2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreNCSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:07 · James Turner 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 4:46: Christopher Dunn 30 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 42%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 4:27: Ben Finley pass incomplete — LOU win probability +14.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:46: Ben Finley pass complete to Michael Allen for 34 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +15.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- FG · Q4 13:57: James Turner 30 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +9.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:05: Jawhar Jordan 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — LOU win probability +6.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 10NCSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
- Q1 13:06LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snapGo for it61.9%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.9%average punt
- Q1 11:25NCSU 4th & 21 at NCSU 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snapGo for it37.6%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.9%average punt
- Q1 8:08LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 41, tiedClose callPunted · 61.8% before the snapGo for it61.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.7%−0.2average punt
- Q1 2:30NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snapGo for it38.7%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.9%average punt
- Q2 13:54LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snapGo for it60.4%−0.626% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.0%average punt
- Q2 11:44NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 13, tiedClose callPunted · 38.4% before the snapGo for it39.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.4%−0.9average punt
- Q2 9:33LOU 4th & 7 at NCSU 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.1% before the snapGo for it61.7%−0.230% to convertField goalTheir call61.9%89% to makePunt58.5%−3.4average punt
- Q2 4:46NCSU 4th & 10 at LOU 13, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.2% before the snapGo for it35.6%−0.926% to convertField goalTheir call36.5%85% to makePunt30.4%−6.1average punt
- Q2 2:26NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 38, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snapGo for it24.6%−0.826% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.4%average punt
- Q2 0:00LOU 4th & 2 at NCSU 5, up 8Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 75.4% before the snapGo for it76.7%51% to convertField goalTheir call75.2%−1.492% to makePunt68.2%−8.5average punt
- Q3 13:27NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 39, down 11Close callPunted · 21.8% before the snapGo for it22.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.8%−0.2average punt
- Q3 10:33LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 46, up 11Close callPunted · 79.7% before the snapGo for it80.1%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.8%−0.3average punt
- Q3 5:43LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 36, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snapGo for it68.1%−0.940% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.0%average punt
- Q3 2:20NCSU 4th & 18 at NCSU 45, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snapGo for it28.2%−3.313% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.5%average punt
- Q4 13:57LOU 4th & 10 at NCSU 13, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.5% before the snapGo for it68.7%−2.426% to convertField goalTheir call71.1%85% to makePunt57.2%−13.9average punt
- Q4 12:16NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt17.2%−3.8average punt
- Q4 6:57NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 39, down 12Close callWent for it · 6.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.2%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.3%average punt
- Q4 5:07LOU 4th & 1 at NCSU 10, up 12Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 94.8% before the snapGo for it94.9%71% to convertField goalTheir call93.3%−1.688% to makePunt89.5%−5.3average punt
- Q4 4:34NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 41, down 15Close callWent for it · 3.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.8%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.0%average punt
- Q4 1:04LOU 4th & 11 at NCSU 25, up 15Close callWent for it · 98.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.9%−0.325% to convertField goal98.2%66% to makePunt97.2%−1.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q3 7:46NCSU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.2%97% to makeGo for two32.0%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartLOUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 12 yds · 1:4964% → 64%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
63.8%
Brock Domann pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for a loss of 10 yards to the Lvile 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -11 yds · 1:2936% → 36%
Q1 12:51
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-6
63.6%
Jack Chambers sacked by Monty Montgomery for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 32Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 16
OWN 32
-5
63.8%
Jack Chambers sacked by Yasir Abdullah and Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 27Similar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 21
OWN 27
+4
63.8%
Caden Noonkester punt for 53 yds , Braden Smith returns for 4 yds to the Lvile 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 27 yds · 3:0664% → 63%
Q1 10:29
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+11
63.4%
Brock Domann pass complete to Marshon Ford for 11 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT13 plays · 33 yds · 5:2637% → 37%
Q1 6:15
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+6
62.9%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 6 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+5
62.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Illegal Formation (5 Yards) to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+20
62.0%
Michael Allen run for 30 yds to the LOUISVILLE 26 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 44Similar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
62.6%
Caden Noonkester punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 30 yds · 3:2863% → 62%
Q1 1:07
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+13
62.2%
Brock Domann pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 13 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
3RD & 9
OWN 44
-2
63.0%
Brock Domann sacked by Drake Thomas and Tanner Ingle for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 42Similar
Q2 13:54
4TH & 11
OWN 42
-2
61.9%
Mark Vassett punt for 52 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0238% → 37%
Q2 11:44
4TH & 1
OWN 13
0
62.9%
