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JMU

James Madison 42 at Arkansas State 20

ARST
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadJMU aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreJMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-7.8ARST 5.1%P. Agyei-Obese run for 31 yds for aTD, (C. Wise KICK)AWAY 35 - HOME 20 · Q4 8:37
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:37 · P. Agyei-Obese run for 31 yds for a TD, (C. Wise KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Pregame prior−3.4Home team on offense−37.8Score differential−17.0Garbage-time factor−10.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:26: Todd Centeio pass complete to Devin Ravenel for 10 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +17.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:24: Percy Agyei-Obese run for 17 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +9.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:13: James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 13 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +10.4 pts (now 28%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:21: James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 4 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +11.7 pts (now 23%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:37: P. Agyei-Obese run for 31 yds for a TD, (C. Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +7.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8JMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:37JMU 4th & 16 at JMU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:27ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:37JMU 4th & 12 at ARST 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    72.1%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:10ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:03JMU 4th & 9 at ARST 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    69.0%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00ARST 4th & 2 at JMU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    31.8%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−2.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:09ARST 4th & 5 at JMU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−2.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:40ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 46, down 4
    Close callPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:05ARST 4th & 14 at JMU 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−4.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:52JMU 4th & 10 at ARST 15, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    72.8%−7.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:51ARST 4th & 18 at ARST 12, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−4.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:37JMU 4th & 1 at ARST 31, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    81.7%−3.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    80.0%−5.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:36ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 24, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2JMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q2 7:40JMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:26JMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:24JMU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:13ARST Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:39JMU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:21ARST Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.0%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.5%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:37JMU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:56JMU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
JMUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:1772% → 72%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
27.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Zach Horton for 15 yds to the JMads 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
27.7%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
27.7%
JMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the JMads 30Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 15
OWN 30
-1
27.7%
Latrele Palmer run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMads 29Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 16
OWN 29
0
27.7%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 16
OWN 29
+9
28.4%
Sam Clark punt for 45 yds , Johnnie Lang returns for 9 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1028% → 29%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
28.3%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
28.7%
Brian Snead run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
28.7%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+7
28.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 52 yds , Josh Sarratt returns for 7 yds to the JMads 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 3PUNT
14 plays · 49 yds · 5:5071% → 69%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
28.9%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 9 yds to the JMads 24Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+3
28.7%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 3 yds to the JMads 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
28.8%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 3 yds to the JMads 30Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+4
28.8%
Latrele Palmer run for 4 yds to the JMads 34Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+4
28.8%
Todd Centeio run for 4 yds to the JMads 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
28.7%
Latrele Palmer run for 5 yds to the JMads 43Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+6
28.6%
Latrele Palmer run for 6 yds to the JMads 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
28.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Devin Ravenel for 17 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
28.5%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
28.5%
Latrele Palmer run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
28.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Solomon Vanhorse for no gain to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 7
OPP 31
-5
28.7%
JMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 6:37
4TH & 12
OPP 36
0
31.5%
Sam Clark punt for 34 yds, downed at the ArkSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2731% → 31%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
31.3%
Brian Snead run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+2
31.2%
Brian Snead run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 7
OWN 5
0
30.9%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:10
4TH & 7
OWN 5
+9
31.2%
William Przystup punt for 45 yds , Josh Sarratt returns for 9 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 5MISSED FG
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:0769% → 68%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
30.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 5 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+4
30.6%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+3
30.7%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
30.3%
Latrele Palmer run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
31.1%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 8
OPP 27
-1
31.7%
Todd Centeio run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q1 2:03
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+45
32.5%
Camden Wise 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6FG
17 plays · 65 yds · 5:5434% → 41%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
33.8%
James Blackman sacked by Isaac Ukwu for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 14
OWN 24
0
33.5%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 14
OWN 24
+47
33.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 47 yds to the JMads 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
35.3%
Brian Snead run for no gain to the JMads 29Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
36.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 4 yds to the JMads 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+4
36.1%
Brian Snead run for 4 yds to the JMads 21Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+5
35.2%
AJ Mayer run for 5 yds to the JMads 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
36.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Brian Snead for 2 yds to the JMads 14Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
38.9%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 8
OPP 14
-9
38.3%
James Blackman sacked by Taurus Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the JMads 23Similar
Q2 13:15
4TH & 17
OPP 23
0
36.0%
ZVADA, Dominic field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD [kick was spotted at JMU31], score nullified by penalty. PENALTY JMU Roughing the Kicker on SWANN, Jordan enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards from the JMU23 to the JMU13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
40.4%
Brian Snead run for 4 yds to the JMads 8Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+1
40.4%
Brian Snead run for 1 yd to the JMads 7Similar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
39.7%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+25
41.3%
Dominic Zvada 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:2359% → 70%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
40.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 8 yds to the JMads 31Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 2
OWN 31
-10
39.8%
JMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the JMads 21Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+3
41.2%
Todd Centeio run for 3 yds to the JMads 24Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+41
41.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Terrance Greene Jr. for 41 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
37.6%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+10
37.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Solomon Vanhorse for 10 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
37.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 7 yds to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+5
37.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 5 yds to the ArkSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
29.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Solomon Vanhorse for 13 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5536% → 36%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
35.8%
Brian Snead run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
