Try the model
WAKE

Wake Forest 21 at NC State 30

NCSU
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Carter-Finley Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreWAKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:06 · Ivan Mora punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Home team on offense+4.0Pregame prior−4.6Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:39: MJ Morris pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 12 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +7.1 pts (now 54%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:11: Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 24 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +8.5 pts (now 61%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:30: MJ Morris pass complete to Darryl Jones for 13 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +10.6 pts (now 57%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:14: MJ Morris pass complete to Darryl Jones for 1 yd for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +12.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:54: Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 29 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +16.6 pts (now 22%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 13:54NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:04NCSU 4th & 11 at WAKE 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    44.5%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:50WAKE 4th & 5 at NCSU 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    52.5%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:30NCSU 4th & 16 at NCSU 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:19NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:06WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:47WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 34, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:18WAKE 4th & 11 at NCSU 41, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.8%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    22.5%−0.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    23.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:01NCSU 4th & 4 at WAKE 33, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.3%−1.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−2.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:12NCSU 4th & 19 at WAKE 37, up 13
    Close callPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−1.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    91.5%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:25WAKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 45, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.7%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:54WAKE 4th & 6 at NCSU 29, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−3.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:10WAKE 4th & 6 at NCSU 34, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%−1.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 10:19WAKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:39NCSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:11WAKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:30NCSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:14NCSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:54WAKE Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0141% → 42%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
41.2%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the NCSt 22Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
41.5%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
41.5%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:54
4TH & 9
OWN 22
+2
41.5%
Shane McDonough punt for 40 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 2 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2INT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:3259% → 58%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
41.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for no gain to the WFrst 40Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+18
41.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Justice Ellison for 18 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
41.6%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
41.7%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-5
41.8%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 0
OPP 45
-24
41.8%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Jakeen Harris return for 24 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3FG
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:5643% → 44%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
42.6%
MJ Morris pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 17 yds to the WFrst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
42.8%
MJ Morris run for 4 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+4
43.3%
MJ Morris run for 4 yds to the WFrst 19Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+4
43.2%
MJ Morris run for 4 yds to the WFrst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-9
43.6%
MJ Morris sacked by Malik Mustapha for a loss of 9 yards to the WFrst 24Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 19
OPP 24
+2
43.6%
MJ Morris run for 2 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 17
OPP 22
+6
43.3%
MJ Morris pass complete to Demarcus Jones II for 6 yds to the WFrst 16Similar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+33
44.2%
Christopher Dunn 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:1056% → 55%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.3%
Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
44.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 12 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
44.4%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 35Similar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+17
45.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 17 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
44.1%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 47Similar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 15
OWN 47
0
44.8%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+10
45.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 10 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
44.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
45.3%
Ivan Mora punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 2:2045% → 45%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
45.2%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the NCSt 8Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 8
-4
45.2%
MJ Morris sacked by Kobie Turner for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 4Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 13
OWN 4
-2
45.0%
MJ Morris run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 2Similar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 15
OWN 2
-1
45.0%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-1 Yards) to the NCSt 1Similar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 16
OWN 1
+11
44.9%
Shane McDonough punt for 39 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 11 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6MISSED FG
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:3456% → 53%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
44.4%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the NCSt 29Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
44.6%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+28
45.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 28 yds to the NCSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
44.6%
Justice Ellison run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 4Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
44.7%
Justice Ellison run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 8Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-9
45.6%
Sam Hartman sacked by Isaiah Moore for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSt 17Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 0
OPP 17
+35
46.8%
Matthew Dennis 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3247% → 46%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
47.0%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Terrell Timmons Jr.Similar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
46.9%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for no gain to the NCSt 20Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
46.3%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q2 14:19
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
45.9%
Caden Noonkester punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0052% → 60%
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.6%
Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
47.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 8 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
47.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 15 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
46.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 4 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+3
46.5%
Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+13
46.8%
Christian Turner run for 13 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
45.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jahmal BanksSimilar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
46.2%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+18
46.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 18 yds to the NCSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 0
OPP 9
+7
44.7%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (7 Yards) to the NCSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.6%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:2643% → 54%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
43.3%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-3
42.5%
MJ Morris run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 26Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 13
OWN 26
+44
41.5%
MJ Morris pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 44 yds to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
46.3%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+16
46.4%
Jordan Houston run for 16 yds to the WFrst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
53.5%
MJ Morris pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 12 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1950% → 61%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
50.2%
Sam Hartman sacked by Drake Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 23Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+18
50.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 18 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
48.4%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-4
48.3%
Sam Hartman sacked by Travali Price and Brandon Cleveland for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 40Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+13
50.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 13 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
48.1%
NC STATE Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
48.1%
Justice Ellison run for 5 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+3
47.8%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+24
