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ULM

UL Monroe 28 at Arkansas State 45

ARST
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:02 · Johnnie Lang run for 13 yds to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:43: James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 18 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK), (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +7.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:32: Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +11.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:02: Malik Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) — ULM win probability +8.9 pts (now 22%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:22: Chandler Rogers 22 Yd Run (Calum Sutherland Kick) — ULM win probability +10.7 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:28: Brian Snead run for 10 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +5.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ULM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 14:52ARST 4th & 1 at ULM 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:29ARST 4th & 23 at ULM 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    68.9%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:59ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 9, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:11ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:12ARST 4th & 10 at ULM 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:54ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:16ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:32ULM 4th & 15 at ULM 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:53ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:16ULM 4th & 17 at ULM 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−2.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:07ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 19, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:49ARST 4th & 4 at ULM 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    90.4%−0.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    87.1%−3.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:02ULM 4th & 19 at ULM 35, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ULM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:21ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:02ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:33ULM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:31ARST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:43ARST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:32ARST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:02ULM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:22ULM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:28ARST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:2369% → 68%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
68.5%
Johnnie Lang run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+7
68.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 7 yds Te'Vailance Hunt fumbled, recovered by ArkStSimilar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
68.5%
Johnnie Lang run for no gain to the LaMon 47Similar
Q1 14:52
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+23
68.5%
Johnnie Lang run for 23 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
68.5%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the LaMon 23Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
68.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (James Blackman) to the LaMon 37Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 23
OPP 37
0
68.5%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:29
4TH & 23
OPP 37
0
68.2%
Ryan Hanson punt for 36 yds, downed at the LaMon 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3032% → 32%
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
68.3%
Malik Jackson run for no gain to the LaMon 1Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
68.4%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:29
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+8
68.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Nolan Quinlan for 8 yds to the LaMon 9Similar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 2
OWN 9
0
68.3%
Devyn McCormick punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang at the ArkSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:3868% → 71%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
68.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 9 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
68.5%
Brian Snead run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
68.4%
Brian Snead run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
68.4%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+20
68.2%
UL MONROE Penalty, Personal Foul (20 Yards) to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 16
OPP 36
+17
68.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 17 yds to the LaMon 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
68.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 6 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+9
68.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 9 yds to the LaMon 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
68.6%
Brian Snead run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 5Similar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
68.6%
James Blackman sacked by Keydrain Calligan for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 35Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 15
OPP 35
-1
68.4%
Johnnie Lang run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 36Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
71.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 5 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1930% → 33%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
70.2%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Dennard Flowers for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 22Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
70.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+18
70.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 18 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
69.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Eddie Smith) to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-13
69.4%
UL MONROE Penalty, Personal Foul (-13 Yards) to the LaMon 44Similar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 23
OWN 42
+58
66.7%
Alred Luke 58 Yd pass from Chandler Rogers (Calum Sutherland Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4667% → 66%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
67.1%
Brian Snead run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-2
67.5%
Brian Snead run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+5
66.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 5 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
66.4%
William Przystup punt for 36 yds , Boogie Knight returns for no gain to the LaMon 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5968% → 68%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
68.3%
AJ Mayer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
68.2%
AJ Mayer run for no gain to the LaMon 28Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
67.8%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+46
67.6%
Dominic Zvada 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1832% → 32%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
67.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Alred Luke for 8 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-2
67.2%
Andrew Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 31Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
67.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:54
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
68.5%
Devyn McCormick punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang at the ArkSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3868% → 68%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
67.6%
Johnnie Lang run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+5
67.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 30
-3
66.9%
James Blackman sacked by Kenard Snyder for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 11
OWN 27
+41
66.2%
Ryan Hanson punt for 41 yds , Tyrone Howell returns for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 31Similar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
67.5%
QB Keeper ROGERS, Chandler rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the ULM32 (CRAWFORD, Keyron). PENALTY ASU Personal Foul on HARDIMAN, Tim enforced 15 yards from the ULM32 to the ULM47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 2:4334% → 40%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
66.4%
Malik Jackson run for 17 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
66.2%
Malik Jackson run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+9
65.7%
Chandler Rogers run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+20
65.6%
Chandler Rogers run for 20 yds to the ArkSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
60.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Rasmussen for 5 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 4:5362% → 70%
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
62.3%
Brian Snead run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+6
62.3%
Brian Snead run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+12
61.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 12 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
62.7%
Brian Snead run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
64.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Brian Snead for 3 yds to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+6
63.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 6 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
64.3%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
64.1%
Johnnie Lang run for 5 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+16
64.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 16 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
65.3%
BLACKMAN, James pass to the right incomplete intended for HUNT, Te'Vailance thrown to the ULM0. PENALTY ULM Pass Interference on MAYBERRY, Duece enforced 15 yards to the ULM17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
65.3%
James Blackman run for 4 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+13
70.3%
Brian Snead run for 13 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:5933% → 31%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
67.3%
