Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:24APP Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APPDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:0775% → 74%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
74.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Nate Noel for 7 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
74.4%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
74.3%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
74.3%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Christian WellsSimilar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+7
74.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christian Wells for 7 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
74.1%
Clayton Howell punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tailique Williams at the GeoSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 3:4726% → 29%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
74.0%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+6
73.9%
Darren Grainger run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
73.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
73.7%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ronald Clarke) to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
73.5%
Darren Grainger run for no gain to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-2
73.5%
Darren Grainger sacked by Nick Hampton for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+13
73.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 13 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+22
73.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 22 yds to the AppSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
73.2%
Darren Grainger run for 12 yds to the AppSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
72.9%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the AppSt 9Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+5
72.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the AppSt 4Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
70.9%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:0571% → 69%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the AppSt 26Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
70.4%
Daetrich Harrington run for 14 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
70.5%
Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
70.3%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Michael HetzelSimilar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+3
69.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Wilson for 3 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q1 6:25
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
69.4%
Clayton Howell punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Tailique Williams at the GeoSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 1:5831% → 37%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
69.2%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 11 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
68.6%
Jamyest Williams run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+18
68.5%
Darren Grainger run for 18 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
67.6%
Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Jamari ThrashSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+21
67.2%
Darren Grainger run for 21 yds to the AppSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
66.7%
Jamyest Williams run for no gain to the AppSt 26Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
63.3%
Darren Grainger 26 Yd Run (Michael Hayes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1065% → 63%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
64.8%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the AppSt 26Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
63.5%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+6
62.6%
Chase Brice run for 6 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
62.5%
Clayton Howell punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tailique Williams at the GeoSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:0938% → 40%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
62.0%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
61.3%
Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Jamari ThrashSimilar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+9
61.4%
Darren Grainger run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
60.5%
Marcus Carroll run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+6
59.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 6 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
59.4%
Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Robert LewisSimilar
Q1 0:31
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
59.8%
Michael Hayes punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Nathan Kibambe at the AppSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:3760% → 59%
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
60.1%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Christan HornSimilar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+29
59.9%
Camerun Peoples run for 14 yds to the AppSt 26 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
60.6%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+2
60.2%
Camerun Peoples run for 2 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
59.5%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Christan HornSimilar
Q2 13:40
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
59.2%
Clayton Howell punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Tailique Williams at the GeoSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3843% → 45%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
57.0%
Darren Grainger run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+2
56.5%
Darren Grainger run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+1
55.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamyest Williams for 1 yd to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+3
55.2%
Michael Hayes punt for 46 yds , Tyler Page returns for 3 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5255% → 54%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
55.2%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Christian WellsSimilar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
54.7%
Ahmani Marshall run for 6 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
54.9%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Dalton StromanSimilar
Q2 10:53
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
54.2%
Clayton Howell punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:0247% → 50%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
53.2%
Marcus Carroll run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
52.7%
Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Ja'Cyais CredleSimilar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
52.7%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+5
51.5%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 5 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
50.6%
Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Robert LewisSimilar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
50.7%
Darren Grainger run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
50.4%
Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Robert LewisSimilar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
50.4%
Michael Hayes punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2751% → 58%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
51.1%
Nate Noel run for 11 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
51.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 2 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
51.7%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+5
51.0%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
51.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 7 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+6
50.5%
Camerun Peoples run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
49.6%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+9
49.1%
Camerun Peoples run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
48.0%
Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+1
47.7%
Daetrich Harrington run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+4
46.5%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+16
57.6%
Camerun Peoples 16 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:0947% → 48%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
52.8%
Jamyest Williams run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
52.3%
Jamyest Williams run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
51.7%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ahmon Green for 2 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
52.5%
Michael Hayes punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 1:4553% → 53%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
53.4%
Nate Noel run for 9 yds to the AppSt 23Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+5
