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BC

Boston College 21 at NC State 20

NCSU
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:47 · Caden Noonkester punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jaelen Gill at the BC 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Pregame prior+2.0Home team on offense+20.3Garbage-time factor+15.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.5Score differential+2.3Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:30: Emmett Morehead pass complete to Zay Flowers for 17 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK) — BC win probability +2.8 pts (now 16%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 11:11: Christopher Dunn 45 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:13: Emmett Morehead pass complete to Zay Flowers for 35 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK) — BC win probability +11.0 pts (now 23%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:14: Emmett Morehead pass complete to Joseph Griffin Jr. for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK) — BC win probability +67.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:14: MJ Morris pass incomplete to Thayer Thomas — NCSU win probability +18.8 pts (now 32%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9BC made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 12:18BC 4th & 7 at BC 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:51BC 4th & 16 at BC 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:42BC 4th & 3 at NCSU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    11.4%−0.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:57NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:21BC 4th & 9 at BC 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:21NCSU 4th & 9 at BC 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    85.0%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:37BC 4th & 13 at BC 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:21NCSU 4th & 1 at BC 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    84.0%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    81.2%−3.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:54BC 4th & 18 at BC 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−1.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:36NCSU 4th & 2 at BC 13, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.1%−0.3
    85% to make
    Punt
    80.8%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:34NCSU 4th & 12 at NCSU 16, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:11NCSU 4th & 13 at BC 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    82.6%−3.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:40NCSU 4th & 12 at BC 49, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−2.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:44BC 4th & 17 at BC 15, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−3.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:28BC 4th & 7 at NCSU 37, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    20.5%−1.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−2.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:04NCSU 4th & 22 at NCSU 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−4.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:34BC 4th & 4 at BC 32, down 6
    Close callPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:41BC 4th & 7 at BC 30, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%−1.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:47NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 21, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:20NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:42NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:30BC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:13BC Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:14BC Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−13.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:4214% → 14%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
86.5%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Zay Flowers for 19 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
86.5%
Pat Garwo III run for 1 yd to the BC 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 43
-5
86.5%
Emmett Morehead sacked by Isaiah Moore for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 38
+9
86.5%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Alex Broome for 9 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
85.7%
Danny Longman punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 88 yds · 1:5886% → 86%
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+23
85.7%
MJ Morris pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 23 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
85.7%
MJ Morris run for 1 yd to the NCSt 36Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+24
85.7%
Julian Gray run for 24 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
85.9%
Jordan Houston run for 13 yds to the BC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
86.3%
MJ Morris pass complete to Trent Pennix for 27 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:2914% → 14%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.9%
Alex Broome run for no gain to the BC 25Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
85.9%
Emmett Morehead sacked by Drake Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the BC 17Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+7
86.0%
Alex Broome run for 7 yds to the BC 19Similar
Q1 7:51
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
86.0%
Danny Longman punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:0986% → 88%
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
85.8%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 8 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+2
86.0%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 2 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 7:51
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+16
85.9%
Michael Allen run for 16 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
86.1%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+36
86.1%
Michael Allen run for 36 yds to the BC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
88.0%
MJ Morris run for 10 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1213% → 16%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.1%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 8 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+15
86.9%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Zay Flowers for 15 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+13
87.1%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 13 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 2
OPP 44
0
86.7%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+1
86.8%
Pat Garwo III run for 1 yd to the NCSt 45Similar
Q1 5:42
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+28
87.0%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 28 yds to the NCSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
86.5%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Joseph Griffin Jr.Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
83.7%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Zay Flowers for 17 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:3385% → 84%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
85.1%
Jordan Houston run for 10 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
85.1%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Terrell Timmons Jr.Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
85.1%
Jordan Houston run for no gain to the NCSt 35Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
84.8%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q1 0:57
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
