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ARST

Arkansas State 32 at Memphis 44

MEM
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:59 · Seth Henigan run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 47 Seth Henigan fumbled, recovered by Memph Seth Henigan
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 93Pregame prior+16.7Home team on offense+5.7Garbage-time factor+2.5Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Blowout margin−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:05: Brian Snead run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +8.3 pts (now 29%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:47: S. Henigan pass,to J. Scates for 51 yds for a TD, (C. Howard KICK) — MEM win probability +12.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:31: B. Snead run for 7 yds for a TD, (J. Blackman pass to J. Lang for Two-Point Conversion) — ARST win probability +17.8 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 4:22: J. Blackman pass,to J. Lang for 27 yds for a TD, (D. Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +36.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:08: Jevyon Ducker 39 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — MEM win probability +36.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ARST made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:00MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:26ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:01ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:37MEM 4th & 4 at ARST 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    79.2%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    79.0%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:27ARST 4th & 13 at MEM 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:13ARST 4th & 14 at ARST 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−1.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:59MEM 4th & 1 at ARST 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    75.4%−3.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    76.7%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:59ARST 4th & 5 at MEM 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:18ARST 4th & 5 at MEM 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:18MEM 4th & 1 at ARST 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    75.2%−3.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    76.0%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:18MEM 4th & 23 at midfield, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−2.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:03MEM 4th & 23 at midfield, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−4.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:03ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−1.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:07ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−2.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:31MEM 4th & 1 at ARST 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%−4.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−5.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:55MEM 4th & 5 at ARST 29, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.4%−0.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−12.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:22MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 29, down 1
    Close callWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:12ARST 4th & 15 at ARST 41, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.3%−1.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:21ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 45, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.8%−0.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:00ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 45, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ARST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:39ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:30MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:05ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:20MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:30MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:47MEM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:31ARST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:22ARST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−2.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:08MEM Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    81.8%−1.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    83.5%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:57MEM Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:0086% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
85.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 11 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
85.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
85.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
85.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
85.8%
Joe Doyle punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q1 14:00
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
85.5%
Joe Doyle punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:2115% → 16%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
85.5%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
85.5%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+24
85.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 24 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
85.5%
Johnnie Lang run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+2
85.5%
Johnnie Lang run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+2
84.8%
Johnnie Lang run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+51
84.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 51 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0984% → 84%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
84.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 8 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-1
84.3%
Brandon Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 32Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
84.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 10 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+42
84.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 42 yds to the ArkSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
84.5%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 13Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+7
84.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Marcayll Jones for 7 yds to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
84.5%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
84.5%
HENIGAN, Seth pass up the middle complete for 4 yards to JONES, Marcayll caught at the ASU5 and advanced to the ASU2 (STRAKER, Melique;SMITH, Eddie). PENALTY MEM Holding on GAMBILL, Jonah enforced 10 yards from the ASU6 to the ASU16 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+16
84.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 16 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:2517% → 18%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
83.5%
Brian Snead run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+3
83.5%
James Blackman run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+1
83.5%
Brian Snead run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
83.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 6 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+3
83.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Brian Snead for 3 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
83.3%
Brian Snead run for no gain to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+1
83.6%
Ryan Hanson punt for 42 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for 1 yd to the Memph 26Similar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+1
82.5%
Ryan Hanson punt for 42 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for 1 yd to the Memph 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:2483% → 81%
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
82.6%
Jevyon Ducker run for no gain to the Memph 26Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
82.5%
Seth Henigan run for no gain to the Memph 26Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+19
82.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 19 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
83.1%
Jevyon Ducker run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
83.3%
Jevyon Ducker run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
83.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+3
83.2%
Asa Martin run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 0:37
4TH & 4
OPP 36
0
82.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
80.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Seydou Traore) to the ArkSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 5:3219% → 29%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
80.9%
Johnnie Lang run for no gain to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
80.6%
Johnnie Lang run for no gain to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+8
80.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 8 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+13
80.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 13 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
79.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 11 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
79.6%
Johnnie Lang run for no gain to the Memph 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+20
79.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 20 yds to the Memph 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
79.2%
Brian Snead run for 1 yd to the Memph 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+3
79.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 3 yds to the Memph 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+12
79.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Marcel Murray for 12 yds to the Memph 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.3%
Brian Snead run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 1:4073% → 81%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+56
73.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 56 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
76.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-2
76.0%
Brandon Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+21
80.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 21 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:4822% → 27%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
77.6%
Brian Snead run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
77.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Brian Snead for 11 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
76.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Emmanual Stevenson for 2 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+13
76.1%
Johnnie Lang run for 13 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
75.9%
James Blackman run for 12 yds to the Memph 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
75.4%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-3
75.5%
Marcel Murray run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 29Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 13
OPP 29
0
76.8%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:27
4TH & 13
OPP 29
+46
73.2%
Dominic Zvada 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 2:5273% → 82%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
73.1%
Asa Martin run for 6 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
73.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+5
72.4%
Asa Martin run for 5 yds to the Memph 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+21
73.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 21 yds Joseph Scates fumbled, recovered by Memph Joseph Scates for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
75.3%