53.8%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
53.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Nate Noel for 5 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+10
54.2%
Nate Noel run for 10 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
54.7%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Nate NoelSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
53.6%
Chase Brice run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 3
50
+2
54.9%
Camerun Peoples run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
53.3%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14FUMBLE
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:3352% → 53%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
48.1%
Tucker Gregg run for 21 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
46.7%
Darren Grainger run for 6 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 4
OPP 28
-5
46.0%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 33Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+1
46.0%
Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd to the AppSt 32Similar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+1
46.8%
Darren Grainger sacked by Nick Hampton at AppSt 32, Darren Grainger fumbled, forced by Nick Hampton, recovered at AppSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:3652% → 69%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+20
51.6%
Camerun Peoples run for 20 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
53.8%
Camerun Peoples run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+4
53.8%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
53.5%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
53.1%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+37
68.5%
Ahmani Marshall run for 37 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:0537% → 35%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
62.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
61.9%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 25
OWN 20
0
62.8%
Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 25
OWN 20
0
63.1%
Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Jamari ThrashSimilar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 25
OWN 20
0
64.2%
Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Ahmon GreenSimilar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 25
OWN 20
+5
65.2%
Michael Hayes punt for 52 yds , Tyler Page returns for 5 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:3166% → 83%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
65.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 7 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+4
68.0%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
67.8%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+4
68.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+4
67.7%
Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+31
68.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 31 yds to the GeoSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
69.4%
Daetrich Harrington run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+3
69.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
69.0%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.4%
Chase Brice run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18INT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:4922% → 21%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
77.9%
Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Jamari ThrashSimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-6
78.2%
Darren Grainger sacked by Jalen McLeod for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 16
OWN 16
-12
79.4%
Darren Grainger pass intercepted Tyler Bird return for 12 yds to the GeoSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:1985% → 94%
Q3 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
-6
84.7%
Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 9 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 0
OPP 19
+6
85.4%
Daetrich Harrington run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
84.6%
Daetrich Harrington run for no gain to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 0
OPP 13
+11
83.7%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (11 Yards) to the GeoSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
86.4%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.0%
Chase Brice 1 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:1510% → 14%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
90.0%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+10
90.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
89.6%
Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Ja'Cyais CredleSimilar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+27
90.7%
Tucker Gregg run for 27 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
89.7%
Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+4
89.6%
Darren Grainger run for 4 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 4
OPP 28
-2
90.0%
Darren Grainger sacked by Kevon Haigler and TEAM for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 30Similar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+47
86.1%
Michael Hayes 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21TD
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:3890% → 98%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
90.1%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+5
90.2%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
89.8%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+4
89.3%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
90.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
92.0%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Miller GibbsSimilar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+9
91.6%
Camerun Peoples run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 7 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:423% → 3%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.8%
Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Robert LewisSimilar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.9%
Jamyest Williams run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
96.8%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:53
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
97.0%
Michael Hayes punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the AppSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:1698% → 100%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.6%
Camerun Peoples run for 2 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+41
97.6%
Camerun Peoples run for 41 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
98.1%
Ahmani Marshall run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+8
98.3%
Ahmani Marshall run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+2
98.3%
Chase Brice run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+4
98.0%
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
98.5%
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+6
98.8%
Anderson Castle run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
98.8%
Anderson Castle run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Anderson Castle 2 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:350% → 0%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 12 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
99.8%
Darren Grainger sacked by Kyle Arnholt for a loss of 10 yards to the GeoSt 15 Darren Grainger fumbled, recovered by AppSt Kevon Haigler , return for 0 yards , return for 12 yds to the GeoSt 15 Kevon Haigler fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Montavious Cunningham , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25FUMBLE
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:350% → 0%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+22
99.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ahmon Green for 22 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
99.8%
Darren Grainger run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-5
99.8%
Darren Grainger sacked by Donovan Spellman for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+15
99.8%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Darren Grainger pass incomplete to Robert LewisSimilar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
99.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Cadarrius Thompson for 1 yd Cadarrius Thompson fumbled, recovered by AppSt Kyle ArnholtSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:30100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
99.9%
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+21
99.9%
Anderson Castle run for 21 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:24
Ahmani Marshall run for 37 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)
+15.4
TD · Q3 3:59
Chase Brice run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)
+14.4
TD · Q2 3:13
Camerun Peoples 16 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)
+11.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com