84.3%
Caden Noonkester punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Jaelen Gill at the BC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3615% → 15%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
84.7%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to George Takacs for 5 yds to the BC 16Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+1
84.5%
Alex Broome run for 1 yd to the BC 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 12
0
84.9%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Jaelen GillSimilar
Q2 14:21
4TH & 9
OWN 12
0
85.0%
Danny Longman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 3:0085% → 84%
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
85.3%
Michael Allen run for 8 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+5
85.4%
Michael Allen run for 5 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
85.4%
MJ Morris pass complete to Darryl Jones for 5 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+3
85.4%
Michael Allen run for 3 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+1
85.1%
Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the BC 38Similar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
84.1%
Caden Noonkester punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4416% → 15%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
83.9%
Pat Garwo III run for 3 yds to the BC 17Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
84.1%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Pat Garwo III for no gain to the BC 17Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
84.5%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Jaelen GillSimilar
Q2 9:37
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+5
85.2%
Danny Longman punt for 55 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 5 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:1685% → 85%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
84.8%
MJ Morris pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 18 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
85.5%
Jordan Houston run for 7 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+26
85.7%
MJ Morris pass complete to Trent Pennix for 26 yds to the BC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+9
85.5%
MJ Morris run for 9 yds to the BC 5Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
85.6%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Darryl JonesSimilar
Q2 8:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
85.2%
MJ Morris pass complete to Jordan Houston for 4 yds to the BC 1Similar
Q2 6:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.5%
MJ Morris run for 1 yd to the BC 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11PUNT
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:2716% → 15%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
84.2%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Joseph Griffin Jr.Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 12
OWN 14
-6
84.9%
Emmett Morehead sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 8Similar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 18
OWN 8
0
85.2%
Danny Longman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the BC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 3:1885% → 85%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
85.2%
Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+12
85.3%
MJ Morris pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 12 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+4
84.9%
Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
85.4%
MJ Morris run for no gain to the BC 21Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+1
85.4%
Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the BC 22Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+9
84.9%
MJ Morris pass complete to Michael Allen for 9 yds to the BC 13Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+30
85.2%
Christopher Dunn 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13INT
8 plays · 46 yds · 0:5214% → 16%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
86.0%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Zay Flowers for 16 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
85.2%
Emmett Morehead run for 1 yd to the BC 42Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+19
86.1%
Emmett Morehead run for 19 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
84.7%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Pat Garwo III for 10 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
83.7%
Emmett Morehead pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
86.0%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the NCSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2086% → 85%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
86.0%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Trent PennixSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
85.9%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 12
OWN 16
0
85.2%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Trent PennixSimilar
Q3 13:34
4TH & 12
OWN 16
+6
84.6%
Caden Noonkester punt for 48 yds , Jaelen Gill returns for 6 yds to the BC 42 Jaelen Gill fumbled, recovered by BC Demarcus JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16FG
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:2387% → 89%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
87.1%
MJ Morris run for 7 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
87.2%
MJ Morris run for 1 yd to the BC 26Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 16
OPP 31
+3
86.8%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 13
OPP 28
0
86.2%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+45
89.1%
Christopher Dunn 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5810% → 23%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.8%
Alex Broome run for 1 yd to the BC 24Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
89.9%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Alex Broome for 8 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
89.3%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Dino Tomlin for 6 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
89.1%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Alex Broome for 9 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+14
88.4%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Zay Flowers for 14 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
88.5%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Taji Johnson for 4 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
87.7%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Dante Reynolds for no gain to the NCSt 35Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+35
76.7%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Zay Flowers for 35 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:4581% → 83%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
81.4%
MJ Morris run for 7 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+3
82.7%
Michael Allen run for 3 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
83.1%
MJ Morris run for 2 yds to the NCSt 47 MJ Morris fumbled, recovered by BC Neto OkpalaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:4024% → 25%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
76.1%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Alex Broome for 2 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+14
77.6%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Zay Flowers for 14 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 20
OPP 45
0
77.5%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Alex BroomeSimilar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 20
OPP 45
+16
77.9%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 16 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 4
OPP 29
0