36.4%
Brian Snead run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+3
35.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Brian Snead for 3 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q2 5:40
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
36.1%
Ryan Hanson punt for 41 yds, downed at the JMads 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 9TD
14 plays · 87 yds · 5:1467% → 83%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
33.0%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 8 yds to the JMads 21Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+3
32.1%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 3 yds to the JMads 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
32.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 12 yds to the JMads 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
31.8%
Latrele Palmer run for 5 yds to the JMads 41Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+6
31.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Drew Painter for 6 yds to the JMads 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
31.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Drew Painter for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 7
50
+17
30.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 17 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
30.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 5 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+2
29.8%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+3
30.6%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
29.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 9 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+4
34.5%
Latrele Palmer run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
17.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Devin Ravenel for 10 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
21.7%
Brian Snead run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 4:4924% → 25%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
23.6%
Brian Snead run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
24.5%
Brian Snead run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
24.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 20 yds to the JMads 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
25.7%
Ja'Quez Cross run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMads 45Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+9
25.2%
James Blackman run for 9 yds to the JMads 36Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+9
25.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 9 yds to the JMads 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
26.8%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-2
26.7%
Brian Snead run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMads 29Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 12
OPP 29
+14
25.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 14 yds to the JMads 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
26.8%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
26.8%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 10
OPP 15
-4
25.5%
James Blackman sacked by Jailin Walker for a loss of 4 yards to the JMads 19Similar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 14
OPP 19
+37
25.2%
Dominic Zvada 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4176% → 89%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.7%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 2 yds to the JMads 27Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+54
23.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 54 yds to the ArkSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
21.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Drew Painter for 2 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
11.5%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 17 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 2:0516% → 28%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
16.0%
JMU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Brent Austin) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
17.9%
Brian Snead run for no gain to the JMads 23Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+17
17.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 17 yds to the JMads 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-7
17.8%
run for a loss of 7 yards to the JMads 13Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
28.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 13 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 14MISSED FG
17 plays · 74 yds · 6:1677% → 81%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
23.0%
Kris Thornton run for 13 yds to the JMads 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
22.5%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 1 yd to the JMads 25Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+10
23.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Solomon Vanhorse for 10 yds to the JMads 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
21.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Terrance Greene Jr. for 8 yds to the JMads 43Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
20.7%
Latrele Palmer run for 1 yd to the JMads 44Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
21.0%
Latrele Palmer run for 2 yds to the JMads 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
20.5%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
20.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Drew Painter for 5 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+7
20.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Solomon Vanhorse for 7 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
20.1%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+13
20.2%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
19.5%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+10
19.5%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
19.4%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-2
15.8%
Kris Thornton run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
16.7%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
18.7%
Camden Wise 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 2:0120% → 17%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
20.3%
Brian Snead run for no gain to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-6
20.2%
James Blackman sacked by James Carpenter for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 16
OWN 14
-2
19.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 18
OWN 12
+14
16.8%
Ryan Hanson punt for 45 yds , Josh Sarratt returns for 14 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 43 yds · 1:1286% → 95%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+30
13.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 30 yds to the ArkSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
13.0%
Todd Centeio run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
5.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Zach Horton for 9 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1810% → 23%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
9.9%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
9.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+37
9.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 37 yds to the JMads 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+33
11.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 33 yds to the JMads 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
23.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 4 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 18TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4484% → 95%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
15.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 35 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
13.0%
Latrele Palmer run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+7
13.1%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 1
OPP 31
0
12.9%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:37
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+31
5.1%
P. Agyei-Obese run for 31 yds for a TD, (C. Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:336% → 6%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
5.8%
James Blackman run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-4
5.7%
James Blackman sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 20TD
1 play · 28 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
1.2%
T. Centeio pass,to D. Painter for 28 yds for a TD, (C. Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:152% → 1%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
1.5%
James Blackman sacked by Jamare Edwards for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+5
1.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Ja'Quez Cross for 5 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
1.5%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:36
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
1.0%
Ryan Hanson punt for 46 yds, downed at the JMads 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
10 plays · 43 yds · 6:3699% → 100%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
1.2%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 4 yds to the JMads 34Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+9
1.2%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 9 yds to the JMads 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
1.1%
Latrele Palmer run for no gain to the JMads 43Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+23
1.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Zach Horton for 23 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
1.1%
Latrele Palmer run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 9
OPP 33
-5
1.1%
JMU Penalty, False Start (Nick Kidwell) to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+20
1.1%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 20 yds to the ArkSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
1.0%
[NH] Kneel down by JMU at ASU20 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 12
OPP 20
0
1.1%
[NH] Kneel down by JMU at ASU25 (team loss of 5).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 17
OPP 25
0
0.4%
[NH] Kneel down by JMU at ASU27 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:26
Todd Centeio pass complete to Devin Ravenel for 10 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)
-17.2
TD · Q4 10:21
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 4 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+11.7
TD · Q3 6:13
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 13 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com