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Win probability · HAW
modelHAW aheadDUQ aheadconfidence bandkey playHAW scoreDUQ score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:11 · Joey Corado punt for 15 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 6:17: B. Bruzdewicz 26 yd FG GOOD — DUQ win probability +1.9 pts (now 33%) (top driver: DUQ has the ball).
- TD · Q1 4:20: D. Parson run for 5 yds for a TD, (M. Shipley KICK) — HAW win probability +2.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Brian Bruzdewicz 30 yd FG GOOD — HAW win probability +12.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: DUQ has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:08: Penei Pavihi 50 Yd Interception Return (Matthew Shipley Kick) — HAW win probability +8.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: DUQ has the ball).
- FG · Q4 6:33: Matthew Shipley 29 Yd Field Goal — HAW win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HAW made the numbers' call on 8 of 8DUQ made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
- Q1 13:54HAW 4th & 7 at HAW 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snapGo for it50.1%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.2%average punt
- Q1 6:17DUQ 4th & 9 at HAW 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.0% before the snapGo for it48.7%−0.225% to convertField goalTheir call48.9%89% to makePunt47.5%−1.4average punt
- Q1 4:15DUQ 4th & 4 at HAW 45, down 4Close callPunted · 47.0% before the snapGo for it47.3%48% to convertField goal46.5%−0.825% to makePuntTheir call46.9%−0.3average punt
- Q1 0:23DUQ 4th & 4 at HAW 45, down 4Close callPunted · 46.5% before the snapGo for it46.7%48% to convertField goal45.7%−1.025% to makePuntTheir call46.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 14:07HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 14, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snapGo for it52.9%−0.539% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.4%average punt
- Q2 14:07HAW 4th & 6 at HAW 14, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snapGo for it52.9%−0.539% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.4%average punt
- Q2 11:53DUQ 4th & 5 at DUQ 42, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snapGo for it45.7%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.9%average punt
- Q2 9:55DUQ 4th & 2 at HAW 49, down 1Close callPunted · 46.5% before the snapGo for it46.6%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.0%−0.5average punt
- Q2 9:05DUQ 4th & 2 at HAW 49, down 1Close callPunted · 46.4% before the snapGo for it46.5%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.9%−0.6average punt
- Q2 2:31HAW 4th & 17 at DUQ 18, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snapGo for it54.2%−1.813% to convertField goalTheir call56.0%79% to makePunt50.9%−5.1average punt
- Q2 2:31DUQ 4th & 2 at midfield, down 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call44.8%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt43.4%−1.4average punt
- Q3 4:02DUQ 4th & 13 at HAW 24, down 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.6% before the snapGo for it19.7%−2.920% to convertField goalTheir call22.6%68% to makePunt12.6%−10.0average punt
- Q3 4:02HAW 4th & 21 at HAW 24, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snapGo for it73.8%−6.18% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.9%average punt
- Q3 1:22HAW 4th & 21 at HAW 24, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snapGo for it75.7%−6.68% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.3%average punt
- Q4 14:08DUQ 4th & 5 at DUQ 30, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snapGo for it8.9%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.3%average punt
- Q4 13:11DUQ 4th & 5 at DUQ 30, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snapGo for it8.4%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.6%average punt
- Q4 13:11HAW 4th & 2 at DUQ 7, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.0%53% to convertField goal97.7%−0.391% to makePunt96.1%−2.0average punt
- Q4 6:33HAW 4th & 12 at DUQ 12, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.5%−0.219% to convertField goalTheir call98.7%86% to makePunt97.8%−0.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HAW made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 4:20HAW Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.8%97% to makeGo for two53.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:08HAW Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.1%97% to makeGo for two91.0%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartHAWDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0669% → 69%
Q1 13:54
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
68.8%
Matthew Shipley punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dwayne Menders Jr. at the Duqsn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 2FG14 plays · 56 yds · 7:3731% → 33%
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
50
+7
68.8%
Joe Mischler pass complete to DeMarcus Ware for 7 yds to the Hawa 43Similar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
68.7%
Joe Mischler pass complete to Abdul Janneh for 4 yds to the Hawa 28Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+6