75.1%
Emmett Morehead pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 4:0181% → 82%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.2%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
81.2%
Jordan Houston run for 11 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
82.5%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
82.2%
MJ Morris pass complete to Jordan Houston for 2 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+12
81.3%
MJ Morris pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 12 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
83.4%
Michael Allen run for 8 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+4
83.5%
Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+1
82.7%
MJ Morris pass complete to Porter Rooks for 1 yd to the BC 44Similar
Q3 0:40
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
81.7%
Caden Noonkester punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jaelen Gill at the BC 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:1622% → 20%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
78.1%
Pat Garwo III run for 1 yd to the BC 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 8
0
78.4%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to George TakacsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 8
+14
79.5%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 14 yds to the BC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
77.4%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-7
77.7%
Emmett Morehead sacked by Drake Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the BC 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 15
0
79.1%
Emmett Morehead run for no gain to the BC 15Similar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 17
OWN 15
0
79.7%
Danny Longman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
86.0%
MJ Morris sacked by Marcus Valdez for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 40 MJ Morris fumbled, recovered by BC Vinny DePalma , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0727% → 23%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
72.8%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Dino Tomlin for 8 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 2
OPP 32
0
70.5%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Dino TomlinSimilar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
73.4%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Taji JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:28
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
77.1%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:2487% → 85%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
86.5%
MJ Morris sacked by Marcus Valdez for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 30Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+5
85.5%
MJ Morris run for 5 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 22
OWN 25
0
84.4%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Jordan HoustonSimilar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 22
OWN 25
0
84.5%
Caden Noonkester punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jaelen Gill at the BC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3020% → 19%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
79.6%
Alex Broome run for 1 yd to the BC 25Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+7
80.0%
Alex Broome run for 7 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
79.8%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Jaelen GillSimilar
Q4 8:34
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
80.7%
Danny Longman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:5787% → 89%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
86.9%
Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 22
OWN 15
0
86.4%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Darryl JonesSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
88.2%
Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
88.3%
MJ Morris pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
89.3%
MJ Morris pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5621% → 17%
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
78.9%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to George Takacs for 4 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+4
78.4%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Pat Garwo III for 4 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
80.0%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Jaelen GillSimilar
Q4 4:41
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
83.2%
Danny Longman punt for 65 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 28PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:5489% → 93%
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
88.9%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the NCSt 9Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+7
88.8%
Jordan Houston run for 7 yds to the NCSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
89.2%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+1
89.0%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the NCSt 19Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+2
93.2%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
93.3%
Caden Noonkester punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jaelen Gill at the BC 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 29TD
14 plays · 69 yds · 2:3313% → 90%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
87.1%
Emmett Morehead run for 3 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
86.9%
Emmett Morehead pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+8
87.8%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to George Takacs for 8 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
86.0%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Alex BroomeSimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+29
86.9%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Dino Tomlin for 29 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
82.3%
Emmett Morehead run for 4 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 6
OPP 25
-6
82.0%
Emmett Morehead sacked by Davin Vann for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 31Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+17
85.8%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to George Takacs for 17 yds to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
82.0%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to Dino TomlinSimilar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
82.0%
Emmett Morehead pass incomplete to George TakacsSimilar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+4
84.3%
Emmett Morehead run for 4 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q4 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
10.1%
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Joseph Griffin Jr. for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 30FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:1332% → 21%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.8%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
21.4%
MJ Morris pass complete to MJ Morris for 2 yds MJ Morris fumbled, recovered by BC Marcus ValdezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 31END OF GAME
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
5.6%
E. Morehead takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:14
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Joseph Griffin Jr. for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK)
-67.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:14
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Thayer Thomas
+18.8
TD · Q3 7:13
Emmett Morehead pass complete to Zay Flowers for 35 yds for a TD, (Connor Lytton KICK)
-11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com