Try the model
NCSU

NC State 30 at North Carolina 27

UNC
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2022 · Kenan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGFGEnd of GameTD-30.8UNC 12.9%Devin Carter 26 Yd pass from BenFinley (Christopher Dunn Kick)AWAY 24 - HOME 17 · Q4 3:54
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:54 · Devin Carter 26 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Christopher Dunn Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 158Pregame prior+1.3Home team on offense−28.7Garbage-time factor−11.4Score differential−4.2Time remaining−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 7:53: Drake Maye 14 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick) — UNC win probability +27.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 3:54: Devin Carter 26 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Christopher Dunn Kick) — NCSU win probability +30.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 0:00: Antoine Green 4 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick) — UNC win probability +41.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. FG · OT 0:00: Noah Burnette 26 Yd Field Goal — UNC win probability +16.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Christopher Dunn 31 Yd Field Goal — NCSU win probability +26.3 pts (now 47%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 9 of 11NCSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 14:09UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:26UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:26NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:13UNC 4th & 9 at NCSU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:03NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:55UNC 4th & 12 at UNC 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:40UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 33, down 11
    Close callPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:33NCSU 4th & 18 at NCSU 11, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−3.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:38UNC 4th & 16 at UNC 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−3.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:16NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:03UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:24NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:44UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 28, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:26NCSU 4th & 4 at UNC 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    63.6%−2.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−1.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:31NCSU 4th & 6 at UNC 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−7.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:31UNC 4th & 4 at NCSU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    34.7%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−13.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:41NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−2.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:23NCSU 4th & 15 at NCSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−10.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:36UNC 4th & 5 at NCSU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.6%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%−3.9
    85% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−6.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:00UNC 4th & 4 at NCSU 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−19.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−18.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 13:20NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:38NCSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:03UNC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:53UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.8
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:54NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:00UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.9%−7.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5170% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.7%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.7%
Elijah Green run for 6 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q1 14:28
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
69.6%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q1 14:09
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+9
69.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 45 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 9 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 0:4930% → 31%
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
69.6%
Jordan Houston run for 10 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+55
69.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Devin Carter for 52 yds to the UNC 5 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (3 Yards) to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
68.8%
Jack Chambers 2 Yd Run (Christopher Dunn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4869% → 68%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
68.5%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q1 12:26
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+3
68.4%
Ben Kiernan punt for 44 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 3 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0032% → 32%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
68.4%
Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the NCSt 33Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
68.1%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Michael AllenSimilar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+5
68.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Kaimon Rucker) to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
67.9%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
68.0%
Caden Noonkester punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5FG
16 plays · 62 yds · 6:1368% → 67%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
68.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 7 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
68.0%
Elijah Green run for no gain to the NCaro 27Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
67.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 4 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
67.5%
Maye, Drake pass incomplete to Green, Antoine, PENALTY NCSTATE pass interference (White, Aydan) 15 yards to the UNC46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
67.8%
Elijah Green run for 5 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+2
67.7%
Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+4
67.2%
Drake Maye run for 4 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
67.1%
Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the NCSt 42Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+8
66.8%
Elijah Green run for 8 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+4
66.7%
Elijah Green run for 4 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
66.8%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+11
66.7%
Elijah Green run for 11 yds to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
66.5%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+1
66.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 1 yd to the NCSt 18Similar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
65.8%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+37
66.9%
Noah Burnette 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:1033% → 34%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
66.6%
Jordan Houston run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 23Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
66.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jordan Houston for 6 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
66.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Darryl Jones for 2 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q1 3:03
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
66.4%
Caden Noonkester punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:0866% → 64%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-8
65.7%
Drake Maye sacked by Drake Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 11Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 18
OWN 11
+3
65.4%
Drake Maye run for 3 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q1 1:54
3RD & 15
OWN 14
-5
64.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Ed Montilus) to the NCaro 9Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 20
OWN 9
+8
64.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to D.J. Jones for 8 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q1 0:55
4TH & 12
OWN 17
0
64.0%
Ben Kiernan punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 3:1736% → 45%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
64.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 38, lat. to Michael Allen for 6 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+5