68.8%
Joe Mischler pass complete to Abdul Janneh for 6 yds to the Hawa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 3TD7 plays · 35 yds · 1:4668% → 70%
Q1 6:06
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+10
67.9%
Dedrick Parson run for 10 yds to the Duqsn 16 Dedrick Parson fumbled, recovered by Duqsn Eliki Tanuvasa for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
67.8%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Dior Scott for 5 yds to the Duqsn 11Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+6
67.5%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Dior Scott for 6 yds to the Duqsn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 4PUNT10 plays · 38 yds · 3:5231% → 32%
Q1 4:15
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+17
69.0%
Joe Mischler pass complete to Abdul Janneh for 17 yds to the Duqsn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
68.6%
Joe Mischler pass complete to Billy Lucas for 9 yds to the Duqsn 46Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+7
68.6%
Joe Mischler pass complete to Dwayne Menders Jr. for 7 yds to the Hawa 45Similar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
68.5%
Michael Berarducci punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Dior Scott at the Hawa 10Similar
Q1 0:23
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
67.9%
Michael Berarducci punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Dior Scott at the Hawa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:1668% → 67%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+3
68.2%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 3 yds to the Hawa 14Similar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 6
OWN 14
+39
67.2%
Matthew Shipley punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the HAWAII 47 DUQUESNE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jason Sweeney) to the Duqsn 47Similar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 6
OWN 14
+49
66.6%
Matthew Shipley punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the HAWAII 47 DUQUESNE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jason Sweeney) to the Duqsn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 2:1433% → 33%
HAWDrive 7TD5 plays · 14 yds · 0:5369% → 69%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
69.4%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 8 yds to the Duqsn 6Similar
Q2 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
69.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Parson,Dedrick rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Duq00, End Of Play PENALTY Hawaii Holding (Bernal-Wendt,Stephan) 10 yards from Duq02 to Duq12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
-5
69.4%
PENALTY Hawaii False Start (Manning,Ilm) 5 yards from Duq12 to Duq17. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 8PUNT10 plays · 26 yds · 1:5533% → 35%
Q2 9:55
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+15
67.9%
Berarducci,Michael punt 29 yards to the Hawaii43, out of bounds at Hawaii43 PENALTY Hawaii Roughing The Kicker (Pei,Meki) 15 yards from Duq28 to Duq43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
65.5%
Joe Mischler pass complete to DeMarcus Ware for 8 yds to the Hawa 49Similar
Q2 9:55
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
65.6%
Michael Berarducci punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Dior Scott at the Hawa 23Similar
Q2 9:05
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
65.5%
Michael Berarducci punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Dior Scott at the Hawa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 9MISSED FG15 plays · 59 yds · 6:3467% → 66%
Q2 9:05
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
67.4%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Jonah Panoke for no gain to the Hawa 29Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+11
66.6%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 11 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
68.4%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Dior Scott for 13 yds to the Duqsn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
69.2%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Dior Scott for 8 yds to the Duqsn 39Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 2
OPP 39
-4
69.2%
Joey Yellen sacked by Todd Hill for a loss of 4 yards to the Duqsn 43 Joey Yellen fumbled, recovered by Duqsn Austin Hopp , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+20
69.4%
Joey Yellen pass complete to James Phillips for 20 yds to the Duqsn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
70.4%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Dior Scott for 6 yds to the Duqsn 17Similar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
70.3%
PENALTY Hawaii False Start (Bernal-Wendt,Stephan) 5 yards from Duq11 to Duq16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 17
OPP 18
0
69.7%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei for no gain to the Duqsn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 10FG13 plays · 68 yds · 2:3134% → 28%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
65.8%