Asa Martin run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+15
75.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 15 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Leon Jones) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
76.5%
Seth Henigan run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+6
76.6%
Jevyon Ducker run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
76.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 11 yds to the ArkSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
82.1%
S. Henigan run for 8 yds for a TD, (C. Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10END OF HALF
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:3021% → 23%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
79.5%
James Blackman run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+10
79.4%
Johnnie Lang run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
78.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 10 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
77.3%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
77.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 8 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
77.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 8 yds to the Memph 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:4122% → 21%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
78.2%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+16
78.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Adam Jones for 16 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
77.6%
Brian Snead run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-3
77.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+2
78.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Brian Snead for 2 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 9
OWN 35
-5
79.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Melique Straker) to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q3 12:13
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
79.0%
Ryan Hanson punt for 44 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for no gain to the Memph 30 MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Memph 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:1477% → 80%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
77.4%
Brandon Thomas run for 9 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
78.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 11 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
79.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 8 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 2
OPP 47
0
79.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+1
79.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 1
OPP 46
-1
79.7%
Seth Henigan run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 47 Seth Henigan fumbled, recovered by Memph Seth HeniganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4125% → 23%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
75.5%
James Blackman run for 4 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+1
75.0%
Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the Memph 48 Johnnie Lang fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Johnnie LangSimilar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
75.4%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
77.3%
Ryan Hanson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the Memph 11Similar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
76.7%
Ryan Hanson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the Memph 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14PUNT
14 plays · 39 yds · 7:1579% → 76%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
78.6%
Seth Henigan run for 12 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
78.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 5 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+9
78.9%
Sutton Smith run for 9 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
79.5%
Sutton Smith run for 7 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+5
80.6%
Sutton Smith run for 5 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
80.7%
Asa Martin run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+2
81.1%
Asa Martin run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+2
80.7%
Asa Martin run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+5
79.5%
Jevyon Ducker run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
81.1%
Jevyon Ducker run for no gain to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-5
80.9%
Seth Henigan sacked by Dennard Flowers for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 15
OPP 42
-8
79.0%
Seth Henigan sacked by Dane Motley and Kivon Bennett for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 23
50
0
77.5%
Joe Doyle punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 23
50
0
75.9%
Joe Doyle punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5625% → 22%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
75.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 2 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
75.5%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:03
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
76.8%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
77.7%
Ryan Hanson punt for 44 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for no gain to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 0:07
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
77.6%
Ryan Hanson punt for 44 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for no gain to the Memph 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 0:2078% → 91%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
77.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+9
77.5%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the left incomplete intended for IVORY, Javon broken up by JONES, Leon at the MEM44. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on JONES, Leon enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the MEM43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
79.3%
Brandon Thomas run for 6 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
79.3%
Brandon Thomas run for 6 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+51
91.2%
S. Henigan pass,to J. Scates for 51 yds for a TD, (C. Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 1:1012% → 33%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
88.4%
Johnnie Lang run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+44
87.5%
Brian Snead run for 29 yds to the MEMPHIS 37 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Cam'Ron Jackson) to the Memph 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
85.3%
BLACKMAN, James pass to the right incomplete intended for JONES, Adam thrown to the MEM0. PENALTY MEM Pass Interference on RUBIN, Greg enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the MEM7 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
67.5%
B. Snead run for 7 yds for a TD, (J. Blackman pass to J. Lang for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:3676% → 87%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+30
75.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 30 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
79.2%
Asa Martin run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+10
77.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 10 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+2
78.4%
Asa Martin run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 13:31
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
76.7%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
80.0%
Jevyon Ducker run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+5
79.7%
Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+1
78.7%
Jevyon Ducker run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
87.0%
Chris Howard 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:3321% → 65%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
78.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 9 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
75.9%
Johnnie Lang run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
76.4%
Brian Snead run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+7
76.6%
Marcel Murray run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+3
74.7%
AJ Mayer run for 3 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
74.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 15 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
72.1%
Brian Snead run for 6 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
71.4%
Brian Snead run for no gain to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+27
35.2%
J. Blackman pass,to J. Lang for 27 yds for a TD, (D. Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1450% → 93%
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 4 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
50.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for no gain to the Memph 29Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
48.5%
Seth Henigan run for no gain to the Memph 29Similar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+17
45.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 17 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
56.1%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the right incomplete intended for LEWIS, Eddie thrown to the ASU18. PENALTY ASU Offsides on HARDIMAN, Tim enforced 5 yards from the MEM46 to the ASU49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 5
OPP 49
+10
57.3%
Jevyon Ducker run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
93.2%
Jevyon Ducker 39 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · -37 yds · 0:5028% → 20%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
71.9%
Brian Snead run for no gain to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
73.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 5 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
71.6%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 5
OPP 49
-5
74.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Eddie Smith) to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 10
OWN 46
-5
79.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Mekhi Butler) to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 15
OWN 41
-32
80.1%
run for a loss of 32 yards to the ArkSt 9 fumbled, recovered by Memph Jaylon AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22TD
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:1595% → 98%
Q4 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
94.9%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q4 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
95.5%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
95.5%
Seth Henigan run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
95.5%
Seth Henigan run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.4%
B. Thomas run for 8 yds for a TD, (C. Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23END OF GAME
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:503% → 2%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
97.4%
James Blackman sacked by William Whitlow Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+6
97.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 6 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+6
98.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 6 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+8
98.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Adam Jones for 8 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+6
98.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 6 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+6
98.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 6 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:22
J. Blackman pass,to J. Lang for 27 yds for a TD, (D. Zvada KICK)
-36.2
TD · Q4 2:08
Jevyon Ducker 39 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+36
TD · Q4 13:31
B. Snead run for 7 yds for a TD, (J. Blackman pass to J. Lang for Two-Point Conversion)
-17.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com