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VT

Virginia Tech 21 at NC State 22

NCSU
2022 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2022 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:56 · Shane McDonough punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tucker Holloway at the VTech 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 26Pregame prior+28.6Home team on offense+0.1Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:18: Kaleb Smith 85 Yd pass from Grant Wells (William Ross Kick) — VT win probability +16.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:02: Grant Wells 20 Yd Run (William Ross Kick) — VT win probability +18.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:42: Thayer Thomas 35 Yd pass from MJ Morris (Christopher Dunn Kick) — NCSU win probability +19.3 pts (now 38%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:15: Trent Pennix 7 Yd pass from MJ Morris (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — NCSU win probability +26.5 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 7:38: Thayer Thomas 18 Yd pass from MJ Morris (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — NCSU win probability +29.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10VT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:37NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:53VT 4th & 26 at VT 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:56NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:52VT 4th & 6 at VT 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:34NCSU 4th & 17 at NCSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−0.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:53VT 4th & 5 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:11NCSU 4th & 1 at VT 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    75.5%−1.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:38NCSU 4th & 11 at VT 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    75.1%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:25VT 4th & 6 at VT 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:40NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:13VT 4th & 13 at VT 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−2.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:05NCSU 4th & 17 at VT 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−2.1
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−5.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:29NCSU 4th & 9 at VT 37, down 4
    Close callPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    60.5%−0.3
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:25NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:23VT 4th & 10 at VT 38, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:28NCSU 4th & 12 at NCSU 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−2.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:27VT 4th & 13 at VT 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−3.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:39VT 4th & 4 at VT 10, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%−2.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:35VT 4th & 17 at VT 17, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−4.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3VT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q3 12:51VT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:18VT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:02VT Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:42NCSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:15NCSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    42.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:38NCSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    67.9%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0383% → 83%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
82.8%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Thayer Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 26Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 12
OWN 26
0
82.7%
Jack Chambers pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+10
82.6%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Jordan Houston for 10 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
82.5%
Shane McDonough punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tucker Holloway at the VTech 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 6 yds · 4:2718% → 19%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
82.4%
Malachi Thomas run for 1 yd to the VTech 24Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+6
82.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 6 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+5
82.2%
Wells, Grant pass incomplete to Thomas, Malachi (TEAM), PENALTY NCSTATE offside (Vann, Davin) 5 yards to the VATECH35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH, QB hurry by TEAM, QB hit by TEAM.Similar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
82.0%
Malachi Thomas run for 5 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+5
81.8%
Malachi Thomas run for 5 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-7
81.7%
Grant Wells sacked by Payton Wilson for a loss of 7 yards to the VTech 38Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 17
OWN 38
-5
81.6%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Jesse Hanson) to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 22
OWN 33
-5
81.7%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Parker Clements) to the VTech 28Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 27
OWN 28
+4
81.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 4 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 23
OWN 32
+2
81.4%
Malachi Thomas run for 2 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q1 9:08
4TH & 21
OWN 34
-5
81.4%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Chamarri Conner) to the VTech 29Similar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 26
OWN 29
0
81.3%
Peter Moore punt for 49 yds, downed at the NCSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:5381% → 80%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
81.0%
Jack Chambers pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
80.8%
Jack Chambers run for 3 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+8
80.6%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Jordan Houston for 8 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
80.7%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+8
80.7%
Jack Chambers run for 8 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
80.9%
Jack Chambers pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
80.6%
Jack Chambers run for no gain to the NCSt 44Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
80.2%
Jack Chambers pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
79.9%
Shane McDonough punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tucker Holloway at the VTech 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5320% → 20%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
80.0%
Malachi Thomas run for 1 yd to the VTech 22Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+8
79.8%
Grant Wells run for 8 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
79.4%
Malachi Thomas run for no gain to the VTech 30Similar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 1
OWN 30
-5
79.7%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Keshon Artis) to the VTech 25Similar
Q1 3:52
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
79.8%
Peter Moore punt for 44 yds, downed at the NCSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 2:0680% → 78%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
79.5%
MJ Morris run for 4 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+3
79.5%
MJ Morris run for 3 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 3
OWN 38
-5
79.4%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Chandler Zavala) to the NCSt 33Similar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 8
OWN 33
-9
78.7%
MJ Morris sacked by Jaylen Griffin for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSt 24Similar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 17
OWN 24
