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MASS

Massachusetts 33 at Arkansas State 35

ARST
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreMASS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-1.1ARST 83.9%Cameron Carson 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 7 · Q1 8:41
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:41 · Cameron Carson 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialDefense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Pregame prior+32.5Home team on offense+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Defense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:28: George Johnson III 19 Yd pass from Brady Olson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — MASS win probability +12.2 pts (now 33%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:09: Marcel Murray run for 75 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +20.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:31: Johnnie Lang run for 12 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK) — ARST win probability +9.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:18: Isaac Ross 27 Yd pass from Garrett Dzuro (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — MASS win probability +15.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:18: Timeout ARKANSAS ST, clock 00:18 — MASS win probability +10.8 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8MASS made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 13:11MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:41MASS 4th & 3 at ARST 19, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%−<0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:31ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:44ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 11, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:28MASS 4th & 5 at ARST 26, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:56ARST 4th & 15 at ARST 21, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:32MASS 4th & 9 at ARST 39, down 11
    Close callPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    13.1%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:35ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 12, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:37MASS 4th & 6 at ARST 44, down 11
    Close callPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    12.2%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:38ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 12, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:35MASS 4th & 3 at ARST 18, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−2.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:44MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 29, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:44ARST 4th & 8 at MASS 30, up 9
    Close callWent for it · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.7%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    87.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−1.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:00ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 28, up 8
    Close callPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:18MASS 4th & 7 at ARST 42, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%−1.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−2.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:45ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 48, up 8
    Close callPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:45MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 23, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.4%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MASS made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 11:32ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:12ARST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:10ARST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:09MASS Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:28MASS Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    27.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    27.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:09ARST Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:31ARST Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:07MASS Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    11.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    11.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:18MASS Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    13.8%−10.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    23.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MASSDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4615% → 15%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
85.5%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+8
85.5%
Brady Olson pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 8 yds to the UMass 20Similar
Q1 14:57
3RD & 2
OWN 20
-5
85.5%
UMASS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UMass 15Similar
Q1 14:57
3RD & 7
OWN 15
0
85.5%
Brady Olson run for no gain to the UMass 15Similar
Q1 13:11
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
85.1%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 51 yds, downed at the ArkSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 1:3985% → 86%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+23
85.1%
Johnnie Lang run for 23 yds to the UMass 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+29
85.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 29 yds to the UMass 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
85.2%
Johnnie Lang run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 17Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+17
85.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 17 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3FG
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:5115% → 16%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
85.2%
Brady Olson pass complete to Cameron Sullivan-Brown for 15 yds to the UMass 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
85.1%
Jordan Mahoney run for 5 yds to the UMass 45Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+29
85.0%
Brady Olson pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 29 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
84.9%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+4
84.9%
Brady Olson pass complete to Zamar Wise for 4 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+3
85.0%
Ellis Merriweather run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+37
83.9%
Cameron Carson 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:0384% → 83%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
84.1%
Johnnie Lang run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-9
84.1%
James Blackman sacked by Nahji Logan for a loss of 9 yards to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 16
OWN 16
+9
84.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 9 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 6:31
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
83.4%
William Przystup punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5INT TD
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:1916% → 15%
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
83.6%
Isaiah Holiness run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 18Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 13
OWN 18
0
83.6%
Ellis Merriweather run for no gain to the UMass 18Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 13
OWN 18
-27
85.1%
Trevian Thomas 27 Yd Interception Return (Dominic Zvada Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6INT
16 plays · 67 yds · 6:1615% → 16%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.8%
Brady Olson run for 5 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
84.7%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 5 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.7%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
84.8%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 5 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+7
84.6%
Brady Olson pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 7 yds to the UMass 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
84.4%
Brady Olson pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 2 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+5
84.3%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+11
84.4%
Brady Olson run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
84.0%
Brady Olson pass complete to Cameron Sullivan-Brown for 14 yds to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
83.7%
Onuma Dieke run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 16
0
83.7%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+14
84.1%
OLSON, Brady pass to the left incomplete intended for SULLIVAN-BROWN, Cam broken up by JOHNSON, Samy at the ASU0. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Samy enforced 14 yards to the ASU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
83.9%
George Johnson III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-6
83.7%
Brady Olson run for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q2 13:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
84.2%
Brady Olson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1288% → 88%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
87.9%
Brian Snead run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 8
OWN 11
0
88.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for no gain to the ArkSt 11 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 8
OWN 11
0
87.8%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 8
OWN 11
0
88.1%
William Przystup punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:1615% → 13%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
85.4%
Ellis Merriweather run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
85.0%
Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+4
85.5%
Brady Olson pass complete to Isaac Ross for 4 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 4
OPP 25
-1
85.9%
Ellis Merriweather run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 5
OPP 26
0
86.6%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 2:3290% → 89%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
89.8%
LANG, Johnnie rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the ASU31, End of Play. PENALTY UMA Offsides on BOYKIN, Noah enforced 5 yards from the ASU26 to the ASU31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 5
OWN 31
-5
89.9%
James Blackman sacked by Jalen Stewart for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
89.7%
Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 7
OWN 29
-8
89.4%
James Blackman sacked by Marcus Cushnie for a loss of 8 yards to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q2 7:56
4TH & 15
OWN 21
0
89.1%
William Przystup punt for 19 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2413% → 12%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
87.0%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
87.1%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for no gain to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
87.3%
UMASS Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:32
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
88.0%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang at the ArkSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5790% → 89%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