Joe Mischler pass complete to DeMarcus Ware for 8 yds to the Duqsn 28Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+10
65.7%
Joe Mischler pass complete to Abdul Janneh for 10 yds to the Duqsn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 2
50
+19
64.5%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Rahmon Hart Jr. for 19 yds to the Hawa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
60.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Perrantes,Darius pass incomplete short right to Janneh,Abdul broken up by Pei,Meki PENALTY Hawaii Targeting (Pei,Meki) 15 yards from Hawaii31 to Hawaii16, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 11INT20 plays · 72 yds · 8:2423% → 25%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+10
76.3%
Joe Mischler pass complete to Rahmon Hart Jr. for 10 yds to the Duqsn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 46
-5
74.6%
PENALTY Duq False Start (Oliver,Chris) 5 yards from Hawaii46 to Duq49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-10
75.3%
Joe Mischler sacked by Penei Pavihi for a loss of 10 yards to the Duqsn 39Similar
Q3 10:23
4TH & 17
OWN 39
+15
79.1%
Berarducci,Michael punt 46 yards to the Hawaii15 Scott,Dior return for loss of 6 yards to the Hawaii09 (Padezan,Tyler) PENALTY Hawaii Roughing The Kicker (Sims,Landon) 15 yards from Duq39 to Hawaii46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
75.1%
Joe Mischler pass complete to Abdul Janneh for 13 yds to the Hawa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+13
73.9%
Joe Mischler pass complete to Dwayne Menders Jr. for 13 yds to the Hawa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
74.3%
Joe Mischler pass complete to Billy Lucas for 4 yds to the Hawa 15Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+8
75.6%
Joe Mischler pass complete to Dwayne Menders Jr. for 8 yds to the Hawa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0982% → 83%
DUQDrive 13MISSED FG8 plays · 11 yds · 2:2524% → 16%
Q3 5:36
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+11
80.1%
Joe Mischler pass complete to Nick Leopold for 11 yds to the Hawa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 0 yds · 2:4086% → 85%
Q3 4:02
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+8
85.6%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Dior Scott for 8 yds to the Hawa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
85.7%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Jalen Walthall for 2 yds to the Hawa 33Similar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 12
OWN 33
-9
84.8%
Joey Yellen sacked by Kevin Kurzinger for a loss of 9 yards to the Hawa 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 15INT TD6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1415% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 0:577% → 1%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.2%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to DeMarcus Ware for 5 yds to the Duqsn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 17FG12 plays · 33 yds · 6:3899% → 99%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
98.7%
Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 19 yds to the Duqsn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
98.8%
Nasjzae Bryant-Lelei run for 11 yds to the Duqsn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+7
98.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Dior Scott for 7 yds to the Duqsn 7Similar
Q4 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
98.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Parson,Dedrick rush left for 1 yard loss to the Duq05 (Muehlbauer,Jon) PENALTY Duq Face Mask (D'Orazio,Lucas) 2 yards from Duq04 to Duq02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
98.8%
PENALTY Hawaii False Start (Manning,Ilm) 5 yards from Duq02 to Duq07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-9
98.8%
Brayden Schager sacked by Todd Hill for a loss of 9 yards to the Duqsn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 18TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:181% → 1%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
99.3%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Dwayne Menders Jr. for 7 yds to the Duqsn 43Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
99.3%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Logan Lutz for 5 yds to the Hawa 36Similar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
99.3%
Dwayne Menders Jr. 29 Yd pass from Darius Perrantes (Darius Perrantes Pass to Rahmon Hart Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 19INT5 plays · 32 yds · 0:301% → 1%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+32
99.5%
Darius Perrantes pass complete to Billy Lucas for 32 yds to the Hawa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 20END OF GAME6 plays · 8 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
Q4 1:40
2ND & 3
OWN 30
-5
99.8%
PENALTY Hawaii False Start (Manning,Ilm) 5 yards from Hawaii30 to Hawaii25. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:00
Brian Bruzdewicz 30 yd FG GOOD
+12.1
TD · Q4 14:08
Penei Pavihi 50 Yd Interception Return (Matthew Shipley Kick)
+8.7
TD · Q1 4:20
D. Parson run for 5 yds for a TD, (M. Shipley KICK)
+2.5