0
78.1%
Shane McDonough punt for 31 yds, downed at the VTech 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3223% → 23%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
77.4%
Malachi Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 44Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 11
OWN 44
-5
77.5%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Kaleb Smith) to the VTech 39Similar
Q1 0:39
2ND & 16
OWN 39
0
77.7%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Nick GalloSimilar
Q1 0:27
3RD & 16
OWN 39
+11
77.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 5
50
0
77.4%
Peter Moore punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 46 yds · 5:5478% → 76%
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
78.1%
MJ Morris pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 9 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+10
78.4%
Demarcus Jones II run for 10 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
77.8%
MJ Morris pass complete to Devin Carter for 16 yds Devin Carter fumbled, forced by Mansoor Delane, recovered by NCStSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
78.8%
MJ Morris pass complete to Darryl Jones for 9 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 1
OPP 40
0
78.8%
Demarcus Jones II run for no gain to the VTech 40Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
78.4%
Demarcus Jones II run for no gain to the VTech 40Similar
Q2 11:11
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+3
77.5%
MJ Morris run for 3 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
78.3%
MJ Morris run for no gain to the VTech 37Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-7
78.2%
MJ Morris sacked by Alan Tisdale for a loss of 7 yards to the VTech 44Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 17
OPP 44
+6
76.5%
MJ Morris run for 6 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q2 8:38
4TH & 11
OPP 38
0
75.9%
Shane McDonough punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0525% → 26%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
74.8%
Malachi Thomas run for 2 yds to the VTech 22Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
73.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 3 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-1
73.8%
Grant Wells sacked by Davin Vann and Travali Price for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 24Similar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 6
OWN 24
-10
74.3%
Peter Moore punt for 36 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for a loss of 10 yards to the NCSt 20 Thayer Thomas fumbled, recovered by NCSt Julian Gray NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NCSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 4:2075% → 73%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
75.1%
Julian Gray run for 8 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
75.8%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the NCSt 29Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
74.4%
Jack Chambers run for 1 yd to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
74.8%
Jack Chambers pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
74.4%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 1 yd to the NCSt 31Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+11
73.3%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Devin Carter for 11 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
75.6%
Jordan Houston run for 6 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+3
75.6%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Darryl Jones for 3 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-5
75.2%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Dylan McMahon) to the NCSt 46Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
74.2%
Jack Chambers pass incomplete to Jordan HoustonSimilar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
72.6%
Shane McDonough punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tucker Holloway at the VTech 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 0:2730% → 28%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
70.4%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Johnny Jordan) to the VTech 12Similar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+9
70.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 9 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 6
OWN 21
-5
70.4%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Silas Dzansi) to the VTech 16Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 11
OWN 16
0
70.7%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Kaleb SmithSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 11
OWN 16
-2
71.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 14Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 13
OWN 14
0
71.9%
Peter Moore punt for 29 yds, downed at the VTech 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11DOWNS
11 plays · 25 yds · 0:5575% → 75%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
75.3%
MJ Morris pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 18 yds to the VTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
75.9%
MJ Morris run for 8 yds to the VTech 17Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 2
OPP 17
0
75.8%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+6
74.7%
MJ Morris run for 6 yds to the VTech 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
75.6%
Jack Chambers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-7
74.2%
MJ Morris run for a loss of 7 yards to the VTech 18 MJ Morris fumbled, recovered by NCSt MJ MorrisSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 17
OPP 18
0
71.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 17
OPP 18
+35
75.1%
Christopher Dunn 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 1:3925% → 41%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
75.3%
Grant Wells run for 7 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+10
74.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 10 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+36
73.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 36 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
70.9%
Malachi Thomas run for 6 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
70.7%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Malachi ThomasSimilar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+15
71.9%
Wells, Grant pass incomplete to Wright, Dae'Quan, PENALTY NCSTATE pass interference (Baker-Williams, Tyler) 15 yards to the NCSTATE4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
Q3 12:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
59.0%
Grant Wells 4 Yd Run (William Ross Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:4666% → 61%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
66.0%
MJ Morris run for 3 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
66.1%
Jordan Houston run for no gain to the NCSt 47Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+15
64.5%
MJ Morris pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 15 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
66.3%
MJ Morris pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 1 yd to the VTech 37Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-5
66.1%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Timothy McKay) to the VTech 42Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 14
OPP 42
+5
63.5%
MJ Morris pass complete to Devin Carter for 5 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
64.7%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q3 9:29
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
61.3%
Shane McDonough punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:1140% → 56%
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
60.4%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Silas Dzansi) to the VTech 15Similar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+85
43.7%
Kaleb Smith 85 Yd pass from Grant Wells (William Ross Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4743% → 41%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.2%
MJ Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
42.9%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