89.9%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+5
90.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Marcel Murray for 5 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 3
OWN 15
-3
89.9%
AJ Mayer run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q2 4:35
4TH & 6
OWN 12
0
89.1%
Ryan Hanson punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:5812% → 11%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
88.5%
Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the UMass 45Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 9
OWN 45
-4
88.6%
UMASS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Brady Olson) to the UMass 31Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 23
OWN 31
+15
89.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Justin Parks) to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
88.1%
Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
88.0%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
88.2%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:37
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
89.2%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 35 yds, downed at the ArkSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:5990% → 90%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-2
90.4%
Johnnie Lang run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 7Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 12
OWN 7
-2
90.2%
Johnnie Lang run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 14
OWN 5
+7
90.0%
Marcel Murray run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 12Similar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 7
OWN 12
0
90.1%
William Przystup punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Isaac Ross at the ArkSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14FG
9 plays · 31 yds · 1:0310% → 13%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
89.9%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+10
90.3%
Ellis Merriweather run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
89.5%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
89.7%
Brady Olson pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 7 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+7
89.1%
Brady Olson pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 7 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
88.8%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
89.0%
Brady Olson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+7
89.6%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 7 yds to the ArkSt 18Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+36
86.8%
Cameron Carson 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:2589% → 88%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
89.0%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
87.6%
Johnnie Lang run for no gain to the ArkSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:4586% → 91%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
85.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 15 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
86.5%
BLACKMAN, James pass to the right incomplete intended for TRAORE, Seydou broken up by DAVIS, Tanner at the UMA30 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY UMA Targeting on POWELL, Te'Rai enforced 15 yards from the ASU44 to the UMA41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
86.6%
Johnnie Lang run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 42Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+24
86.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 24 yds to the UMass 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
91.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 18 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0111% → 20%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.1%
Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
88.5%
Ellis Merriweather run for 10 yds to the UMass 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
88.3%
Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+3
88.3%
Ellis Merriweather run for 3 yds to the UMass 44Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+43
88.2%
Brady Olson pass complete to Cameron Sullivan-Brown for 43 yds to the ArkSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
86.7%
Brady Olson run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+8
86.7%
OLSON, Brady pass to the left incomplete intended for SULLIVAN-BROWN, Cam thrown to the ASU0. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Samy enforced 8 yards to the ASU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
87.2%
Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.7%
Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.3%
James Blackman pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 3:3518% → 33%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
82.4%
Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the UMass 39Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-1
82.5%
Ellis Merriweather run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 38Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+13
83.5%
Brady Olson pass complete to Ellis Merriweather for 13 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+23
81.1%
Ellis Merriweather run for 23 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
79.5%
Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+5
79.5%
Ellis Merriweather run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+19
67.3%
George Johnson III 19 Yd pass from Brady Olson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
87.2%
Marcel Murray run for 75 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2515% → 14%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.8%
Garrett Dzuro run for 1 yd to the UMass 26Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
84.9%
Zamar Wise run for 3 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q3 5:09
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
85.1%
Garrett Dzuro pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
86.4%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang at the ArkSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:1387% → 97%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
87.3%
Marcel Murray run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+28
88.0%
Marcel Murray run for 28 yds to the UMass 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
88.7%
Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
88.6%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
87.9%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+18
87.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 18 yds to the UMass 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
88.0%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
97.3%
Johnnie Lang run for 12 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 5:247% → 18%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.7%
Garrett Dzuro run for 1 yd to the UMass 26Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
92.7%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 7 yds to the UMass 33Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
92.3%
Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
92.1%
Ellis Merriweather run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+4
92.9%
Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+53
92.4%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to George Johnson III for 53 yds to the ArkSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
90.4%
Garrett Dzuro run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
90.4%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Josiah Johnson for no gain to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
81.6%
Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds for a TD, (Garrett Dzuro pass to Ellis Merriweather for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0590% → 90%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
89.8%
Marcel Murray run for no gain to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
89.6%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+7
89.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Marcel Murray for 7 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 10:00
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
90.0%
Ryan Hanson punt for 43 yds, downed at the UMass 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 29 yds · 4:4213% → 13%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
86.8%
Ellis Merriweather run for 6 yds to the UMass 35Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+9
85.5%
Ellis Merriweather run for 9 yds to the UMass 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
85.2%
Ellis Merriweather run for 5 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+6
84.4%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Isaac Ross for 6 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
83.9%
Garrett Dzuro run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+6
86.5%
Ellis Merriweather run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+1
84.6%
Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
87.0%
Garrett Dzuro pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3397% → 97%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
96.8%
Johnnie Lang run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
96.8%
Johnnie Lang run for no gain to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
96.6%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:45
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
96.7%
William Przystup punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Isaac Ross at the UMass 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 27TD
13 plays · 81 yds · 3:279% → 28%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
90.6%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 4 yds to the UMass 23Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-6
90.1%
Garrett Dzuro sacked by Kivon Bennett for a loss of 6 yards to the UMass 17Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+6
91.4%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Isaac Ross for 6 yds to the UMass 23Similar
Q4 3:45
4TH & 6
OWN 23
+12
91.6%
Garrett Dzuro run for 12 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
92.4%
Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the UMass 37Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
92.2%
Garrett Dzuro run for 2 yds to the UMass 39Similar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+16
92.3%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Ellis Merriweather for 1 yd to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Kenneth Harris) to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
90.3%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 18 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
86.7%
Garrett Dzuro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
87.9%
Garrett Dzuro pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:18
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+27
72.1%
Isaac Ross 27 Yd pass from Garrett Dzuro (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
96.8%
[NH] Kneel down by ASU at UMA47 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:09
Marcel Murray run for 75 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK)
+20
TD · Q4 0:18
Isaac Ross 27 Yd pass from Garrett Dzuro (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-15.8
TD · Q3 5:28
George Johnson III 19 Yd pass from Brady Olson (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com