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ARST

Arkansas State 19 at Southern Miss 20

USM
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDSAFETYTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:18 · Zach Wilcke pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 9 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Pregame prior+9.3Home team on offense−3.2Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:07: Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 23 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +11.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 8:02: James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 9 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +15.8 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:20: Frank Gore Jr. run for 30 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +18.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:47: Jake Lange run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 7 — ARST win probability +14.2 pts (now 71%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:12: Janari Dean 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — USM win probability +50.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 6ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 6:26ARST 4th & 15 at ARST 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:55USM 4th & 7 at ARST 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    58.2%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:00ARST 4th & 10 at ARST 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:26USM 4th & 19 at ARST 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−1.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    55.2%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:15ARST 4th & 7 at USM 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−4.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:53ARST 4th & 16 at ARST 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:18USM 4th & 5 at ARST 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    55.5%−0.8
    32% to make
    Punt
    55.3%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:01USM 4th & 1 at USM 34, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:19USM 4th & 21 at USM 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−4.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:49ARST 4th & 7 at USM 43, up 10
    Close callPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    70.9%−1.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:18ARST 4th & 9 at USM 41, up 12
    Close callPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    83.7%−1.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:06ARST 4th & 16 at ARST 14, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−9.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:47USM 4th & 3 at ARST 7, down 5
    Close callWent for it · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.7%−0.6
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    26.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−14.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:08ARST 4th & 27 at ARST 41, down 1
    Numbers favored punt by 4.2 ptsWent for it · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.7%−4.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:55ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:07USM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:02ARST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:20USM Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:12USM Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    69.9%−1.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    71.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0532% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offsides ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
68.0%
Johnnie Lang run for no gain to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
68.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 10 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
68.0%
Brian Snead run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+4
68.0%
Brian Snead run for 4 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+6
68.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 6 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
68.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 17 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
68.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 2 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+22
65.6%
Jeff Foreman 22 Yd pass from James Blackman (Dominic Zvada Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2INT
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:5966% → 65%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.1%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
66.1%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 1 yd to the SoMis 28Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+23
66.0%
Zach Wilcke run for 23 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
66.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 5
OPP 44
+3
66.6%
Chandler Pittman run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-15
66.6%
GORE, Frank rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the ASU37 (BENNETT, Kivon;MINCEY, John). PENALTY USM Personal Foul on GAINER, Paul enforced 15 yards from the ASU41 to the USM44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 17
OWN 44
0
66.2%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 17
OWN 44
+5
66.1%
WILCKE, Zach pass to the right incomplete intended for BROWNLEE, Jason thrown to the ASU39. PENALTY ASU Offsides on HASSLER, Ethan enforced 5 yards from the USM44 to the USM49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+5
66.2%
WILCKE, Zach pass to the right incomplete intended for BROWNLEE, Jason broken up by SMITH, Eddie at the ASU23. PENALTY ASU Offsides on MOTLEY, Dane enforced 5 yards from the USM49 to the ASU46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
65.1%
Zach Wilcke pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:3036% → 36%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
63.8%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
63.9%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-6
64.0%
James Blackman sacked by Jay Stanley for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 6:26
4TH & 15
OWN 40
+4
63.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 36 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 4 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:3164% → 62%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
63.8%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
63.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the SoMis 28Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+15
63.4%
WILCKE, Zach pass to the left incomplete intended for GORE, Frank broken up by HASSLER, Ethan at the USM32. PENALTY ASU Unnecessary Roughness on BENNETT, Kivon enforced 15 yards from the USM28 to the USM43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
64.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+6
64.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
64.7%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
64.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 6
OPP 42
-1
64.6%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q1 2:55
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
62.3%
Mason Hunt punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5538% → 39%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
61.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Brian Snead for no gain to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-7
61.6%
Brian Snead run for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+7
62.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 7 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 10
OWN 20
-3
61.2%
William Przystup punt for 50 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:3461% → 59%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+27
60.8%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 27 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
62.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 36
-2
61.7%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+11
61.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
62.3%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+1
62.3%
Janari Dean run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 26
-10
61.6%
WILCKE, Zach pass to the right incomplete thrown to the ASU20; QB hurried by BENNETT, Kivon. PENALTY USM Holding on WRIGHT, Coker enforced 10 yards from the ASU26 to the ASU36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 36
0
60.5%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:26
4TH & 19
OPP 36
0
58.5%
Mason Hunt punt for 30 yds, downed at the ArkSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7FG
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:1141% → 47%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
59.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 5 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 5
OWN 11
0
58.9%
Johnnie Lang run for no gain to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+18
59.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 18 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
58.4%
Johnnie Lang run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+17
58.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 17 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
57.4%
James Blackman run for 8 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+13
57.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 13 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
57.0%
BLACKMAN, James pass to the right incomplete intended for HUNT, Te'Vailance thrown to the USM10. PENALTY USM Pass Interference on SCOTT, Eric enforced 18 yards to the USM17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
56.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for no gain to the SoMis 17Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
56.9%
Johnnie Lang run for 3 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
57.2%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
53.4%
Dominic Zvada 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0852% → 63%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
52.1%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 29 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
54.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+15
53.5%
WILCKE, Zach pass to the right incomplete intended for MIMS, Tiaquelin thrown to the ASU24. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on THOMAS, Trevian enforced 15 yards to the ASU33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
55.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+2
55.1%
Janari Dean run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+2
51.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