Caden Noonkester punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7FG6 plays · 41 yds · 2:0164% → 64%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
50
+38
64.4%
Brock Domann pass complete to Marshon Ford for 38 yds to the NCSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8FG15 plays · 62 yds · 4:4336% → 42%
Q2 9:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
64.5%
(09:21) FINLEY, Ben pass to the left incomplete intended for TIMMONS, Terrell thrown to the NCS44, clock 09:17. PENALTY LOU Pass Interference on BROWNLEE, Jarvis enforced 15 yards to the NCS40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
50
+17
61.7%
Ben Finley pass complete to Darryl Jones for 17 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+14
62.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Darryl Jones for 14 yds to the Lvile 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 2:0127% → 26%
Q2 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
73.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Porter Rooks for 7 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
73.0%
Ben Finley pass complete to Porter Rooks for 7 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
72.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jordan Houston for 3 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-4
72.8%
Ben Finley sacked by Yasir Abdullah for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 38Similar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
74.0%
Caden Noonkester punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10FG14 plays · 61 yds · 2:1873% → 78%
Q2 1:55
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+2
74.5%
Brock Domann pass complete to Maurice Turner for 2 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
75.8%
Brock Domann pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 8 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
77.2%
Brock Domann pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 17 yds to the NCSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2323% → 21%
LOUDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 2:4480% → 80%
Q3 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+8
79.4%
Brock Domann pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 8 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+8
79.5%
Brock Domann pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 8 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+8
80.9%
Brock Domann pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 8 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13TD5 plays · 87 yds · 2:3220% → 37%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
79.9%
Ben Finley pass complete to Darryl Jones for 12 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
79.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Darryl Jones for 17 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
63.0%
Ben Finley pass complete to Michael Allen for 34 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 1:5970% → 69%
NCSUDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 3:1931% → 30%
Q3 4:49
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+24
68.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Julian Gray for 24 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 15
OWN 48
-6
66.8%
run for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 42 fumbled, recovered by NCSt Ben FinleySimilar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 18
OWN 45
0
70.3%
Caden Noonkester punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16FG11 plays · 66 yds · 3:1471% → 84%
Q3 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+15
70.9%
(01:40) DOMANN, Brock pass up the middle incomplete intended for HUGGINS-BRUCE, Ahmari thrown to the NCS36, clock 01:35. PENALTY NCS Pass Interference on FAGAN, Cyrus enforced 15 yards to the LOU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+10
74.5%
(14:53) DOMANN, Brock pass to the right incomplete intended for HUDSON, Tyler thrown to the NCS0, clock 14:54. PENALTY NCS Pass Interference on BATTLE, Shyheim enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the NCS13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17DOWNS6 plays · 20 yds · 1:3120% → 20%
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
80.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 11 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
79.6%
(13:10) FINLEY, Ben pass to the left incomplete thrown to the NCS45, clock 13:09. PENALTY LOU Offsides on MONTGOMERY, Monty enforced 5 yards from the NCS36 to the NCS41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18TD4 plays · 45 yds · 2:0987% → 93%
Q4 10:51
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+36
87.2%
Brock Domann pass complete to Tyler Hudson for 36 yds to the NCSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19DOWNS7 plays · 15 yds · 2:598% → 7%
Q4 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-4
91.7%
Ben Finley sacked by Ashton Gillotte and Dezmond Tell for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 20Similar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 14
OWN 20
+19
92.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 19 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
90.8%
Ben Finley sacked by Yasir Abdullah for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 35Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+2
92.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jordan Houston for 2 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+2
92.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jordan Houston for 2 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20FG7 plays · 29 yds · 1:4395% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21DOWNS6 plays · 15 yds · 0:234% → 3%
Q4 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+15
96.5%
(04:54) FINLEY, Ben pass to the right incomplete intended for JONES, Darryl thrown to the NCS33, clock 04:50. PENALTY LOU Pass Interference on RILEY, Quincy enforced 15 yards to the NCS41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22DOWNS8 plays · 16 yds · 4:2698% → 99%
Q4 1:23
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-5
98.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dez Melton) to the NCSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23INT7 plays · 46 yds · 0:522% → 3%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Porter Rooks for 6 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
97.5%
NC STATE Penalty, Illegal Touch-Pass on ROOKS, Porter enforced (Porter Rooks) to the NCSt 45Similar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+10
97.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Porter Rooks for 10 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
97.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Julian Gray for 16 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:46
Ben Finley pass complete to Michael Allen for 34 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)
-15.1
KEY PLAY · Q2 4:27
Ben Finley pass incomplete
+14.8
FG · Q4 13:57
James Turner 30 yd FG GOOD
+9.2