39.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 24 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 2:3043% → 57%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
43.3%
Michael Allen run for 12 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
45.1%
MJ Morris pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 11 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
45.7%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+15
45.6%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Evan Slocum) to the WFrst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
46.6%
Michael Allen run for 9 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+4
46.9%
MJ Morris run for 4 yds to the WFrst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
47.2%
Michael Allen run for no gain to the WFrst 13Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
48.6%
MJ Morris run for no gain to the WFrst 13Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+13
56.9%
MJ Morris pass complete to Darryl Jones for 13 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:1942% → 40%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 4 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
57.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Blake WhiteheartSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
58.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
60.0%
Ivan Mora punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:0555% → 56%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
54.6%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
54.3%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+2
55.3%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+7
55.5%
Caden Noonkester punt for 45 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 7 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0946% → 45%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 9 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
53.2%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the WFrst 34Similar
Q3 13:47
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
55.1%
Ivan Mora punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 7:1656% → 80%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
55.8%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the NCSt 21Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
55.8%
MJ Morris pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 7 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+4
55.0%
MJ Morris run for 4 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
56.3%
MJ Morris run for 1 yd to the NCSt 33Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+10
56.1%
Jordan Houston run for 10 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
59.0%
MJ Morris sacked by Tyler Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 40Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+7
57.4%
Jordan Houston run for 7 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+15
59.3%
MJ Morris pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 15 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
61.5%
MJ Morris pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 3 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
62.6%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+10
61.4%
MJ Morris pass complete to Darryl Jones for 10 yds to the WFrst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
63.0%
MJ Morris pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 3 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+20
63.5%
MJ Morris pass complete to Devin Carter for 20 yds to the WFrst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
63.7%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the WFrst 1Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.6%
MJ Morris pass complete to Darryl Jones for 1 yd for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16INT
7 plays · 34 yds · 1:5223% → 21%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.7%
Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+31
77.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 31 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
74.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-1
75.5%
Christian Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 41Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 11
OPP 41
0
77.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 11
OPP 41
-30
78.8%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Cyrus Fagan return for 30 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17FG
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:1481% → 88%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
50
+11
80.6%
Michael Allen run for 11 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
80.9%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Julian GraySimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
81.1%
Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+2
81.0%
MJ Morris pass complete to Porter Rooks for 2 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q3 2:01
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+51
87.8%
Christopher Dunn 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18INT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:5513% → 12%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
86.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 9 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-5
85.4%
Sam Hartman sacked by Drake Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 29Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+13
88.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 13 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
87.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
88.0%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Aydan White return for no gain to the NCSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 3:3391% → 93%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
91.1%
MJ Morris run for 4 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+6
91.6%
MJ Morris pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 6 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
92.1%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
92.8%
Jordan Houston run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 48Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+24
92.7%
MJ Morris pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 24 yds to the WFrst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-7
93.5%
Thayer Thomas sacked by Jasheen Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the WFrst 35 NC STATE Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the WFrst 35Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 17
OPP 35
+8
93.4%
MJ Morris pass complete to Trent Pennix for 8 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 9
OPP 27
-10
94.4%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WFrst 37Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 19
OPP 37
0
94.2%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 19
OPP 37
0
93.3%
Caden Noonkester punt for 36 yds, downed at the WFrst 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20TD
15 plays · 99 yds · 4:167% → 22%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
92.9%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the WFrst 1Similar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
93.0%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the WFrst 1Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+7
93.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 7 yds to the WFrst 8Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+24
93.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 24 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
92.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jahmal BanksSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+10
93.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 10 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
92.8%
Justice Ellison run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 41Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+9
93.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 2
50
0
93.5%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:28
4TH & 2
50
-5
93.6%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (A.T. Perry) to the WFrst 45Similar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 7
OWN 45
+22
93.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 22 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
92.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-4
92.8%
Justice Ellison run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 37Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 14
OPP 37
+8
94.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 8 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+29
78.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 29 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 3:3686% → 94%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
86.0%
MJ Morris pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 8 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+17
88.7%
MJ Morris run for 17 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
89.2%
MJ Morris run for 14 yds to the WFrst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
90.1%
Jack Chambers run for no gain to the WFrst 31Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+22
90.1%
Jordan Houston run for 13 yds to the WFrst 18 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (9 Yards) to the WFrst 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 0
OPP 9
-5
90.7%
NC STATE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 14Similar
Q4 4:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
0
90.6%
MJ Morris run for no gain to the WFrst 14Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
-4
92.6%
MJ Morris run for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 18Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 0
OPP 18
+10
94.1%
MJ Morris run for 10 yds to the WFrst 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22Uncategorized
11 plays · 51 yds · 1:446% → 4%
Q4 2:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
94.2%
Christopher Dunn 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
96.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 13 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
96.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
50
+6
95.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 6 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+6
95.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 6 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
95.6%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
95.6%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+4
95.8%
Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 6
OPP 34
0
96.0%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:1097% → 97%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
97.1%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
97.4%
TEAM run for 5 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+5
97.2%
TEAM run for 5 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:54
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 29 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)
-16.6
TD · Q3 6:14
MJ Morris pass complete to Darryl Jones for 1 yd for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+12.5
TD · Q2 1:30
MJ Morris pass complete to Darryl Jones for 13 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com