62.5%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 23 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:1443% → 41%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
57.2%
Johnnie Lang run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+11
57.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 11 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
56.0%
Johnnie Lang run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+3
56.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 8
50
-8
56.2%
James Blackman sacked by Dominic Quewon for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q2 2:53
4TH & 16
OWN 42
0
58.6%
William Przystup punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10INT
12 plays · 58 yds · 2:4257% → 58%
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
57.0%
Antavious Willis run for 6 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+8
57.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 8 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
56.7%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+13
56.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 13 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
57.7%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 17 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
56.7%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Luke Baker for 5 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
56.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
56.1%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+9
54.3%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 9 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
57.5%
Zach Wilcke pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.5%
[NH] Kneel down by BLACKMAN, James at ASU23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5958% → 55%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
57.9%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jay Stanley for 5 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
58.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
55.2%
Mason Hunt punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang at the ArkSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 4:5945% → 65%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
54.8%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+6
55.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 6 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+3
55.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Adam Jones for 3 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
54.3%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+11
54.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 11 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+23
52.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 23 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
51.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 15 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
50.8%
Johnnie Lang run for 8 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+2
50.8%
Johnnie Lang run for 2 yds to the SoMis 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
35.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 9 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · -11 yds · 2:4337% → 30%
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
36.8%
GORE, Frank rush to the right for a gain of 13 yards to the USM38 (THOMAS, Trevian). PENALTY USM Holding enforced 10 yards from the USM25 to the USM15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+15
36.4%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 15 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
37.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-15
34.0%
WILCKE, Zach pass to the left complete for 50 yards to GORE, Frank caught at the USM50 and advanced to the ASU20 (JONES, Leon). PENALTY USM Pass Interference on BAKER, Luke enforced 15 yards to the USM15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 20
OWN 15
-1
32.7%
Zach Wilcke sacked by Kivon Bennett for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 14Similar
Q3 5:19
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+54
29.9%
Mason Hunt punt for 44 yds , Johnnie Lang returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 13 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Block (TEAM) to the ArkSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:3069% → 72%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
30.8%
Johnnie Lang run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+1
30.6%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+7
30.8%
Johnnie Lang run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
29.4%
Johnnie Lang run for 11 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
28.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Mike Sharpe II for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+8
30.5%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 8 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
29.4%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:49
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
27.7%
Ryan Hanson punt for 35 yds, downed at the SoMis 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16SF
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:4427% → 22%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
26.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the SoMis 8Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
26.6%
Jake Lange pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:09
3RD & 10
OWN 8
0
24.1%
Jake Lange pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:09
4TH & 10
OWN 8
0
23.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the SoMis 4Similar
Q3 1:05
4TH & 14
OWN 4
-4
22.3%
run for a loss of 4 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 3:4181% → 82%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
19.2%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
16.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+2
16.1%
Ja'Quez Cross run for 2 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+7
16.5%
Johnnie Lang run for 7 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
15.7%
Johnnie Lang run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 44Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+8
16.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 8 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
15.4%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 4
OPP 36
-5
17.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 12:18
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
13.9%
Ryan Hanson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 5Similar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+15
18.4%
LANGE, Jake pass to the right incomplete intended for BROWNLEE, Jason broken up by JONES, Leon at the USM32. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on JONES, Leon enforced 15 yards to the USM20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18TD
9 plays · 95 yds · 2:5819% → 41%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
18.9%
Jake Lange pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 2 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+13
18.8%
Jake Lange pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 13 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
19.4%
Jake Lange pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
19.2%
Janari Dean run for 12 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
20.2%
Jake Lange pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 8 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+15
21.5%
Janari Dean run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
22.8%
Jake Lange pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
22.6%
Jake Lange pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+30
40.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 30 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:0871% → 68%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
29.5%
Johnnie Lang run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
28.1%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-10
30.2%
James Blackman sacked by Quentin Bivens for a loss of 10 yards to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 16
OWN 14
+30
31.6%
William Przystup punt for 61 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 30 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20TD
13 plays · 45 yds · 5:5441% → 78%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
41.2%
Janari Dean run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+2
41.2%
Janari Dean run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+3
40.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
43.7%
Jake Lange pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 11 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
43.7%
Jake Lange pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 7 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+2
43.6%
Janari Dean run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+1
41.0%
Janari Dean run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
43.6%
Jake Lange pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+1
43.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+6
29.4%
Jake Lange run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+4
28.2%
Jake Lange pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 4 yds to the ArkSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
78.3%
Janari Dean 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 8 yds · 0:5835% → 26%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
64.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 6 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
61.5%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+19
63.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 19 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
58.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Trevian Thomas) to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 15
OPP 47
0
61.1%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 15
OPP 47
0
62.5%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 15
OPP 47
-7
64.6%
James Blackman sacked by Jalil Clemons for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 22
OWN 46
-5
70.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q4 1:08
4TH & 27
OWN 41
0
73.7%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 1:0883% → 96%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
83.1%
[NH] Kneel down by LANGE, Jake at ASU42 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 42
0
95.5%
[NH] Kneel down by LANGE, Jake at ASU43 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:12
Janari Dean 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+50.1
TD · Q4 9:20
Frank Gore Jr. run for 30 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)
+18.1
TD · Q3 8:02
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 9 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK)
-15.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com