64.1%
Michael Allen run for 5 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+8
63.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 8 yds Keyon Lesane fumbled, forced by Cedric Gray, recovered by NCSt Keyon Lesane for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
63.3%
Michael Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 44Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+7
63.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 7 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+9
62.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 9 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
54.9%
Terrell Timmons Jr. 28 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Christopher Dunn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5857% → 55%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
56.2%
Drake Maye run for 3 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
55.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 4 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
54.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 2:0746% → 46%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-16
54.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 16 yards to the NCSt 3 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NCSt Ben FinleySimilar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 26
OWN 3
+1
54.4%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the NCSt 4Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 25
OWN 4
+7
54.6%
Jordan Houston run for 7 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 18
OWN 11
0
54.0%
Caden Noonkester punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:3054% → 63%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
54.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+10
51.5%
Maye, Drake pass incomplete, PENALTY NCSTATE holding (Pitts Jr., Derrek) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
50
+12
52.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 12 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
52.6%
Elijah Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 39Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+12
51.9%
Elijah Green run for 12 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
52.7%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to John CopenhaverSimilar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+18
52.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 18 yds to the NCSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
52.3%
Elijah Green run for no gain to the NCSt 9Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
63.4%
Elijah Green 9 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12FUMBLE
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:4743% → 46%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
57.4%
Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the NCSt 43Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+10
57.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Devin Carter for 10 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+22
56.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Michael Allen for 7 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (DeAndre Boykins) to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
55.2%
Michael Allen run for 7 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+2
54.4%
Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the NCaro 16Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
54.4%
Jack Chambers run for no gain to the NCaro 16 Jack Chambers fumbled, forced by Don Chapman, recovered by NCaro Cedric GraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:3259% → 56%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
58.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 12 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-9
59.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Elijah Green for 1 yd to the NCaro 29 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (J.J. Jones) to the NCaro 19Similar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 19
OWN 19
+5
58.3%
Drake Maye run for 5 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 14
OWN 24
0
58.0%
Drake Maye run for no gain to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 14
OWN 24
-2
56.8%
Drake Maye sacked by Davin Vann for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 22Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 16
OWN 22
+19
56.4%
Ben Kiernan punt for 41 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 19 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14FG
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:3847% → 56%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
52.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 7 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+2
52.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Porter Rooks for 2 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+5
52.2%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
51.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+18
51.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Cedd Seabrough for 18 yds to the NCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
49.5%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+29
43.7%
Christopher Dunn 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3553% → 52%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.4%
Michael Allen run for no gain to the NCSt 25Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
47.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 5 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
46.4%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q3 13:16
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+12
48.0%
Caden Noonkester punt for 53 yds , Josh Downs returns for 12 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:1349% → 45%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
48.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 6 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+3
49.7%
Elijah Green run for 3 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+5
49.5%
NC STATE Penalty, Encroachment (Cory Durden) to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
49.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Ed Montilus) to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+10
47.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 10 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
50.0%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 5
OWN 48
-2
49.0%
Drake Maye run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 46Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 7
OWN 46
+12
45.3%
Ben Kiernan punt for 41 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 12 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3956% → 57%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
43.9%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Timothy McKay) to the NCSt 20Similar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
44.4%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Darryl JonesSimilar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+4
44.7%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jordan Houston for 4 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+9
45.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Porter Rooks for 9 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q3 8:24
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
43.1%
Caden Noonkester punt for 67 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4045% → 42%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
44.5%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
44.4%
Elijah Green run for 1 yd to the NCaro 21Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+7
42.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 7 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 6:44
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
42.0%
Ben Kiernan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 5:1360% → 66%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
39.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Devin Carter for 14 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
37.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Devin Carter for 13 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
36.0%
Ben Finley run for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard line Ben Finley fumbled, recovered by NCSt Dylan McMahon , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 15
50
0
36.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Darryl Jones for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 15
50
+11
37.0%
Michael Allen run for 11 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+9
35.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Porter Rooks for 9 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
32.2%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Cedd SeabroughSimilar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-7
32.2%