41.3%
MJ Morris pass complete to Jordan Houston for 8 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q3 8:25
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
41.4%
Shane McDonough punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Tucker Holloway at the VTech 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:5558% → 59%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
42.2%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Nick GalloSimilar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+23
41.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 23 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
39.5%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Dae'Quan WrightSimilar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
39.5%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Dae'Quan WrightSimilar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
39.9%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Da'Wain LoftonSimilar
Q3 7:23
4TH & 10
OWN 38
-8
41.2%
Peter Moore punt for 33 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 21 Thayer Thomas fumbled, recovered by NCSt Thayer ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5041% → 37%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
40.8%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-2
40.3%
Jordan Houston run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 19Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 12
OWN 19
0
38.2%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 12
OWN 19
0
37.3%
Shane McDonough punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tucker Holloway at the VTech 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:0961% → 85%
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
38.8%
Grant Wells run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 34Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-5
38.9%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Kaden Moore) to the VTech 29Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+50
38.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 50 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
33.3%
Jalen Holston run for 1 yd to the NCSt 20Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
32.9%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Nick GalloSimilar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+20
14.7%
Grant Wells 20 Yd Run (William Ross Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1321% → 38%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.7%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
19.9%
MJ Morris pass complete to Devin Carter for 13 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
20.8%
Delbert Mimms III run for 3 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+8
19.5%
MJ Morris pass complete to Terrell Timmons Jr. for 8 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
18.3%
MJ Morris pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 16 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
37.6%
Thayer Thomas 35 Yd pass from MJ Morris (Christopher Dunn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:3367% → 74%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
32.7%
Grant Wells run for no gain to the VTech 9Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
32.6%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Kaleb SmithSimilar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+20
30.8%
Grant Wells run for 5 yds to the VTech 14 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Personal Foul (Payton Wilson) to the VTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
27.6%
Jalen Holston run for 5 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q4 14:37
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+2
27.7%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 3
OWN 36
-10
26.1%
Grant Wells sacked by Drake Thomas for a loss of 10 yards to the VTech 26Similar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 13
OWN 26
+26
25.8%
Peter Moore punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSTATE 38 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 52 yds · 0:4529% → 55%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
28.5%
MJ Morris pass complete to Jordan Houston for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 8
50
+43
28.1%
MJ Morris pass complete to Terrell Timmons Jr. for 43 yds to the VTech 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
54.5%
Trent Pennix 7 Yd pass from MJ Morris (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2157% → 59%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
43.0%
Jalen Holston run for no gain to the VTech 4Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
41.5%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Dae'Quan WrightSimilar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 10
OWN 4
+6
41.5%
Jalen Holston run for 6 yds to the VTech 10Similar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 4
OWN 10
0
41.2%
Peter Moore punt for 50 yds, downed at the NCSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:3649% → 77%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
49.0%
MJ Morris pass complete to Trent Pennix for 13 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
51.0%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Terrell Timmons Jr.Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
50.8%
MJ Morris pass complete to Trent Pennix for 5 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 5
OPP 42
-5
50.8%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Dylan McMahon) to the VTech 47Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+17
47.1%
MJ Morris pass complete to Devin Carter for 17 yds to the VTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
53.6%
MJ Morris pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 7 yds to the VTech 23Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
50.3%
MJ Morris pass incomplete to Trent PennixSimilar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+5
47.1%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jaylen Griffin) to the VTech 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
77.0%
Thayer Thomas 18 Yd pass from MJ Morris (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:5333% → 31%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
67.0%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Kaleb SmithSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-8
65.5%
Grant Wells sacked by Payton Wilson for a loss of 8 yards to the VTech 16Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 18
OWN 16
-5
67.5%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Dae'Quan Wright) to the VTech 11Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 23
OWN 11
+6
68.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jalen Holston for 6 yds to the VTech 17Similar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 17
OWN 17
0
69.5%
Peter Moore punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26END OF GAME
12 plays · 9 yds · 5:0470% → 92%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
70.2%
MJ Morris run for 1 yd to the NCSt 36Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
71.1%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+7
71.6%
Jordan Houston run for 7 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
76.8%
MJ Morris run for 1 yd to the NCSt 49Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+6
77.3%
Jordan Houston run for 6 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+5
77.5%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-6
81.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the VTech 46Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 16
OPP 46
-5
81.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 49Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 21
OWN 49
-5
92.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:38
Thayer Thomas 18 Yd pass from MJ Morris (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+29.9
TD · Q4 12:15
Trent Pennix 7 Yd pass from MJ Morris (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+26.5
TD · Q3 1:42
Thayer Thomas 35 Yd pass from MJ Morris (Christopher Dunn Kick)
+19.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com