JACKSON, Malik rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the ULM27 (THOMAS, Trevian). PENALTY ULM Holding on MCGILL, Zarian enforced 10 yards from the ULM25 to the ULM15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
67.4%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+3
67.6%
Andrew Henry run for 3 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+2
68.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Malik Jackson for 2 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+13
69.3%
Devyn McCormick punt for 46 yds , Johnnie Lang returns for 13 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12TD
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:4970% → 77%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
69.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Adam Jones for 2 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
69.5%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+20
68.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 20 yds to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
70.5%
Johnnie Lang run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 32Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+9
70.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 9 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+9
69.2%
AJ Mayer run for 9 yds to the LaMon 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-4
70.3%
Johnnie Lang run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 18Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 14
OPP 18
0
69.6%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 14
OPP 18
+18
77.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 18 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK), (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
76.8%
Malik Jackson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:0723% → 20%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
77.0%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Jordan Carmouche for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+4
77.4%
Malik Jackson run for 4 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+3
78.1%
Chandler Rogers run for 3 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-2
80.3%
Devyn McCormick punt for 50 yds , Johnnie Lang returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 4:2180% → 93%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
79.5%
Johnnie Lang run for no gain to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+21
79.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 21 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
80.7%
Johnnie Lang run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+25
80.3%
Brian Snead run for 25 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
81.1%
Brian Snead run for 6 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+1
81.1%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the LaMon 26Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+14
80.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Adam Jones for 14 yds to the LaMon 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
81.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Adam Jones for 11 yds to the LaMon 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.1%
Johnnie Lang run for no gain to the LaMon 1Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.5%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16TD
14 plays · 65 yds · 5:2411% → 22%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
89.1%
Malik Jackson run for 9 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+8
88.4%
Malik Jackson run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
88.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Malik Jackson for 5 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 5
OPP 43
-10
88.2%
QB Keeper ROGERS, Chandler rush to the right for a gain of 9 yards to the ASU34 (THOMAS, Trevian), out of bounds. PENALTY ULM Holding on WILKINS, Stacey enforced 10 yards from the ASU43 to the ULM47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 15
OWN 47
0
89.8%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+13
90.0%
Chandler Rogers run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 40 Chandler Rogers fumbled, recovered by LaMon Alred LukeSimilar
Q3 8:26
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+15
88.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Targeting on THOMAS, Trevian enforced (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
87.4%
Andrew Henry run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+8
87.4%
Malik Jackson run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
87.4%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
88.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Kenneth Harris) to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q3 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
87.5%
Malik Jackson run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
87.4%
Andrew Henry run for no gain to the ArkSt 8 Andrew Henry fumbled, recovered by LaMonSimilar
Q3 3:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.5%
Malik Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:267% → 6%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
93.1%
Malik Jackson run for 11 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
92.9%
Malik Jackson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+1
92.8%
Chandler Rogers run for 1 yd to the LaMon 32Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 7
OWN 32
-10
93.0%
run for a loss of 10 yards to the LaMon 22Similar
Q3 0:16
4TH & 17
OWN 22
0
94.4%
Devyn McCormick punt for 60 yds, downed at the ArkSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5395% → 95%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
94.7%
Brian Snead run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 21
-2
94.7%
Brian Snead run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
94.6%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 9
OWN 19
+47
94.9%
William Przystup punt for 47 yds , Tyrone Howell returns for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 2:455% → 17%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
94.6%
Chandler Rogers run for 11 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
94.6%
Malik Jackson run for 4 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
94.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+10
94.6%
ROGERS, Chandler pass to the left incomplete dropped by LUKE, Alred thrown to the ASU20. PENALTY ASU Holding enforced 10 yards from the ULM48 to the ASU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
94.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Jackson for 2 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+6
94.5%
Malik Jackson run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+5
94.2%
Malik Jackson run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
93.7%
Andrew Henry run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 3
OPP 22
0
93.7%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+22
83.0%
Chandler Rogers 22 Yd Run (Calum Sutherland Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20TD
14 plays · 67 yds · 6:5487% → 98%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
87.2%
Johnnie Lang run for no gain to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
87.0%
Johnnie Lang run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+9
87.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 9 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
88.0%
UL MONROE Penalty, Offsides (Tralon Thomas) to the LaMon 48Similar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 5
OPP 48
+13
88.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 13 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
88.4%
Brian Snead run for no gain to the LaMon 35Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
88.3%
Brian Snead run for 2 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+4
92.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 4 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 6:49
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+13
91.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 13 yds to the LaMon 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
92.4%
Brian Snead run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 17Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+14
92.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Brian Snead for 14 yds to the LaMon 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-7
92.4%
AJ Mayer run for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 10Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
98.2%
Brian Snead run for 10 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21DOWNS
12 plays · 23 yds · 2:262% → 2%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
97.6%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 18 Chandler Rogers fumbled, recovered by LaMon Chandler RogersSimilar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+6
97.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jevin Frett for 6 yds to the LaMon 24 UL MONROE Penalty, Personal Foul (Will Derrick) to the LaMon 12Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 23
OWN 12
0
97.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Andrew Henry for no gain to the LaMon 12Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+17
97.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 17 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
97.5%
ROGERS, Chandler pass to the right incomplete intended for FRETT, Jevin thrown to the ULM35. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on HARRIS, Kenneth enforced 15 yards to the ULM44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-6
97.9%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Kivon Bennett and Ethan Hassler for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 38Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 16
OWN 38
+2
98.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Malik Jackson for 2 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 14
OWN 40
0
98.4%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 14
OWN 40
-5
98.4%
UL MONROE Penalty, False Start (Keydrell Lewis) to the LaMon 35Similar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 19
OWN 35
+13
98.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jevin Frett for 13 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
99.0%
Johnnie Lang run for 5 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+13
99.0%
Johnnie Lang run for 13 yds to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:32
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+11.4
TD · Q4 11:22
Chandler Rogers 22 Yd Run (Calum Sutherland Kick)
-10.7
TD · Q3 3:02
Malik Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)
-8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com