Michael Allen run for 8 yds to the NCaro 22 NC STATE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Derrick Eason) to the NCaro 37Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 17
OPP 37
+11
34.2%
Michael Allen run for 11 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 1:31
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+43
34.3%
Christopher Dunn 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20MISSED FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 5:5440% → 35%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
40.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
39.6%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+15
37.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 15 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
39.4%
Elijah Green run for 9 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+5
41.3%
Elijah Green run for 5 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
40.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 16 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
41.9%
Elijah Green run for 1 yd to the NCSt 26Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+5
41.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 5 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
38.7%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Gavin BlackwellSimilar
Q4 12:31
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+14
35.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 14 yds to the NCSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
40.9%
Drake Maye run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 11Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+1
40.5%
Elijah Green run for 1 yd to the NCSt 10Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
37.6%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 0
OPP 10
+27
34.8%
Noah Burnette 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5673% → 73%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
27.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Darryl Jones for 5 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-5
24.4%
Ben Finley sacked by Myles Murphy for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 20 NC STATE Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Ben Finley) to the NCSt 20Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
26.0%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Jordan HoustonSimilar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
26.8%
Caden Noonkester punt for 18 yds, downed at the NCSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:4836% → 65%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
35.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 18 yds to the NCSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
37.5%
Elijah Green run for 4 yds to the NCSt 16Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+2
37.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 2 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
64.8%
Drake Maye 14 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:3045% → 44%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
54.9%
Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
52.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Cedd Seabrough for 9 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
50.7%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Terrell Timmons Jr.Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
50.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Michael Allen for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 15
OWN 33
0
55.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Chandler Zavala for no gain to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 5:23
4TH & 15
OWN 33
0
56.2%
Caden Noonkester punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24INT
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:3759% → 59%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
59.4%
Elijah Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 11
OWN 26
0
58.5%
Drake Maye pass intercepted Tanner Ingle return for no gain to the NCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25TD
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:5256% → 87%
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
44.1%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
43.8%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+26
12.9%
Devin Carter 26 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Christopher Dunn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26TD
21 plays · 75 yds · 3:5423% → 63%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
22.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 19 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
26.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Elijah Green for 14 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
28.8%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
27.0%
Drake Maye run for 3 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+4
27.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 4 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+5
20.2%
Maye, Drake pass incomplete to Blackwell, Gavin, PENALTY NCSTATE offside (Pitts Jr., Derrek) 5 yards to the NCSTATE30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
25.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Elijah Green for 3 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+9
27.9%
Drake Maye run for 9 yds to the NCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
27.8%
Elijah Green run for 5 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 5
OPP 13
0
25.8%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
21.0%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q4 0:36
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+9
19.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 9 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
25.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Elijah Green for 2 yds to the NCSt 2Similar
Q4 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
25.4%
Elijah Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 4Similar
Q4 0:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
21.5%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to John CopenhaverSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
62.8%
Antoine Green 4 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 27FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0066% → 80%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
65.6%
Elijah Green run for 3 yds to the NCSt 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+12
65.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 12 yds to the NCSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
65.6%
Elijah Green run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 14Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+6
64.3%
Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the NCSt 8Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
63.3%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
80.1%
Noah Burnette 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 28FG
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0029% → 47%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
71.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Michael Allen for 12 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
71.4%
Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 9
-5
71.4%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Michael Allen) to the NCaro 14Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
73.4%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 14
0
79.6%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+31
53.3%
Christopher Dunn 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 29FG
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0059% → 72%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
41.1%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+15
41.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Devin Carter for 15 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
41.1%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
41.1%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Darryl JonesSimilar
OT2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
43.6%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Kameron WalkerSimilar
OT2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
28.4%
Christopher Dunn 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 30MISSED FG
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0042% → 35%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
42.2%
Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+5
42.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 5 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
38.6%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
34.9%
Noah Burnette 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:00
Antoine Green 4 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick)
+41.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-34.9
TD · Q4 3:54
Devin Carter 26 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Christopher Dunn Kick)
-30.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com